Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. - The target price is set at 28.57 CNY, with the current price at 22.31 CNY [9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in H1 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected net profit of 165-193 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-110% [4][3]. - The rapid growth in data center temperature control and the acceleration of electronic cooling solutions are highlighted as key growth drivers [4][3]. - The company has established a strong customer base in the data center sector, including major clients like Tencent and Alibaba, contributing to its growth [4][3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 3,529 million CNY in 2023 to 4,646 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 31.6% [18]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 344 million CNY in 2023 to 506 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 47.2% [18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2023 to 0.68 CNY in 2024 [18]. Business Development - The company is focusing on liquid cooling solutions, which are gaining traction due to the high-density heat generation in AI computing and data centers [4][3]. - The introduction of the Coolinside liquid cooling cabinet and comprehensive solutions is seen as a competitive advantage in the liquid cooling market [4][3]. - The company has optimized its product design and procurement strategies to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically for the beer sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that while the overall economic environment in 2Q24 is weak, profit growth remains resilient due to cost advantages, and the industry structure is still upgrading. It anticipates a potential improvement in the economic climate in 3Q24, with increased regional differentiation [1][12]. - The report suggests that the beer sector is experiencing a structural upgrade, with a projected positive growth in unit price despite a slight decline in sales volume [5][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Update - The report estimates a mid-single-digit decline in industry sales volume for 2Q24, which is an improvement compared to 1Q24. The overall unit price is expected to show positive growth, outpacing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Key trends identified for 3Q24 include: 1. **Regional Differentiation**: Consumption power varies significantly across provinces, with southern regions showing stronger consumer sentiment compared to northern areas. Tourist provinces are expected to perform better, contributing to incremental growth [5]. 2. **Price Band Differentiation**: The segment below 6 yuan is shrinking, while segments at 6 and 8 yuan remain stable. There are significant regional differences in the 10 yuan and above category, with potential for upgrades and channel expansion in certain areas [5]. 3. **Competitive Landscape Differentiation**: The concentration ratio (CR6) remains stable at 95%, with market share shifting towards regional companies and niche markets, particularly in Guangdong, Fujian, and other provinces [5]. Company Updates - **Qingdao Beer**: Expected to see a high single-digit decline in sales volume for 2Q24, with a slight positive growth in unit price. The company aims to recover sales losses in 3Q24 [6]. - **China Resources Beer**: Anticipated to experience a mid-single-digit decline in sales volume for 2Q24, with a low single-digit growth in unit price. The company is expected to see improved sales growth in 3Q24 [6]. - **Chongqing Beer**: Forecasted to achieve slight positive growth in sales volume for 2Q24, with stable pricing. The company is expected to benefit from tourism in Xinjiang and Yunnan [6]. - **Yanjing Beer**: Expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in sales volume for 1H24, with a double-digit profit growth anticipated for 2Q24 [6]. - **Zhujiang Beer**: The company forecasts a net profit increase of 27.1% to 46.7% year-on-year for 2Q24, with stable performance expected in the Guangdong market [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends accumulating shares of Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer, citing their potential for growth despite the current weak economic conditions [12].

投资建议:国内头部酒水饮料企业的品牌势能强劲、资源优势显著,具备海外扩张的能力,成配置重点。1)白酒建议增持。2)啤酒及饮料建 议增持。 积极海外布局,国际业务占比提升。二十世纪中下旬起,以三得利、朝日啤酒和宝酒造为代表的日本头部酒企陆续寻求出海以寻求新增。随着 海外业务的不断扩张,三大酒企的海外营收占比均持续提升,与本土业务条线形成较好补充。三得利2007-2023年间,海外营收由1,995亿 日元增长至1.5万亿日元,海外营收占比由13.3%提升至51.6%,目前海外市场覆盖亚太、美洲、欧洲。朝日啤酒2006-2023年间,海外营 收由1.4万亿日元增长至2.8万亿日元,海外营收占比3.9%提升至50.8%,海外市场覆盖欧洲、大洋洲、东南亚。2014-2023年间,宝酒造 海外营收由2100亿日元增长至3510亿日元,海外营收占比12.9%提升至48.1%,目前海外业务以美国为主要市场,2023年该地区营收占 比为24.8%。 日本酒企出海契机显现,差异化定位结合不同出海路径,推动海外业务规模提升。1)三得利通过国际奖项背书提升海外知名度,叠加日本文化 输出以及便利店渠道出海的行业东风,形成出海契机。而后 ...

