Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the hydrogen energy sector, indicating potential investment opportunities in hydrogen compression and pipeline supply equipment [9]. Core Insights - The hydrogen storage and transportation technology routes are diverse, but a large-scale, low-cost, and safe delivery system is not yet mature. Pipeline transportation is identified as one of the promising methods for development [4][11]. - By December 2025, the first long-distance pure hydrogen pipeline in China, spanning approximately 1,132 kilometers, is expected to be operational, with an initial hydrogen delivery capacity of 100,000 tons per year, potentially increasing to 500,000 tons per year [7]. - The economic feasibility of pure hydrogen pipelines is highlighted, with transportation costs estimated between 0.8 to 4.66 yuan/kg depending on the distance, making it a viable option for long-distance hydrogen delivery in China [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Hydrogen storage and transportation technologies are varied, with high-pressure gaseous storage being the most mature but limited by low transportation efficiency and high costs over long distances [11]. - Pipeline transportation, including pure hydrogen and hydrogen-blended natural gas pipelines, is viewed as the most economical long-term solution for large-scale hydrogen delivery [11]. Regulatory Developments - Significant progress in standards and policies for hydrogen pipeline transportation is expected by 2025, including the release of national standards for hydrogen pipelines and guidelines for hydrogen blending in natural gas pipelines [11]. - The National Energy Administration has initiated pilot projects for hydrogen pipeline applications, supporting the development of large-scale hydrogen transportation [11]. Project Updates - Key projects include the Sinopec pipeline project, which has passed safety assessments, and the commencement of the first kilometer-level pure hydrogen pipeline in China [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing safety risks associated with hydrogen embrittlement in pipeline materials [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase slightly net - withdrew funds. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds significantly increased compared with the previous week. The maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) showed a sideways trend overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. - Looking forward to early 2026, there are many factors disturbing the capital market. However, the key lies in the central bank's attitude towards liquidity injection. It is expected that the central bank will support the capital market in early 2026, and measures such as "dual cuts" or active liquidity injection through open - market operations are expected in the first quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Capital Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 1000 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases will mature at 6227 billion yuan, with 4701 billion yuan maturing on January 4, 2026. In January 2026, 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases will mature at 11000 billion yuan and 6000 billion yuan respectively, and MLF will mature at 2000 billion yuan [6]. - **Interest Rates**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.26% and 1.35% respectively, down 1.0 basis points and up 0.5 basis points compared with December 15 - 19, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.3 basis points and up 0.6 basis points compared with December 15 - 19, 2025 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 3667 billion yuan, an increase of about 3506 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 21, 2025. The net financing of national bonds was about 3741 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds was about - 74 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 138 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yield**: As of December 26, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.6150% and 1.5950% respectively, up 0.2 basis points and basically unchanged compared with December 19, 2025; the maturity yield of 1Y NCDs was 1.6350%, basically unchanged compared with December 19, 2025 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From December 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 3219 billion yuan. From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 2949 billion yuan. The maturity scale of NCDs in January 2026 is about 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan month - on - month and an increase of 0.93 trillion yuan year - on - year [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 108.18%, compared with 107.92% from December 15 - 19, 2025 [10]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On December 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.80 years, up 0.10 years week - on - week, at the 89.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.74 years, up 0.20 years week - on - week, at the 44.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - Space photovoltaic technology plays an irreplaceable role in large low-orbit satellite constellations, space computing, and space power transmission, making it a core technology for major countries' space strategies. The mainstream technology currently is gallium arsenide multi-junction batteries, with potential for silicon batteries to regain prominence due to cost reductions and efficiency improvements. Perovskite technology is also expected to emerge as a strong contender [2][6][41]. Summary by Sections Why Develop the Space Photovoltaic Industry? - Space has become a new battleground for major powers, with countries actively planning space development and enhancing their capabilities. Space photovoltaic technology is the preferred energy source for spacecraft, providing reliable energy during missions. The demand for photovoltaic batteries is expected to grow rapidly due to the construction of large low-orbit satellite constellations driven by military, communication, political, and commercial needs [5][15][17]. What Technology Routes are Chosen for Space Photovoltaics? - The energy