Salesforce（CRM） 更新报告 买入 2024年6月6日 盈利 稳健增长，但营收增长指 引乏力 罗凡环  FY2 5Q1 收 入 低 于 市 场 预 期 ： FY2025Q1 公 司 实 现 收 入 91.3 亿 美 元 852-25321962 （YoY+11%,CC+11%），低于彭博一致预期的91.7亿美元，由于专业服务的持续压 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 力、一些许可证收入的波动和持续的审慎购买环境导致收入增长不及预期。GAAP 经营利润率为 18.7%，Non-GAAP 营业利润率 32.1%。GAAP 净利润 15.3 亿美元 李京霖 （YoY+670%）,GAAP净利润率达16.8%（YoY+14.4%）,Non-GAAP净利润24.1亿美 852-25321539 元（YoY+43.8%）,均超过彭博一致预期。经营数据方面，RPO 达 539 亿 （YoY+15%），cRPO 264 亿（YoY+10%）,主要受缓慢的需求环境和销售延长的影 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 响。财务方面，公司Q1经营现金流62.5亿美 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 23.4, indicating a potential upside of 33.4% from the current stock price of HKD 17.58 [3][4]. Core Views - The company has successfully completed a placement of 285 million shares, raising approximately HKD 4.9 billion, which will be used to improve its capital structure and reduce its debt ratio [1][2]. - Following the share placement, the company's debt ratio has decreased to 65%, aligning with its target to lower the debt ratio from 66% in 2023 [2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 39.6 billion in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit decreased by 42% to RMB 3.756 billion [2]. - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year within 5-10 years, with a projected production of 140 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company recorded a revenue of RMB 118.434 billion in 2023, a decrease of 23% from the previous year, with a forecasted revenue of RMB 127.806 billion for 2024, representing an 8% increase [5][6]. - Net profit for 2023 is projected at RMB 17.779 billion, with an expected increase to RMB 18.410 billion in 2024 [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 2.38 for 2024, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.96 by 2026 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The overall coal market supply and demand are expected to remain stable with a slight easing, leading to a minor decrease in coal prices compared to 2023 [3]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from the integration of its revival projects and the recovery of production in its Australian and Inner Mongolia bases [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its production capacity through both internal development and external acquisitions, with significant projects in Xinjiang and Shanxi expected to come online in the coming years [2][3]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves, including the recent capital raised, to support its strategic development goals [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics (1070) with a target price of 7.00 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant performance improvement driven by breakthroughs in mid-to-high-end products and multi-business collaboration, with overall revenue for 2023 reaching 789.9 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [2]. - The company's global television shipment volume increased by 6.2% to 25.26 million units in 2023, with a notable growth in shipments of 65 inches and above, which rose by 35.3% to 621 thousand units [2]. - The internet business has emerged as a second growth curve, with revenue increasing by 27.6% year-on-year to 18.64 billion HKD, contributing positively to overall profitability [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 71,351 million HKD, with a forecasted increase to 78,986 million HKD in 2023 and projected growth to 84,554 million HKD in 2024 [3]. - Net profit for 2022 was 447 million HKD, expected to rise to 744 million HKD in 2023 and further to 1,111 million HKD in 2024 [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 803 million HKD, with a significant growth rate of 14.0% [3]. Business Performance - The report indicates that the television business has outperformed the overall market, with a revenue increase of 7.6% to 48.63 billion HKD despite a general decline in the television market [2]. - The domestic market's revenue grew by 5.4% to 16 billion HKD, with market share increasing to 18.1% [2]. - The company's operational efficiency improved, with an overall expense ratio decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 66.4% [2]. Future Projections - The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 846 billion HKD, 931 billion HKD, and 1,000 billion HKD respectively, with net profit forecasts of 1111 million HKD, 1481 million HKD, and 1690 million HKD [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with a focus on high-end product categories contributing positively to gross margins [2].

