Overall Insights - The report emphasizes that the core driver of the electric new industry is "demand," while "price" contributes additional elasticity. The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new demand cycle due to changes in underlying demand drivers [4][7][26]. - Macro-level trends indicate that the direction of renewable energy development remains unchanged, with clear trends in artificial intelligence and embodied intelligence industries [4][7]. - At the mid-level, the focus shifts to high-quality development of renewable energy, with consumption becoming central, and AI expected to drive global electricity demand growth [4][7]. - Micro-level analysis shows that various segments within the electric new industry will benefit to varying degrees [4][7]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is positioned as the main line for renewable energy consumption, with North American AI contributing elasticity. The global energy storage installation growth rate is expected to reach 60%-80% by 2026, with the energy storage industry chain benefiting significantly [8]. - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow by 30% in 2026, supported by high domestic registration volumes and stable production schedules [8]. - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in the second half of 2026, with recommendations for investments in lithium carbonate and companies like CATL and Putailai [8]. Power Equipment - The power equipment sector is expected to be driven by exports and global economic recovery, with AI development enhancing overseas demand expectations [9]. - Key recommendations include focusing on transformers for export and AI power supply solutions, as domestic companies are likely to capture more global market share [9]. Wind and Solar - The wind power sector is anticipated to experience high demand growth, particularly in offshore and domestic markets. The supply-demand dynamics and product structure are expected to positively impact profitability across different segments [10]. - The solar power sector faces short-term uncertainties but is expected to recover as energy storage installation ratios increase, with a return to reasonable supply-demand levels anticipated by 2027 [10]. New Directions - The humanoid robotics industry is highlighted as a significant future direction, akin to the electric vehicle boom from 2015-2019, with a focus on key suppliers and domestic manufacturers [11]. - Solid-state battery technology is also emphasized, with ongoing developments expected to enhance sustainability and certainty in the sector [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a small net capital injection, and the 6M repurchase in December had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale decreased, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased on average, and the median duration of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds changed. Tax - period disturbances may hinder the decline of overnight funding rates [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 470 million yuan. In December, the 6M repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. From December 15 - 19, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 66.85 billion yuan will mature, 40 billion yuan of 6M repurchases will mature, and 60 billion yuan will be issued. The decrease in net repurchase injection in December may be due to banks' preference for 1 - year policy tools [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.2 and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to December 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.1 and 0.6 basis points respectively. The overnight rate DR001 dropped below 1.30%. However, due to the tax - period payment disturbance after December 15, overnight funding rates may face volatility [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 1.48 billion yuan, 17.18 billion yuan less than December 1 - 7. From December 15 - 21, the expected net payment scale is - 8.394 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield and Curve**: As of December 12, 2025, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.6150%, up 3.6 and 0.0 basis points respectively from December 5. The 1Y yield was 1.6600%, up 0.5 basis points from November 28. The decline in certificate of deposit rates was hindered by weak bond market sentiment and limited impact of marginal changes in funding on pricing [8]. - **Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 12.06 billion yuan. From December 15 - 21, the expected maturity repayment amount is 106.29 billion yuan, with high roll - over pressure [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, up from 107.56% in December 1 - 5 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On December 12, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.44 years week - on - week, reaching the 92.6% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.30 years week - on - week, at the 18.2% quantile [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 2026 年投资展望：星途跨海，价值新章 ——交运周专题 2025W50 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2026 年，我们梳理了航空、海运、物流细分板块的投资机会：1）航空：供需错配箭在弦 上：需求趋势确定向上，实际供给走向下滑，价格弹性逐年释放，盈利拾级而上。2）海运：中 国出海由产品、产业向资本转变，产能释放将重塑全球贸易格局，干散货海运供需拐点将至， 油轮板块景气持续兑现，区域内集运供需结构较优。3）物流：中国优势产业正加速出海，驱动 新兴市场跨境物流景气向好。国内市场竞争秩序重构，从内卷式竞争走向高质量发展，快递物 流格局有望改善，龙头公司估值有望重估；大宗物流价格具备向上弹性，底部布局周期反转。