协鑫科技（03800） 更新报告 买入 2024年05月22日 有望以颗粒硅成本优势率先走出行业底部 黄佳杰  降价与减值影响业绩：2023 年全年收入 337 亿元，同比减少 6.2%，毛 利率同比下降 14ppts 至 34.7%，股东净利同比下降 84.7%至 25.1 亿元； + 852-25321599 利润端下滑主要因为硅料和硅片价格的大幅下降以及部分项目出表的减值 harry.huang@firstshanghai.com.hk 影 响等。2024Q1 业绩依然承压，股东利润 0.33 亿元，同比大幅下降。主 陈晓霞 要是受（1）硅料及硅片均价同比下降影响（Q1 硅料均价（含税）55 元每 公斤，同比下降近 70%），硅片业务亏损：（2）近期呼和浩特新产能爬坡 + 852-25321956 影 响降本：（3）24Q1 研发费用保持较高影响。公司公布 2024-26 年股东 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 回报方案，计划三年内进行不低于26亿元的股份回购或分红。  产能爬坡及工艺稳步提升：公司实现颗粒硅产能和产出的大幅增长，截 主要资料 止 2023 年底有效产能达到 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the target price to HKD 30 and assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic and overseas demand, with a steady improvement in annual performance, including a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year to HKD 13.07 billion and a net profit growth of 10% to HKD 2.49 billion [1][2]. - The sales trend for the company's main products, particularly the Mars and Jupiter models, is showing positive momentum, with significant year-on-year growth in sales revenue and volume [1][2]. - The company has established a presence in high-growth markets such as India, Mexico, and Turkey, which is expected to enhance its market share [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 13.07 billion for the year, with a gross margin of 32.1%, slightly up from the previous year [1]. - The net cash position stands at HKD 6.7 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [1]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.66 per share, a 20% increase year-on-year [1]. Sales and Product Development - The company has successfully promoted its fifth-generation machines, leading to a rebound in orders and sales, with total sales revenue for the Mars model reaching HKD 7.98 billion, a 9.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The Jupiter model also saw a year-on-year sales revenue increase of 14.5% [1]. - Despite a decline in demand for the Chang Fei Ya electric model, there are signs of recovery in the second half of 2023 [1]. Market Outlook - The company achieved overseas sales of HKD 5.15 billion, a 17.3% increase, with Europe showing significant growth [1]. - Domestic demand remains stable, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and equipment upgrades [1]. - The report anticipates a continued positive cycle of sales growth and equipment investment in the domestic market [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $115.00 USD / 113.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% / 34% from the current stock price of $86.28 USD / 84.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 1,023.89 billion CNY, 1,100.12 billion CNY, and 1,195.08 billion CNY respectively. Operating profit is forecasted to be 120.47 billion CNY, 145.77 billion CNY, and 169.02 billion CNY for the same period. The diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be 5.1 USD, 6.2 USD, and 7.3 USD respectively [1][17]. - The e-commerce segment has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in GMV, suggesting a potential turning point after years of intense competition. The second half of the year is expected to be particularly important for performance [14]. - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns and is set to complete its dual primary listing in Hong Kong by August 2024, which may lead to inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [14]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of 221.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Operating profit was 14.77 billion CNY, a decrease of 3% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITA fell by 5% to 23.97 billion CNY, primarily due to increased investments in e-commerce and the withdrawal of IPO-related equity incentives for Cainiao [14][15]. - The company has repurchased $12.5 billion worth of shares, reducing the number of outstanding shares by 5.1% [14]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported a revenue increase of 4% to 93.22 billion CNY, with customer management revenue growing by 5% to 63.57 billion CNY. The EBITA margin for this segment was 41% [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 3% to 25.60 billion CNY, with a significant increase in AI-related revenue, which saw triple-digit growth year-on-year [15]. Segment Performance - The e-commerce segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with overseas e-commerce revenue increasing by 45% to 27.45 billion CNY. Retail orders overall grew by 20% [15]. - The logistics segment, Cainiao, reported a revenue increase of 30% to 24.56 billion CNY, driven by cross-border logistics services [15]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to see an increasing share of revenue, with expectations for improved profit margins as project-based contracts decrease [15].

