Investment Rating - The report reiterates a positive outlook on lithium prices, suggesting that the near-term trough has been reached with higher upside risks than downside risks [1][2]. Core Insights - Lithium prices have stabilized and slightly rebounded by 1% after a significant decline, with a quarter-to-date average selling price (ASP) down by 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The report highlights that many lithium producers are currently operating at a loss, indicating potential offline maintenance or production suspension in the near future [1]. - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrates starting in 2027, which is expected to positively impact long-term supply and demand dynamics by encouraging local processing [1]. Production and Inventory Summary - As of June 12, 2025, the ASP for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) is reported at Rmb60.7k/ton and Rmb65.7k/ton, respectively, showing slight increases from the previous week [2]. - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 4% week-over-week to 18,127 tons, with contributions from various sources: brine (+2%), lepidolite (+4%), spodumene (+5%), and recycled materials (-1%) [2]. - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 133,549 tons, reflecting a 1% increase week-over-week, with downstream players' inventory decreasing by 1% to 40,686 tons [2].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics due to expected demand growth in the DRAM market driven by GDDR7 and LPDDR5X [1][6]. Core Insights - The global memory supply shortage is anticipated to intensify in the second half of 2025, primarily due to rising demand for GDDR7 driven by advancements in AI inference models and edge AI devices [1][5]. - GDDR7 is expected to significantly enhance performance with a 2x increase in data rates, reaching 4.8Gbps per pin, and doubling bandwidth capacity to 192GB/s per device [2]. - The demand for GDDR7 is projected to contribute an additional 4.03 billion Gb to global DRAM demand in 2H25, representing a 24% increase in graphic DRAM demand and a 2.4% increase in overall global DRAM demand [4][7]. Summary by Sections GDDR7 Technology - GDDR7 features advanced PAM3 technology, improving data density by 50% per clock cycle compared to GDDR6, while operating at a lower voltage of 1.1-1.2V [2]. - The architecture of GDDR7 utilizes four 8-bit channels, enhancing parallel processing capabilities and reducing latency for AI workloads [2]. AI Inference Demand - The emergence of AI distillation technology is expected to drive significant memory demand for AI inference, leading to increased adoption of GDDR7 as an alternative to HBM [3]. Market Projections - The report projects GPU demand from DeepSeek to reach 2 million units in 2H25, with each GPU requiring 96GB of DRAM, contributing to the overall demand increase [4]. - The anticipated DRAM content upgrade in Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to add an additional 3.2% to global DRAM demand in 2H25 [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest increase in producer prices, indicating limited signs of abnormal price increases due to tariffs, which may lead to a soft core PCE inflation expectation of 0.14% MoM in May [1][4][5] Core Viewpoints - Producer prices rose by 0.1% MoM in May, following a revised decline in April, suggesting that tariff impacts on prices may not yet be fully realized [1][4] - Core goods prices increased by 0.2% MoM, while core services prices remained flat, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [5][6] - The report anticipates that inflationary pressures are easing, which may provide confidence to Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy adjustments [6][8] Summary by Sections - **PPI Overview**: Producer prices increased by 0.1% MoM in May, with core measures also reflecting a similar increase, although this was softer than expected [4][6] - **Inflation Expectations**: A 0.14% MoM increase in core PCE inflation is expected for May, with year-on-year core PCE potentially rising to 2.6% [5][7] - **Tariff Impact**: The report notes that significant tariffs, such as 50% on steel and aluminum, may affect input goods prices in the coming months, but current data shows limited immediate impact [8][9] - **Airfare Trends**: Airfares are expected to decline by around 1% in May, which is less than previously anticipated, indicating ongoing weakness in travel demand [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's exports to the US, particularly following the Geneva deal, which is expected to provide some relief for direct exports [1][2]. Core Insights - China's containership departures for the US have shown year-on-year growth, with a 0.8% increase in the 15 days ending June 11, approaching previous peak levels [2][15]. - Overall cargo throughput in China weakened in June, with a reported growth of only 0.8% year-on-year for the week ending June 8, down from 4.8% the previous week [3][6]. - Container export volume also moderated to 6.4% year-on-year in the week ending June 6, a decrease from double-digit growth a week prior [3][11]. - The US import bills from China for seaborne routes have stabilized, showing a contraction of -38.9% year-on-year for the week ending June 8, an improvement from -45.2% the previous week [2][9]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - Containership departures for the US recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.8% in the 15 days ending June 11, indicating a rebound in shipments [2][15]. - The Geneva deal is anticipated to enhance direct exports to the US, especially as transshipment becomes less feasible [1][2]. Cargo Throughput - Overall cargo throughput reported by China's Ministry of Transport expanded by only 0.8% year-on-year in the week ending June 8, marking the slowest growth since mid-April [3][6]. - The base