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S04905 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the retail industry [12] Core Insights - Domestic demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while export demand presents several structural opportunities. The focus is on supply-side logic and selecting sub-industries with optimized supply patterns [3][6] - The report highlights the potential of the Belt and Road Initiative and structural demand in North America for export opportunities, alongside the advantages of leading export companies during compliance improvements [6][25] - In the beauty and personal care sector, high-end brands and extreme cost-performance products are identified as stable segments with high entry barriers [6][8] - The physical retail sector is seeing thorough adjustments from leading companies, which, combined with ongoing supply chain reforms, is expected to lead to profit optimization [6][9] - The gold and jewelry sector continues to favor brands with strong product differentiation capabilities, aligning with growing consumer demand [6][10] Summary by Sections Cross-Border Expansion - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the Belt and Road Initiative, with exports to these regions growing by 10.4% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while overall export growth has slowed to 5.3% [25] - Structural opportunities in the U.S. market are noted, with high-end retail showing resilience and discount retail experiencing accelerated growth [34][35] Beauty and Personal Care - The cosmetics industry is experiencing a slight recovery in growth, but competition among mid-tier brands is intensifying. The report recommends focusing on high-end and cost-effective brands [8][19] - The medical aesthetics sector is seeing increased compliance with more approved products, but competition is expected to intensify, necessitating a focus on companies with strong product innovation [8][19] Supermarkets and Department Stores - The demand in the supermarket and department store sector remains stable, with a slowdown in store closures. Leading supermarket companies are maintaining their market positions, particularly quality retail firms [9][18] - Adjustments in supply chain and compensation mechanisms are enhancing operational efficiency and promoting private label products [9][18] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is adapting to high gold prices, with an increase in lightweight products and a stable demand for gifting scenarios. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong design capabilities and expansion potential [10][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Insights - The Ministry of Foreign Trade announced the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, aimed at curbing low-end exports represented by "buy-order exports" [2][6] - The management of export licenses is expected to disrupt the operations of shell trading companies, which have been exploiting tax evasion through fictitious contracts [6][7] - Short-term impacts may include a surge in exports before the new regulations take effect, but long-term benefits are anticipated as the industry adjusts to reduced low-end production and improved cost structures [7] Summary by Sections Export License Management - The announcement on December 12, 2025, includes a list of steel products that will require export licenses, which must be obtained based on export contracts and quality inspection certificates [2][6] - The goal is to strengthen export management and eliminate low-end exports that have been detrimental to the market [6] Market Conditions - Recent data shows a significant decline in iron output, with daily production dropping to 2.29 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 3.10 thousand tons per day [4] - Steel inventory has decreased by 2.56% week-on-week, but is up 14.27% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inventory situation [5] Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a downward trend, with Shanghai rebar prices falling to 3,250 CNY per ton, a decrease of 20 CNY per ton week-on-week [5] - The profit margins for rebar have turned negative, with immediate profits at -56 CNY per ton and lagging profits at -85 CNY per ton [5] Future Outlook - The implementation of export license management is expected to create a short-term export pulse, but may lead to a temporary supply-demand imbalance in early 2026 [7] - Long-term benefits include a reduction in raw material demand and the exit of outdated production capacities, which could improve the overall market conditions for quality steel producers [7][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The sales of sanitation equipment from January to October 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with new energy sanitation equipment sales growing by 66.6%. The penetration rate of new energy sanitation equipment reached 25.9% in October [2][6] - The competitive landscape for leading companies like Yingfeng Environment remains strong, although competition among top players is showing signs of marginal slowdown in the second half of 2025 [7][26] - The penetration rate of electric sanitation equipment in pilot cities reached approximately 27.7% from January to October 2025, indicating rapid progress in electrification [8][32] - The report highlights the growth opportunities for new energy sanitation equipment driven by carbon reduction policies and local government debt management strategies [9][37] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to October 2025, sanitation equipment sales totaled 62,763 units, with a notable recovery in demand after years of decline. The sales in October alone reached 5,098 units, marking an 11.6% increase year-on-year [6][18] - New energy sanitation vehicle sales reached 11,605 units during the same period, with a cumulative penetration rate of approximately 18.5% [20][22] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration (CR10) for sanitation equipment was 55.3% in 2025, down from 58.6% in 2024, indicating increased competition from long-tail brands [7][26] - Yingfeng Environment leads the new energy sanitation equipment market with a 28.9% market share, followed by Yutong and Fulongma at 13.7% and 6.8%, respectively [30][31] Electrification Progress - The report notes that pilot cities for electric sanitation vehicles achieved a penetration rate of 27.7%, significantly higher than the national average of 18.5%. Cities like Zhengzhou and Shenzhen showed particularly high rates of 53.1% and 51.1% [8][32] Policy and Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the growth of the sanitation equipment industry is closely tied to government policies and local fiscal conditions. The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" phase will focus on carbon emission control, which is expected to further drive the adoption of new energy sanitation equipment [9][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The fluctuations in the banking sector's funding at year-end are primarily due to changes in the allocation of trading funds. In early October, bank index funds saw significant inflows, with a record net inflow of 8.2 billion yuan in the week of October 17. However, there has been a continuous