Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas operator in China, benefiting from a comprehensive upstream and downstream operational structure, which enhances its risk resilience and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in its oil and gas and new energy segments, with projected revenues of 1,732 billion, 1,895 billion, and 2,001 billion RMB for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7%, 9%, and 6% respectively [1][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.06 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from the current price [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China and ranks third among the world's top oil companies [3][7]. - Its main business segments include oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, sales, refining, and new energy [3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenues of 30,110.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.34% to 1,611.46 billion RMB [7]. - The company's oil and gas production reached 1,759.2 million barrels in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [17]. Oil and Gas Segment - The company's oil and gas exploration and production revenues are highly correlated with international oil prices, which are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing global economic recovery and seasonal demand [1][27]. - The company has a robust resource base, with proven oil and gas reserves totaling 18,352 million barrels as of 2023 [26]. Natural Gas Business - The company is actively developing unconventional natural gas resources and has introduced foreign resources to enhance supply channels [66]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 2,198 billion cubic meters in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [66]. Refining and Chemical Segment - The refining and chemical segment is expected to see improved profitability due to a recovery in product prices and stable demand for refined products [42]. - The company processed 1,399 million barrels of crude oil in 2023, marking a 15.3% increase from the previous year [41]. Sales and Marketing - The company has expanded its marketing efforts, resulting in a significant increase in sales volumes for gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, which totaled 166 million tons in 2023, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [73]. - The company operates approximately 22,800 gas stations, accounting for 20% of the national total, which supports its integrated operational strategy [72].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for TSMC, setting a target price of $245.00, indicating a potential upside of 34.25% from the current price of $182.49 [1][4]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit from a simultaneous increase in volume and price due to the demand for AI computing chips and the upcoming product launches from major clients like Apple and Qualcomm [1]. - The advanced packaging capacity is projected to double over the next two years, driven by the increasing demand for higher performance chips [1]. - The foundry industry is experiencing a significant concentration of orders towards leading companies, with TSMC holding over 60% market share due to its superior yield and advanced process technology [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at NT$2,161,736 million, with a forecasted increase to NT$2,859,312 million in 2024, representing a 32.3% growth [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is NT$837,768 million, expected to rise to NT$1,108,724 million in 2024, marking a 32.3% increase [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from NT$32.3 in 2023 to NT$43.4 in 2024, reflecting a 34.4% increase [2]. Company Overview - TSMC, founded in 1987, pioneered the foundry model and currently holds over 60% of the market share in the semiconductor industry [5][29]. - The company operates multiple fabs and focuses on advanced process technologies ranging from 3nm to 3um [5]. Business Segments - TSMC's advanced process technology contributes significantly to its revenue, with 67% of revenue coming from 7nm and below processes in the fiscal year 2023 [9]. - The company also provides mature process technologies for IoT, automotive, and consumer electronics, with a declining revenue contribution from 67% in 2020 to 33% in 2023 [9]. Competitive Advantages - TSMC's foundry model allows it to focus on chip manufacturing while its clients, primarily fabless companies, can concentrate on design [29]. - The company has established deep relationships with major clients like Apple and NVIDIA, which contribute significantly to its revenue [32]. Future Outlook - The demand for AI computing chips is expected to drive TSMC's growth, with advanced process and packaging technologies playing a crucial role in meeting this demand [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are projected to remain high, with a forecast of $32 billion for 2024, indicating strong growth prospects [35].

