%% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 行业研究丨深度报告丨媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] 字节 AI 深度：矢志登万仞，厚积起风云 %% %% [Table_Summary] 字节以饱和式打法积极布局 AI，拥有极强的战略定力。从组织架构看，我们认为字节的优势在于 组织独立性强、人才密度高、激励力度大；从资本开支看，预计字节未来投入依然强劲。模型层， 字节先进的模型+普惠的定价，带动大模型调用量国内领先，海量数据反哺模型进化，从而实现技 术+商业双飞轮转动。应用层，字节正在打造 AI 时代的"APP 爆款工厂"，核心优势为：1）依托 抖音、今日头条等超级 APP，实现高效引流和低成本获客，春晚有望带来超级流量窗口；2）形成 从模型到工具、从创作到分发、从流量到变现的闭环；3）豆包接入抖音商城，商业化有望再加速。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 朱子愉 SAC：S0490516080001 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading integrated chemical enterprise with diversified operations, resembling a smaller version of a chemical ETF. The report anticipates an upward trend in the chemical industry, suggesting that the company has significant potential for improvement in product pricing and demand [6][14]. - The company's main business segments include polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, with a strong competitive advantage in each area [6][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections Main Business - The company operates in three primary segments: polyurethane, petrochemicals, and fine chemicals/new materials. It has established a strong competitive edge in each sector, particularly in MDI and TDI production, with total capacities of 3.8 million tons/year and 1.44 million tons/year, respectively [6][22][37]. Product Prosperity - The chemical industry is currently at a low point but is expected to gradually improve. The company's products show significant potential for upward elasticity, with many price differentials at historical lows. The IMF has raised its global GDP growth forecast, which is likely to boost chemical consumption [7][48]. - Specific product insights include: - Polyurethane: MDI and TDI prices are at historical low percentiles of 26.6% and 37.6%, respectively, indicating potential for recovery [53]. - Petrochemicals: Price differentials for key products like propylene and ethylene are at 19.3% and 3.0%, respectively, suggesting a potential for price recovery [56]. - Fine Chemicals and New Materials: Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have risen significantly, indicating strong demand and potential for sustained high profitability [53][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's ability to capitalize on the expected recovery in the chemical industry, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the anticipated upward elasticity of its product lines [8][11].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing (社融) increased by 7.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2 trillion RMB[7] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year[7] - Government bonds and undiscounted bills were the main supports for the increase in social financing[7] Group 2: Loan Trends - Both medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease, while short-term loans increased for both sectors[7] - New loans in January amounted to 4.7 trillion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 trillion RMB year-on-year[7] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 both showed a year-on-year increase, with M1 at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%[7] - Non-bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a trend towards liquidity in deposits[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year-on-year growth of social financing may face downward pressure as the base increases towards July, but is expected to remain above 7%[7] - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 expected to stay above 7%[7] Group 5: Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially affecting credit growth and social financing[9] - Uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could impact China's monetary policy[9]

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀回落，降息无忧 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 ——美国 1 月 CPI 数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀回落，降息无忧 2] [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月，美国通胀低于预期。具体来看：1）食品价格增速放缓，能源价格显著回落；2） 二手车价格大幅回落，核心商品通胀压力可控；3）机票上涨带动通胀反弹，但住房通胀回落， 核心服务通胀压力有限。往前看，我们仍维持此前对年内降息节奏的判断：1）短期，鲍威尔剩 余任期内降息暂缓已是基线预期，就业超预期对此并无影响；2）5 月沃什就任后，考虑到其"降 息+缩表、缩职能"的基本政策主张，加之届时关税对通胀的影响大概率基本显现，降息阻碍不 大，再度开启降息的可能性较大，年内预计累计降息至少 50B ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company has recently established significant partnerships in North America, including a joint venture with Harmonic Drive for robotic joint modules and collaborations with Aisin and Toyota for aluminum body components [2][4]. - As a leading player in the global exterior parts market, the company has successfully expanded into the battery box business, becoming a top player in this segment, which is expected to grow further with the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe [2]. - The company is strategically diversifying into robotics, liquid cooling, and low-altitude sectors, with ongoing progress in these areas, which is anticipated to create a multi-dimensional growth trajectory [2]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The company has formed a joint venture with Harmonic Drive to enter the North American market for humanoid robot joint modules, with an initial capital investment of HKD 78 million [7]. - A joint venture with Aisin and Toyota has been established to produce aluminum body components, enhancing the supply chain for these parts in North America [7]. Business Growth - The company's battery box business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the acceleration of new energy initiatives in Europe, which is expected to boost both revenue and profitability [7]. - The company is entering a capital expenditure reduction phase, leading to improved cash flow and potential increases in dividend rates, with a forecasted net profit of HKD 27.7 billion, 32.6 billion, and 41.5 billion for 2025-2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [12] Core Insights - The Chinese government reiterated its "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing the implementation of dual control over carbon emissions and intensity, which will impact the electricity sector significantly [2][6] - The electricity industry, being the first sector included in the carbon market, has undergone multiple compliance cycles, with a projected 1% decrease in baseline allocation values for carbon