金融工程 | 动态跟踪 Value 风格登顶，3 个月盈利上下调因子表 现出色 ——东方因子周报 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Value 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Beta 风格上。3 个月 盈利上下调是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 | 一、风格因子近期表现 4 | | --- | | 二、因子表现监控 5 | | 因子库 5 | | 沪深 300 样本空间中的因子表现 6 | | 中证 500 样本空间中的因子表现 7 | | 中证 800 样本空间中的因子表现 8 | | 中证 1000 样本空间中的因子表现 9 | | 国证 2000 样本空间中的因子表现 10 | | 创业板指样本空间中的因子表现 11 | | 中证全指样本空间中的因子表现 12 | | 三、公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 13 | | 沪深 300 指数增强产品表现 13 | | 中证 500 指数增强产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 66.66 CNY, based on a current stock price of 50.85 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to experience a revenue growth of 5% and a net profit growth of 6% in 2024, reflecting a resilient performance during industry downturns [8][35]. - The company is actively reforming its product and market strategies under the new management, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand positioning [28][34]. - The valuation of the company is considered to have significant upside potential, with a reasonable valuation level set at 22 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [5][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Indicators and Trends - Early indicators show signs of recovery in the liquor industry, suggesting it may be nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving real estate transactions and rising machinery sales [8][12]. - The price indicators for premium liquor are approaching cyclical lows, indicating limited downside potential for prices [25]. 2. Company Performance and Strategy - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, leading to stable performance during industry downturns, with proactive measures taken to reduce stock levels since 2020 [35][36]. - The new management is implementing a dual-brand strategy, focusing on both mid-range and high-end markets, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and market share [28][34]. 3. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.42 CNY respectively [5][6]. - The projected financial metrics indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 5,683 million CNY in 2025, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [6]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the core consumption scenarios for mid-range liquor are showing signs of stabilization, with slight improvements in restaurant revenues and consumer confidence [42][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a potential economic recovery, which could lead to increased demand for its products [49].

药明康德 603259.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩逐季提升，在手订单高速增长 ——药明康德 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计公司 25-26 年归母净利润分别为 105.14、123.29 亿元（原预测值为 107.47、127.78 亿元），新增预测 27 年归母净利润为 137.01 亿元。根据可比公 司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 29 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 105.56 元，给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 医药研发服务市场需求下降的风险、新分子需求不及预期影响产能利用率的风险、 医药研发服务行业竞争加剧的风险、境外经营及国际政策变动风险、行业监管政策 变化的风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 40,341 | 39,241 | 42,455 | 48,444 | 54,453 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -2.7% | 8.2% | 14.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the white liquor industry, which is nearing a cyclical bottom, supported by improving economic indicators and consumer confidence [8][12] - The new management is actively reforming the product and market strategy, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market penetration [28][34] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 2.76, 3.03, and 3.42 yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5,218 million, 5,683 million, and 6,345 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.3%, 8.9%, and 11.6% respectively [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 82% for 2024-2026, while net profit margin is projected to be approximately 25.7% to 26.3% [6] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.5 in 2024 to 14.9 in 2026, indicating a potential for upward valuation [6] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with key indicators such as real estate transactions and consumer spending improving [12][14] - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, which has helped maintain performance during industry downturns [35] - The core consumption scene for mid-range liquor is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in restaurant revenue [42][46] Strategic Initiatives - The new management is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Shuijingfang" and "Diyifang," targeting both mid-range and high-end markets [28][34] - The company is implementing a city-specific strategy to enhance market penetration and adapt to local conditions [34] - The proactive inventory management approach has positioned the company favorably against competitors during challenging market conditions [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec [6] Core Views - The company has shown a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance, with a significant increase in backlog orders, which grew by 47% year-on-year to 49.31 billion yuan [10] - The new molecule business (TIDES) has experienced rapid growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 57.2%, driven by strong market demand and the company's enhanced capabilities [10] - The company is expected to return to double-digit revenue growth in 2025, supported by robust order backlog and incentive plans for H-share awards [10] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 40.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 42.46 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 10.51 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 11.3% [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 43.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 24.8% [5] Valuation and Price Target - The report estimates a reasonable valuation for the company at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29 times for 2025, leading to a target price of 105.56 yuan [3] - The current share price is noted at 68 yuan as of March 27, 2025 [6] Market Performance - The stock has shown a 49.64% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the market [7]

