Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 73.85 CNY [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in its performance, particularly in the chip inductor business, which is anticipated to maintain a high growth rate due to increasing demand in the AI sector [4][8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 475 million, 612 million, and 753 million CNY respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,159 million CNY in 2023 to 2,945 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% [7][10] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 295 million CNY in 2023 to 851 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of around 23% from 2023 to 2027 [7][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 39.6% in 2023 to 42.7% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [7][10] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has successfully completed the transition to new inductor solutions, which is expected to lead to sustained growth in shipment volumes [8] - The company is expanding its partnerships with global manufacturers, enhancing its market presence and product offerings in various application fields [8] - The construction of new production capacity for integrated inductors is progressing ahead of schedule, which may lead to increased production capacity in 2026 [8]

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August 2025, the total social financing (社融) growth rate showed a decline compared to previous months, primarily due to a significant increase in government bond issuance last year, which inflated the data fluctuations[6] - The financing scale of fiscal debt has not weakened, and the government is expected to maintain stable and continuous fiscal policies despite a potential decrease in government bond issuance in the coming months[6] - The internal financing demand, particularly credit, is stabilizing at a low level, with signs of positive impacts from "squeezing out excess" in credit, indicating structural improvements[6] Group 2: Corporate and Household Financing - Short-term financing needs for small and medium-sized suppliers have decreased, but as liquidity improves, medium to long-term credit demand is beginning to recover[6] - In August, the M1-M2 differential narrowed to -2.8%, indicating enhanced economic vitality, while corporate medium to long-term loans only decreased by 20 billion yuan compared to a reduction of 390 billion yuan the previous month[6] - Household medium to long-term loans showed slight recovery in August, driven by relaxed housing policies in several second-tier cities, which improved housing demand[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The overall social financing may see a slight recovery in the future, but structural characteristics will remain a key focus, particularly regarding the financing willingness of small and medium enterprises[6] - Risks include the potential for economic recovery to fall short of expectations amid escalating trade tensions and the risk of tighter overseas monetary policies[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Tesla and Musk are expected to accelerate the development of humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and electric vehicles, benefiting related companies in the supply chain [2] - Musk's recent purchase of 2.57 million Tesla shares, valued at nearly $1 billion, reflects strong confidence in Tesla's future expansion and market value increase [7] - Tesla aims to achieve a sales target of 12 million electric vehicles, with a current cumulative sales of nearly 8 million vehicles [7] - The recent positive sales signals in China and Europe indicate that Tesla's Model Y L has strong competitiveness, with delivery times pushed back due to high demand [7] - The upcoming release of Optimus V3 is expected to provide significant growth potential for companies receiving orders for Tesla's humanoid robots [7] - The expansion of Tesla's Robotaxi service is anticipated to accelerate the development of the autonomous driving and Robotaxi industry [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related companies expected to benefit include: - Yinlun (002126, Buy) - Xinquan (603179, Buy) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Rongtai (605133, Not Rated) - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) - Aikedi (600933, Buy) - Xusheng Group (603305, Not Rated) - Jingzhu Technology (300258, Buy) - Longsheng Technology (300680, Not Rated) - Shuanghuan Transmission (002472, Not Rated) - Daimei (603730, Buy) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.92 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.803 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a 16.05% increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 251 million CNY, up 48.83% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 15.658 billion CNY, an increase of 11.66%, and a net profit of 119 million CNY, which is an 80.49% increase [1] - The revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 revised to 671 million CNY and 863 million CNY respectively [2] Financial Information Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 55.137 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 671 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 192.1% compared to the previous year [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.41 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.7 [3] - The gross margin is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, with a net margin of 1.2% [3] Business Segment Insights - The company’s copper processing business saw a sales volume of 179,900 tons in H1 2025, an increase of 8.36%, while copper conductor products reached 229,400 tons, up 14.53% [9] - The composite materials segment is expected to see a rebound in revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by increased defense demand and a backlog of contracts [9] - The company is actively expanding into new markets, including aerospace and semiconductor sectors, leveraging its technological advantages in composite materials [9]

拟建设 8.6 代印刷 OLED 项目，把握 OLED 中大尺寸应用机遇 核心观点 事件：TCL 科技公告，拟投资建设第 8.6 代印刷 OLED 生产线项目（t8 项目）。项 目预计总投资约 295 亿元，月产能为 2.25 万片 2290mm×2620mm 玻璃基板。项目 规划建设周期为 24 个月，预计 2025 年 11 月开工。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股净资产分别为 2.95/3.20/3.77 元（原 25-27 年预测为 3.27/3.53/4.15 元，主要因增发调整了股本数，以及调整了部分损益项）。根据可比 公司 25 年平均 1.92 倍 PB 估值水平，对应目标价 5.66 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 面板需求增长不及预期，公司产能爬坡不及预期，光伏行业需求不及预期。 | 韩潇锐 | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63326320 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.c ...

