股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 长江电力 2024 年三季报点评 水电主业量价齐升，投资收益稳健增长 长江电力(600900) [Table_Industry] 电力/公用事业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------|-------|--------|----------------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 于鸿光 ( 分析师 ) | 孙辉贤 ( 分析师 ) | | 汪玥 ( | 研究助理 | ) | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2][3] - Target price raised to 71.82 RMB (previously 52.96 RMB) [2][3] Core Views - Strong growth in backlog, with TIDES business contributing significantly to future growth [2] - Revenue for 2024 Q1-Q3 was 27.702 billion RMB (-6.23% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.533 billion RMB (-19.11% YoY) [2] - Q3 revenue was 10.461 billion RMB (-1.96% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.293 billion RMB (-17.02% YoY) [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 adjusted to 3.34/3.78/4.27 RMB, reflecting improved profitability from cost reductions and capacity utilization [2] Business Performance - Chemical business revenue grew 10.4% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3, excluding COVID-related commercial orders [2] - Testing business revenue declined 4.9% YoY, with clinical CRO and SMO revenue growing 3.4% and 16% respectively [2] - Biology business revenue declined 3.6% YoY, but new molecule types grew 6.0% [2] - High-end therapy CTDMO business revenue declined 17.0% YoY due to early-stage commercialization and project delays [2] - Backlog as of 2024 Q3 reached 43.82 billion RMB, up 35.2% YoY, with revenue from top 20 global pharmaceutical companies at 11.22 billion RMB [2] TIDES Business - TIDES business revenue grew 71.0% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3, reaching 3.55 billion RMB [2] - Backlog for TIDES business increased 196% YoY, with D&M service customers growing 20% and molecules served growing 22% [2] - Capacity expansion expected, with solid-phase synthesis reactor volume projected to reach 41,000L by end of 2024 [2] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue forecast at 39.459 billion RMB (-2.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 9.638 billion RMB (+0.3% YoY) [8] - 2025E revenue forecast at 44.451 billion RMB (+12.7% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.905 billion RMB (+13.1% YoY) [8] - 2026E revenue forecast at 49.858 billion RMB (+12.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 12.336 billion RMB (+13.1% YoY) [8] - ROE expected to remain stable at around 16.3%-16.4% from 2024E to 2026E [8] Valuation and Market Data - Current price at 52.00 RMB, with a 52-week range of 36.87-90.88 RMB [4] - Market capitalization at 150.176 billion RMB, with 2.888 billion total shares and 2.501 billion A-shares outstanding [4] - P/E ratio for 2024E at 15.58x, with P/B ratio at 2.55x [8] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a 2024E P/E of 18.85x and Pharmaron (300759 SZ) with a 2024E P/E of 30.25x [10] - Average P/E for comparable companies in 2024E is 22.4x [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous high growth in Q3 2024, with improved profitability and sustained growth momentum expected in the future [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company's performance met expectations, achieving a revenue of 10.905 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 970 million yuan, up 155.95% year-on-year [11]. 2. Revenue: Multi-Business Resonance, Continued High Growth - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.75%. Key revenue drivers included: - Self-branded scooter sales of 361,200 units, generating 693 million yuan (approximately flat year-on-year) - Electric two-wheeler sales of 937,600 units, generating 2.592 billion yuan (up 57% year-on-year) - All-terrain vehicle sales of 5,874 units, generating 259 million yuan (up 35% year-on-year) - Robotic lawnmower revenue of 145 million yuan (up 625% year-on-year) [12]. 3. Profit: Scale Effect Released, Profit Margin Improved - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 28.46%, an increase of 3.28 percentage points year-on-year. The improvement was attributed to: - Rapid volume growth across categories leading to scale effects - Increased proportion of high-margin electric two-wheelers - Higher contribution from robotic and all-terrain vehicles [13]. 4. Assets and Cash Flow: Accelerated Turnover, Record Contract Liabilities - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and trading financial assets totaling 7.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.08%. The turnover days for inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable were 43.32, 24.24, and 75.59 days, respectively, showing improvements [14]. - Contract liabilities reached a record high of 762 million yuan, indicating strong dealer payment enthusiasm [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain high growth, with EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 16.74, 22.58, and 29.33 yuan, representing growth rates of +100.6%, +34.9%, and +29.9%, respectively. The target price is set at 58.60 yuan, corresponding to a valuation multiple of 25.9 times for 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, with a focus on the anticipated implementation of the Guangdong long-term electricity price [3][8] - The current electricity pricing mechanism does not adequately reflect the supporting and regulating value of thermal power, awaiting the long-term electricity price in Guangdong [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 42.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, down 15.0% [8] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 16.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 35.2% [8] - The gross profit for Q3 2024 was 2.