April 13, 2025 08:29 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific TSF Beat on Front-loaded Public Financing Key Takeaways March credit beat a reflection of economic green shoots before major tariff hits: Credit YoY will likely rise further in Q2 on continued fiscal front-loading...In response to increased growth downside risks amid prohibitive US tariffs, Beijing will likely accelerate the issuance and deployment of the announced govt. bond quota for the year in Q2, before introducing a supplementary budget in 2H. ...

North America Economic Research 09 April 2025 Liberation Day mulligan After the financial carnage of Liberation Day, today the president partially climbed Economic and Policy Research down from last week's tariff announcement. While the 10% across-the-board tariff will remain, the scheduled increase in country-specific tariffs has been paused for 90 days for those countries that haven't retaliated. Notably, though, for China, which has retaliated, tariffs will now go to 125%. In static terms, today's moves ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a 60% probability of a US/global recession, with a 40% chance of avoiding it, contingent on potential tariff adjustments by the Trump administration [2][3]. Core Insights - The recent tariff adjustments, particularly the 10% universal tariffs and the 125% tariffs on China, represent a significant economic shock, estimated to impose an $860 billion tax burden, approximately 2.5% of GDP [2]. - The report indicates that the US imports about $450 billion from China, which constitutes 13% of total imports and 1.5% of GDP, highlighting the potential ripple effects on supply chains if trade with China is disrupted [2]. - The ongoing trade policy chaos and substantial losses in equity markets contribute to a challenging economic outlook, with the US likely facing recessionary pressures [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay its first interest rate cut to September, with a terminal rate projected at 3% by the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the reactions of major trading partners, including China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, to the new tariffs, which will significantly influence the evolution of the trade war [2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The report outlines that the effective US average tariff rate has increased to approximately 27%, which could reduce US GDP by 2.8 percentage points and global GDP by 1.4 percentage points [15][28]. - The direct impact of the tariff hike accounts for only 30% of the global growth hit, with trade policy uncertainty being the dominant factor [15][28]. Country-Specific Impacts - Vietnam is projected to experience the most severe GDP contraction at 13%, followed by Taiwan and Thailand at -4.3% each, due to their high export dependence on the US market [22][23]. - Mexico and Canada, while exposed, were spared further tariff hikes, resulting in comparatively lower direct trade impacts, although business sentiment has already been significantly affected [23]. Global Growth Forecasts - The report has downgraded global growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.3% from an earlier estimate of 2.1%, reflecting the adverse effects of the tariff shock [13][28]. - The analysis indicates that emerging markets in Asia are particularly vulnerable to growth risks stemming from US tariff measures, with significant downward revisions expected [22][28].

| | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com Antonio Jaramillo Research Associate Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com Meryl R Thomas, CFA | Foundation +1 212 296-5771 +1 212 761-4438 +1 212 761-4631 | | --- | --- | --- | | | Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0774 +1 212 761-4948 | | M April 8, 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates NVIDIA Corp. as a "Top Pick" with an "Overweight" stock rating and an "Attractive" industry view [8][30]. Core Insights - NVIDIA is expected to benefit from strong demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI and data center segments, despite ongoing tariff concerns [2][21]. - The company is well-positioned to mitigate tariff impacts, with minimal direct effects anticipated on its operations [3][4]. - NVIDIA's stock is trading at approximately 20 times the consensus EPS for 2025, indicating a strong market position compared to competitors [2][21]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - Tariff fears have lessened, but the potential for macroeconomic deterioration remains a concern for investment financing [1]. - The current 10% tariff on hardware materials could rise to 32%, impacting NVIDIA's cost structure, but the company is relatively protected [3][4]. - The complexity of rack-scale products like the GB200 introduces additional tariff implications, potentially leading to a 25% tax on sales [5]. Demand and Market Position - Demand for NVIDIA's products remains robust, driven by the need for inference capacity in AI applications [15][20]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 50.8% in 2025 and 17.64% in 2026, with significant contributions from the data center business [27][28]. - NVIDIA's competitive position is strengthened by the anticipated broader availability of its Blackwell architecture later in 2025 [29]. Financial Projections - The price target for NVIDIA is set at $162.00, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong AI exposure and growth potential [22][27]. - EPS estimates are projected to increase from $2.99 in fiscal year 2025 to $6.18 by fiscal year 2028 [8][33]. - The report highlights a significant upside potential, with a bull case price target of $203.00 and a bear case of $95.00 [32][22].

April 8, 2025 06:01 AM GMT US Tech | North America 1Q25 CIO Survey – Changing the Directionality of Budget Growth Expectations M Bifurcated survey results suggest macro volatility weighing on CIO's near-term IT spending growth expectations, while confidence in core Secular growth drivers (AI/ML) and medium- term IT spending drivers remains intact. Importantly, AI reaffirms positioning among the 'Most Defensible' budget areas. Segmented Results Reflect Bifurcation in Near-Term Indicators; Durability in Mediu ...

April 7, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Technology | Asia Pacific M Idea AI supply chain: Introducing Our Pre-2026 CoWoS Forecast How TSMC decides to allocate its CoWoS capacity in 2026 will be a key catalyst for the global AI supply chain – but that is also tied to tariffs' impact on AI capex demand – both require tracking closely. We expect TSMC to bake in some conservatism for 2026 CoWoS capacity expansion: Around mid-May, TSMC shall make an early decision about its 2026 CoWoS capacity after receiving key custom ...

April 7, 2025 04:19 AM GMT US Equity Strategy | North America M Idea Weekly Warm-up: After the Fall Last Friday showed some signs of capitulation as the Nasdaq reached bear market territory and safety stocks and gold sold off. With recession risks rising and no sign of a Fed or Trump put, investors are left to figure out when to step in. Today, we offer our thoughts. Key Takeaways | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | --- | --- | | Michael J Wilson | | | Equity Strategist | | | M.Wilson@morganstanley.com | +1 21 ...

April 7, 2025 12:32 AM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific Implications of US Reciprocal Tariffs - Who Has the Bargaining Power? No tech hardware companies are immune from US reciprocal tariffs, which likely lead to higher operational costs and end demand slowdown. Amid mounting uncertainty, we expect OEM customers to renegotiate order terms with hardware supply chains and believe those with bargaining power are better off. Key Takeaways Near-term - who absorbs the tariff increase? We have ...

April 6, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Positions of Active Long-only Managers in China/HK Chinese equities saw a moderate US$0.5bn inflow from foreign LOs in March, slowing down from February. The inflow was driven by passive funds at US$2.5bn inflow, while active funds continued outflow at US$2.0bn. Southbound momentum remained strong with 3M25 inflow reaching 56% of the 2024 level. Foreign domiciled funds flow: Chinese domestic funds flow: Continued below. | M April 6, 2025 09:00 ...