敏华控股（1999） 更新报告 买入 2024年05月30日 F Y2024业绩表现良好，持续 看好公司未来的发展 王柏俊  F Y2024 业绩概览：公司实现总收入187.9 亿港元（同比+5.7%）；主营收入184.1 +852-25321915 亿港元（同比+6.1%，人民币口径+10.8%）。集团毛利率同比+0.9pct 至 39.4%， 主 要因为原材料成本的下降。经营开支比率减少 2 个百分点，受益于海运费降价 Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com. 导致相关费用减少及良好的管理人员成本控制。有效税率从 21.1%减少到 16.4%， hk 受益于子公司在新疆享受的税务优惠。因此，归母净利润 23.0 亿港元（同比 +20.2%，人民币口径+25.5%），归母净利润率 12.5%（+1.2pct）。期内公司每股 派息 30 港仙，派息比率为 50.7%。如果加上期内 2.3 亿元的回购，总的股东回报 主要数据 率达 60.7%。 总体业绩良好。期内，中国的门店数净增加 765 家，到 7，236 家。。 行业 家具  中国市场同比+8.1%，欧美市场下半年录得双位数增长 ...

露露乐蒙（LULU.O） 更新报告 买入 2024年5月28日 美国市场消费者支出疲软，中国市场持续高速增长 金煊  业绩简况：FY2023 第四季度，营收同比增长 15.6%至 32.1 亿美 元，净利润为 6.7 亿美元，同比增长 458.8%，营业利润率为 + 852-25321539 28.5%，较上财年增长 17.2pct，毛利率增长 4.3pct 至 59.4%。 FY2023 全年营收同比增长 18.6%至 96.2 亿美元，净利润为 15.5 Lexy.jin@firstshanghai.com.hk 亿美元，同比增长 81.4%，营业利润率为 22.2%，较上财年增长 5.8pct，毛利率增长 2.9pct 至 58.3%，毛利率的增长主要是由于 王柏俊 空运成本和关税的降低，摊薄 EPS 为 12.2 美元，同比增长 82.6%。 + 852-25321915  北美市场高端运动休闲品需求减弱，国际市场保持高增长：分地 区看，北美市场营收同比增长 11.9%至 76.3 亿美元，中国内地市 Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com. hk 场营收同比增长 67.2% ...

第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 台积电 上周发布新的模型，ChatGpt 4o。而第二天谷歌召开的 IO 会议发布了一大堆产品。 整体市场看似欣欣向荣，但我们还是要保持谨慎的态度：软件公司就跟上上世纪的 美国铁路开发一样，竞争激烈，热闹非凡，但是也有泡沫的存在。从另外的角度上 看，泡沫也是产业迅速发展中不可避免的事情，也是促进行业发展的必要，只是我 们作为投资人更多时候需要警惕一下。 最近也有消息称在中国区开始降价去库存，也是好事：终于对变化的环境做出了适 应性反应。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $220.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.24% from the current stock price of $190.90 [2][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the iPhone 15 sales have been disappointing, with a revenue decline of 10.5% year-over-year, attributed to both a high base effect from the previous year and increased competition in the smartphone market [13][52]. - The integration of AI technology is seen as a crucial growth driver for the company, especially with upcoming product announcements expected at the 2024 WWDC [13][44]. - The company is experiencing a structural shift in its revenue, with service revenue growing by 14.2% year-over-year, while product revenue has declined [15][48]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, the company reported a net profit of $96.995 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.2, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [11][12]. - The total revenue for the quarter was $908 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year, but above Bloomberg consensus estimates [15][18]. - The gross margin for the quarter was reported at 46.6%, an increase of 230 basis points year-over-year, driven by growth in service revenue [15][18]. Shareholder Returns - The company has authorized an additional $110 billion stock buyback plan and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share [15][19]. - Over $270 billion has been returned to shareholders, including $235 billion in stock buybacks and $37 billion in dividends [15][19]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report anticipates a low single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the next quarter, with expectations for iPad revenue to see double-digit growth [33][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 4.3% and an EPS CAGR of 9.1% over the next three years, supported by a growing base of paid subscription users and a recovering consumer electronics market [19][64].