emissions in 2023 [6][18] - The tightening of carbon emission controls is expected to affect both thermal and green electricity differently, with potential implications for investment strategies [6][18] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control - The baseline allocation for carbon emissions in the electricity sector is set to decrease by 1% in 2023, considering the progress of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][18] - The pressure on thermal power generation to reduce emissions has been evident, with a notable increase in carbon emissions intensity in 2024 due to increased reliance on thermal power for peak load management [7][19] Green Electricity Market - The establishment of a green electricity trading system since 2021 has faced challenges due to insufficient demand, but upcoming regulations are expected to significantly increase the demand for green certificates [9][31] - By 2025, the consumption ratio of green electricity in key energy-intensive industries is projected to create a demand for approximately 46.38 million non-hydropower green certificates [31][34] Investment Recommendations - The implementation of dual carbon controls is anticipated to enhance the economic viability of green attributes, benefiting operators of wind and solar power who can obtain green certificates [10] - The report highlights specific companies such as Longyuan Power, Xinte Energy, and Fujian Energy as favorable investment opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and focus on renewable energy [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank. The central bank's influence on the short - end funding has increased, bringing stability to the funding and alleviating the funding stratification. In the absence of interest rate cuts, the overnight funding rate corridor is expected to be between 1.2% - 1.4%. The short - end prices will be more stable, and the non - bank funding price stratification will also be fully alleviated. The performance of short - term bonds within 10 years is more related to the central bank's interest rate cuts and funding control [1][9][16]. - The long - end of the bond market depends on fiscal policy. The supply of ultra - long government bonds is an important factor affecting the long - end term spread. It is expected that the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year may still put upward pressure on the ultra - long - end bond yields. The 30 - year treasury bond yield is expected to break through the 2.2% key point, but after the breakthrough, attention should be paid to the post - festival fiscal supply. The 30 - year bond is more suitable as a flexible variety for right - side trading [1][9][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short - end Depends on the Central Bank - **Increased Influence and Stability**: The central bank's influence on the short - end funding has significantly increased, bringing stability to the funding and basically solving the funding stratification problem, providing a stable space for carry strategies. Without interest rate cuts, the subsequent overnight funding rate corridor is expected to be between 1.2% - 1.4%. As the domestic interest rate transmission mechanism improves, short - end funding prices will be more stable, and the interest rate corridor, especially the upper limit, will narrow [1][9][16]. - **Alleviation of Non - bank Funding Stratification**: In Q1 2025, the spread between DR001 and R001 widened rapidly, but since then, the funding stratification has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the monthly spread between DR and R is stable within 10BP, providing a stable coupon strategy for non - banks. The performance of short - term bonds within 10 years is more related to the central bank's interest rate cuts and funding control [9][17]. - **Overseas Experience**: The Federal Reserve effectively controls the short - end bond market interest rates. The one - year US Treasury bond yield moves almost in line with the federal benchmark interest rate [9][30]. Long - end Depends on Fiscal Policy - **Influence of Ultra - long Government Bond Supply**: Ultra - long government bond supply is an important factor affecting the long - end term spread of the bond market, and the 30Y - 1Y spread is more sensitive to this factor than the 10Y - 1Y spread. Empirical results show that the net financing of ultra - long bonds and CPI year - on - year have a positive driving effect on the term spread, and the 30 - year treasury bond is more sensitive to the supply shock of ultra - long bonds [34]. - **Overseas Experience**: In the long run, the long - end US Treasury bond yields are affected by fiscal factors. However, during special periods such as QE or QT, they are disturbed by the Federal Reserve's policies. The scale of government debt on the fiscal side, especially the outstanding balance of long - term Treasury bonds, has a significant impact on the long - bond term spread [36]. - **Domestic Situation in 2026**: Since 2026, the issuance duration of local bonds has continued to lengthen. As of February 10, 2026, the weighted issuance duration of local bonds was 13 years, an increase of 0.6 years compared to last year. The new local bond issuance scale in January 2026 was 4285 billion yuan, slightly higher than 3053 billion yuan in the same period last year. It is expected that the overall fiscal rhythm this year will be the same as last year, with the supply peak mainly in the second and third quarters. The supply of ultra - long government bonds this year may still be a risk factor for the bond market. The 30 - year treasury bond yield is expected to break through 2.2%, but after the breakthrough, attention should be paid to the post - festival fiscal supply, and it is more suitable for right - side trading [9][39][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new tobacco industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - British American Tobacco achieved total revenue of £25.61 billion in FY2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% (an increase of 2.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates). Revenue from new tobacco products reached £3.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% (7.0% at constant exchange rates), accounting for 14.1% of total revenue, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. In H2 2025, revenue from new tobacco products was £1.