generation part of spacecraft power systems includes photovoltaic, chemical batteries, and nuclear reactors. For long-duration missions, photovoltaic systems are the preferred choice. Current mainstream technology is gallium arsenide multi-junction batteries, which have an in-orbit efficiency exceeding 30%. Silicon batteries may regain prominence due to cost and efficiency improvements, while perovskite technology meets the demands for high efficiency, lightweight, low cost, and flexibility [6][33][35][41]. What is the Market Space for Space Photovoltaics? - The global gallium arsenide battery market is expected to reach approximately 3 billion in 2023, driven by the deployment of large low-orbit constellations. By 2030, the space photovoltaic market corresponding to low-orbit satellites is projected to be around 29.5 billion, approximately ten times the current market size. The space computing sector will further expand market opportunities, with optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios predicting market sizes of 2.38 trillion, 1.33 trillion, and 280 billion, respectively [7][56][59]. Which Companies are Engaging in the Space Photovoltaic Field? - Companies focusing on space perovskite technology are recommended for short-term investment, while those with established ground perovskite technology making inroads into space applications should be monitored for long-term potential. Strategic partnerships, such as that between Junda Co. and Shangyi Optoelectronics, aim to establish leadership in space photovoltaic technology. Companies with HJT technology that have product samples and production capacity in the U.S. are also of interest [8][67][72].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 住房的均衡定价在哪儿？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自住和投资的底层逻辑是一致的，只是利率的选取可能有差别，自住的利率取决于理财和房贷， 投资的利率取决于理财。中长期视角，房价预期涨幅的参照系锚定收入或通胀，并映射在房租 上；复盘过往上行周期，收入或通胀驱动下，利率和折旧被房价预期涨幅所掩盖，与大多数资 产定价类似，增长预期是决定估值的第一要素；但如果收入或通胀承压，房价没有明显的预期 涨幅，利率和折旧就是均衡定价的核心。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 住房的均衡定价在哪儿？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有明显提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report suggests that the coal output in Q1 2026 may not see significant growth due to policy constraints overshadowing seasonal supply patterns. The expected year-on-year increase in raw coal output is likely to be limited [2][7] - The coal price is under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but there is potential for stabilization if demand improves and supply remains tight [6][19] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with both defensive and offensive characteristics, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, as well as those with low valuations and limited shares like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal [7][19] Summary by Sections Recent Tracking - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.65 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [6][18] - As of December 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao power coal was 672 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][19] Q1 Coal Supply Outlook - Historical data shows a 60% probability of year-on-year increases in Q1 coal output over the past decade, but policy factors are now more influential than seasonal trends [7] - The report emphasizes that the "opening red" in coal supply is more a result of policy adjustments rather than seasonal patterns, with significant constraints on production capacity expected in Q1 2026 [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can balance dividends and growth, highlighting Yanzhou Coal Mining Company A+H and China Shenhua Energy A+H as key picks [7] - For aggressive growth, companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal are suggested if demand improves and coal prices exceed expectations [7]

- The report introduces several active quantitative products launched by the Changjiang Quantitative Team since July 2023, including the Dividend Selection Strategy and the Industry High Win Rate Strategy[7][14] - The "Dividend 50 Combination" strategy outperformed the CSI Dividend Total Return Index with a weekly excess return of approximately 0.52%, ranking around the 17th percentile among similar products[8][16][23] - The "Electronic Balanced Allocation Enhanced Combination" strategy achieved a weekly return of about 4.82%, slightly underperforming the overall electronic sector return[8][26][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [13] Core Insights - The brokerage investment banking business has experienced a contraction from 2022 to 2024, but is expected to see a recovery starting in 2025, with significant improvements in both business volume and revenue [2][7] - The recovery is influenced by the resurgence of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), which is anticipated to enhance the profitability of brokerage firms through underwriting and follow-on investments [2][10] - Leading brokerage firms such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and CICC are expected to leverage their resource and scale advantages to maintain competitive edges in the market [2][10] Summary by Sections Investment Banking Business Recovery - The brokerage investment banking sector is projected to recover in 2025 after three years of contraction, with a notable increase in business volume and revenue [7][21] - A-share IPO and refinancing volumes for 2025 are expected to reach CNY 1,253 billion and CNY 9,347 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 86.1% and 318.9% [21][28] Market Concentration - The concentration of A-share IPOs has significantly increased, with the top five firms (CR5) accounting for 71.5% of the total IPO volume in 2025, up 15.9 percentage points from 2024 [28] - The concentration in bond underwriting has also risen, with CR5 at 52.3% [28] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Follow-On Investment - The follow-on investment returns from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have improved significantly, with total follow-on investment amounting to CNY 11.2 billion in 2025 and first-day returns reaching 261% [9][30] - Major firms like