Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $32, indicating a potential upside of 52.4% from the current price [1]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 8.4 billion RMB for FY24Q2, representing a year-over-year increase of 35.5%. Revenue from self-operated stores was 6.28 billion RMB, up 39.6%, while franchise store revenue was 1.85 billion RMB, up 24.5% [1]. - The company experienced a slowdown in store expansion, with a total of 19,961 stores at the end of Q2, adding only 1,371 new stores compared to 2,342 in FY24Q1 [1]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for self-operated stores was -20.9%, indicating a decline influenced by previous rapid store openings and ongoing promotional activities [1]. - The company’s operating profit margin for self-operated stores improved to 21.5%, with overall gross margin increasing by 6.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Active user count reached nearly 60 million, with a significant increase in monthly transaction users by 61.8% year-over-year [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from 24.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 32.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.8 billion RMB in 2023 to 2.6 billion RMB in 2024, with a notable growth of 580.1% in 2023 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.15 RMB in 2023 to 1.06 RMB in 2024, with a significant increase of 475.8% in 2023 [3].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with expectations of continued growth in the gaming sector, particularly driven by new product launches in the second half of the year [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry showed stable growth in the first half of 2024, with actual sales revenue reaching 147.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Mobile games accounted for 73% of this revenue, although their growth rate has slightly declined. In contrast, mini-program games experienced a rapid growth rate exceeding 60% [5]. - The primary growth driver for the gaming industry remains overseas markets, with domestic sales revenue from self-developed games decreasing by 3.3% to 117.74 billion yuan, while overseas market revenue increased by 4.2% to 8.55 billion USD [5]. - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 3338.8 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 9.321 billion shares. The stock price is currently at 358 HKD, with a 52-week high of 400.2 HKD and a low of 256.8 HKD [5]. - The report highlights the anticipated 10% year-on-year growth in Tencent's gaming revenue in the second half of the year, driven by new game releases such as "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game [5]. - Tencent's new game "Brawl Stars" is set to launch its first domestic test on July 30, 2024, which is expected to attract a significant player base due to its short gameplay duration, catering to the fast-paced lifestyle of players [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese gaming market's actual sales revenue for the first half of 2024 was 147.27 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.1%. The user base for gaming remains stable at approximately 670 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [5]. - The overseas market continues to be a significant growth area, with self-developed games seeing a decline in domestic sales but an increase in international revenue [5]. Company Performance - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in the latter half of 2024, supported by the launch of new titles and the sustained performance of existing games [5]. - The report notes that Tencent's "Brawl Stars" has already achieved significant success in global markets, indicating strong potential for further growth in the domestic market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China with a target price of HKD 24.25, corresponding to a 14x EV/EBITDA for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - Sands China's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 8.0% year-on-year to USD 1.75 billion, recovering to 82% of 2019 levels [1][2]. - The VIP segment saw a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 40.4%, while the mass market segment experienced a decline of 3.4% [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing renovations at The Londoner, which are expected to enhance profitability post-completion, despite short-term impacts [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 net profit decreased by 17.2% to USD 246 million, with adjusted EBITDA down 8.0% to USD 561 million, recovering to 73% of 2019 levels [1][2]. - The hotel occupancy rate was reported at 95%, with an average room rate of USD 201 [1]. - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, revenue is projected to reach USD 7.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [3][4]. Operational Highlights - The report details the performance of various properties, with revenue recovery rates for The Venetian, The Londoner, and others ranging from 50% to 119% of 2019 levels [1]. - The renovation budget for The Londoner Phase II is set at USD 1.2 billion, with completion expected to enhance the competitive edge and profit margins of Sands China [2][4]. Market Position - Sands China is positioned as the largest integrated resort operator in Macau, holding a leading position in both mass and non-gaming segments [2][4]. - The report expresses confidence in the long-term growth prospects of the company, driven by strategic renovations and market recovery [2].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 29 日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 特斯拉即将发布智能召唤功能 马斯克在 X 上的一篇文章中分享了智能召唤功能 Actual Smart Summon 的信息。 目前这一功能并未出现在 FSD 12.5 更新中，马斯克确认，智能召唤功能将是是 一个单独的代码，该功能将与下个月更新的 v12.5.x 捆绑发布。许多人认为，"实 际智能召唤"将成为特斯拉 Robotaxi 成为现实的前兆。 Cybertruck 预计在 8 月实装 FSD（监督） 马斯克参加了 X Takeover 活动的问答环节。特斯拉车主斯金格问到 Cybertruck 车主什么时候可以看到 FSD，马斯克称应该会在八月份出来，在接下来的两到四周 的某个时候，应该可以在 Cybertruck 上运行。 特斯拉 2024 年第二季度财报电话会议 当地时间 7 月 23 日举行了特斯拉第二季度财报电话会议。 马斯克对公司的多个方面进展进行了分享，主要包括： 机器人：预计明年初开始限量生产，明年年底在特斯拉工厂试运行。2 ...