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 上周美国总统选举首次辩论上拜登表现不佳，被川普打中痛处。媒体认为这是川 普一边倒的胜利，相应地提高了川普在 11 月份胜选的概率，因此对市场投资有一 些影响。川普的政策主张是加关税以及降低企业所得税，这样带来的后果是市场 普遍以为川普上台之后，因为加关税的原因会导致通胀上升，从而会影响联储降 息的节奏。可能是这个原因，导致美国十年期国债利率飙升至 4.46，为近期的高 点。 第二个事件是在 7 月 1 日，美国最高法院裁定，总统对"官方行为"享有豁免 权，几乎保证了川普关于 1 月 6 日国会山骚乱案不会在今年总统大选前开庭审 理，此举基本扫平川普选举的所有障碍。 经济数据 第一个数据是，上周公布了一季度 GDP 的年化季环比终值为 1.4%，较初值有 0.1% 的上修；预计二季度大概会升到 2%。一季度经济放缓主要是由进口增加和商业 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with a focus on its advancements in AI and network technology [9]. Core Insights - Tencent has upgraded its self-developed high-performance computing network, Starry Sky Network 2.0, which has improved communication efficiency by 60% and enhanced large model training efficiency by 20% [9]. - The company is set to launch 35 new mobile games in July, with 21 already scheduled, indicating a strong product pipeline [9]. - Tencent has initiated the "Exploration Plan 2024," aimed at leveraging technology to support cultural heritage, showcasing its commitment to social value investment [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 34,537 billion HKD, with a current share price of 369 HKD [9]. - The total share capital is 9.355 billion shares, with a book value per share of 89.7 HKD [9]. Product Development - The upgraded Starry Sky Network 2.0 supports over 10,000 cards and is designed to enhance AI model training efficiency [9]. - Tencent has three new game products scheduled for release in July, including "Need for Speed: Unbound" and "World Awakening" [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Exploration Plan 2024" focuses on six cultural heritage themes and aims to gather digital solutions to promote cultural transmission [9]. - Tencent Classroom will cease operations on October 1, 2024, as part of a strategic adjustment in response to industry trends [9].

【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 197.88 美元 市值 6310.79 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 | 马斯克:特斯拉 FSD V12.4.2 正在内部测试阶段 | | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 马斯克最近简要介绍了全自动驾驶 FSD V12.4.2 的情况。据马斯克称:" | 12.4.2 | | 更加流畅。挑战在于在提高乘坐舒适度的同时保持高安全性。该版本明天将进入 | | | 内部测试阶段。" 一位 X 用户询问周末是否有 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 8.75, implying a 25% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company's profitability structure is steadily improving, with gas sales contribution increasing to 48.7% while connection revenue contribution declines to 10.8% [2] - Gas sales volume grew 6.2% YoY to 41.7 billion cubic meters, with average gross margin per cubic meter increasing 19% to RMB 0.50 [2] - Value-added services revenue grew 5.8% to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit up 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [2] - Comprehensive energy business achieved breakthrough with total signed installed capacity reaching 221.6MWH, including 112.7MWH of commercial and industrial user-side energy storage [2] Financial Performance - FY23/24 revenue declined 11.5% YoY to HKD 81.41 billion, mainly due to weak real estate market and lower LPG sales [2] - Gross margin improved 0.8 percentage points to 13.9%, driven by better gas sales margins [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at HKD 4.29 billion after excluding one-off items [2] - Operating cash flow reached record high of HKD 11.34 billion, with free cash flow increasing HKD 1.77 billion to HKD 4.29 billion [2] Future Outlook - Gas sales gross margin expected to further improve as more cities implement upstream-downstream price linkage mechanisms [2] - Revenue forecast at HKD 85.9/89.2/92.2 billion for FY24/25/26/27, with net profit of HKD 4.3/4.8/5.0 billion [2] - Target price of HKD 8.75 implies 11x FY24/25 PE, maintaining Buy rating [2] Industry Analysis - The company benefits from natural gas being a key transitional energy in China's "dual carbon" goals [2] - As one of China's largest gas companies, it is well-positioned to capture incremental gas sales growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's mobile game "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has been removed from several Android app stores due to contract expiration, impacting its distribution [2]. - The game has performed exceptionally well in the iOS market, ranking first in downloads since its pre-download launch on May 20, with over 4 million downloads in May alone [2]. - Tencent's mobile gaming revenue increased by 12% in May, driven by the success of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and other titles [2]. - Tencent's esports division is expanding its international cooperation network, launching a global esports exchange program starting in August in regions like Saudi Arabia, France, and Japan [2]. - In June, 104 domestic online games received approval, including Tencent's "Rock Kingdom: World," which is currently in development [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tencent Holdings has a market capitalization of HKD 35,764 billion and a total share capital of 9.362 billion shares [2]. - The stock price is currently at HKD 