奈飞（NFLX） 更新报告 持有 2024年5月16日 业务具备护城河，未来几年盈利持续扩张 唐伊莲  我们认为奈飞的护城河主要在于庞大的用户群体、持续扩大的双边 852-25321539 网络效应、多年的内容和算法积累、在北美以外及小语种市场的深 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 耕。奈飞在部分中小市场的内容产业链已形成垄断。我们认为广告 版具备很强的吸引力，在尽可能不牺牲用户体验的前提下解锁更低 李倩 价的市场。基于平台性质，公司拓展广告业务的边际成本十分有 限，因此在2025年之后，广告业务将开始贡献更多的收入和利润。 852-25321539 我们预计24-26年收入的复合增速为12.2%，经营利润率为24.7%、 chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 26.1%、27.3%，EPS的复合增速为19.7%。  2024Q1业绩摘要：收入同比增长15%至94.91亿美元，高于公司13% 主要数据 的指引。季度净增用户 933 万，全球总用户数同比增长 16%至 2.69 亿。平均订阅费用同比增长 1%。广告版用户数持续扩大，付费用户 行业 TMT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 133 HKD, reflecting a 24% upside potential from the current stock price of 107 HKD [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 31.5 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year growth of 1% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 10%, aligning with market expectations. Non-GAAP net profit reached 7 billion RMB, exceeding market forecasts with a year-over-year increase of 22% [1][6][11]. - The advertising business is experiencing slow growth, primarily due to a weak macroeconomic environment and slow recovery among small and medium-sized clients. The core online marketing revenue was 17 billion RMB, up 3% year-over-year [1][7]. - AI-driven cloud business is showing promising growth, with a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, largely attributed to Gen AI and foundational models. Revenue from Gen AI accounted for approximately 330 million RMB in Q1 2024 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2024 was 31.5 billion RMB, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 6.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit was 7 billion RMB, marking a 22% increase year-over-year [1][6][10]. - The core business revenue was 23.8 billion RMB, with online marketing revenue at 17 billion RMB and non-online marketing revenue at 6.8 billion RMB [1][6][10]. Advertising Business - The core online marketing revenue grew by 3% year-over-year, but the growth rate is expected to decline in the second and third quarters of 2024 due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][7][11]. - The mobile ecosystem remains stable, with 676 million monthly active users on the Baidu app, a 3% year-over-year increase [1][7]. AI and Cloud Business - The AI cloud revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, driven by Gen AI and foundational models, with Gen AI contributing 6.9% to the AI cloud revenue [2][8]. - The autonomous driving service provided 826,000 rides in Q1 2024, a 25% year-over-year increase, with plans to expand the fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2024 [2][8]. Valuation and Market Position - The report adopts a cautious valuation approach, not assigning a value to the cloud and autonomous driving businesses due to their uncertain profitability. The target price is based on a 15x PE ratio of the projected 2024 profits [2][11].

圖表 3：公司毛利率水準 圖 4：經調整歸母淨利潤（百萬元） 52.6% 57.3% 54.8% 45.6% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 综合毛利率 增值服务 广告 金融科技和企业服务 239.1 234.7 228.7 233.8 226.0 241.0 245.0 248.0 260.0 6% 2% -3% -1% -5% 3% 7% 6% 15% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 mn 收费增值账户数 增速 第一上海證券有限公司 2024 年 5 月 《地下城與勇士：起源》展望 回顧該遊戲的過往表現，騰訊在 2008 年開始在中國代理並發行 DNF，並 ...