谷歌（GOOGL/GOOG） 更新报告 收入利润和云业务均超预期，AI 开始贡献收入增长 24Q2 业绩总览：24Q2 公司营业收入为 847 亿美元（YoY+13.6%,QoQ+5.2%）， 净利润 236 亿美元（YoY+28.6%,QoQ-0.2%），收入和利润均超出市场预期。 其中，谷歌服务收入 739 亿美元（YoY+11.5%）；谷歌云业务收入 103 亿美元 （YoY+28.8%）。整体看搜索广告业务保持稳健增长，云业务呈现高速增长。 截至 24Q2 季度末，公司拥有 1007 亿美元的现金及等价物，经营现金流入 266 亿美元。24Q2 公司向 A/B/C 类股票的股东分别支付股息 12 亿/1.7 亿/11 亿美元，总计 25 亿美元。并宣布下季度派发 0.2 美元每股股息。 业务重点：本季度谷歌搜索和其他广告收入 485 亿美元（YoY+13.8%）,其增 长受益于零售行业的增长。在效果广告和品牌广告的推动下，YouTube 广告 收入达到 86.6 亿美元（YoY+12.9%）。网络广告收入 74.4 亿美元（YoY5.2%）。订阅、平台和设备收入为 93.1 亿美元（YoY+14.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Tesla (TSLA) with a target price of **$290.00**, representing a **31.67%** upside from the current price of **$220.25** [1][3] Core Views - Tesla's Q2 2024 performance showed a **5% YoY decline in deliveries** to **444,000 units** and a **14% YoY decline in production** to **411,000 units** [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was **$25.5 billion**, a **2% YoY increase**, but below market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue stood at **$19.88 billion**, while energy generation and storage revenue reached **$3.01 billion**, with energy storage deployments at **9.4 GWh** [1] - Operating margin declined by **3.33 percentage points YoY** to **6.3%**, and net income dropped **45% YoY** to **$1.48 billion** [1] - Free cash flow for the quarter was **$1.34 billion**, with cash and cash equivalents totaling **$30.72 billion** [1] Automotive Business - Automotive gross margin remained stable at **18.5%** in Q2 2024, but excluding ZEV credits, it was **14.6%**, impacted by price reductions, Berlin factory upgrades, and lower deliveries [1][9] - Tesla's global inventory days decreased by **36% QoQ** to **18 days**, with a production-to-delivery ratio of **108%** [7] - The company expects automotive margins to improve in future quarters as the refreshed Model 3 and Cybertruck production ramps up [11] Energy Business - Energy storage gross margin remained strong at **24.6%**, with deployments reaching a record **9.4 GWh**, up **157% YoY** [1][5] - The company anticipates significant capacity expansion from its Shanghai factory, potentially doubling or tripling current output [1] FSD and AI Developments - FSD V12 has accumulated over **600 million miles**, with Tesla's neural network training servers expected to reach **90,000 H100-level GPUs** by year-end [1][15] - Tesla has made progress in regulatory approvals for FSD in China, following Elon Musk's meeting with Chinese officials and collaboration with Baidu on autonomous driving maps [15] Future Growth Drivers - Tesla expects to reach **3 million units** of peak production capacity by 2025, driven by new model launches and capacity expansions [15] - The company plans to unveil the **Model 2** or **$25,000 vehicle** in October 2024, with production expected to begin in 2025 [17] - Cybertruck production has reached **1,400 units per week**, with plans for China and EU-specific versions [17] Valuation and Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tesla's deliveries to reach **1.82 million** in 2024, **2.30 million** in 2025, and **2.91 million** in 2026 [1] - Revenue is projected to grow to **$103.3 billion** in 2024, **$133.5 billion** in 2025, and **$200.2 billion** in 2026 [1] - The DCF valuation assumes a **WACC of 12%** and a **perpetual growth rate of 3%**, resulting in a target price of **$290.00** [18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Trip com Group (TCOM) with a target price of $54 62, representing a 25 8% upside from the current price of $43 43 [1][5] Core Views - Trip com Group is the leader in China's online travel market and is expanding globally through strategic acquisitions and technological innovation [1][14] - The company has demonstrated strong resilience and recovery post-pandemic, with 2023 revenue and