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.6%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Electricity Generation and Pricing - The company's electricity generation volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total on-grid electricity of 33.24 billion kWh [8] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 2024 was 0.521 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company is steadily advancing its construction projects, with a total installed capacity of 8.0 GW for coal power, 2.7 GW for gas power, 0.6 GW for wind power, and 4.0 GW for solar power as of the end of Q3 2024 [8] - The company has a project reserve of approximately 2.0 GW, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 3.33 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% [8] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to 5.76 yuan from the previous 6.35 yuan, based on a 2025 PE valuation of 18 times, considering the company's substantial installed capacity growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price raised to 51.56 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 0.75 times [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 65.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment income. The third quarter alone saw a remarkable 96.5% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance accelerated, with a 37.9% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 75.3% increase in the third quarter [10]. - The property insurance combined ratio (COR) remained stable at 98.7%, supported by effective business quality control and strict expense management [10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are adjusted to 4.60 CNY, 5.32 CNY, and 6.31 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting increases of 23.1%, 15.4%, and 9.0% [10]. - The total investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net investment return rate was 2.9%, down by 0.1 percentage points [10]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 369,084 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 21.79 CNY and 40.76 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 34.31 CNY [5]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 357,780 million CNY [5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the current price is 9.57, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.82 [12]. - The company’s net asset value per share is projected to reach 28.45 CNY in 2024, with a corresponding P/EV of 0.54 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.35 yuan, down from the previous target of 4.20 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 declined significantly due to falling vanadium prices, with revenue dropping by 6.12% YoY to 10.474 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders plummeting by 78.92% YoY to 183 million yuan [9] - Despite the decline in vanadium prices, the company's production remained stable, with vanadium and titanium product output holding steady [2] - The report expects the company's performance to gradually recover as downstream demand improves [2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2024 was 68 million yuan, 69 million yuan, and 46 million yuan respectively, showing a further decline in Q3 [9] - The report revised down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to 215 million yuan and 435 million yuan, respectively, and introduced a 2026 forecast of 583 million yuan [9] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.02 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.06 yuan, respectively [9] Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company sold 25,700 tons of vanadium products, up 6.02% YoY, while titanium slag and titanium dioxide sales were 98,800 tons and 128,600 tons, down 7.13% and 2.35% YoY, respectively [9] - The average selling price of vanadium products in H1 2024 was 83,000 yuan/ton, down 29% YoY, leading to a 25% decline in vanadium product revenue [9] Industry and Market Trends - The oversupply of vanadium products in 2024, driven by declining demand from the rebar sector, has pressured prices and dragged down the company's profits [9] - The titanium sector showed stable profitability, with titanium slag and titanium dioxide revenues increasing by 6.01% and 23.1% YoY in H1 2024, respectively [9] - The vanadium battery industry is steadily developing, with the company supplying over 16,000 tons of high-quality raw materials for vanadium electrolyte production as of Q3 2024 [9] Valuation and Comparables - The company is valued at 2.5x PB for 2024, slightly below the industry average of 2.56x PB, based on comparable companies such as Oriental Tantalum and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [12][13] - The company's current price is 2.86 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 2.24-3.62 yuan and a market capitalization of 26.584 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 219.26 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations with revenue of 5.263 billion CNY and net profit of 1.174 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.36% and 13.60% respectively [2][13]. - The report highlights the company's strong channel control and profitability, with a net profit margin of 22.3% in Q3 2024, indicating stable profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin [3][12][13]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its pricing strategy and cost control, with a forecasted EPS of 10.66 CNY, 12.06 CNY, and 13.41 CNY for 2024-2026 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 23.587 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.5% compared to 2023 [4]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 5.637 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [4]. - The