Meta Platforms（META） 更新报告 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 季度业绩摘要及点评 经营利润同比+58% 资料来源：公司资料，第一上海整理 我们认为公司业绩的提升将持续：1）ARPU 持续增长，由于手机操作系统个人隐私 保护政策原因，广告预算向高 ROI 领域集中。同时公司的 Advantage+平台利用 AI 技术提升广告主 ROI。2）Reels 的货币化进展顺利，广告展示量大幅提升。3）公 司长期资本开支增长支持 GenAI 模型及应用建设，货币化潜力较高。 第一上海证券有限公司 2024 年 8 月 图表 2:Facebook ARPU（美元）与 DAP（十亿） 图表 3: 广告单价与曝光率趋势 广告量价齐升持续，Meta AI 初显雄心 Quest 3 销量超预期 AI 方面，本季度公司发布了由 4050 亿参数的 Llama 3.1 模型支持的 Meta AI 新版 本，其货币化尝试主要集中在短视频及广告内容的算法推荐；Meta AI 已在 20 个国 家使用并支持 8 种语言，北美地区正在拓展图像编辑等功能。本季度 Advantage+驱 动广告主 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------| | | 季度业绩再超预期，分红规划 ...

Economic Data - July manufacturing PMI index was 46.8, significantly below the expected 49, indicating a potential economic slowdown[2] - July non-farm employment decreased by 65,000 to 114,000, below the consensus expectation of 175,000, raising recession concerns[2] - Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, triggering fears of an impending recession based on historical patterns[2] Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at the July 31 meeting, with the next meeting scheduled for September 18[3] - Market expectations suggest a potential rate cut of 50 basis points in September, though volatility in the next 47 days could lead to a smaller cut of 25 basis points[3] - The Fed is cautious about inflation risks, preferring to risk a recession rather than allowing inflation to spiral out of control[3] Market Strategy - Recent market volatility is attributed to poor economic data and Japan's interest rate hike, which has affected yen carry trades[4] - The VIX index spiked above 60, the highest since 2020, before stabilizing below 40, indicating reduced market panic[5] - Investors should be cautious of crowded trades in popular sectors, as sudden market reversals can lead to liquidity issues[5] Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway's reduction of Apple holdings by 50% and increasing cash reserves to $200 billion raises concerns among investors about potential market downturns[6] - AMD reported a 9% year-over-year revenue increase, with net profit up 881%, driven by data center and AI business growth[11] - Amazon's Q2 revenue increased by 10%, but its Q3 guidance fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant stock price drop[10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $13.8, indicating a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of $9.35 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Q1 FY25 revenue reaching $414 million, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%. The GAAP net profit for the same period was $11.4 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $45.04 million in the previous year [2]. - The company is expanding its offline presence rapidly, with an estimated increase of over 400 teaching locations compared to 300-350 at the end of FY24. This expansion is expected to support growth during the peak summer season [2]. - The company is investing heavily in new business areas, particularly in educational training, which is projected to grow by 85% year-on-year in Q2, driven by the expansion of teaching points and new product launches [2]. Financial Overview - For FY25, the company forecasts total revenue of $2.00 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 34.32% compared to FY24's projected revenue of $1.49 billion. The net profit is expected to turn positive at $45.68 million, compared to a loss of $3.57 million in FY24 [4][6]. - The company reported a cash and short-term investment balance of $3.3 billion with no bank debt, indicating a strong liquidity position [2]. - Deferred revenue stood at $640 million, marking a 50% year-on-year increase, which reflects strong demand for the company's services [2]. Business Segments - The educational training business accounts for approximately 75% of total revenue, with a notable 80% growth in quality education training services. High school training services also showed stable growth [2]. - Content solutions, which include smart hardware and digital content, contributed about 25% to total revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 50% driven by sales of learning devices [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 10.40, representing a potential upside of 35.1% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong profitability resilience despite a revenue decline, with a 6.4% year-on-year decrease in total revenue to HKD 11.81 billion in the first half of 2024, primarily due to falling float glass prices. However, the gross margin improved by 5.3 percentage points to 34.3%, benefiting from lower raw material and energy costs, as well as improved margins in the automotive glass segment. Net profit increased by 27.1% year-on-year to HKD 2.73 billion, driven by significantly reduced financial expenses and contributions from joint ventures [2]. - The company has effectively controlled costs and diversified its product offerings. Revenue from float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass was HKD 6.98 billion, HKD 3.26 billion, and HKD 1.56 