Workflow
icon
Search documents
游戏产业跟踪(15):9月游戏版号发放,新游周期和行业景气向上趋势有望持续
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 14:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - The issuance of game licenses in September, with approvals for companies like Kaiying, Giant Network, and Point Point, indicates a positive trend in the new game cycle and overall industry prosperity. The performance of several new games, such as Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend," is expected to drive the product cycle and industry sentiment upward. The combination of new game cycles, favorable policies, and AI catalysis suggests that the gaming sector still has upward valuation potential, warranting continued attention to investment opportunities in this area [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In September, a total of 156 game licenses were issued, including 145 domestic and 11 imported games. This brings the total number of domestic game licenses issued this year to 1,195, nearing the annual total of 1,306 from 2024 [6][9]. Market Performance - The gaming market in China showed a month-on-month growth, with August revenues reaching 29.263 billion yuan, a 0.61% increase from the previous month. The mobile gaming market accounted for 21.541 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.85% month-on-month growth [9]. New Game Launches - Several new games are set to launch or have recently launched, including Kaiying's "The Legend of the Adventure" and Heartbeat's "Yise," which quickly topped the iOS and TapTap charts. The report highlights a rich pipeline of upcoming games from major developers, indicating potential for revenue growth [6][9].
第五大矿山投产在即,四大矿山会减产挺价吗?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 14:43
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 第五大矿山投产在即,四大矿山会减产挺价吗? [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC:S0490512070002 SAC:S0490519030001 SAC:S0490520080012 SAC:S0490525080005 SFC:BQT626 SFC:BUY139 SFC:BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 第一,参照历史,在 [Table_Summary] 2009 年~2016 年,第四大矿山 FMG 快速崛起的过程中,面对 FMG 的供给 冲击,彼时三大矿山并未减产。第二,参考下限,2015 年铁矿价格在国内钢铁需求衰减+自身供给 过剩的压制下,2015 年铁矿均价跌至 55.5 美元/吨,四大矿山依然保持增产,本轮西芒杜完全投 产后,预期铁矿价格下跌至 75~80 美元/吨,四大矿山触发减产或更难。第三,参考指引,过往来 看,四大矿山均为上市公司,对指引的产量目标也多能实现。根据四大矿山产量指引和新增产能, 预计 25/26 年四大矿供给分别+1.1%/+2.9%,依旧保持增产。 ...
中药行业框架
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 12:42
Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, indicating an optimistic outlook for the sector over the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The TCM industry is experiencing a resurgence due to supportive government policies aimed at promoting its development and modernization. The report highlights the importance of innovation in TCM as a key driver for high-quality growth [24][61]. - The industry is characterized by a comprehensive supply chain, from raw material production to manufacturing and distribution, with significant opportunities for growth in both domestic and international markets [19][28]. Summary by Sections 1. TCM Industry Overview - TCM is defined as medicines guided by traditional Chinese medical theories, primarily sourced from natural products, including plant, animal, and mineral-based drugs. It is categorized into five main types: raw materials, decoction pieces, formula granules, proprietary Chinese medicines, and injectable TCM [12][13]. - The historical development of TCM has undergone three major phases, including skepticism during the introduction of Western medicine, a resurgence in the 21st century, and recent government initiatives to modernize and industrialize TCM [15][16]. 2. TCM Policy Analysis - The overall policy direction is supportive, with multiple government documents issued to encourage the high-quality development of the TCM industry. Key policies include the "Opinions on Promoting the Inheritance and Innovation of TCM" and various local measures [24][28]. - Policies cover supply-side improvements, such as optimizing TCM registration and approval processes, enhancing talent training, and building TCM hospitals [28][32]. - Payment reforms are also underway, exploring payment methods that align with TCM characteristics, which could enhance the financial viability of TCM services [45][46]. 3. Future Development Trends - Innovation in TCM is identified as a critical factor for future growth, with a focus on developing new formulations and improving the sustainability of TCM resources [61][63]. - TCM is positioned to become a significant player in the broader health and wellness market, emphasizing preventive care and holistic health approaches [66].
长江大消费行业2025年10月金股推荐
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 12:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance over the next 12 months [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [3][6]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and operational efficiency improvements [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 227.9 billion, 413.8 billion, and 447.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 7, and 6 [10][25]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 10.9 billion, 13.6 billion, and 16.4 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [11][25]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Core International (科锐国际) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.95 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.60 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [12][25]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xusheng Group (旭升集团) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.6 billion, 6.2 billion, and 7.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 29, and 23 [13][25]. Textiles and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Bosideng (波司登) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 39.3 billion, 43.5 billion, and 47.5 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [16][25]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.35 billion, 8.38 billion, and 12.19 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35.7, 31.6, and 21.9 [17][25]. Food - Recommended Stock: Qianhe Flavoring (千禾味业) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.50 billion, 0.42 billion, and 0.53 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.1, 26.9, and 21.4 [18][25]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Roborock (石头科技) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 20.47 billion, 28.87 billion, and 34.24 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 19, and 16 [21][25]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at -1.30 billion, -0.91 billion, and -0.34 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 66.3 for 2027 [22][25].
