Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.18 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium over the estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the reduction in agency fees has contributed to cost savings, leading to a favorable growth in corporate deposits and loans. The bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to the parent company showed year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 4.5%, and 0.2% respectively by the end of 2024 [11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth rates have slightly slowed, but the structure of retail and corporate loans has become more balanced. The net interest margin for the year was reported at 1.87%, with a deceleration in the rate of decline compared to previous quarters [11]. - Asset quality remains stable, although the retail segment has faced some pressure due to industry factors. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.90% at the end of 2024, with a slight increase from the previous quarter [11]. Financial Performance Summary - The bank's operating income for 2023 was 342.51 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 348.78 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 86.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 86.48 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a modest growth of 0.2% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.80 CNY in 2023 to 0.81 CNY in 2024, while the book value per share (BVPS) is expected to rise from 7.92 CNY to 8.37 CNY over the same period [5][11].

六氟历史经验映射下的硫化锂降本路径与 投资机会 ——新技术系列报告（四） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 固态电池产业化进度不及预期、技术路线革新风险、政策支持力度不及预期、下游 需求不及预期、假设条件变化影响测算结果。 新能源汽车产业链行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 | 李梦强 | limengqiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517100003 | | 杨雨浓 | yangyunong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524090005 | | 朱洪羽 | zhuhongyu@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525010001 | 固态电池发展方向探讨：详解硫化物电解 质路线：——新技术系列报告（三） 2024-07-22 半固态装车元年已至，下一代电池技术蕴 藏机遇：——新技术系列报告（二） 2024-02-27 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance for 2024, with revenue of 28.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.24 billion RMB, up 36.9% year-on-year [6]. - The DCF target valuation is set at 93.18 HKD, reflecting an optimistic outlook for the company's growth potential [2][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a high production capacity utilization rate, with an output growth of no less than 10% in 2025, despite uncertainties in the external environment [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 28.66 billion, 32.21 billion, and 36.13 billion RMB, respectively [2][10]. - **Net Profit**: Expected net profits for the same period are 6.24 billion, 6.70 billion, and 7.66 billion RMB, respectively [2][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 4.15, 4.46, and 5.10 RMB for 2024-2026 [2][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 28.1% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 21.8% [6][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 12.4, 11.6, and 10.1, indicating a favorable valuation [2][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of March 25, 2025, was 55.3 HKD, with a 52-week high of 84.23 HKD and a low of 54.78 HKD [3]. - The report notes a relative underperformance compared to the Hang Seng Index over various time frames [4].

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 央行购金空间广阔，投资需求推动金价中 期上涨 ——黄金系列报告之一 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议： 我们认为，逆全球化与贸易壁垒大背景下，受特朗普关税政策反复变动、美 国经济数据及美联储降息预期，全球央行购金有望持续增长，推动黄金价格持续新高。 我们看好金价的长期上涨空间，建议关注全球布局的国内黄金民营企业、2026 年后产量 增量较大的赤峰黄金(600988，买入)，世界级一流矿企、铜、金双轮驱动的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)，同时建议关注山金国际(000975，未评级)。 风险提示 美国政策与经济变化超预期；历史数据参考意义弱化；黄金需求不及预期；假设条件变 化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 27 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研 ...

申洲国际 02313.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 业绩超预期，期待 2025 年表现 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩公告，我们调整盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年每股收益分别为 4.15、 4.46 和 5.1 元（原 3.99、4.49 和 5.04 元），DCF 目标估值 93.18 港币（1 人民币 =1.07 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，人民币汇率波动、中美贸易摩擦对产业的扰动等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,781 | 24,970 | 28,663 | 32,205 | 36,134 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.5% | -10.1% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,262 | 4,996 | 7,164 | 7,706 | 8,825 | | 同比增长 (%) | 37.6% | -5.1% | 43. ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 "特朗普看跌期权"和它的行权价 ——海外札记 20250324 研究结论 风险提示 假设出现偏差的风险。经济基本面不确定性。地缘政治走向不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 27 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 再通胀和财政平衡：聊聊近期海外市场行 | 2025-02- ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on expected improvements in the refining business by 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The refining business is currently under pressure, but improvements are anticipated in 2025 as domestic refining capacity decreases, benefiting the main refineries [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2026 to 0.53 and 0.59 yuan respectively, with a new target price set at 7.42 yuan [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 3,074,562 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year. Projections for 2025 and 2026 are 2,956,403 million yuan and 2,798,092 million yuan respectively, indicating a continued downward trend [4][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 50,313 million yuan, down 16.8% from the previous year. Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 64,417 million yuan and 71,499 million yuan respectively [4][10]. - **EPS**: The EPS for 2024 is expected to be 0.41 yuan, with forecasts of 0.53 yuan for 2025 and 0.59 yuan for 2026 [4][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.5% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2026, while the net margin is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2026 [4][10]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a potential turning point in the industry as domestic small refineries face regulatory pressures, which may lead to improved market conditions for major refineries like the company [10]. - The company is also focusing on technological innovation and transitioning into a comprehensive energy service provider, which includes advancements in hydrogen energy and electric vehicle charging services [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [2][5] Core Views - The refining business is under pressure, but improvements are expected in 2025 as domestic refining capacity decreases, benefiting the company's main refining operations [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2026 to 0.53 and 0.59 yuan respectively, with a new target price set at 7.42 yuan [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,212,215 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 60,463 million yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 15.6% in 2023 to 17.6% by 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 1.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2026 and 2027 [4] Industry Outlook - The industry is anticipated to experience a turning point as regulatory pressures on small-scale refineries increase, leading to a recovery in market share and pricing for major refineries like the company [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The forecasted net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 6.644 billion, 7.645 billion, and 9.133 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of 28.401 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.349 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 6.644 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0% [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to reach 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 26.1 times [12] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the online music service revenue is expected to be 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - The social entertainment service revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 16.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year [9] - The total revenue for 2025 is anticipated to reach 310 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [9]

AI 驱动广告高速增长，Q1 春节档游戏强劲 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q4 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预期游戏增速持续提升，预计 24~26 年 IFRS 归母净利润为 1941/2261/2501 亿 元（24~26 年原值为 1951/2245/2498 亿元，因根据财报上调广告等收入，我们调整 盈利预测），24~26 年 non-IFRS 归母净利润为 2227/2576/2856 亿元。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目标价 559.92 港币（517.04 人民币 HKD/RMB=0.92），维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险 公司主要财务信息 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@o ...