财税改革完善中央与地方财政事权和支出责任划分,消费税或将弥补地方财力。(1)6月25日国务院作关于2023年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支的 审计工作报告,提及谋划新一轮财税体制改革,完善中央与地方财政事权和支出责任划分,加大均衡性转移支付力度。(2)根据国君策略组已发布研 报的观点,新一轮财税体制改革的核心在于保持宏观税率的稳定和央地财权事权再平衡。税制改革上聚焦扩大税基、培育地方主体税种及优化减税降 费。(3)根据国君宏观组已发布研报的观点,从消费税征税环节后移来看,客观上可能增加不超过2000亿税负弥补地方财力,更重要的积极意义在于 建立了地方通过减少一些消费场景制约来鼓励消费的激励机制。 财税修正建筑一利五率盈利模式,提升建筑公司PEG与DCF维度估值。(1)我们认为财税体制改革或将增加地方收入,或将增强地方政府投资能力和 支付能力,一方面建筑公司新签订合同预期或增加,另外一方面在手订单或将加速推进更多形成实物工作量和业绩,提升利润总额、净资产收益率与 PEG维度估值。(2)地方政府的支付能力和支付频率提升,或将增加建筑公司的经营性现金流流入,提升营业现金比率,并提升DCF维度估值。(3)消 费税、增值 ...

摘要: 我们通过复盘煤炭30年历史,揭露煤炭的投资发展脉络,找寻煤炭股的投资逻辑,我们认为煤炭行业过去30年是周期品投资框架的典型印证,紧跟经济波动 的脉搏。未来在资产荒问题逐步凸显背景下,煤炭红利资产的投资吸引力在不断增强。 深度复盘煤炭行业,过去30年是周期品投资框架的典型印证,紧跟经济波动的脉搏。煤炭作为我国最为主要的能源,在建国后紧跟经济发展的脉搏,投资的 主要逻辑还是聚焦经济发展带来的量价齐升的"周期品投资框架";但随着2011年以来中国经济发展的增速换挡,追求"高质量"发展,叠加2008年"四万 亿"脉冲式需求提升带来行业新增产能过度投放,2014-2015年煤炭钢铁行业跌落至全行业亏损的境遇。2016年为了解决煤炭钢铁行业产能过剩问题,"供 给侧改革"正式为煤炭行业的发展翻开了新的篇章,政策加码的"供给端"开始对于煤炭行业产生重要影响。而进入2020年以后,随着疫情后稳增长的发力及 供给侧改革的成效,煤炭的供需逐步走入紧平衡,量价均创历史新高。2020-2022年煤价逐步走强,行业盈利创历史新高,但本质依然逃不开"周期品的投 资框架"。 投资逻辑的换挡,周期品投资框架的弱化到红利优先,背后是深刻 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.00 CNY, based on a 14x PE valuation for 2025 [10][12]. Core Insights - The company's earnings forecast for H1 2024 is expected to be between 350 to 450 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.95% to 113.36%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 275 to 375 million CNY, indicating a significant growth of 269% to 403% [2][10]. - The report highlights that the company's growth is primarily driven by its outsourcing business, although the timing of subsidies may impact overall net profit growth [2][10]. - The report notes a substantial fluctuation in the earnings forecast due to macroeconomic conditions affecting existing business volumes, particularly in the core foreign enterprise segment in Beijing [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 38.31 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.25 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 548 million CNY in 2023 to 1.07 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.3% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 1.89 CNY in 2026 [12]. Business Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes that the growth in the outsourcing business is expected to continue, supported by the stability of key accounts and an increase in client size and job categories [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 274 million CNY, with a payout ratio of 50%, resulting in an approximate dividend yield of 3% based on the current stock price [2][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Date] 2024.07.12 公 司 更 新 报 告 [Table_Industry] ——众信旅游 24Q2 业绩预告点评 本报告导读： 业绩预告超预期，出境游量价恢复驱动公司收入和利润率快速恢复。公司受益格局阶 段性改善，后续将发力零售业务。 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 5.30-8.90 | | 总市值（百万元） | 6,486 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 983/815 | | 流通 B 股 /H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要 (LF) | | | 股东权益（百万元） | 780 | | 每股净资产（元） | 0.79 | | 市净率（现价） | 8.3 | | 净负债率 | -48.83% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on long-cycle upward assets, overseas expansion, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots as key areas for investment opportunities [3][4] - The oil service equipment sector is expected to benefit from high upstream capital expenditure, with a projected global oil industry upstream capital expenditure of $620 billion in 2024, a 10% increase year-on-year [8][11] - Container demand is anticipated to rise significantly due to a combination of economic recovery and trade congestion, with container sales expected to reach 4 million TEU in 2024 [3][30] - The shipbuilding industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by the end of low-price ship deliveries and favorable market conditions [3][58] Summary by Sections Long-Cycle Upward Sector - **Oil Service Equipment**: The sector is poised for growth due to