Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced pressure in Q3, with sales from both Swiss watches and proprietary brands underperforming. The company is actively optimizing its channel structure and cultivating new growth points, awaiting business stabilization and recovery [2][3][4] - Revenue for the first three quarters was 3.04 billion yuan, down 13.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 198 million yuan, down 25.6%. Q3 single-quarter revenue was 963 million yuan, down 17.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, down 35.4% [3][4] - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 has been revised down to 0.61, 0.68, and 0.75 yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of -26%, 13%, and 10% [3][4] - The target price has been adjusted to 12.20 yuan, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024, down from a previous estimate of 12.57 yuan [2][3][9] Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 4.57 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected decline to 3.98 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4.39 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.77 billion yuan in 2026 [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 333 million yuan in 2023, decreasing to 247 million yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 278 million yuan in 2025 and 305 million yuan in 2026 [3][4] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 37.2%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.5%, down 1.03 percentage points [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a focus on the long-term growth potential in OLED and semiconductor manufacturing materials [4]. - Due to a slowdown in downstream demand for functional materials and pharmaceutical businesses, the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 0.45, 0.58, and 0.72 yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 14.21 yuan from the previous 14.59 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 32X for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, down 48.57% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 806 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.84% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.83% [4]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 39.67% and 13.06%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.41 percentage points and 6.34 percentage points [4]. Market and Industry Outlook - The demand for zeolite and pharmaceutical products is under pressure, but the report remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the company [3][4]. - The company is seeing growth in OLED sublimation and finished materials, as well as semiconductor manufacturing materials, with various product developments progressing smoothly [4]. - The establishment of joint ventures and closer cooperation with downstream enterprises is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects [4].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.31 —慕思股份 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038184 | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | | --- | |----------------------------| | | | 毛宇翔 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038672 | | maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com | | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 行业经营压力增大，公司通过门店升级、SKU 优化和品类改革积极应对，以旧换新 有望提振业绩。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 调整盈利预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 110.00 CNY, up from a previous forecast of 48.60 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth is attributed to the rapid development of its securities business, while profit decline is primarily due to decreased revenue from financial information services and increased sales expenses. The market is currently active, and there is optimism for a performance rebound [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the adjusted revenue (including investment business income) is reported at 87.5 million CNY, with a net profit of -11 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year change of -19.62% and -171.18%, respectively, which is below expectations [8]. - The company’s revenue increased year-on-year, mainly driven by the rapid growth of its securities brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with net commission income reaching 135 million CNY, up 125.92% year-on-year, and net interest income at 46 million CNY, up 92.70% [8]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the market is showing signs of recovery, with the Wande All A Index rising 28% from September 24 to October 30, and daily stock trading volume reaching 2 trillion CNY, which is expected to benefit both the financial information services and securities businesses [8]. - The company is in the process of issuing stock to specific investors, which is currently under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the progress has been slower than expected due to various factors [8]. Financial Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 104 million CNY, 408 million CNY, and 588 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.26 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.44 CNY [8][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales expenses, which rose by 25% year-on-year to 479 million CNY in Q3 2024, attributed to expanded brand promotion and customer acquisition efforts [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 61.40 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 0.70 times [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.68 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 116.7%, driven by a resonance between assets and liabilities [2][3]. - The strong recovery in new business value (NBV) and significant improvement in investment income due to the recovery of the equity market are highlighted as key factors for profit enhancement [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of 20.68 billion CNY, with a quarterly net profit of 9.597 billion CNY in Q3, compared to a loss of 433 million CNY in the same period last year [2][3]. - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at 9.00, 9.54, and 10.28 CNY respectively [3]. New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV increased by 79.