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.9%, +8.9%, and -2.8%. The decline in float glass revenue is attributed to weak domestic real estate performance, with a nearly 22% year-on-year drop in completed area. Despite this, profitability remained stable due to lower prices of soda ash and natural gas, with gross margins rising to 28.4%, 49.6%, and 28.5% for float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass respectively [2]. - The float glass price is nearing its low point from the first half of 2020, with current industry production capacity close to 170,000 tons per day and inventory levels at historical highs. The oversupply situation has led to a continued decline in prices, now around HKD 1,400 per ton, putting pressure on the profitability of secondary enterprises. An acceleration in industry maintenance and potential capacity reductions are anticipated [2]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 at HKD 24.0 billion, HKD 24.1 billion, and HKD 25.8 billion, with net profit estimates of HKD 5.4 billion, HKD 5.5 billion, and HKD 6.5 billion respectively. The target price corresponds to forecasted P/E ratios of 8.0, 7.8, and 6.8 for 2024-2026 [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of HKD 23.95 billion, a decrease of 10.6% from 2023, with net profit projected at HKD 5.38 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain stable at HKD 1.29 [5][6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 33.3% for 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 29.2% and a net margin of 22.5% [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from HKD 50.81 billion in 2023 to HKD 52.97 billion in 2024, while total liabilities are expected to decrease from HKD 14.95 billion to HKD 14.36 billion over the same period [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - WeChat Pay MY will stop new user registrations from August 1, 2024, and cease payment services by September 1, 2024, due to local business strategy adjustments in Malaysia. Existing users can still withdraw funds, and the service for Chinese tourists remains unaffected [3]. - WeChat Pay's international business is expanding, covering 74 countries and regions, supporting 31 currencies, with over 1,000 overseas partners and more than 6 million merchants. Monthly transaction volume and number of transactions have seen significant growth, with over 6 times and 4 times year-on-year increases, respectively, as of June 2024 [3]. - Tencent's new tactical shooting game "Delta Operation" is set to launch in September, promising an innovative gaming experience while retaining classic elements. The game has generated significant interest at events like ChinaJoy [3][27]. Summary by Sections WeChat Pay Developments - WeChat Pay MY will halt new registrations and payment services in Malaysia, but existing users can still access their funds. The service for Chinese tourists in Malaysia remains intact [3][28]. - WeChat Pay's international operations are thriving, with substantial growth in transaction numbers and amounts, indicating a robust expansion strategy [3]. Gaming Sector Updates - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 15 new games, including Tencent's "Rainbow Six" and "Final Fantasy XIV," which are expected to perform well in the market [26]. - Tencent's "Delta Operation" is anticipated to provide a unique gaming experience, leveraging advanced technology and gameplay mechanics, and is expected to attract a large player base upon release [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [1]. Core Insights - Tesla has begun a wide release of FSD Supervised v12.5.1.1 for HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with plans to extend it to HW 3.0 owners within 10 days [1]. - Tesla achieved a milestone by producing its 10 millionth motor, primarily for Model 3 and Model Y, indicating strong production capabilities [1]. - Tesla has registered an insurance brokerage in Beijing, China, with a capital of 50 million RMB (approximately 6.9 million USD), potentially expanding its insurance business internationally [1][2]. - Tesla updated its Dojo investment plan in New York, committing to a 500 million USD investment and extending its operational commitment until 2034 [3]. - In the week of July 22 to July 28, 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance volume was approximately 13,500 vehicles, showing a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 9% but a year-over-year increase of 27% [4]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - Tesla's FSD v12.5.1.1 is being rolled out to HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with future plans for HW 3.0 [1]. - The production of the 10 millionth motor highlights Tesla's manufacturing strength, with most motors used in Model 3 and Model Y [1]. - The establishment of an insurance brokerage in China indicates Tesla's strategy to reduce insurance costs and expand its services [1][2]. Financial Commitments - Tesla's commitment to invest 500 million USD in the Dojo supercomputer project in New York, with a significant portion to be invested by the end of next year [3]. Market Performance - The domestic insurance volume for Tesla in China shows a decline from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year, indicating fluctuating market dynamics [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental with a target price of $90.0, representing a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price of $59.9 [1]. Core Insights - The education business continues to grow despite short-term profit margin fluctuations, with a significant increase in the number of schools and learning centers, reaching 1,025, up by 114 from the previous quarter [1]. - The company expects net revenue for FY25Q1 to be between $1.25 billion and $1.