effect is expected to further weigh on cargo throughput growth as the month progresses [3]. Container Export Volume - Container export volume reported by PortWatch/IMF moderated to 6.4% year-on-year in the week ending June 6, down from 11.6% the previous week [3][11]. - Container ship arrivals at ASEAN ports appear to be stabilizing, reflecting broader trends in regional shipping dynamics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Emerging Markets (EM), indicating a favorable investment environment due to the depreciation of the USD and supportive local currency bond flows [1][19]. Core Insights - The depreciation of the USD is expected to continue benefiting EM local debt returns, with significant inflows into EM local currency funds observed recently [1][19]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US Treasury auctions as potential indicators for EM performance, particularly in the context of equity and fixed income returns [14][19]. - Structural international positions are not shifting significantly, which is likely to sustain inflows into EM credit and local currency bonds [19][20]. Summary by Sections Emerging Markets Overview - The report discusses the ongoing depreciation of the USD and its implications for EM, suggesting that tariffs-related issues may continue to limit USD strength [1][14]. - Local currency bond flows are expected to be supported by both external and internal factors, with recent performance tracking positively [19]. Asia Focus - In China, the USDCNY is below fixing levels, and upcoming fixings will be crucial for assessing policy bias, with expectations for lower rates from the PBoC [2][32]. - Indonesia is highlighted as a bullish opportunity, with expectations for the IDR to appreciate due to returning portfolio inflows and a favorable economic backdrop [37][38]. - The Philippines is expected to see a gradual decline in yields, with current underperformance likely to be short-lived as supply dynamics improve [42][44]. CEEMEA and LatAm Insights - In Israel, economic fundamentals are becoming more relevant as the conflict nears resolution, with inflation and growth trajectories under scrutiny [3][48]. - Colombia's fiscal rule suspension and labor reform efforts are noted, with macroeconomic data showing resilience despite a cautious outlook on cash positions [3]. - The report maintains a neutral stance on rates in CEEMEA while expressing a positive outlook on duration in Mexico and Brazil [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook with expectations for policy rate cuts to resume in September, following a stable unemployment rate and job growth that suggests a cooling economy [5][6][9]. Core Insights - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with 139k new jobs added, primarily in leisure and hospitality and healthcare sectors, but the labor market is expected to loosen further [5][11][23]. - Economic indicators such as ISM services and manufacturing are below 50, indicating a cooling economy, and the Fed's Beige Book reflects a slowdown in activity and hiring [5][13][15]. - The report anticipates a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts through March of the following year, with the first cut expected in September [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.187% to 4.244%, and would be around 4.6% if not for a drop in the labor force size [7][23]. - Job growth is slowing, with a significant drop in household survey employment by 696k, indicating potential further increases in the unemployment rate [7][11]. Economic Activity - The report highlights a decline in auto sales to 15.65 million (SAAR) in May, suggesting that previous strong sales were due to front-loading ahead of tariffs [16]. - Retail sales data expected to be released will provide further insights into the economic conditions influenced by trade-related uncertainties [16]. Inflation and Price Trends - A benign monthly inflation reading is projected, with core CPI expected at 0.248% MoM in May, indicating minimal impact from tariffs [18][24]. - Producer prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of a 0.5% MoM increase in core goods PPI, suggesting potential upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months [19][31]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The report outlines expectations for the Fed to maintain a "wait-and-see" approach, with rate cuts anticipated as economic conditions evolve [5][6][9]. - Fed officials are expected to discuss the implications of the latest employment data at upcoming meetings, with a focus on the labor market's trajectory [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report lifts the year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6300, indicating a structural bullishness on US large cap stocks with a mid-2026 target of 6500, suggesting high single-digit percentage upside over the next twelve months [1][12]. Core Insights - The report reflects a more constructive fundamental view and an expectation for persistency in the current valuation backdrop, despite high policy volatility [1][5]. - The S&P 500 is expected to hold a forward P/E of 21x, which puts pressure on 2026 EPS growth to meet or exceed consensus estimates [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural shift in earnings contribution from Cyclicals to Growth, which contextualizes historical valuation comparisons [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The initial view for 2025 anticipated a flattish first half followed by improvement, but tariff risks led to a target downgrade earlier in the year [2][11]. - The S&P 500's base case for year-end 2025 is set at 6300, with an increase in full-year index earnings estimate to $261 from $255, although still below the previous projection of $270 [3][14]. Valuation Analysis - The S&P 500 is trading at the higher end of its historic valuation range, with