| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 | | 李倩 | 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 | | +852-25321539 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | 政治事件 | | | 第一个是法国的第二轮选举极右派没有获得执政权，对欧洲的股票是一个好消 息，因为对于股市而言，平 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - Tencent's new game "Apex Warriors 2" was launched on July 6, 2024, allowing Android users immediate download, while iOS users are still awaiting access [3]. - The game features a 5V5 hero shooting format and offers special benefits for returning players, allowing them to redeem previous in-game purchases [3]. - Tencent showcased its advancements in AI large models at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, emphasizing its leadership in the domestic AI model landscape [3]. - The company has initiated a significant share buyback program, repurchasing 10.63 million shares for a total of 4 billion HKD from July 2 to July 5, 2024 [3]. Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 35,380 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 9.355 billion [3]. - The stock price is currently at 378 HKD, with a 52-week high of 400.2 HKD and a low of 256.8 HKD [3]. - The book value per share is reported at 89.7 HKD [3]. Industry Developments - Tencent's large model technology is becoming a core driver for various industries, with significant advancements in computational power and efficiency [3]. - The report highlights ten trends in AI development, indicating that large models are evolving to support human intelligence and enhance interaction capabilities [3].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 251.52 美元 市值 8021.48 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk FSD v12.4.3 正在向部分客户推出 7 月 4 日,Teslascope 表示,已确认特斯拉将开始推出 FSD v12.4.3,而非此前 原定的 v12.4.2。马斯克上周表示,v12.4.2 版本被暂停推送是因为该版本减少 了干预,但驾驶平稳性却受到影响,正常驾驶的训练不充足。FSD 用户 Dave Lee 收到了 v12.4.3,并分享了有关新软件的多个细节,他特别指出,新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting "ancient method gold" in China, holding a market share of 2.0% in the ancient method gold jewelry market and 0.6% in the overall gold jewelry market as of 2023 [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.265 billion to 3.180 billion, a CAGR of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. Gross profit rose from 521 million to 1.332 billion, with a CAGR of 59.8%, and net profit surged from 114 million to 416 million, reflecting a CAGR of 91.0% [1]. - Laopuhuang operates 33 stores across mainland China and Hong Kong, targeting high-end consumers in top luxury shopping centers [20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized for its craftsmanship, inheriting traditional techniques from the Qing Dynasty, including flower wire inlay and gold-silver techniques, which are classified as national intangible cultural heritage [5]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its exclusive use of a fixed-price model for gold jewelry, which positions it as a premium brand despite not being significantly more expensive than competitors when comparing gold weight to price [8][22]. Market Position - The company has successfully captured a growing consumer interest in gold jewelry, particularly as consumers shift from diamond-set luxury items to gold due to rising gold prices and a preference for safer investments [12]. - In the first half of 2024, Laopuhuang's sales surpassed those of four major international luxury jewelry brands in select high-end malls, indicating a strong acceptance among affluent consumers [12]. Future Plans - Laopuhuang plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, over the next two years [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas operator in China, benefiting from a comprehensive upstream and downstream operational structure, which enhances its risk resilience and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in its oil and gas and new energy segments, with projected revenues of 1,732 billion, 1,895 billion, and 2,001 billion RMB for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7%, 9%, and 6% respectively [1][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.06 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from the current price [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China and ranks third among the world's top oil companies [3][7]. - Its main business segments include oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, sales, refining, and new energy [3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenues of 30,110.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.34% to 1,611.46 billion RMB [7]. - The company's oil and gas production reached 1,759.2 million barrels in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [17]. Oil and Gas Segment - The company's oil and gas exploration and production revenues are highly correlated with international oil prices, which are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing global economic recovery and seasonal demand [1][27]. - The company has a robust resource base, with proven oil and gas reserves totaling 18,352 million barrels as of 2023 [26]. Natural Gas Business - The company is actively developing unconventional natural gas resources and has introduced foreign resources to enhance supply channels [66]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 2,198 billion cubic meters in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [66]. Refining and Chemical Segment - The refining and chemical segment is expected to see improved profitability due to a recovery in product prices and stable demand for refined products [42]. - The company processed 1,399 million barrels of crude oil in 2023, marking a 15.3% increase from the previous year [41]. Sales and Marketing - The company has expanded its marketing efforts, resulting in a significant increase in sales volumes for gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, which totaled 166 million tons in 2023, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [73]. - The company operates approximately 22,800 gas stations, accounting for 20% of the national total, which supports its integrated operational strategy [72].

