宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom with a target price of HKD 7.6, reflecting a focus on improving income quality and operational efficiency [2][4]. Core Insights - China Unicom is entering a phase of "quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, and shareholder return," with an emphasis on profit release rather than just revenue growth [2]. - The company has achieved a historical high in dividend payout ratio, reaching 55% [1]. - The report indicates that 2023 marks a turning point for 5G capital expenditures, with expectations of continued decline in capital spending and improvement in free cash flow [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the year 2023, China Unicom reported total revenue of RMB 372.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with service revenue also at RMB 335.2 billion, reflecting the same growth rate [1]. - EBITDA reached RMB 99.8 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 18.7 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) improved to 5.4%, marking a recent high [1]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2023 totaled RMB 73.9 billion, lower than the previous target of RMB 76.9 billion, with a planned reduction of 12% for 2024 [1]. - Free cash flow for the year was RMB 28.5 billion, representing an 8.3% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - Traditional core business revenue was RMB 244.6 billion, growing by 3.1% year-on-year, accounting for three-quarters of the main business [1]. - The mobile user base reached 333 million, with a net addition of 10.6 million users, and a 5G package penetration rate of 78% [1]. - The digital business segment, particularly the industrial internet, generated RMB 75.3 billion in revenue, a 12.9% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to new service revenue [1]. Dividend Policy - The total dividend for the year was RMB 0.3366 per share, a 22.8% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than the net profit growth rate [1]. - The report anticipates that the dividend payout ratio will gradually increase to 70% in the future [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21, indicating a potential upside of 52% from the current price of HKD 13.8 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit growth of 22.2% in 2023, with sales revenue reaching RMB 34.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The annual sales volume of electric two-wheelers was 16.52 million units, marking an 18% growth and increasing market share to 30.2% [1][3]. - The company has significantly enhanced its core technology capabilities, investing RMB 1.19 billion in R&D in 2023. It continues to lead the market with its graphene lead-acid batteries and has introduced its first-generation sodium-ion battery [1]. - The company is implementing a channel upgrade strategy called "4728," which aims to improve the quality of channel operations through various measures, including retail pricing and product structure optimization [1]. - The overseas market is experiencing rapid growth, with plans to increase production capacity in Vietnam to 2 million units by 2025 and to establish 8-10 bases in South America over the next five years [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve sales revenues of RMB 38.58 billion, RMB 42.01 billion, and RMB 45.73 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8.9%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be RMB 3.23 billion, RMB 3.75 billion, and RMB 4.29 billion, with growth rates of 22.2%, 16.3%, and 14.1% respectively [1][3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 18 times for 2024, with a corresponding target price of HKD 21, indicating significant growth potential [1][2].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨， Teslascope 分享称，FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送， 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大，本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放，此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格，价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) is expected to report Q4 2023 revenue of 82.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 107%, with online marketing revenue of 43.5 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 39 billion yuan [5]. - For the full year 2023, Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to be 241.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with online marketing revenue of 148.4 billion yuan and transaction service revenue of 92.9 billion yuan [5]. - The expected operating profit for Q4 2023 is 17.3 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 19.7 billion yuan. The full year 2023 operating profit is anticipated to be 53.6 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 60.9 billion yuan [5]. - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2023 is expected to be 2.95 yuan, with annual earnings per share for 2023 projected at 9.24 yuan [5]. Financial Overview - The current stock price is 123.20 USD, with a market capitalization of 163.9 billion USD [5]. - The company has 1.329 billion shares outstanding, with a 52-week high of 152.99 USD and a low of 59.67 USD [5]. - The report highlights that Temu's global GMV for 2023 is approximately 16.5 billion USD, with the U.S. being the largest single market [5]. Industry Context - Temu has recently launched a semi-managed model, allowing suppliers to choose logistics service providers to ship products to overseas warehouses, which may enable exploration of higher-priced and larger items [5]. - The report notes that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill related to TikTok, which could pose policy risks for e-commerce platforms like Temu in the context of the upcoming U.S. elections [5].

游戏改善确定性强；广告商业化进程明确；视频号电商初具规模 业绩会中，管理层应该会就明年游戏爆款新品做出新的展望。公司国内游戏收入 受到整个游戏行业流水水平恢复，Q4《王者荣耀》《英雄联盟手游》等环比有所 回暖。海外游戏持续贡献收入，预计海外游戏全年可以维持稳定增长。新游产品 方面，《元梦之星》数据有望在 24 年跑通并显现增量优势，有望成为未来现金牛 的重磅手游，拓宽强社交属性类派对游戏赛道。《DNF 手游》获得版号，后续有 望成为 DAU 爆款手游。 广告业务在视频号高速发展加上运营优化双重加持下将同比上升，主要源于广告 主的投放意愿提高和视频号等商业化程度加深。尤其是腾讯和阿里深化广告商业 化合作，加上 AI 技术赋能提高用户投放精准度。 李京霖 Jinglin.Li@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 TMT 股价 285 港元 已发行股本 94.32 亿股 公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700）：2023 年第四季度及全年财务一致预期 3 月 20 日，腾讯宣布将于 3 月 20 日发布 2023 年第四季度及 ...