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) [7] Core Views - Pinduoduo is expected to report strong Q1 2024 results with total revenue of RMB 76 4 billion, up 103% YoY [7] - Online marketing revenue is projected at RMB 37 5 billion, up 38% YoY, while transaction service revenue is expected to reach RMB 39 0 billion, up 275% YoY [7] - Operating expenses are forecasted at RMB 30 5 billion, up 56% YoY, with a cost ratio of 40% [7] - Operating profit is anticipated to be RMB 12 8 billion, up 85% YoY, with a profit margin of 16 7% [7] - Non GAAP operating profit is estimated at RMB 14 9 billion, up 76% YoY, with a profit margin of 19 5% [7] - Diluted EPS is projected at RMB 2 25, with ADS earnings of RMB 8 75 [7] Business Segments - Pinduoduo s main platform is expected to maintain a leading growth rate compared to peers, partly due to a low base in Q1 2023 [7] - Duoduo Maicai achieved profitability in Q1, driven by both average order value and profit margins [7] - Temu s global GMV continued to grow sequentially in Q1, with semi hosted services launched in mid March showing progress [7] - Overseas business costs are primarily driven by logistics and marketing expenses, with fulfillment costs increasing sequentially in Q1 [7] - Marketing expenses are expected to be controlled, as the company paused US market spending after the Super Bowl in February [7]

4 好未来（TAL） 更新报告 买入 2024年5月22日 FY24Q4 业绩超预期，新业务保持高速增长。 但玉翠  24 财年 4 季度业绩概览：公司 24 财年 4 季度（23 年 12 月-24 年 2 +852-25321539 月）收入为 4.3 亿美元，同比增长 59.7%（美元计，下同），GAAP Tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 归母净利润为 0.28 亿美元，去年同期为-0.39 亿美元；Non-GAAP 归 母净利润 0.48 亿美元，去年同期为-0.13 亿美元，同比扭亏。季度 主要数据 末公司现金+短期投资为 34.7 亿美元，无银行负债。此外，公司递 延收入为4.3亿，同比增长80%。 行业 教育  线下网点持续扩张，新业务高速增长：我们估算 24 财年 Q4 公司业 股价 12.6美元 务结构:（1）教育培训业务占比约 2/3，其中素质教育培训业务占比 目标价 16.0美元 超 40%，同比增长超 50%，高中教培业务占比约 20%，实现稳定增 长。海外教培及其他业务总体占比较小。预估其线下教学点增加至 （+29.7%） 300-350 间。（2）内 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2] Core Insights - Tesla achieved a significant milestone by producing its three millionth vehicle at the Fremont factory, which indicates a production rate of approximately 45,000 vehicles per month or 540,000 vehicles annually, slightly below the previously reported annual production target of 650,000 vehicles for Q1 2024 [12][12] - The company plans to establish a local autonomous driving data center in China to comply with government data management requirements, ensuring the safety of data access while training its full self-driving algorithms [15] - Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscription rate was reported at only 2%, but Elon Musk claimed the actual rate is much higher, with upcoming software updates expected to significantly improve performance [14] Summary by Sections Company Milestones - Tesla's Fremont factory produced its three millionth vehicle on May 18, marking a production milestone that reflects a strong output capability [12] - The production rate is slightly below the target set in the Q1 2024 report, indicating a need for potential adjustments in production strategy [12] Financial Metrics - Tesla's current stock price is $177.46, with a market capitalization of $565.95 billion and a total share count of 3.189 billion shares [13] - The 52-week high and low for the stock are $299.29 and $138.80, respectively, with a book value per share of $20.19 [13] Product Developments - Tesla's Berlin factory has begun producing Model Y vehicles with hardware version 4.0, phasing out the previous version [16] - The price of the Model 3 Performance in the U.S. was increased by $1,000 to $54,990, which is just below the threshold for electric vehicle tax credits [17] Market Activity - In the second week of May 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations reached approximately 9,800 vehicles, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 72% but a year-over-year decrease of about 2% [18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.37 or HKD 130.67, indicating a potential upside of 64.31% in USD and 60.72% in HKD from the current price [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance was below expectations, with revenue of RMB 25.