个股 SASS 公司最近的遭遇的一些短期的逆风，我们也认为要把它放在一个更长期的时间跨 度内看：它们在过去已经涨得非常多了，估值也不算便宜。在这种情况下，对它们的预 期比较饱满的时候，就不太承受得了短期的业绩逆风。但是考虑到它们在各自的细分 赛道当中有着长期的相对垄断地位，尤其是销售渠道和安装基数，还是具备一定的投 资价值的。当股价超跌之后的话，还是值得考虑适当的介入。 5 月 20 到 5 月 26 号这一周，特斯拉 Model3 在国内的上险量高达 5400 台，到达了今 年到目前为止周销量的最高点。我们对特斯拉的产品竞争力仍是长期看好。路遥知马 力，虽然需要很长的时间来让客户们感知到他们的产品竞争力，但是这个方向还是确 定的。 - 2 - 本报告不可对加拿大、日本、美国地区及美国国籍人士发放 Google 最近开始传言在云部门进行大规模裁员。我们认为 Google 做云计算的基础设 施并不是一个非常性感的业务。加上它的搜索业务也面临一些不确定性，所以我们整 体对这家公司并不是特别看好。 第一上海 宏观经济评论 本报告由第一上海证券有限公司("第一上海")编制，仅供机构投资者一般审阅。未经第一上海 事先明 ...

高途（GOTU.US） 更新报告 买入 2024年6月3日 营收利润超公司指引，长期增长动力强劲 但玉翠  FY24Q1 业绩概览：截止 24 年 3 月 31 日，公司 FY24Q1 同比 +852-25321539 + 33.9%至 9.47 亿人民币（下同），高于此前公司业绩指引（9.08- 9.28亿元）。Non-GAAP经营利润-0.62亿元，去年同期为盈利1.1 亿 Tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 元；Non-GAAP 净利润为 0.03 亿元，去年同期 1.3 亿元。截至至 主要资料 F Y2024Q1，公司在现金储备为38亿元，无有息负债。  K12 业务实现高增长，现金收入增速超 70%：分业务看， 行业 教育 FY23Q1 公司非学科培训及高中业务占比超 70%，占据主要地位，现金 股价 5.7美元 收 入同比超过 35%，其中非学科培训业务现金收入同比超过 100%，传 目标价 9.5美元 统业务维持高两位数增长。成人及大学生业务收入占比接近 20%，现 (+67%) 金收入增速恢复至同比+30%。排除续班错期等一次性影响后，可比口 径下现金收款同比超7 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年6月4日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 特斯拉准备在中国注册 FSD Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 据路透社消息人士透露，特斯拉终于准备在中国注册其 FSD（全自动驾驶）。公司 李倩 力争在今年晚些时候开始推出该技术，一旦特斯拉成功向中国工业和信息化部 (M 852-25321539 IIT) 注册FSD，将能够在中国的公共道路上开始内部测试，此后将能够开始向中 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 国客户提供FSD功能。除了购买 FSD套件外，客户还可以选择按月订阅模式，即 陈晓霞 每月约 98 美元的价格订阅FSD。Automotive Foresight 董事总经理张豫表示， 852-25321956 在中国部署 FSD 还将迫使其他电动汽车初创公司加快研发速度。 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 特斯拉介绍了FSD（监督）客户体验 行业 汽车 特斯拉在 X 上分享了多段 FSD ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **$211.80**, representing a **41% upside** from the current price of **$149.72** [2][3] Core Views - The domestic business is in a positive cycle, with strong growth in online retail and e-commerce sales in Q1, driven by low-price positioning and efficient operations [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, continues to grow, with global sales increasing sequentially and significant progress in reducing losses [9] - The company's advertising efficiency gives it an advantage over competitors, and the competitive landscape in the grocery business is easing, driving both average order value and profitability [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to reach **4,582/6,221/7,681 billion yuan**, with operating profits of **1,352/1,856/2,334 billion yuan** [2] - Non-GAAP EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **96.2/131.8/165.3 yuan per ADS** [2] - Q1 2024 revenue reached **868.12 billion yuan**, a **131% YoY increase**, with online marketing services contributing **424.56 billion yuan** (+56% YoY) and transaction services contributing **443.56 billion yuan** (+327% YoY) [36] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was **259.75 billion yuan**, a **275% YoY increase**, with an operating margin of **29.9%** and an adjusted operating margin of **32.9%** [36] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was **279.98 billion yuan**, a **246% YoY increase**, with a net margin of **32.3%** [36] Operational Highlights - The company's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments stood at **2,421 billion yuan** at the end of Q1 2024, with **555.92 billion yuan** in cash and equivalents [36] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was **210.67 billion yuan** [36] - Marketing expenses in Q1 2024 were **234.11 billion yuan**, accounting for **27.0%** of revenue, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive quarter [36] - R&D expenses in Q1 2024 were **29.10 billion yuan**, a **16% YoY increase**, accounting for **3.4%** of revenue [36] Industry and Competitive Position - The domestic e-commerce industry remains challenging due to intense competition and market saturation, but the company maintains a leading position in its core business [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, is showing strong growth, with efforts to optimize logistics and reduce costs, including increasing the proportion of sea freight [9] Valuation and Forecasts - The company's enterprise value is estimated at **3,034.806 billion yuan**, with a market capitalization of **3,152.170 billion yuan** [29] - The target price of **$211.80** is based on a **20% discount rate** and reflects strong growth prospects in both domestic and international markets [29]