company’s net asset return rate is forecasted to be 23.3% for 2024, maintaining a strong financial position [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Juewei Foods (603517) [2][5]. Core Views - The performance of Juewei Foods meets expectations, with improving profit margins. However, the earnings forecast has been lowered due to a higher-than-expected store closure rate. The target price has been raised to 23.32 CNY from 15.51 CNY, reflecting a valuation premium based on comparable company valuations and expectations of consumer recovery and a potential second growth curve [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 3Q24 was 1.675 billion CNY, down 13.29% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 143 million CNY, down 3.33% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 143 million CNY, up 2.11% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for 3Q24 was 31.12%, an increase of 5.35 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 8.53%, up 1.29 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been adjusted to 0.81 CNY, 0.90 CNY, and 1.01 CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.93 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.11 CNY [3][4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 17.98 CNY, with a target price of 23.32 CNY, indicating significant upside potential [5][6]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 11.146 billion CNY and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.16 for 2024 [4][6]. Investment Outlook - The report highlights that the second growth curve is still expanding, with investments in companies like Liaoji continuing to open new stores, although profitability remains under pressure [3][4]. - The overall investment income has been impacted by macroeconomic pressures, leading to a reported loss in investment income for the first nine months of the year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is undergoing an adjustment phase, with revenue and profit under pressure, leading to a downward revision of earnings forecasts. The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.08 (-0.43), 1.59 (-0.55), and 2.01 (-0.69) yuan respectively. The overall cost reduction potential is significant, and the company has substantial room for profit improvement compared to peers in the medical beauty sector. A PS valuation method is used, with a target price raised to 78.86 (+16.05) yuan, reflecting a market sentiment recovery [2][4] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 387.5 million, 36.2 million, and 32.7 million yuan, respectively, showing declines of 8%, 30%, and 25% year-on-year. Q3 figures were 106 million, 2 million, and 1.1 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 7%, 77%, and 85% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 72.4%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of high-margin medical terminal business. The net profit margin was 1.7%, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to revenue decline and rigid expense rates [2] - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 42.5%, 16.6%, and 10.6%, showing year-on-year changes of -3.1, +6.6, and +2.7 percentage points respectively [2] Business Performance - The medical beauty segment performed relatively well, with medical terminal revenue expected to grow approximately 45% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024. The company’s new medical beauty products are set to launch in Q4 2024, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on two main directions: glyco-biology and regenerative medicine, with new skincare products being launched. The management team has been adjusted, and the company is concentrating on precise cell regulation and self-repair mechanisms [2]

Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating with a target price of 29.48 RMB [3][5] Core Views - The company's orders have increased year-on-year, driving a 64% YoY growth in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3] - The company is actively expanding into non-power sectors such as steel, metallurgy, chemical, and new energy, with a focus on hydrogen production projects [3] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily due to the upcoming delivery of a photovoltaic hydrogen production project [2][3] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue reached 255 million RMB, a 60% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.83 million RMB, up 27% YoY [3] - 2024E revenue is projected to be 1.427 billion RMB, a 38.6% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million RMB, up 61.9% YoY [4] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.14 RMB, increasing to 1.78 RMB in 2025E and 1.91 RMB in 2026E [3][4] Strategic Developments - The company plans to raise 150 million RMB through a private placement to its controlling shareholder and chairman, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's growth [3] - The company is constructing a 120 MW fishing and photovoltaic complementary project in Jiaozhou, Shandong, which includes 20 MW of hydrogen production equipment [3] Industry and Market Position - The company primarily serves large state-owned power enterprises, with a focus on extending its product offerings to non-power industries [3] - Comparable companies in the industry have an average 2025E PE of 16x, while the company is given a 17x PE due to its expansion into hydrogen production [3] Financial Projections - 2025E revenue is expected to reach 1.796 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 219 million RMB [4] - ROE is projected to increase from 14.2% in 2024E to 19.3% in 2025E [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 12.02x in 2024E to 7.71x in 2025E [4]