non-GAAP net profit surpassing pre-pandemic levels [60][61] - Trip com Group's international business has become a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue accounting for 13 2% of total revenue in 2023, up from 9 5% in 2018 [77] Business Overview Domestic Market Leadership - Trip com Group dominates China's OTA market with a strong presence in high-end hotels and a comprehensive supply chain network [21][27] - The company has a healthy user base, with 87% of users being middle to high-income consumers and 66% aged between 80s and 90s [34][38] International Expansion - Trip com Group has accelerated its global expansion through acquisitions like Skyscanner and Trip com, establishing a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and North America [14][78] - The company's international revenue reached RMB 5 89 billion in 2023, nearly doubling from 2018 levels [77] Financial Performance - Trip com Group's 2023 revenue reached RMB 44 56 billion, a 122 2% YoY increase, with non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13 07 billion, up 910 1% YoY [6] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15 6%, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 20 36 billion by 2026 [6] Growth Drivers Domestic Market - Trip com Group benefits from China's post-pandemic travel recovery, with domestic travel demand remaining strong [63][65] - The company's focus on high-end hotels and cross-selling opportunities between transportation and accommodation services drives revenue growth [24][26] International Market - Trip com Group's overseas platforms, Trip com and Skyscanner, are key growth engines, with Trip com's revenue contribution expected to exceed 10% in 2024 [87] - The company's differentiated strategy in Asia and non-confrontational approach in欧美 markets have helped it gain market share [85][86] Industry Outlook - China's tourism industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with online penetration rates continuing to rise, benefiting leading OTA platforms like Trip com Group [55] - The global online travel market has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Trip com Group well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [70][74] Strategic Initiatives - Trip com Group has invested heavily in technology, including AI and big data, to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [81] - The company's localized services and multi-language support have improved its competitiveness in international markets [81][82]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.38, indicating a potential upside of 31.98% from the current price [2][74]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a builder of a "human-vehicle-home ecosystem," with a focus on expanding its core business areas, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services, while also venturing into the automotive sector [1][5]. - The smartphone business remains stable, with a market share of 13.8% as of Q1 2024, and is expected to benefit from the 5G device upgrade cycle and AI-driven innovations [1][12]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is the world's leading consumer-grade AIoT platform, with significant growth potential as the company expands its overseas market presence [1][25]. - The internet services business is projected to enhance its monetization capabilities as the company penetrates the high-end market and expands its overseas user base [1][32]. - The automotive segment, marked by the launch of the Xiaomi SU7, is anticipated to drive a second growth curve for the company, with a delivery target of approximately 120,000 units for 2024 [1][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to RMB 332.86 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [3][74]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 