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with new policies growing by 11.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in new policies in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 162.8%, attributed to strong customer demand for insurance savings [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment assets reached 1.6 trillion CNY, a 20.3% increase from the beginning of the year, benefiting from stable cash flow from premium sales [3]. - The annualized total investment return rate improved to 6.8%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Data - The stock price ranged from 27.92 to 51.73 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 149.769 billion CNY [4]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 29.18 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 1.6 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that due to lower-than-expected infrastructure investment in the construction industry, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.50, 1.56, and 1.60 yuan, representing increases of 3%, 4%, and 3% respectively [2]. - The target price is set at 14.10 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.4 times for 2024 [2]. - The company reported a 0.6% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, which was below expectations, alongside an increase in accounts receivable [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 536.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.3 billion yuan, down 0.61% year-on-year [2]. - The expense ratio for the first three quarters was 6.14%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 3.03%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The weighted return on equity (ROE) was 5.60%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -77.03 billion yuan, compared to -49.83 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Order Growth - New signed orders for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 9.3%, with urban construction orders growing by 20% [2]. - The total new signed contracts amounted to 1,280.5 billion yuan, with infrastructure contracts at 1,149.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [2]. - The company signed 319.6 billion yuan in new contracts in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.14 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.28 billion yuan [2]. - The current dividend yield is 4.21%, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.61 times, which is at the 27th percentile of the past 10 years [2].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 7.88 CNY [3][10] Core Views - The company's 3Q24 performance showed steady growth, with revenue of 31.6 billion CNY, up 1.1% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion CNY, up 0.9% YoY [10] - The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire coastal thermal power assets from its parent group, with a total consideration of 7.17 billion CNY [2][10] - The acquisition includes approximately 16.0 GW of conventional energy assets, with coal-fired capacity of 7.6 GW and gas-fired capacity of 8.4 GW [10] Financial Performance - 1~3Q24 revenue was 84.8 billion CNY, down 6.5% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.16 billion CNY, up 14.6% YoY [10] - 3Q24 gross profit was 3.13 billion CNY, up 2.2% YoY, with a gross margin of 9.9%, up 0.1 ppts YoY and 1.1 ppts QoQ [10] - 3Q24 electricity generation was 63.0 billion kWh, up 3.2% YoY, with coal-fired generation at 53.4 billion kWh, up 16.7% YoY [10] - The average on-grid tariff in 3Q24 was 0.511 CNY/kWh, up 1.6% YoY and 0.1% QoQ [10] Asset Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves issuing 680 million shares at 5.05 CNY per share, accounting for 6.2% of the total share capital post-acquisition [10] - The total consideration of 7.17 billion CNY implies a PB multiple of 1.6x and a PE multiple of 13.5x based on 2023 net profit of 530 million CNY [10] - The acquired assets represent 27.2% of the company's installed capacity as of 1H24 and 25.1% of the parent group's non-listed conventional energy capacity as of 2023 [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to 124.9 billion CNY in 2024, 126.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 125.6 billion CNY in 2026 [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.44 billion CNY in 2024, 6.53 billion CNY in 2025, and 6.99 billion CNY in 2026 [9] - EPS is projected to be 0.63 CNY in 2024, 0.64 CNY in 2025, and 0.69 CNY in 2026 [10] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 13.05x for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.16x in 2024 and 8.45x in 2026 [9] - The current P/B ratio is 0.85x, with a target P/B ratio of 0.81x in 2024 [9] - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.6% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 60.71 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.10x [3][7] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 173.2% YoY, driven by a significant improvement in investment income due to the recovery of the equity market [5][7] - The New Business Value (NBV) met expectations, with a YoY increase of 25.