御风系列:景气新周期起点,重视下半年三大边际催化
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 11:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle of prosperity, with significant growth expected in both offshore and onshore wind projects, driven by domestic and international factors [10][12] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a comprehensive release of performance, with three major catalysts identified: the initiation of deep-sea offshore wind projects, accelerated exports, and recovery in wind turbine profitability [19][102] Summary by Sections Medium to Long Term: New Cycle of Prosperity - Domestic wind power economics are significantly improving, with a positive trend in installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12] - The report highlights that overseas offshore wind power has vast potential, with countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific setting ambitious installation targets for 2030 [16][17] Short Term: Performance Release in H2 2025 - The report forecasts that wind power installations in 2025 could reach 110 GW, with onshore installations expected to hit 100 GW and offshore installations potentially doubling to 10 GW [22] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated prosperity, supported by the seasonal increase in project initiations [23] Catalysts for Growth - **Catalyst 1**: Acceleration of deep-sea offshore projects, with significant capacity planned across various provinces, totaling approximately 128.3 GW [28][32] - **Catalyst 2**: A turning point in offshore wind installations is expected in 2026, with domestic companies actively pursuing international orders [60] - **Catalyst 3**: Recovery in profitability for wind turbines is anticipated, driven by stable pricing and reduced competition [67][93]
AI产业跟踪:通义Qwen3-Max正式发布,引领“参数革命”,持续关注大模型商业化进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 10:56
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪:通义 Qwen3-Max 正式发布,引领 "参数革命",持续关注大模型商业化进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 24 日云栖大会上通义千问重磅发布一揽子模型。其中 Qwen3-Max 正式发布, 系通义迄今为止规模最大、能力最强的模型。模型包含三个主要版本:Base(基础版本)、Instruct (指令优化版本)和 Thinking(推理增强版本)。 Qwen3-Max 正式发布定位旗舰,总参数超 万亿,主推 Coding 能力和 Agent 工具调用能力,综合性能宣布超过 GPT-5、Claude Opus 4 等国际顶尖模型,正式跻身全球大模型前三阵营。持续关注国内 AI Infra 厂商业务进展与投入, 看好 Agent 商业化元年及其投资机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC:S0490520030004 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cj ...
开辟未来产业新赛道,关注量子信息、脑机接口等产业投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 09:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The 25th China International Industry Fair highlighted the need to cultivate emerging industries and create new growth drivers, focusing on technology innovation, large-scale development, and application scenario construction [2][5] - Key areas of investment opportunity include the entire quantum technology industry chain, particularly quantum system platforms and applications, as well as the brain-computer interface industry chain and its downstream applications [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the opening of the 25th China International Industry Fair in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of nurturing emerging industries and establishing a growth mechanism for future industries [5] Industry Evolution - The report notes that quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces are transitioning from laboratory research to practical applications, with significant advancements in hardware materials [10] - In the medical field, brain-computer interfaces can assist paralyzed patients in controlling exoskeletons through thought, while in consumer technology, they may change interactions with electronic devices [10] Policy Support - The report indicates that supportive policies are being implemented to promote future industries, with a focus on systematic layout at the national strategic level [10] - The report cites a joint opinion issued by multiple government departments aimed at fostering innovation and development in future industries [10] Future Industry Potential - The report highlights that future industries such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information are still in their early stages, presenting significant growth potential [10] - It suggests that with strong policy support, these industries are expected to accelerate their development and become important components of China's economy [10]
国机采标准更新,关注信创产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 09:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Viewpoints - The update of the procurement standards for desktop and portable computers by the central government is expected to benefit the domestic chip industry chain, domestic operating system industry chain, and Huawei's industry chain [2][14]. - The updated standards aim to enhance the hardware performance of domestic PCs, reduce procurement and operational costs, and improve market competitiveness [14]. - The new procurement standards will likely guide local procurement and accelerate the adoption of domestic products, with significant updates expected by 2025 and 2027 [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - On September 22, 2025, the central government procurement website released a notification updating the procurement configuration standards for desktop and portable computers [7]. Event Commentary - The updated standards include adjustments in CPU models, CPU frequency, memory read/write speeds, and graphics card types, aiming to improve the performance of domestic PCs [14]. - The standards emphasize the need for compliance with security and reliability assessments for CPUs and operating systems during procurement [14]. - The restrictions on non-domestic configurations are expected to increase the domestic product adoption rate, with the shipment of domestic PCs projected to rise significantly [14].
2025Q4投资策略:创新药投资手册
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 09:15
Group 1: Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The development of innovative pharmaceuticals in China is driven by a significant increase in high-quality graduates in relevant fields, with the number of R&D personnel in the biotech sector rising from 150,000 in 2015 to 450,000 in 2023 [11][16][22] - Chinese biotech companies are experiencing rapid growth in early clinical pipelines, with a notable increase in the number of original innovative drugs (FIC) entering clinical stages, surpassing the United States in the number of original innovative drugs approved for clinical trials from 2015 to 2024 [16][18] - The number of Chinese companies participating in global academic conferences like AACR has increased significantly, with 126 companies presenting nearly 300 new drug research results at the 2025 AACR conference [16][18] Group 2: Market Opportunities and Trends - The global market for immune-oncology (IO) therapies is substantial, with sales projected to reach approximately $56.27 billion by 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [33][40] - The second-generation IO therapies are expected to replace first-generation therapies and address unmet clinical needs, with a market size estimated to approach $738 billion [40][43] - The self-immune targeted drug market is projected to reach nearly $200 billion, with several blockbuster products emerging, indicating a lucrative opportunity for pharmaceutical companies [43][48] Group 3: Business Development and Collaborations - There has been a surge in business development (BD) transactions involving Chinese pharmaceutical companies, particularly in high-barrier products like ADCs and bispecific antibodies, with transaction amounts reaching new highs [27][52] - Notable BD transactions include significant upfront payments and milestone payments for innovative drug projects, showcasing the increasing value of Chinese assets in the global market [29][52] - The pricing of products from Chinese companies is generally lower compared to their overseas counterparts, suggesting that Chinese assets are undervalued and present attractive investment opportunities [52][54]
流动性和机构行为周度观察:跨季阶段资金面波动,央行精准投放流动性-20250929
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-29 08:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].