台积电(TSM) 首发报告 芯片创新关键节点,半导体行业幕后推手 传统周期叠加 AI 需求,晶圆代工有望迎来量价齐升:生成式 AI 的 发展驱动算力芯片需求,与此同时消费电子的更新周期有望受益于 端侧 AI 落地缩短。算力芯片方面,英伟达的 H 系列及未来的 B 系 列,AMD 的 MI300 系列等 GPU 算力芯片以及谷歌、AWS 等云厂商自 研的 ASIC 芯片均由台积电代工;终端消费产品方面,2024H2 公司 重要客户苹果及高通即将推出下一代智能手机、笔记本电脑等消费 电子产品中的处理器均采用台积电先进制程代工。AI 算力芯片+终 端消费产品需求有望带动台积电 3nm/5nm 先进制程芯片下半年的出 货量分别实现同比增长 56.5%/30.3%,2024 年底台积电先进制程 ASP 有望提升 5-10%。 先进封装产能未来两年有望连续翻倍:摩尔定律趋近极限后通过 增加晶体管数量带来提升芯片性能的方式收效甚微,未来先进封装 解决方案将继续提升芯片互联密度,台积电也将持续受益于 AI 带 来的算力芯片更高的存算比需求。我们预计 2024/2025/2026 年底 CoWoS 封装产能有望达到 3.5/5 ...

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 上周美国总统选举首次辩论上拜登表现不佳，被川普打中痛处。媒体认为这是川 普一边倒的胜利，相应地提高了川普在 11 月份胜选的概率，因此对市场投资有一 些影响。川普的政策主张是加关税以及降低企业所得税，这样带来的后果是市场 普遍以为川普上台之后，因为加关税的原因会导致通胀上升，从而会影响联储降 息的节奏。可能是这个原因，导致美国十年期国债利率飙升至 4.46，为近期的高 点。 第二个事件是在 7 月 1 日，美国最高法院裁定，总统对"官方行为"享有豁免 权，几乎保证了川普关于 1 月 6 日国会山骚乱案不会在今年总统大选前开庭审 理，此举基本扫平川普选举的所有障碍。 经济数据 第一个数据是，上周公布了一季度 GDP 的年化季环比终值为 1.4%，较初值有 0.1% 的上修；预计二季度大概会升到 2%。一季度经济放缓主要是由进口增加和商业 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with a focus on its advancements in AI and network technology [9]. Core Insights - Tencent has upgraded its self-developed high-performance computing network, Starry Sky Network 2.0, which has improved communication efficiency by 60% and enhanced large model training efficiency by 20% [9]. - The company is set to launch 35 new mobile games in July, with 21 already scheduled, indicating a strong product pipeline [9]. - Tencent has initiated the "Exploration Plan 2024," aimed at leveraging technology to support cultural heritage, showcasing its commitment to social value investment [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 34,537 billion HKD, with a current share price of 369 HKD [9]. - The total share capital is 9.355 billion shares, with a book value per share of 89.7 HKD [9]. Product Development - The upgraded Starry Sky Network 2.0 supports over 10,000 cards and is designed to enhance AI model training efficiency [9]. - Tencent has three new game products scheduled for release in July, including "Need for Speed: Unbound" and "World Awakening" [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Exploration Plan 2024" focuses on six cultural heritage themes and aims to gather digital solutions to promote cultural transmission [9]. - Tencent Classroom will cease operations on October 1, 2024, as part of a strategic adjustment in response to industry trends [9].

【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 197.88 美元 市值 6310.79 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 | 马斯克:特斯拉 FSD V12.4.2 正在内部测试阶段 | | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 马斯克最近简要介绍了全自动驾驶 FSD V12.4.2 的情况。据马斯克称:" | 12.4.2 | | 更加流畅。挑战在于在提高乘坐舒适度的同时保持高安全性。该版本明天将进入 | | | 内部测试阶段。" 一位 X 用户询问周末是否有 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 8.75, implying a 25% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company's profitability structure is steadily improving, with gas sales contribution increasing to 48.7% while connection revenue contribution declines to 10.8% [2] - Gas sales volume grew 6.2% YoY to 41.7 billion cubic meters, with average gross margin per cubic meter increasing 19% to RMB 0.50 [2] - Value-added services revenue grew 5.8% to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit up 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [2] - Comprehensive energy business achieved breakthrough with total signed installed capacity reaching 221.6MWH, including 112.7MWH of commercial and industrial user-side energy storage [2] Financial Performance - FY23/24 revenue declined 11.5% YoY to HKD 81.41 billion, mainly due to weak real estate market and lower LPG sales [2] - Gross margin improved 0.8 percentage points to 13.9%, driven by better gas sales margins [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at HKD 4.29 billion after excluding one-off items [2] - Operating cash flow reached record high of HKD 11.34 billion, with free cash flow increasing HKD 1.77 billion to HKD 4.29 billion [2] Future Outlook - Gas sales gross margin expected to further improve as more cities implement upstream-downstream price linkage mechanisms [2] - Revenue forecast at HKD 85.9/89.2/92.2 billion for FY24/25/26/27, with net profit of HKD 4.3/4.8/5.0 billion [2] - Target price of HKD 8.75 implies 11x FY24/25 PE, maintaining Buy rating [2] Industry Analysis - The company benefits from natural gas being a key transitional energy in China's "dual carbon" goals [2] - As one of China's largest gas companies, it is well-positioned to capture incremental gas sales growth [2]