17.47 billion, with projections of RMB 14.31 billion for 2024, reflecting a decrease due to ongoing investments in new business areas [3][74]. - The gross margin improved from 16.99% in 2019 to 21.21% in 2023, driven by a better revenue mix and strategic focus on profitability [64][66]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment accounted for 61.6% of total revenue in Q1 2024, with a market share of 14% globally [12][15]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached RMB 1,144.7, showing resilience despite market fluctuations [13][18]. IoT and Lifestyle Products - The IoT platform connects 786 million devices, with a user base of 15.2 million having five or more connected devices [25][28]. - The IoT segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 902.3 billion to RMB 1,007.2 billion from 2024 to 2026 [72]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue is projected to grow from RMB 332.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 390.8 billion in 2026, driven by advertising and gaming services [72][33]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment aims to deliver 120,000 units in 2024, with revenue expectations of RMB 299 billion, increasing to RMB 800 billion by 2026 [72][37]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a high-end strategy to enhance brand image and expand into higher price segments, with over 20% of smartphone sales in the high-end category [18][20]. - The automotive business is positioned as a key growth driver, with significant investments in R&D and production capabilities [37][43]. - The integration of AI across all product lines is a strategic focus, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [16][44].

更新報 Group 5.74% 報告 202 24年7月 2 25 日 買入 廣 廣告版訂閱全 全面向好， 上調至買入 入評級 平臺的雙邊網 用戶群體，形 入巨額成本， 市場正在萎縮 繼續通過優質 業務方面，廣 預計 2026 的創作者工 內容推薦、廣 計 23-26 年收 6.6%、27.4% 摘要：收入 增用戶 805 閱費用同比增 分別為第二和 版所在地區的 比增長 42%至 薄後 EPS 為 4 .29 美元增長 指引：收入將 於 2023Q3 的 攤薄後 EPS 長 14-15%， 提升。預計 2 60 億美元。 00 美元，買 F 法估值，假 2.00 美元， 當前價格對應 流媒體及其他 元計價的財務 奈飛 買入評級：我 假設 WACC 為 較當前股價 應 24-26 年市 他線上平臺 務表現、文 （NFLX 我們上調未來 9.0%，長期 價有 16.7%的 市盈率分別為 臺加速搶奪使 生視頻應用 ） 奈 不 質 而 大 粘 戶 AI 公 AI 為 奈飛受益於平 不斷增長的用 質內容上投入 而有線電視市 大。公司將繼 粘性。在新業 戶高速增長， I 將誕生新 公司也將在內 I。我們預計 為 25. ...

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 13 was 240,000, exceeding expectations of 229,000 and the previous value of 222,000[16] - The number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.867 million, marking the highest level since November 2021, indicating economic cooling[16] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.1%, prompting market expectations for an 88.5% probability of a rate cut in September[16] Semiconductor Industry - ASML's disappointing Q3 guidance has raised concerns, but TSMC's performance is not necessarily correlated, as TSMC continues to optimize existing equipment to reduce costs and improve margins[5] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant adjustments due to ASML's poor guidance and potential U.S. trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology to China[18] Market Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a summer decline in the U.S. stock market due to seasonal weakness and tight positioning, suggesting a potential self-fulfilling prophecy[19] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in high-performing sectors like semiconductors and explore opportunities in consumer, financial, industrial, and real estate sectors[19] Bitcoin and AI - Long-term optimism for Bitcoin remains, viewed as an effective hedge against fiat currency depreciation despite uncertainties regarding Trump's potential policies on cryptocurrency[6] - Nvidia's market cap could reach $49 trillion in 10 years if demand grows at 60% annually, though a 35%-40% price correction is also anticipated[8]