Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas operator in China, benefiting from a comprehensive upstream and downstream operational structure, which enhances its risk resilience and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in its oil and gas and new energy segments, with projected revenues of 1,732 billion, 1,895 billion, and 2,001 billion RMB for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7%, 9%, and 6% respectively [1][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.06 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from the current price [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China and ranks third among the world's top oil companies [3][7]. - Its main business segments include oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, sales, refining, and new energy [3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenues of 30,110.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.34% to 1,611.46 billion RMB [7]. - The company's oil and gas production reached 1,759.2 million barrels in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [17]. Oil and Gas Segment - The company's oil and gas exploration and production revenues are highly correlated with international oil prices, which are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing global economic recovery and seasonal demand [1][27]. - The company has a robust resource base, with proven oil and gas reserves totaling 18,352 million barrels as of 2023 [26]. Natural Gas Business - The company is actively developing unconventional natural gas resources and has introduced foreign resources to enhance supply channels [66]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 2,198 billion cubic meters in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [66]. Refining and Chemical Segment - The refining and chemical segment is expected to see improved profitability due to a recovery in product prices and stable demand for refined products [42]. - The company processed 1,399 million barrels of crude oil in 2023, marking a 15.3% increase from the previous year [41]. Sales and Marketing - The company has expanded its marketing efforts, resulting in a significant increase in sales volumes for gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, which totaled 166 million tons in 2023, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [73]. - The company operates approximately 22,800 gas stations, accounting for 20% of the national total, which supports its integrated operational strategy [72].

台积电(TSM) 首发报告 芯片创新关键节点,半导体行业幕后推手 传统周期叠加 AI 需求,晶圆代工有望迎来量价齐升:生成式 AI 的 发展驱动算力芯片需求,与此同时消费电子的更新周期有望受益于 端侧 AI 落地缩短。算力芯片方面,英伟达的 H 系列及未来的 B 系 列,AMD 的 MI300 系列等 GPU 算力芯片以及谷歌、AWS 等云厂商自 研的 ASIC 芯片均由台积电代工;终端消费产品方面,2024H2 公司 重要客户苹果及高通即将推出下一代智能手机、笔记本电脑等消费 电子产品中的处理器均采用台积电先进制程代工。AI 算力芯片+终 端消费产品需求有望带动台积电 3nm/5nm 先进制程芯片下半年的出 货量分别实现同比增长 56.5%/30.3%,2024 年底台积电先进制程 ASP 有望提升 5-10%。 先进封装产能未来两年有望连续翻倍:摩尔定律趋近极限后通过 增加晶体管数量带来提升芯片性能的方式收效甚微,未来先进封装 解决方案将继续提升芯片互联密度,台积电也将持续受益于 AI 带 来的算力芯片更高的存算比需求。我们预计 2024/2025/2026 年底 CoWoS 封装产能有望达到 3.5/5 ...

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 上周美国总统选举首次辩论上拜登表现不佳，被川普打中痛处。媒体认为这是川 普一边倒的胜利，相应地提高了川普在 11 月份胜选的概率，因此对市场投资有一 些影响。川普的政策主张是加关税以及降低企业所得税，这样带来的后果是市场 普遍以为川普上台之后，因为加关税的原因会导致通胀上升，从而会影响联储降 息的节奏。可能是这个原因，导致美国十年期国债利率飙升至 4.46，为近期的高 点。 第二个事件是在 7 月 1 日，美国最高法院裁定，总统对"官方行为"享有豁免 权，几乎保证了川普关于 1 月 6 日国会山骚乱案不会在今年总统大选前开庭审 理，此举基本扫平川普选举的所有障碍。 经济数据 第一个数据是，上周公布了一季度 GDP 的年化季环比终值为 1.4%，较初值有 0.1% 的上修；预计二季度大概会升到 2%。一季度经济放缓主要是由进口增加和商业 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with a focus on its advancements in AI and network technology [9]. Core Insights - Tencent has upgraded its self-developed high-performance computing network, Starry Sky Network 2.0, which has improved communication efficiency by 60% and enhanced large model training efficiency by 20% [9]. - The company is set to launch 35 new mobile games in July, with 21 already scheduled, indicating a strong product pipeline [9]. - Tencent has initiated the "Exploration Plan 2024," aimed at leveraging technology to support cultural heritage, showcasing its commitment to social value investment [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 34,537 billion HKD, with a current share price of 369 HKD [9]. - The total share capital is 9.355 billion shares, with a book value per share of 89.7 HKD [9]. Product Development - The upgraded Starry Sky Network 2.0 supports over 10,000 cards and is designed to enhance AI model training efficiency [9]. - Tencent has three new game products scheduled for release in July, including "Need for Speed: Unbound" and "World Awakening" [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Exploration Plan 2024" focuses on six cultural heritage themes and aims to gather digital solutions to promote cultural transmission [9]. - Tencent Classroom will cease operations on October 1, 2024, as part of a strategic adjustment in response to industry trends [9].