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 34% [1]. - The deferred revenue balance stands at $1.78 billion, up 33.1% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with revenue growth expectations [1]. Financial Overview - For FY24Q4, total revenue was $113.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 32.1%, slightly above the company's guidance [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY24Q4 was $36.32 million, a year-over-year increase of 53.8% [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 52.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased investments in expansion and employee compensation [1][2]. Business Expansion - The overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - Non-academic tutoring business registrations increased by 39.1% year-over-year, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 50.3% in new business segments for Q4 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of $5.02 billion in 2025 and $5.84 billion in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 16.3% and 16.5%, respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates maintaining a strong cash position with total cash, short-term investments, and deposits amounting to $4.94 billion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 227.37 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 28.46% from the current price of 177.00 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 166.77 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.37% to 22.86 billion CNY [1]. - The battery business saw a gross margin increase to 26.90%, up by 6.55 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 19.20% decline in revenue from battery sales [1]. - The energy storage segment is emerging as a second growth curve, with sales exceeding 40 GWh and revenue of 28.83 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 22.86 billion CNY in H1 2024, with Q1 and Q2 profits of 10.51 billion CNY and 12.36 billion CNY respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.6% [1]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 403.51 billion CNY, 476.75 billion CNY, and 530.90 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 50.01 billion CNY, 59.71 billion CNY, and 65.33 billion CNY [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 25.3% in 2024 and 25.6% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. Market Position and Strategic Partnerships - The company continues to hold the leading position in the global power battery market, with a market share of 37.5% and a domestic market share of 46.4% in H1 2024, an increase of 3% year-on-year [1]. - Strategic collaborations have been established with major players such as Volvo and Beijing Hyundai in the power battery sector, and with companies like Sinopec and NextEra in the energy storage business [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 165.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24.49% from the current stock price of 132.54 USD [2][3]. Core Insights - AMD's revenue for Q2 2024 reached 5.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 5.7 billion USD [1]. - The company has raised its revenue guidance for the MI300 series to 4.5 billion USD for the year, driven by strong AI demand and a significant increase in data center revenue, which grew by 114.5% year-on-year to 2.83 billion USD [1][2]. - AMD's client business is expected to see double-digit growth in H2 2024, supported by a new wave of PC upgrades and the demand for Ryzen desktop CPUs [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be 26.22 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is estimated at 5.68 billion USD, with a Non-GAAP EPS of 3.5 USD [4]. - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.6% for revenue and 63.6% for Non-GAAP net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][4]. Segment Performance - Data center revenue is expected to grow significantly, reaching 13.48 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 107.5% [6]. - The gaming segment has faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 59.0% in revenue, while the embedded business showed a slight recovery with a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The MI300 series is projected to have a production capacity of 550,000 units in 2024, generating an estimated revenue of 5.5 billion USD [1][5].