Domestic ESG Developments - SF Express has launched an aviation carbon neutrality plan by signing a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchase agreement with Sinopec and a certification center, marking the official start of its carbon neutrality initiative[12] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange achieved its carbon neutrality goal in 2024, with approximately 99% of its facilities using renewable energy and offsetting 55,000 tons of carbon credits[14] - Shanghai Yupei Supply Chain Management Group aims to source 100% cage-free eggs by 2030, responding to increasing market demand for animal welfare[15] - Ping An Bank released its 2024 Sustainable Development Report, highlighting a manufacturing loan balance of CNY 256.9 billion and a green loan balance of CNY 157.76 billion by the end of 2024[16] International ESG Developments - Amazon introduced a carbon credit investment service focused on reducing deforestation and promoting carbon removal technologies, available to companies with net-zero targets[17] - Nordea signed an agreement to remove at least 68,000 tons of CO2 from the atmosphere, marking the first of several carbon removal projects[18] - LEGO reported that 33% of its bricks will be made from renewable materials in 2024, nearly doubling from the previous year, as part of its sustainability goals[19] - Google launched a carbon footprint report for advertisers to help them measure and manage their advertising emissions, with initial testing showing lower emissions than previously estimated[20][21] - Major tech companies, including Amazon and Google, committed to tripling global nuclear power capacity by 2050 as part of a broader energy sustainability initiative[22] Green Finance Initiatives - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB 6 billion green sovereign bonds in London, aimed at funding clean transportation and pollution prevention projects[23] - The Shanghai Green Finance Service Platform has launched a dedicated version to enhance financing accessibility for green projects[24] - Trina Solar and Industrial Bank signed the first ESG multi-indicator linked loan agreement in China, linking loan rates to environmental performance metrics[25] - The Ningbo branch of Bank of Communications issued its first ESG-linked loan of CNY 50 million, incentivizing environmental performance improvements through interest rate adjustments[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $630.2 million in 2024, with a significant contribution from oncology products, which generated $272 million, reflecting a 65% year-on-year growth [9] - The company has successfully reached financial self-sufficiency ahead of schedule, with a cash balance of $832 million at the end of the previous year [9] - The report highlights the rapid market penetration of the drug Fuzuloparib, with sales of $405 million in 2024, and the ongoing clinical progress of the drug Savolitinib [9] - The company is expanding its product pipeline into autoimmune and hematological malignancies, with new drug applications expected soon [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to $730.03 million and $840.85 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of $844 million and $1 billion [3] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 37.99, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 5.83 for 2025 [3] - The financial projections indicate a significant increase in net profit for 2025, estimated at $468.43 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1141.58% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.18 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium over the estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80 for 2025 [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the reduction in agency fees has contributed to cost savings, leading to a favorable growth in corporate deposits and loans. The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to the parent company showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.5%, and 0.2% respectively by the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth rates have slightly slowed, with total assets growing by 8.6% and loans by 9.4% as of the end of 2024. Corporate loans increased by 13.5% year-on-year, indicating a balanced optimization in business structure [11]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.90% as of the end of 2024, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. The retail sector has faced some pressure due to industry-specific factors, but the overall risk coverage remains adequate [11]. Financial Information Summary - The report provides detailed financial projections for Postal Savings Bank, including: - Revenue (in million CNY): 342,507 in 2023, projected to grow to 348,775 in 2024, and further to 374,031 by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.5% [5][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 86,270 in 2023, with a slight increase to 86,479 in 2024, and projected to reach 93,348 by 2027 [5][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS): Expected to rise from 0.80 CNY in 2023 to 0.88 CNY by 2027 [5][13]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Expected to decrease from 6.42 in 2023 to 6.07 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in market valuation [5][13].

Economic Overview - Turkey's GDP composition in 2023: Agriculture 6.2%, Industry 28.4%, Services 54.1%[2] - Per capita GDP increased from $3,608 in 2002 to $13,243 in 2023, a 3.7-fold rise[2] - Turkey's GDP growth stabilized above 5% post-2021, ranking as the 11th largest economy globally and the 4th in Europe[2] Economic Challenges - Turkey's industrial value added is relatively low compared to other emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, with declining growth rates in both industrial and service sectors since 2024[2][3] - The country has been in a trade deficit, negatively impacting GDP growth, with net exports dragging down economic performance[3][23] - High inflation and reliance on energy imports have weakened Turkey's export competitiveness, prompting some foreign investments to shift to lower-cost countries like Egypt[3][23] Financial Vulnerabilities - Turkey's economy is highly sensitive to international capital flows, exacerbated by a dual deficit in trade and fiscal accounts, particularly under the pressure of the US interest rate hike cycle[4][28] - The Turkish lira is one of the most vulnerable currencies among emerging markets, with significant external debt repayment pressures due to rising dollar rates[4][28] Geopolitical Risks - Deteriorating US-Turkey relations post-2016 coup attempt have led to economic sanctions and heightened market volatility, exemplified by a 20% drop in the lira following US tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum[5][42] - Turkey's strategic geopolitical position as a NATO member in the Middle East complicates its foreign relations, particularly with the US and regional powers like Russia and Iran[6][48] Policy Responses - Turkey has shifted back to conventional monetary policy, raising interest rates from 8.5% in 2023 to 50% by the end of 2024 to combat inflation and stabilize the currency[39][40] - The government faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with stimulating domestic demand, leading to a complex policy environment[4][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.18 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium over the estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the reduction in agency fees has contributed to cost savings, leading to a favorable growth in corporate deposits and loans. The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to the parent company showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.5%, and 0.2% respectively by the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth rates have slightly slowed, but the structure of retail and corporate loans has become more balanced. The net interest margin for the year was reported at 1.87%, with a deceleration in the rate of decline compared to previous quarters [11]. - Asset quality remains stable, although the retail segment has faced some pressure due to industry factors. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.90% at the end of 2024, with a slight increase from the previous quarter [11]. Financial Performance Summary - The bank's operating income for 2023 was 342.51 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 348.78 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 86.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 86.48 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a modest growth of 0.2% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.80 CNY in 2023 to 0.81 CNY in 2024, while the book value per share (BVPS) is expected to rise from 7.92 CNY to 8.37 CNY over the same period [5][11].