龙源电力（0916） 更新报告 买入 2024年5月14日 风电盈利平稳增长， “以大代小”蓄势待发 陈晓霞  2023 年业绩平稳增长：2023 年公司实现收入 376 亿人民币, 受煤炭销售 + 852-25321956 量与价格下行影响，同比减少 5.6%。实现归母利润 62 亿元，同比增长 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 26.5%。由于售电补贴款回款减少，2023 年经营活动的现金流入净额为 138.84 亿元，同比减少 53%。公司拟派息每股 0.2225 元人民币，分红比例 李羚玮 提升至30%。 + 852-25321539 David.li@firstshanghai.com.hk  弃电和市场化交易提升拖累短期业绩：公司 2024 年一季度新增新能源 装机562MW。截至3月底，公司控股风电装机达到27.78GW，同比增长6%， 主要数据 光伏和其他可再生能源装机 6.5GW，同比增长 114%。受市场化交易规模扩 行业 电力 大以及售电结构变化的影响，公司一季度风电售电收入同比减少 4.7%。受 新能源装机加速导致弃电率有所上升以及风速的影响，公司一季度风电 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年5月13日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 埃隆·马斯克概述特斯拉全自动驾驶更新、V12.4预计本周内推出 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 埃隆·马斯克更新了特斯拉即将推出的全自动驾驶 (FSD) 软件更新的大纲。马斯 李倩 克表示：“12.4 几乎完全重新训练了模型。最后的润色是为了舒适性，因为它有时 852-25321539 会加速或刹车太快，不符合大多数人的口味。12.5 和 12.6 处于不同的测试阶段。 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 遇到了罕见的复杂情况，例如：沿着一条狭窄的单行道行驶，遇到道路封闭，不得 陈晓霞 不倒车寻找新路线。”同时，马斯克5月8日表示FSD V12.4预计下周推出，即本 852-25321956 周内。 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 摩根士丹利分析师在体验V12.3.6后对FSD 做出乐观预期 行业 汽车 摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas ...

第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 披露事项与免责声明 披露事项 本报告由第一上海证券有限公司("第一上海")编制，仅供机构投资者一般审阅。未经第一上海事先 明确书面许可，就本报告之任何材料、内容或印本，不得以任何方式复制、摘录、引用、更改、转移、 传输或分发给任何其他人。本报告所载的数据、工具及材料只提供给阁下作参考之用，并非作为或被 视为出售或购买或认购证券或其它金融票据，或就其作出要约或要约邀请，也不构成投资建议。阁下 不可依赖本报告中的任何内容作出任何投资决策。本报告及任何资料、材料及内容并未有考虑到个别 的投资者的特定投资目标、财务情况、风险承受能力或任何特别需要。阁下应综合考虑到本身的投资 目标、风险评估、财务及税务状况等因素，自行作出本身独立的投资决策。 第一上海或其一家或多家关联公司可能或已经，就本报告所载信息、评论或投资策略，发布不一致或 得出不同结论的其他报告或观点。信息、意见和估计均按"现况"提供，不提供任何形式的保证，并 可随时更改，恕不另行通知。 公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Alibaba Group [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba Group is expected to report total revenue of 219.9 billion RMB for the quarter ending March 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group is projected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth, with total revenue estimated at 92.5 billion RMB, where customer management revenue is expected to be 62.1 billion RMB, indicating that the growth rate of customer management revenue is still lower than that of sales [4]. - The growth strategy for the Taobao and Tmall Group focuses on a user-first approach and efficient operations to better serve the diverse Chinese consumer base [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods in China grew by 11.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods [4]. - Adjusted EBITA is expected to slightly decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA projected to decrease to 38.1 billion RMB, primarily due to higher-than-expected losses from non-Taobao businesses, including a one-time equity incentive distribution to employees following the withdrawal of Cainiao Group's IPO [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Expectations - Total revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be 219.9 billion RMB, with a 5.6% year-over-year increase [4]. Taobao and Tmall Group Performance - Revenue for the Taobao and Tmall Group is expected to be 92.5 billion RMB, with customer management revenue at 62.1 billion RMB, showing a growth rate lower than sales [4]. Growth Strategy - The focus is on a user-first strategy and efficient operations to cater to a diverse consumer base in China [4]. Online Retail Growth - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6% year-over-year, representing 23.3% of total retail sales [4]. EBITA Projections - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA at 38.1 billion RMB, impacted by losses from other business segments [7]. Share Buyback Update - As of March 31, 2024, the company repurchased a total of 524 million shares at a total cost of 4.8 billion USD, resulting in a net decrease of 520 million shares compared to the previous quarter [8].