a forward P/E of 21x expected to persist [4][12]. - The report notes that the tariff impacts have been moderated, leading to a less negative EPS impact on the index [26][31]. Sector Performance - The report highlights that Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors are expected to face the most negative progression in 2025, while Financials and Information Technology sectors are critical for stability and growth [34][35]. - Health Care is identified as a wildcard sector, with various market concerns influencing its performance [36]. Earnings and Growth Expectations - The report indicates a positive outlook for earnings growth into 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and a less severe tariff path [28][31]. - Capex spending intentions remain strong despite policy uncertainties, with expectations for continued growth in capital expenditures across sectors [47][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, forecasting a sales increase of 8% year-over-year (YoY) for 2025, amounting to $675.3 billion [5][20][12] Core Insights - April semiconductor sales were reported at $55.0 billion, reflecting an 11.1% month-over-month (MoM) decline, which is below the seasonal expectation of a 10.0% MoM decrease, but aligns with the report's estimate [1][2][8] - The report anticipates a below-seasonal growth in the second half of 2025 due to a tariff-induced correction, despite a strong start to the year [5][20] - The top picks for investment in the semiconductor sector are Analog Devices (ADI) and Texas Instruments (TXN), identified as the most defensive options during economic downturns [5][23][1] Sales Performance - April sales increased by 23.2% YoY, consistent with the report's expectations [2][8] - The three-month rolling average sales from February to April 2025 were $57.0 billion, showing a 20.9% YoY increase [9] Unit and Pricing Trends - Units excluding discretes decreased by 7.8% MoM, which is below the estimate of a 7.3% decline but better than the seasonal expectation of a 9.7% drop [3][14] - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) excluding discretes fell by 3.2% MoM, which is better than the estimated decline of 5.3% but below the seasonal increase of 0.2% [4][16] Future Projections - The report projects that units excluding discretes will grow by 4% YoY and ASPs will also increase by 4% YoY in 2025 [20][12] - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience seasonal growth in the first and second quarters of 2025, followed by below-seasonal growth in the third and fourth quarters [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen Mindray, setting a target price of Rmb330, which implies an expected return of 44.8% from the current price of Rmb232.50 [4]. Core Insights - Market interest in Shenzhen Mindray has significantly increased, with investors focusing on long-term growth drivers and anticipating an inflection point soon [1]. - Mindray is currently trading at 21x FY25E P/E, which is 2x standard deviation below its five-year mean of 37x, indicating potential undervaluation [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from AI-assisted Intelli-digital solutions, which will enhance market share and improve margins [3]. - Recurring businesses accounted for 44% of Mindray's revenue in FY24, with strong growth expected in various segments, including minimal invasive surgery and IVD [6]. Summary by Sections Investor Day Preview - The 2025 Investor Day will focus on AI solutions and the transformation of recurring business, showcasing Mindray's latest progress in its business strategy [2]. - Key presentations will be made by the Head of R&D and General Managers of Intelli-digital solutions [2]. AI and Digital Solutions - Mindray's "equipment + IT + AI" digital intelligence strategy is expected to differentiate it from competitors and capture market share in high-end hospitals [3]. - The company plans to install IT solutions in over 3,000 tier III hospitals in China within three years, significantly increasing its current installations [3]. - Mindray's overseas business is projected to grow at 15%-20% year-over-year, with current market share in overseas markets being less than 3% compared to approximately 20% in China, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. Recurring Business Growth - The minimal invasive surgery segment recorded a CAGR of 46% from 2019-2024 and is expected to maintain over 30% CAGR going forward [6]. - APT Medical and IVD segments also show strong growth trajectories, with expected CAGRs of over 20% and around 20%, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - NEV-PV battery installations increased by 11.2% week-over-week to 11.9 GWh, with a month-to-date increase of 14.5% and a year-to-date increase of 37.3% year-over-year [1] - CATL outperformed in market share, gaining 0.5 percentage points month-to-date, while BYD lost 4 percentage points in the same period [1][3] - Lithium-carbonate prices decreased by 2.7% week-over-week to Rmb 60,400 per ton, reflecting a 9.4% decline month-over-month [1] Summary by Sections Battery Installations - NEV-PV battery installations for the week of May 26 to June 1 reached 11.9 GWh, marking a 29.9% increase month-over-month and a 37.3% increase year-over-year [1][3] - Year-to-date installations for BEV and PHEV increased by 47.3% and 30.6% respectively [1] Market Share Dynamics - CATL's market share rose to 49.1%, while BYD's share fell to 33.6% [3] - CATL's installation growth was 15.8% year-to-date, compared to BYD's 2.5% [3] Cost Trends - LFP cell costs decreased to Rmb 245.2 per kWh, down 1.3% month-over-month and 9.3% year-over-year [2][8] - NCM cell costs fell to Rmb 351.9 per kWh, reflecting a 0.8% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year decline [2][8] - The gross profit margin for LFP cells improved to 15.9%, while NCM cells reached 17.2% [2][8]