increased capital expenditure from oil companies, with a projected capital expenditure of $620 billion in 2024, up 10% from the previous year [8][11] - **Containers**: The container market is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with 2024 container sales projected to reach 4 million TEU, driven by a recovery in global trade and inventory replenishment [3][30][37] - **Shipbuilding**: The shipbuilding sector is expected to improve profitability in Q2 2024, with quality ship manufacturers' gross margins projected to recover to 15-20% [3][58] Overseas Expansion Sector - **Injection Molding Machines**: The export growth indicates sustained overseas demand, with recommended stocks including Yizumi and beneficiaries like Haitian International [3] - **Tools**: The U.S. home improvement market is expected to recover, benefiting tool exports, with recommended stocks including Juxing Technology [3] - **Textile Equipment**: The textile machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with improving export demand and recommended stocks including Jack Sewing Machine [3] - **Construction Machinery**: The domestic market is recovering, with excavator sales expected to grow by approximately 20% year-on-year [3] New Technology Sector - **Low-Altitude Economy**: The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from supportive policies, with recommended stocks including Guodian Measurement [3] - **Humanoid Robots**: Advances in AI and robotics are enhancing interaction and control capabilities, with a focus on component suppliers [3] Recovery Sector - **3C Equipment**: The recovery in 3C devices is anticipated, with recommended stocks including Quick Intelligent and Optoelectronics [3] - **Semiconductor Equipment**: The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to enter an upward cycle, with a focus on domestic alternatives and capital expenditure [3]

股 票 研 究 航空仍具长逻辑,暑运将渐入佳境 | | | | |----------------|------------------|--------------------| | | | ——航空行业更新报告 | | [table_Authors | 岳鑫](分析师) | | | | 0755-23976758 | | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880514030006 本报告导读: 航空仍具长逻辑且预期回落低位。2024 年供需仍在恢复中。待供需恢复,考虑票价 市场化且机队增速放缓,中国航司盈利中枢上升仍将可期。建议关注逆向布局时机。 投资要点: [Table长逻辑: _Summary] 待供需恢复,中国航司盈利中枢上升可期。站在当下,我们 认为航空仍具盈利中枢上升的长逻辑。2019 年之前,中国航空业客座 率已居全球第二,持续多年盈利,但盈利能力显著低于海外航司。我 们认为核心原因在于:1)中国航空票价未市场化,导致干线高客座率 无法向票价传导。2)机队规模增长过快,干线空域时刻瓶颈凸显导致 三四线增投负向拖累整体票价水平。十三五末航空业票价市场化机制 基本完善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's half-year performance is expected to decline primarily due to falling product prices and increased tax costs, although both production and sales volumes have increased year-on-year [4]. - The company is progressing steadily with its production and construction efforts, with the repair of the No. 2 main shaft and the connection of the No. 3 main shaft expected to be completed within 2024 [4]. - The report has adjusted the EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 0.94 and 1.19 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.32 and 2.69 CNY, and introduced a new EPS forecast of 1.45 CNY for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been revised down to 18.85 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's higher production capacity elasticity compared to peers [4]. Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220-330 million CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 53.94%-69.29% [4]. - The average daily production of potash fertilizer is approximately 5,000-6,000 tons, with ongoing efforts to resolve water seepage issues [4]. - The company has successfully expanded into the Brazilian market, enhancing its sales channels and creating new market opportunities [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 16.26 CNY, with a target price of 18.85 CNY, indicating potential upside [2][4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 15.103 billion CNY and a net asset value per share of 12.15 CNY [5].