锂价下行业绩承压，一体化优势再巩固 赣锋锂业(002460) 金属，采矿，制品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 32.50 上次预测: 45.46 ——赣锋锂业 2024 年半年报业绩点评 本报告导读： 受锂行业周期下行影响，2024 年上半年锂价下行明显，公司业绩因此承压。上游资 源建设顺利，预计伴随投产将实现降本，持续布局下游项目，锁定一体化优势。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) 宁紫微(分析师) 021-38038404 021-38038438 yujiayi@gtjas.com ningziwei@gtjas.com [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 27.33 登记编号 S0880522080001 S0880523080002 公 司 更 新 报 告 52 周内股价区间（元） 25.52-49.29 总市值（百万元） 55,129 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 2,017/1,209 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） 0/404 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, including specific recommendations for various sub-sectors such as carbon steel, stainless steel, special steel, and steel trading [1][4]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to marginally recover as the seasonal transition occurs, while the market pressure is anticipated to gradually ease due to production cuts and maintenance by some steel companies [3][4]. - The overall inventory of steel has been decreasing, with a notable drop in total inventory levels compared to the same period in previous years [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products reached 8.5758 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45%, but a year-on-year decrease of 8.18% [14]. - The total inventory of steel decreased to 15.6295 million tons, down by 789,200 tons week-on-week, and is currently below the inventory levels of the same period from 2019 to 2023 [4][7]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 76.41%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points week-on-week [17]. 2. Price Movements - The price of rebar increased by 100 CNY/ton to 3290 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.13% rise, while hot-rolled coil prices also saw an increase [7][32]. - The simulated production profit for rebar rose to 193 CNY/ton, an increase of 77.6 CNY/ton week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in profitability [27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish as its share of demand has fallen below 20% [4][7]. - Infrastructure development is anticipated to provide some support for steel demand, while manufacturing is expected to maintain steady growth, potentially offsetting declines in demand from the real estate sector [4][7]. 4. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices have increased, with the spot price rising by 29 CNY/ton to 749 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices remained stable [35][40]. - The inventory of iron ore at ports rose to 153.72 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.26% [40]. 5. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading steel companies with advantageous product structures, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, as well as companies in the special steel sector like Zhongxin Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) with a target price of 160 USD for 2024 [4][11] Core Views - Pinduoduo's revenue growth slowed in Q2 2024, with online marketing and commission income falling below consensus expectations [4][10] - The company is focusing on long-term high-quality development, with increased investments in R&D and merchant ecosystem governance [4][21] - Pinduoduo's adjusted operating profit in Q2 2024 increased by 139% YoY, while adjusted net profit rose by 125% YoY [9][21] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue reached 97.1 billion RMB, an 86% YoY increase, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 100 billion RMB [21] - Online marketing services and other revenues grew by 29% YoY to 49.1 billion RMB, while transaction services revenue surged by 234% YoY to 47.9 billion RMB [21] - Adjusted operating profit margin improved to 33.6%, and adjusted net profit margin rose to 35.5% in Q2 2024 [9] Business Segments - Online marketing services and other revenues grew by 29% YoY in Q2 2024, reaching 49.1 billion RMB [10] - Commission income increased by 234% YoY in Q2 2024, totaling 47.9 billion RMB [10] Future Projections - Revenue for FY2024E/FY2025E/FY2026E is projected at 447.6/570.7/664.7 billion RMB, representing YoY growth of 81%/28%/16% [10][21] - Adjusted net profit for FY2024E/FY2025E/FY2026E is forecasted at 1,296/1,475/1,662 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 91%/14%/13% [10][21] Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo is investing in high-quality development, focusing on merchant ecosystem governance and R&D [4][21] - The company plans to support high-quality merchants by reducing transaction fees by approximately 10 billion RMB [21] - Pinduoduo is also enhancing consumer experience and advancing agricultural projects to improve supply chain efficiency [21]

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.31 ——同庆楼 2024Q2 年业绩点评 [table_Authors]刘越男(分析师) 021-38677706 liuyuenan@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880516030003 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 庄子童 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38032683 | | | | | | zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com | | | | | | S0880524070002 | | | | | 本报告导读： 公司仍处于加速开店期，利润下滑主要系新店爬坡、新业务亏损及财务费用影响。 同店营收同比持平，仍处于加速开 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2][3] - Target price adjusted to CNY 17.50, down from CNY 30.08 [5] Core Views - Revenue growth slowed in 2024H1, with total revenue reaching CNY 10.94 billion (+1.19%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 503 million (-2.05%) [3] - Retail and wholesale growth in 2024Q2 was +0.59% and +2.62%, respectively, with Western and Chinese patent medicines growing by +3.7% [3] - Outpatient coordination contributed positively, with 3,720 coordinated stores accounting for 32.42% of directly operated stores, boosting sales by 9.7% compared to non-coordinated stores [3] - Gross margin improved due to the "Torch Project," with Q1/Q2 gross margins increasing by +2.2pp and +1.0pp, respectively [3] - Self-built stores accounted for 86% of new directly operated stores in 2023-2024H1, impacting short-term profitability but expected to improve in the future [3] - The company announced a shareholder return plan, with a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024-2026 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at CNY 22.763 billion (+1.5%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 947 million (+1.9%) [4] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 1.25, down from the previous estimate of CNY 1.47 [3] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 13.0%, with a gross margin of 35.1% [4] - The company's total number of stores reached 14,969, including 5,046 franchised stores, with 88% of new stores opened in advantageous regions [3] Industry and Market Data - The company operates in the pharmaceutical/consumer staples sector [4] - The 52-week stock price range is CNY 12.00-36.27, with a current market capitalization of CNY 10.263 billion [6] - The current P/E ratio is 10.84x, and the P/B ratio is 1.41x [4] Comparable Company Valuation - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2024E is 15x, with Yunnan Baiyao at 21x and Yifeng Pharmacy at 15x [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][18]. Core Views - The performance of the Foshan project exceeded expectations, and core projects are showing stable recovery. The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is set at 0.42, 0.50, and 0.57 CNY respectively, with a target price of 10.53 CNY [4][6]. Financial Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 618 