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, supported by stable agent numbers and improved quality [7] - The investment asset scale grew steadily, reaching CNY 6.4 trillion by the end of Q3 2024, up 12.3% from the beginning of the year, with a total investment yield of 5.38% in the first three quarters, up 2.57 percentage points YoY [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be CNY 445,527 million, a 29% increase from 2023A, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach CNY 112,417 million, a 143% increase YoY [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 3.98, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20% [8] - The company's total investment yield for 2024E is expected to be 6.5%, with a net investment yield of 3.6% [11] Business Highlights - The individual insurance channel achieved stable growth in agent numbers, with 641,000 agents by the end of Q3 2024, up 1.1% from the beginning of the year, and a 17.7% YoY increase in monthly per capita first-year premium [7] - The proportion of first-year premium with a term of 10 years or more reached 46.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 2.6 percentage points from the end of the first half [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 10.65x, with a P/B ratio of 2.12x and a P/EV ratio of 0.77x [12] - The embedded value per share for 2024E is projected to be CNY 54.8, with a dividend yield of 1.2% [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's performance fell short of expectations due to demand fluctuations and the recognition of certain one-time expenses. Improvements from organizational and personnel adjustments will require more time to manifest [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 1.09, 1.15, and 1.32 yuan respectively, reflecting decreases of 0.29, 0.25, and 0.26 yuan [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 7.25 billion yuan, with subsequent years at 10.39 billion and 12.19 billion yuan [4]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 38.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.10% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, down 43.08% [4][5]. - The company opened 469 new stores and closed 221, resulting in a net increase of 248 stores in Q3 [4]. Operational Insights - The report highlights that the company's main business has not yet shown signs of improvement, with domestic RevPAR down 8.38% and average daily rate (ADR) down 10.5% in Q3 [4]. - The increase in sales expenses and income tax, along with a decrease in asset disposal gains, contributed to the profit decline [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand starting in 2025, with operational and performance improvements anticipated [4]. - The target price has been raised to 34.80 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025, which is above the industry average [4][6].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 29.07 CNY [3][5] Core Views - The company is transitioning to a data and intelligent solutions provider focusing on platform construction and application services, with significant growth in mainland China and Southeast Asia [2] - AI product effectiveness is becoming more prominent, which is expected to further enhance the company's brand strength [2] - The company's business model continues to optimize, with strong growth in overseas markets, maintaining EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 0.68/0.85/1.04 CNY, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 35.33x [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 1.573 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, with Q3 revenue at 569 million CNY, up 11.63% year-on-year [3] - Mainland China revenue for the first three quarters was 735 million CNY, up 11.33% year-on-year, while non-mainland revenue was 838 million CNY, up 11.11% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its presence in Thailand and Vietnam, with revenue from Chinese enterprises going overseas increasing by 58% year-on-year in the first three quarters [3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid growth due to AI-driven demand for new and expanded factories, while the automotive parts industry is seeing increased demand for AI in industrial scenarios [3] - The company is focusing on innovative AI applications, such as the "AI+ process-oriented PLM" solution and the Chat CAD application, which leverages large model technology for design management and document generation [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 1.995 billion CNY, increasing to 2.228 billion CNY in 2023, and is forecasted to reach 2.605 billion CNY in 2024, 3.062 billion CNY in 2025, and 3.566 billion CNY in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 134 million CNY in 2022, 150 million CNY in 2023, and is expected to be 184 million CNY in 2024, 230 million CNY in 2025, and 283 million CNY in 2026 [4] - EPS for 2022 was 0.49 CNY, 0.55 CNY in 2023, and is forecasted to be 0.68 CNY in 2024, 0.85 CNY in 2025, and 1.04 CNY in 2026 [4] - ROE (diluted) was 7.3% in 2022 and 2023, and is expected to increase to 8.1% in 2024, 9.2% in 2025, and 10.3% in 2026 [4] - The current P/E ratio is 48.42x for 2022, 43.13x for 2023, and is forecasted to be 35.25x in 2024, 28.15x in 2025, and 22.88x in 2026 [4] Market Data - The 52-week stock price range is 13.60-27.21 CNY [6] - The total market capitalization is 6.481 billion CNY [6] - The total shares outstanding are 271 million, with 270 million A-shares in circulation [6] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from AI-driven demand for new and expanded factories [3] - The automotive parts industry is seeing increased demand for AI in industrial scenarios [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry is rapidly upgrading to intelligent equipment and eliminating outdated production capacity [3]