net outflow for five weeks, with a recent outflow of 2.6 billion yuan. This reflects changes in market risk appetite as the quarter and year-end approaches, with expectations that after the year-end, allocation forces will push up bank stock valuations and the scale of bank index funds [2][6][37]. - The mid-term dividend transactions are expected to have an impact. The four major state-owned banks have recently completed their mid-term dividend ex-dividend dates, which historically lead to stock price adjustments. The mid-term dividend ex-dividend dates for these banks have been moved up to December this year. It is anticipated that other large banks will also implement mid-term dividend ex-dividend dates towards the end of the year and before the Spring Festival. If these transactions cause stock price adjustments, it typically presents a good opportunity for long-term investors [7][39]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index has fallen by 1.6% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively. This marks the fourth consecutive week of decline for the banking sector, driven by a further recovery in market risk appetite, leading to fluctuations in fund behavior. Active funds that previously sought defensive positions have continued to flow out of the banking sector [20][22]. Dividend and Stock Performance - As of December 12, the average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares has risen to 3.94%, with a spread of 210 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield. The average dividend yield for H-shares is 5.14%, with an average discount rate of 23% compared to A-shares, remaining stable from the previous week [22][26]. Fund Flows - The banking index funds have experienced a significant net outflow recently, with a net outflow of 2.6 billion yuan this week. This trend is expected to continue reflecting changes in market risk preferences as the year-end approaches. The report anticipates that after the year-end, the allocation forces will likely push up bank stock valuations and the scale of bank index funds [6][37]. Economic Policy Context - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the need to expand domestic demand and boost consumption as primary tasks. It also highlighted the importance of addressing risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt, which remain critical concerns for the financial sector [8][43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the airport service industry [8]. Core Insights - The introduction of foreign participants in the new round of duty-free tenders at Shanghai Pudong, Hongqiao, and Beijing Capital airports marks a significant change in the competitive landscape [2][4]. - Dufry, a global leader in travel retail, has entered the bidding process, indicating a shift towards a more diversified and competitive market in China's duty-free sector [4][21]. - The bidding rules now allow only one segment win per bidder, breaking the previous monopoly held by China Duty Free Group [14][21]. - The overall commission rates for duty-free contracts are expected to increase unless there is a substantial growth in sales volumes [2][6]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Tender Competition Intensifies - Major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen a significant drop in international passenger numbers from 2020 to 2022, leading to the expiration of restructured duty-free contracts [4][16]. - The new bidding process allows for foreign companies to participate, which is a departure from the previous exclusive operations by domestic firms [14][21]. Changes in Duty-Free Contract Commission Rates - The new contracts at Shanghai Airport utilize a "fixed rent + additional commission" model, which is a high minimum guarantee combined with lower commission rates [6][40]. - If the sales volume at Shanghai Pudong Airport reaches 15 billion yuan, the comprehensive commission rate could drop to approximately 22%, aligning with previous contract levels [6][40]. Airport Fundamentals and Recovery - The airport sector is undergoing significant fixed asset investments due to historical external shocks, with a stable recovery in passenger volumes expected [7][43]. - Airports like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are projected to have absolute yield value amidst improving mid-term operational data [7][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Since late November, thermal coal prices have significantly declined due to abnormal weather, accelerated production resumption, and concerns over potential electricity price reductions in 2026. Despite the recent rapid price drop, the report anticipates an improvement in coal demand in 2026, with limited supply capacity utilization, suggesting a potential increase in the price baseline [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure due to weak demand, factors such as cold weather and snowfall could stabilize and potentially increase prices in the future [6][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [30]. - As of December 12, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 745 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][58]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report outlines that the recent decline in coal prices is attributed to several factors: warmer weather leading to lower electricity consumption, increased coal supply from resumed production, and concerns regarding electricity price negotiations for 2026 [7]. - The demand outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of stable or slightly positive growth in thermal power generation, despite potential long-term impacts from energy storage technologies [7][8]. - On the supply side, the report notes that while there may be new production capacity in 2026, overall supply growth is expected to remain limited due to ongoing regulatory controls on excessive production [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a balanced risk-reward profile, recommending stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and dividend potential [7][8]. - It also highlights the potential for higher returns from currently undervalued stocks if demand improves and coal prices rise unexpectedly, suggesting companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry as potential targets [7][8].