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.08%, and a gross profit of 430 million CNY, with a gross margin of 69.58% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 299 million CNY, up 48.35% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 298 million CNY, an increase of 24.17% [4]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue projected to reach 2.732 billion CNY, a 41.8% increase from 2023 [5][13]. Project Performance - The report highlights that the Hangzhou project generated revenue of 293 million CNY in H1 2024, a 29.42% increase, while the Sanya project saw revenue of 112 million CNY, up 6.45% [4]. - The newly added heavy asset projects, such as the Xi'an project, turned a profit of 27 million CNY compared to a loss of 10 million CNY in the same period last year [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 7.52 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 7.44 to 13.06 CNY [6][7]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 19.706 billion CNY [7]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 17.85 for 2024, decreasing to 13.14 by 2026 [5][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve significantly, reaching 10.0% in 2024 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating and lowers the target price to 41.49 yuan from the previous 53.94 yuan [3][5][13]. Core Views - The company continues to experience adjustments, with a revenue decline that is narrowing. The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 13.27% year-on-year, which is slightly better than expected. The company is focusing on transforming its growth model, particularly in small regions with high market share, which is expected to stabilize its foundation for future growth [2][3][13]. - The report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 0.75 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 1.01 yuan respectively. This adjustment reflects the significant downward pressure on profitability during the adjustment phase [3][13]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 2.325 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 244 million yuan, down 55.4% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 0.75 yuan, with a net profit margin of 5.4% [4][12][13]. - The financial performance shows a significant drop in net profit and EPS, with the net profit margin declining to historical lows. The net profit for the first half of 2024 was 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [14][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is undergoing a channel model transformation, focusing on terminal and channel support, which has impacted gross sales margins. The gross sales margin decreased by 7.9 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 2024 [3][13]. - The report emphasizes the need for the company to avoid repeating past mistakes and to focus on improving its channel system and brand building. If successful, the company could enter a new phase of expansion as consumer demand recovers [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Gujing Gongjiu with a revised target price of 219.26 yuan, down from the previous 343.20 yuan [3][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue in Q2 2024 was slightly below expectations, but profit performance met expectations, indicating a steady cash flow. The report highlights the company's market share logic and continuous improvement in profitability, suggesting a strong certainty in future performance [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.519 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.507 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 16.79% and 24.57%, respectively [12]. - The revenue growth was slightly below expectations due to seasonal adjustments and a dip in consumer demand, while profit growth aligned with forecasts [12]. - The gross margin improved significantly year-on-year, attributed to product mix enhancements and reduced discounting [12]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The report notes a notable increase in the company's net profit margin, which rose by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, reaching historical highs [12]. - Cash flow from sales increased by 12.8% year-on-year, with contract liabilities at the end of the period amounting to 2.22 billion yuan, indicating stable cash flow performance [12]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of market share concentration in the liquor industry, suggesting that Gujing Gongjiu's solid provincial channels and product structure align with consumer trends, which may lead to sustained market share growth [3][12]. - The long-term outlook for the company is positive, with expectations of continued profitability improvements and a strong performance certainty [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of 145.20 CNY, down from the previous 173.00 CNY [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with a significant increase in profitability. The revenue reached 2.727 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 109.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 865 million CNY, with a second-quarter net profit of 541 million CNY, aligning with prior forecasts [3][4]. - The demand for 800G Ethernet is robust, presenting substantial growth opportunities for the company as it is one of the few suppliers capable of mass-producing 800G optical modules. The inventory increased significantly to 2.235 billion CNY, primarily due to a rise in raw material stock for production [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, raising the net profit estimates to 2.313 billion CNY, 5.147 billion CNY, and 6.147 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.26 CNY, 7.26 CNY, and 8.67 CNY [3][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 7.315 billion CNY, a significant increase of 136.2% compared to the previous year. The net profit is expected to rise by 236.1% to 2.313 billion CNY [9][11]. - The gross margin for Q2 reached 43.76%, while the net margin was 33.48%, indicating strong profitability metrics [3][4]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow to 9.795 billion CNY by 2024, with a net asset value per share of 8.81 CNY [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company achieved rapid revenue growth in H1 2024, with a revenue of 787 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 404 million yuan, up 44.4% [4][5]. - The report highlights the efficiency in cost control and the potential for new product launches to drive future growth, particularly in overseas markets [4][5]. - The target price for 2024 has been adjusted to 119.37 yuan from the previous 150.13 yuan, based on a target PE of 23X [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.489 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 640 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.0% [6][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 5.19 yuan, down from the previous estimate of 5.36 yuan [5][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in R&D investment efficiency, with R&D expenses in H1 2024 amounting to 94 million yuan, a decrease of 21.9% [5]. Product and Market Performance - Innovative products are identified as the main growth driver, with revenues from aortic stents reaching 610 million yuan, up 22.7%, and revenues from interventional stents increasing by 69.2% to 107 million yuan [5]. - The overseas market showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 67% in H1 2024, amounting to 70 million yuan [5]. - The company completed the acquisition of its joint venture in the UK, enhancing its international sales capabilities [5].