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for BYD (1211) with a target price of 276 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 206.6 HKD [2][4][6]. Core Insights - BYD's Q1 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 124.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 21.9%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point year-on-year growth, despite the impact of a new price war in the automotive industry [2][4]. - The company launched several lower-priced "Honor Edition" models to rapidly expand market share, which negatively affected profitability but helped maintain overall vehicle gross margins [2][4]. - BYD's total vehicle sales reached 30.2 million units in Q1, a 46% year-on-year increase, with plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles also showing significant growth [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 723.8 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 34.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [6]. - The report highlights a decrease in average vehicle price, which is expected to stabilize as higher-priced models are introduced, leading to improved per-vehicle profit margins in subsequent quarters [2][4]. - The company anticipates achieving historical high sales of 3.6 million units for the year, driven by the launch of new models and increased international sales [2][4]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD's strategy includes enhancing its high-end brand presence and increasing the proportion of international sales, which is expected to contribute positively to net profit margins [2][4]. - The introduction of the DM5.0 platform is expected to optimize vehicle efficiency, with a fuel consumption reduction to 2.9L per 100 km and a maximum driving range of 2100 km [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming model launches in maintaining competitive advantage and driving future growth [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13, representing a potential upside of 32.9% from the current price of HKD 9.78 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and continues to benefit from a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. Revenue and profit are stable, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 4.1% to HKD 26.8 billion in 2023. The gross margin slightly decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 32.1% due to high costs in the first half of the year, but improved in the second half [2][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive earnings trend, with projected net profits of HKD 6.6 billion, HKD 7.3 billion, and HKD 7.8 billion for 2024-2026. The company has a stable dividend payout ratio of 49% and a low net debt-to-equity ratio of 13.3% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company's revenue from float glass, automotive glass, and architectural glass was HKD 17.5 billion, HKD 6 billion, and HKD 3.3 billion, respectively. The gross margins for these segments were 32.1%, 34.8%, and 34.8% [2][5]. - The company reported a net profit of HKD 5.4 billion for 2023, with a significant increase of 50% in the second half of the year [2][6]. - The company’s cash position is strong, with HKD 3.4 billion in cash on hand, supporting its high dividend capability [2][5]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand situation in the industry is expected to improve marginally, with a forecasted balance in the float glass market as new capacity additions slow down and maintenance activities increase. The report anticipates a stable recovery in glass prices driven by policy stimuli in the real estate sector [2][6]. - The report projects that the average price of float glass will see a slight increase in the first quarter of 2024, with expectations of stabilization and recovery in the second half of the year [2][5].