Inflation Data - In August 2025, the U.S. CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%[6] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[6] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is diminishing, with core goods inflation rising from 1.2% to 1.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by imported goods[6] - The cumulative price drop for all U.S. imports (excluding tariffs) was approximately 0.4% since March 2025, indicating that foreign exporters absorbed about 45% of the tariff costs[6] Economic Outlook - The trend of domestic inflation in the U.S. is expected to continue declining, with rent inflation dropping to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.7%[6] - If inflation rises moderately while the job market weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to strengthen, with a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025[6][18] Risks - Risks include a hard landing for the U.S. economy, a significant rebound in inflation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds remain the top choice, and the idea of excavating based on the issuer's yield curve should be continued. In the current environment, the market pursues certainty and low volatility, so short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are preferred for the pure - bond part. It is recommended to look for riding opportunities in the steep part of the curve or "convex points" of individual bonds when gradually moving towards the medium - and long - term [5][8]. - There are issuers with relatively large term spreads among those with an implied rating of AA+ or above. After the trading concentration in the 1 - 2Y segment further increases, the 2 - 3Y term spread may be repaired, which is suitable for institutions with strong liability - side stability to layout in advance. For issuers with an implied AA rating, there is also room for excavation, and investors can sink according to their needs [5][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - to high - grade credit bonds are still the best option. Last week, the bond market sentiment was fragile, affected by the stock market sentiment and negative news such as fund fee adjustment and tax exemption cancellation. The short - term of credit bonds also adjusted last week, but the adjustment was limited due to the short duration, and the 2 - 3Y medium - term adjusted more, causing the 3Y - 1Y term spread to widen [5][8]. - For specific excavation, among issuers with an implied AA+ rating or above, the 2Y - 1Y term spread is mostly around 10 - 15bp, and the 3Y - 2Y is concentrated in the range of 15 - 20bp. For issuers with an implied AA rating, the 2Y - 1Y term spread of 20 - 30bp is relatively high, and 15 - 20bp has relatively large excavation space [5][10][12]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, issuer rating or outlook downgrades, or bond rating downgrades this week. However, some overseas ratings were adjusted. For example, Fitch downgraded the long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating and senior unsecured rating of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited from "A" to "A - ", and Moody's downgraded the long - term credit rating of Sinochem Hong Kong (Group) Limited from A3 to Baa1 [15][16]. - There were several major negative events, including some real - estate companies facing litigation, being restricted from high - end consumption, and failing to repay debts on time [17]. 3.2.2 Primary Market Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds doubled week - on - week, the maturity volume was roughly the same, and the market returned to net financing. The primary issuance cost of medium - to high - grade new bonds was basically flat week - on - week. Six credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a total scale of 290 million yuan [17][18][20]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trading - The valuations of credit bonds across all grades and terms were adjusted again, with the central adjustment range around 5bp. Credit spreads were mostly flat, and some medium - and long - term spreads were passively narrowed. The 3Y - 1Y term spread of medium - to high - grade bonds widened, while most other spreads narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spread fluctuated slightly, with the 5Y spread widening by up to 3bp [22][24]. - In terms of credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds fluctuated within ±1bp, with medium - to high - valuation regions tending to narrow. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds were flat, and the steel industry spread narrowed by up to 3bp week - on - week [26][28]. - The liquidity of credit bonds further declined, and the turnover rate increased by 0.04 percentage points to 1.53%. The issuers of bonds with the top - widening spreads were mostly real - estate companies, and the valuation of private construction company Xinjie Investment also increased significantly [5][32].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | 021-63326320 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | 021-63326320 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 估值小幅压缩，跟涨能力减弱 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 政策变化超预期；货币政策 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 低位板块开始产生吸引力 策略周报 20250914 研究结论 ⚫ 指数仍有上行空间，但需要开始关注风险 本周上证指数运行至新高附近（收于 3870.6 点），上周指数回调之际，我们提出震 荡上行趋势未变，本周修复符合预期。指数仍有上行空间，但此时更应关注短期上 行的阻力，我们认为阻力正在逐渐加大，需要开始关注短期持续上行后的调整风 险。 ⚫ 低位板块开始产生吸引力 行业结构方面，本周电子（6.1%）、房地产（6.0%）和农林牧渔（4.8%）领涨。 通信（3.0%）的表现符合我们上周认为会修复的观点，修复完成后，我们认为短 期需要且行且退。上周我们认为科技内部会切换，高端制造是重点，本周低位出现 普涨的情况，科技内部切换存在但并不领先，我们认为低位周期板块开始产生吸引 力，关注化工、农林牧渔、钢铁和食品饮料，板块内部分公司存在盈利修复的预 期，值得关注的是盈利修复后，部分公司的红利吸引力会提升。 ⚫ 主题方面，高端制造攻势尚在，布局关注低位制造业和周期题材 1）高端制造的进攻势头未变 我们认为高端制造短期进攻势头尚在，关注国产半导体&先进制程和机器人，但需要 注意追涨风险。国产半导体&先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has declined for the first time this year, primarily due to weak credit demand and a decrease in government bonds, with August's social financing year-on-year growth at 8.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in new loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 3,100 billion yuan in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the credit market [14][20]. - M1 growth shows a trend of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in August, although non-bank deposits have cooled compared to previous months [20][21]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In August 2025, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which was higher than market expectations, but still represented a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report notes that the decline in social financing is largely driven by a reduction in both corporate loans and government bonds, with corporate direct financing also seeing a slight decrease [11][12]. Loan Dynamics - Total RMB loans grew by 6.8% year-on-year in August, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, slightly above expectations but still reflecting a year-on-year decrease [14][15]. - The report identifies a "seesaw" effect between short-term corporate loans and bill discounting, indicating a strategic shift in bank lending practices [15][16]. Deposit Trends - In August, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% respectively, with a narrowing gap between the two [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 2.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1,600 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit behavior among residents and enterprises [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks due to insurance rate adjustments and fundamentally strong small to medium-sized banks [24]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and others, with some rated as "Buy" [24].