CITIC, Huatai, and Guotai Junan have reported substantial first-day follow-on investment returns, contributing significantly to their annual profit growth [9][30] 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a robust project pipeline for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2026, with a total planned issuance of CNY 675 billion from 40 companies [36] - Under optimistic scenarios, follow-on investment returns could drive profit growth for leading brokerage firms by up to 10% in 2026 [10][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Google has released Gemini 3 Flash, which combines high performance with low cost. The model shows a threefold speed improvement compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro, with response times under one second. It also reduces token usage by approximately 30%, making it significantly cheaper than its predecessor [10][10] - The FORCE conference saw the launch of Doubao Model 1.8, optimized for multimodal agent scenarios, enhancing its ability to handle complex tasks. Its video understanding capability has doubled, and it supports intelligent context management, leading to a tenfold increase in daily usage compared to the previous year [10][10] - The report suggests focusing on specific AI segments, including high-quality IP benefiting from AI advancements, major internet companies with traffic and data advantages, verticals like advertising and education that have proven business models abroad, and AI-integrated gaming companies [10][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - Google launched Gemini 3 Flash, which offers high performance and low cost. Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 pro were also released at the FORCE conference [5][5] Event Commentary - Gemini 3 Flash's core advantages include high-speed responses, superior performance in benchmark tests, and significant cost efficiency. Doubao Model 1.8 enhances visual understanding and supports complex task management, leading to substantial growth in usage metrics [10][10]

Core Insights - The foundation for the valuation recovery of bank stocks is the establishment of a solid risk bottom line, with bank stocks currently in the process of confirming this bottom line [4][19] - Stable allocation value is leading the valuation recovery, with financial supply-side reforms accelerating in the long term, resulting in increased concentration of market share among state-owned banks and leading city commercial banks [4][7] - The focus for 2026 is on the stabilization of net interest margins and retail risk pressures, with expectations for improved liability costs driving net interest margins to stabilize [8][21] Group 1: Risk Bottom Line and Valuation Recovery - The valuation cycle of bank stocks fluctuates around the operating cycle, characterized by a pressured macro environment and significantly narrowed bank interest margins since 2023 [7][19] - The market anticipates a stabilization of interest margins and overall asset quality by 2026, although retail and real estate sectors remain under pressure [7][19] - The ongoing process of establishing a risk bottom line is crucial for the recovery of bank stock valuations, with state-owned banks expected to play a leading role in the consolidation of financial institutions [7][30] Group 2: Fundamental Focus on Interest Margin Stabilization and Retail Risk - Total loan growth is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1 trillion yuan, primarily due to continued pressure from retail loans [8][40] - The net interest margin is projected to stabilize, with a potential decrease in deposit costs by 20 to 30 basis points as excess savings from three-year fixed deposits mature [8][21] - Asset quality concerns are particularly focused on mortgage and collateralized loans, with the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of current mortgage loans remaining at controllable levels [8][21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Bank stocks are still significantly undervalued from a PB-ROE perspective, especially among quality city commercial banks [9][29] - Despite short-term fluctuations in funding, the allocation value of bank stocks remains intact, with insurance capital continuing to increase its holdings in response to asset scarcity [9][21] - Recommended stocks include Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, with a focus on quality city commercial banks and dividend-yielding assets like China Merchants Bank and Bank of Communications [11][9]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell to -13.1% year-on-year, marking the weakest level since September 2024[5] - Revenue growth for the same month showed a slight improvement, decreasing by only -0.3% year-on-year[5] - The decline in profit growth is primarily attributed to a significant drop in profit margins, despite a recovery in volume growth[6] Group 2: Export and Industry Performance - While profits in export-related industries showed improvement, they did not offset the overall decline in profits across sectors[6] - The mining industry experienced a profit decline of -21.2%, while the manufacturing sector's profit growth rate fell to -13.5%[6] - The recovery in exports, particularly in electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, contributed to a 5.9% year-on-year increase in exports, boosting overall profits by 4.98 percentage points[6] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - By the end of November, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory rose to 4.6%, indicating a passive accumulation of inventory due to weak demand[6] - The turnover days for finished goods increased to 20.5 days, reflecting worsening operational pressures on enterprises[6] - The overall business pressure is expected to continue accumulating, with potential implications for the employment market[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a significant possibility that policy measures will be implemented in early 2026 to stimulate growth and stabilize profits amid weakening external demand[6] - The upcoming national development and reform meeting emphasizes the need for proactive policy measures to ensure a strong start in 2026[6]