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.6%. The vehicle delivery volume was 80,400 units, up 52.9% year-on-year but down 39% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 20.6%, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in vehicle gross margin [1]. - The company launched the L6 model, which is expected to stabilize sales, with over 41,000 orders received by May 5. The sales guidance for Q2 is between 105,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.6% to 36.8% [1]. - The release of the pure electric SUV has been postponed to the first half of 2025, while the company plans to accelerate the construction of fast-charging stations, aiming to build over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve sales of 504,000 units, 705,000 units, and 856,000 units from 2024 to 2026, with revenues of RMB 148.3 billion, RMB 202.8 billion, and RMB 244.3 billion respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 8.72 billion, RMB 13.7 billion, and RMB 18.8 billion for the same period [1][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 20% for both 2024 and 2025, with net profit margins of 6% and 7% respectively [7]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 143.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 208.4 billion by 2026, while total liabilities are expected to increase from RMB 82.9 billion to RMB 100.3 billion in the same period [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.97, representing a potential upside of 30.86% from the current stock price of HKD 38.95 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 49.6% year-on-year to HKD 10.55 billion, recovering to 80.9% of the 2019 level [1]. - The VIP gaming table turnover rose by 78.5% year-on-year, while mass gaming revenue increased by 57.0% year-on-year, although it saw a slight decline of 1.3% quarter-on-quarter due to lower win rates [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA grew by 48.7% year-on-year to HKD 2.84 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 26.9% [1]. - The company holds a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 25 billion, the strongest in the industry [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total net revenue for 2023 was HKD 35.68 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 44.31 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [3][4]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 9.96 billion, expected to rise to HKD 12.79 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 28.4% [3][4]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 6.83 billion, with projections of HKD 10.20 billion for 2024, showing a significant increase of 49.4% [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from HKD 1.6 in 2023 to HKD 2.3 in 2024 [3][4]. Market Position and Future Developments - The company’s market share has shown signs of recovery in April and May, benefiting from an increase in sales personnel and the introduction of smart gaming tables [1]. - The company plans to launch a new hotel brand, Capella, in mid-2025 and is progressing with the construction of the fourth phase of its Macau project, expected to be completed by 2027 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its dining and retail offerings and has a strong interest in expanding into Thailand [1].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年5月23日 星期四 【公司评论】 澳优（1717,未评级）： 2023年负重前行，长期规划静待改善 黎航荣 Wayne.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 2023FY业绩符合预期 852 2532 1539 公司23FY共计实现收入73.8亿元，同比-5.3%，实现归母净利润1.74亿元，同比 -19.5%，如剔除一次性费用影响后，核心净利润预计为2.55亿元。同期，2023年 行业 乳制品/食品饮料 中国婴幼儿配方奶粉行业受出生率下降+需求疲软等影响，行业规模同比双约双位 股价 2.40元 数下降幅度，逆势环境下公司整体表现优于行业。2023 财年公司拟派末期股息每 股普通股5港仙（总额0.8亿元），派息比率46.2%。 目标价 国内业务短期承压，海外业务强势增长 分产品看，23FY 牛奶粉、羊奶粉、私人品牌及其它、营养品业务分别实现收入 25.6/32.8/12.5/2.9亿元，同比分别-12.4%/-8.6%/+9.1%/113.9%。其中：1）牛奶 市值 42.72亿元 粉业务下滑，主要受行业 ...