海外煤炭行业月报 行业报告 —海外煤炭供需形势报告 2024年3月20日 研究员：李羚玮 联系电话：+ 852-25321539 邮箱地址：david.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 研究员：陈晓霞 联系电话：+ 852-25321956 邮箱地址：xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 煤炭行业研究：海外煤炭供需形势报告 本报告旨在根据国际煤炭当前的供需格局对行业未来的发展趋势做出判断，核心观点如下： 1、 印尼2024年煤炭产量目标7.1亿吨，预计出口额度5.29亿吨； 2、 印尼人均用电量仍有较大增量空间，自备煤电厂仍将大量投产； 3、 印度煤炭产业战略规划，目标2030财年产量提升至15.1亿吨； 4、 印度进口煤炭混配政策改延至6月，煤电仍将是发电主体； 5、 澳洲政府在2023年Q4能源报告中对煤炭进出口预测进行上调。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Macau Gaming Holdings Limited (880) with a target price of **HKD 3.28**, representing a **41.4%** upside from the current price [1] Core Views - The company's **EBITDA** turned positive in Q4 2023, reaching **HKD 70 million**, a **23.8%** increase QoQ, recovering to **59.1%** of 2019 levels [1] - The **Grand Lisboa Palace** project achieved an EBITDA of **HKD 2 million**, marking its first profitable quarter [1] - The company's market share remained stable at **12.0%** in Q4 2023, with potential for long-term growth to **4-6%** as product offerings expand and customer quality improves [1] Financial Performance - Gross gaming revenue in Q4 2023 increased by **9.0%** QoQ to **HKD 6.74 billion**, recovering to **65.7%** of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by **52.2%** QoQ, mass gaming revenue by **8.2%**, while slot machine revenue declined by **2.0%** [1] - Non-gaming revenue decreased by **6.9%** QoQ, accounting for **2.7%** of total revenue [1] - Net loss narrowed to **HKD 3.4 billion** in Q4 2023, with daily operating expenses increasing by **2.0%** to **HKD 19.3 million** [1] Segment Performance - **Grand Lisboa** saw a **16.4%** QoQ increase in gaming revenue to **HKD 1.71 billion**, recovering to **52.5%** of 2019 levels [1] - Other self-operated properties reported a **1.0%** decline in gaming revenue to **HKD 1.17 billion**, recovering to **70.9%** of 2019 levels [1] - Satellite casinos experienced a **10.8%** increase in gaming revenue to **HKD 2.55 billion**, recovering to **49.3%** of 2019 levels [1] Future Outlook - The company is implementing a centralized management system to improve operational efficiency and focus on growth and profitability [1] - The use of **RFID chips** is expected to enhance gaming speed, security, and customer data analysis, helping to identify high-quality customers [1] - The recovery of Macau's gaming market is expected to benefit the company, with potential synergies between **Grand Lisboa** and **Grand Lisboa Palace** [1] Financial Projections - Net revenue is projected to grow by **20.1%** in 2024 to **HKD 25.96 billion**, with further growth of **9.9%** in 2025 and **9.0%** in 2026 [1] - EBITDA is forecasted to increase by **110.6%** in 2024 to **HKD 3.64 billion**, with continued growth in subsequent years [1] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024 at **HKD 667 million**, with significant growth in 2025 and 2026 [1] Valuation - The target price of **HKD 3.28** is based on a **10.4x** 2024 EBITDA valuation for the company's integrated resorts, self-promoted properties, and satellite casinos [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 56.08, which represents a 41.44% upside from the current price [1]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2023 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 254% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.3 billion, recovering to 80% of the 2019 level [1]. - The VIP gaming table turnover rose by 408% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue increased by 398% year-on-year and 5.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the group increased by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2.8 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27% [1]. - The company declared a special dividend of HKD 0.30 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 32%, exceeding expectations [1]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 23.5 billion, the strongest in the industry [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total net revenue for 2023 was HKD 35,683.6 million, a 211% increase from 2022 [3]. - EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 9,955 million, a significant recovery from a loss of HKD 553 million in 2022 [3]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 6,828 million, compared to a loss of HKD 3,433.5 million in 2022 [3]. - The company expects total net revenue to reach HKD 46,147 million in 2024, with a projected EBITDA of HKD 14,299.6 million [4]. Business Development and Future Projects - The company plans to launch a high-end hotel in the third phase of "Galaxy Macau™" by 2025, targeting high-end mass and VIP customers [1]. - The fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau™" is under construction and is expected to be completed by 2027, featuring multiple high-end hotel brands and various entertainment facilities [1]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 are estimated at HKD 61 billion, with HKD 51 billion allocated for the third and fourth phases of "Galaxy Macau™" [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence by establishing offices in Tokyo and Seoul, with plans for Bangkok [1].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年03月04日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 宁德时代预计将为特斯拉车型提供M3P电池 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 宁德时代作为全球领先的电池制造商，预计将为特斯拉的部分车型提供其创新的 李倩 M3P电池。这种新型电池技术以其高能量密度和成本效益而备受关注，预计将大幅 852-25321539 提升电动汽车的续航能力和整体性能。M3P电池的引入标志着特斯拉在优化其电动 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 汽车性能方面迈出的又一重要步骤，同时也展示了 CATL 在电池技术创新领域的领 陈晓霞 先地位。这一合作进一步加强了特斯拉与 CATL 之间的伙伴关系，为电动汽车行业 852-25321956 的未来发展方向提供了新的视角。通过采用M3P电池，特斯拉不仅能够提高其车辆 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 的竞争力，还能够推动整个行业向更高效、更环保的能源解决方案进步。 行业 汽车 埃隆 ...