【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 197.88 美元 市值 6310.79 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 | 马斯克:特斯拉 FSD V12.4.2 正在内部测试阶段 | | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 马斯克最近简要介绍了全自动驾驶 FSD V12.4.2 的情况。据马斯克称:" | 12.4.2 | | 更加流畅。挑战在于在提高乘坐舒适度的同时保持高安全性。该版本明天将进入 | | | 内部测试阶段。" 一位 X 用户询问周末是否有 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 8.75, implying a 25% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company's profitability structure is steadily improving, with gas sales contribution increasing to 48.7% while connection revenue contribution declines to 10.8% [2] - Gas sales volume grew 6.2% YoY to 41.7 billion cubic meters, with average gross margin per cubic meter increasing 19% to RMB 0.50 [2] - Value-added services revenue grew 5.8% to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit up 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [2] - Comprehensive energy business achieved breakthrough with total signed installed capacity reaching 221.6MWH, including 112.7MWH of commercial and industrial user-side energy storage [2] Financial Performance - FY23/24 revenue declined 11.5% YoY to HKD 81.41 billion, mainly due to weak real estate market and lower LPG sales [2] - Gross margin improved 0.8 percentage points to 13.9%, driven by better gas sales margins [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at HKD 4.29 billion after excluding one-off items [2] - Operating cash flow reached record high of HKD 11.34 billion, with free cash flow increasing HKD 1.77 billion to HKD 4.29 billion [2] Future Outlook - Gas sales gross margin expected to further improve as more cities implement upstream-downstream price linkage mechanisms [2] - Revenue forecast at HKD 85.9/89.2/92.2 billion for FY24/25/26/27, with net profit of HKD 4.3/4.8/5.0 billion [2] - Target price of HKD 8.75 implies 11x FY24/25 PE, maintaining Buy rating [2] Industry Analysis - The company benefits from natural gas being a key transitional energy in China's "dual carbon" goals [2] - As one of China's largest gas companies, it is well-positioned to capture incremental gas sales growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's mobile game "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has been removed from several Android app stores due to contract expiration, impacting its distribution [2]. - The game has performed exceptionally well in the iOS market, ranking first in downloads since its pre-download launch on May 20, with over 4 million downloads in May alone [2]. - Tencent's mobile gaming revenue increased by 12% in May, driven by the success of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and other titles [2]. - Tencent's esports division is expanding its international cooperation network, launching a global esports exchange program starting in August in regions like Saudi Arabia, France, and Japan [2]. - In June, 104 domestic online games received approval, including Tencent's "Rock Kingdom: World," which is currently in development [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent Holdings has a market capitalization of HKD 35,764 billion and a total share capital of 9.362 billion shares [2]. - The stock price is currently at HKD 382, with a 52-week high of HKD 400.2 and a low of HKD 256.8 [2]. Gaming Performance - "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has surpassed revenue records, achieving over USD 100 million in just 10 days post-launch, ranking 8th in revenue [2]. - The game has outperformed "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" in terms of revenue growth [2]. Esports Development - Tencent esports is set to host a series of international exchange events aimed at fostering collaboration within the global esports community [2]. Regulatory Updates - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 104 games in June, including Tencent's upcoming title [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 49.14% from the current price of HKD 22.8 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was USD 460 million, a year-on-year decline of 27.1%, but a slight increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations of USD 470 million. The semiconductor industry is gradually recovering, with capacity utilization and wafer ASP still at low levels. The gross margin was 6.4%, down 25.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The growth in the company's business this quarter was primarily driven by demand for CIS logic products and power management products, with revenues increasing by 63.8% and 15.9% year-on-year, reaching USD 60 million and USD 100 million, respectively. However, power devices and embedded business revenues declined by 38.4% and 50.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 140 million and USD 120 million, respectively [1]. - The company expects wafer ASP to benefit from a rebound in demand for CIS, BCD, and certain embedded and power devices, anticipating a price increase of 5-10% starting in H2 2024. The projected wafer ASP for 2024-2026 is expected to reach USD 405, USD 450, and USD 530, representing year-on-year changes of -23.8%, +11.1%, and +17.8%, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - The company's Q1 2024 net profit was USD 31.8 million, a year-on-year decline of 79.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.2%, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations of USD 38.38 million. The guidance for Q2 revenue is between USD 470 million and USD 500 million, with a midpoint indicating a 5.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The overall capacity utilization for the quarter was 91.7%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 7.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The 8-inch wafer capacity utilization reached 100.3%, while the 12-inch capacity utilization was at 84.2% [1]. - The company’s capital expenditure in Q1 2024 increased by 39.7% year-on-year to USD 300 million, with USD 200 million allocated to Huahong Manufacturing [1].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 6 月 25 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 | | 李倩 | 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 | | +852-25321539 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai. ...

Vanguard 7.38% 截 至12月31日止财政年度 22年历史 23年历史 24年预测 25年预测 26年预测 总营业收入（美元百万元） 116,609 134,902 159,010 179,865 200,584 变动 -1.12% 15.69% 17.87% 13.12% 11.52% GAAP净利润 23,200 39,098 51,558 60,147 68,584 摊薄每股盈利 8.6 14.9 19.8 23.4 26.9 变动 -37.65% 73.21% 33.34% 17.84% 15.18% 基于501.7美元的市盈率（估） 58.4 33.7 25.3 21.5 18.6 每股派息（美元） 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 股息现价比 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 来源：公司资料，第一上海预测 来源：彭博 季度业绩摘要：公司 24Q1 总收入 364.6 亿美元，同比增长 27.3%， 低于公司上季度指引中值的 367.5 亿美元，但高于彭博一致预期的 361.3 亿美元。1）Family of Apps 收入 360.2 亿美元，其中广告 ...