382, with a 52-week high of HKD 400.2 and a low of HKD 256.8 [2]. Gaming Performance - "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has surpassed revenue records, achieving over USD 100 million in just 10 days post-launch, ranking 8th in revenue [2]. - The game has outperformed "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" in terms of revenue growth [2]. Esports Development - Tencent esports is set to host a series of international exchange events aimed at fostering collaboration within the global esports community [2]. Regulatory Updates - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 104 games in June, including Tencent's upcoming title [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.00, indicating a potential upside of 49.14% from the current price of HKD 22.8 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was USD 460 million, a year-on-year decline of 27.1%, but a slight increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations of USD 470 million. The semiconductor industry is gradually recovering, with capacity utilization and wafer ASP still at low levels. The gross margin was 6.4%, down 25.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The growth in the company's business this quarter was primarily driven by demand for CIS logic products and power management products, with revenues increasing by 63.8% and 15.9% year-on-year, reaching USD 60 million and USD 100 million, respectively. However, power devices and embedded business revenues declined by 38.4% and 50.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 140 million and USD 120 million, respectively [1]. - The company expects wafer ASP to benefit from a rebound in demand for CIS, BCD, and certain embedded and power devices, anticipating a price increase of 5-10% starting in H2 2024. The projected wafer ASP for 2024-2026 is expected to reach USD 405, USD 450, and USD 530, representing year-on-year changes of -23.8%, +11.1%, and +17.8%, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - The company's Q1 2024 net profit was USD 31.8 million, a year-on-year decline of 79.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.2%, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations of USD 38.38 million. The guidance for Q2 revenue is between USD 470 million and USD 500 million, with a midpoint indicating a 5.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The overall capacity utilization for the quarter was 91.7%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 7.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The 8-inch wafer capacity utilization reached 100.3%, while the 12-inch capacity utilization was at 84.2% [1]. - The company’s capital expenditure in Q1 2024 increased by 39.7% year-on-year to USD 300 million, with USD 200 million allocated to Huahong Manufacturing [1].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 6 月 25 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 | | 李倩 | 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 | | +852-25321539 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $600 for the company [19][31][43] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $36.46 billion for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 27.3%, which is above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $36.13 billion [2][4] - The operating profit for the quarter was $13.82 billion, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 91.2% [4][40] - The company has adjusted its full-year spending guidance for 2024 to a range of $96-99 billion, up from the previous estimate of $94-99 billion [5][40] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, particularly through AI technologies, which are expected to enhance advertising revenue and overall profitability [15][31] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2022 was $116.609 billion, with projections of $134.902 billion for 2023, $159.010 billion for 2024, and continuing growth to $200.584 billion by 2026 [1][33] - GAAP net profit for 2022 was $23.2 billion, with forecasts of $39.098 billion for 2023 and $51.558 billion for 2024, indicating a strong upward trend [1][33] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was $8.6, projected to rise to $14.9 in 2023 and $19.8 in 2024 [1][33] User Engagement and Advertising Insights - The company reported a total daily active users (DAU) of 3.24 billion, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $11.2 [29] - Advertising impressions increased by 20% year-over-year, contributing to a 6% rise in average selling price (ASP) [29][41] - The company is experiencing challenges in user growth in North America, with a 4% decline in Instagram's DAU [29][41] AI and Technology Developments - The company launched a new version of Meta AI supported by the Llama 3 model, aiming to become a leading player in AI services [7][41] - The Reality Labs segment reported revenue of $380 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29.8% [4][42] - The company is transitioning from a VR-focused strategy to exploring both VR and AI as potential growth avenues [18]