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with a revenue share of 14.5% [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Traditional Tobacco Trends - The decline in traditional tobacco is evident, with a forecasted global cigarette volume decline of approximately 2% in 2026. New tobacco products are expected to be the core growth engine, with projected low double-digit growth in revenue for 2026 [6] Product Categories - **Heated Not Burned (HNB)**: Revenue for HNB products decreased by 0.7% year-on-year (an increase of 1.0% at constant exchange rates). The decline in cigarette sales was 3.7% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified market competition and resource allocation issues related to the early launch of Glo Hilo. Glo's global market share decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 14.9% [6] - **Oral Tobacco**: The modern oral tobacco segment saw a revenue increase of 47.4% year-on-year (48.0% at constant exchange rates). The market share for all oral products and new oral tobacco increased by 5.8 and 7.5 percentage points to 17.1% and 33.4%, respectively [6] - **Vaping Products**: Revenue from vaping products decreased by 10.4% year-on-year (8.6% at constant exchange rates). The decline in sales was 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to illegal products in the U.S. and Canada, as well as regulatory changes in some European countries. Vuse maintained its global leadership with a market share increase of 0.6 percentage points to 38.8% [6] Investment Perspective - With the acceleration of the global new tobacco process, companies with core barriers or resource positioning in the industry present investment opportunities. Key focuses include four major international tobacco companies and two product categories (HNB and oral tobacco). Specific investment targets include Smoore International for HNB and vaping, and China National Tobacco for long-term positioning [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the hydrogen energy industry, emphasizing investment opportunities as the sector moves towards commercialization and scale [4]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has prioritized hydrogen energy as the fourth key area for breakthrough advancements, highlighting its importance in national strategy [4][7]. - In January 2026, a series of policies were introduced to support the hydrogen energy sector, including the establishment of standardization committees and incentives for local governments to reduce lifecycle costs [4][9]. - The report anticipates that the hydrogen energy industry will evolve towards large-scale and commercial applications during the 14th Five-Year Plan, making it a focal point for investment [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The MIIT's meeting on February 3, 2026, emphasized the need for technological advancements in hydrogen energy alongside other emerging technologies [7]. - Key policies include the establishment of four standardization committees to address gaps in the hydrogen energy supply chain and the recognition of hydrogen as a crucial clean fuel in industrial decarbonization [9][10]. Market Dynamics - Local policies are increasingly tailored to specific applications, such as subsidies for hydrogen fuel trucks and infrastructure development, which aim to lower operational costs [9]. - The report notes that the electricity market is evolving, with new mechanisms being explored to connect green electricity directly to hydrogen production, enhancing its economic competitiveness [9]. Investment Opportunities - The hydrogen energy supply and demand are steadily increasing, with expanding applications across various sectors [9]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including companies focused on pure hydrogen production and those with stable core businesses that view hydrogen as a growth opportunity [9]. Potential investment targets include companies like Ice Wheel Environment, Yihua Tong, and Longjing Environmental Protection [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology for a consideration of 448.8 million yuan, valuing Huayan Technology at 880 million yuan. The performance commitment for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 is a net profit of no less than 75 million, 100 million, and 155 million yuan respectively, with an average of 110 million yuan over three years, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8 times. If the cumulative profit falls below 80% of the committed total, the seller must compensate the company. Conversely, if the actual average net profit reaches 120% of the commitment, the valuation may increase to a maximum of 1.32 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 10 times, requiring the company to compensate the seller [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Overview - The acquisition involves a related party transaction with the counterparty being Guandian Investment, fully owned by the company's actual controllers. The acquisition price is set at 448.8 million yuan, with the overall valuation of Huayan Technology at 880 million yuan [4][10]. Company Profile - Huayan Technology specializes in precision components, focusing on stainless steel, titanium alloys, magnetic materials, and high-performance thermal materials. Its products are used in foldable phones, smartwatches, and smart glasses, with major clients including Google, Samsung, META, Amazon, Microsoft, and Sony. The projected revenue for Huayan Technology in 2024 is 620 million yuan, with a net profit of 70 million yuan and a net profit margin of 11.5% [10]. Impact Analysis - The company is expanding its presence in the smart eyewear sector, with recent investments in related technologies. The acquisition is expected to enhance its capabilities in supplying components for smart glasses, particularly as META plans to increase production of AI glasses significantly by 2026. The global market for AI smart glasses is projected to grow substantially, with sales expected to reach 7 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of nearly 360% [10]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has distributed a total of 3.79 billion yuan in cash dividends and has repurchased 870 million yuan worth of shares since its listing. The combined dividends and repurchases for the first half of 2025 amounted to 539 million yuan, representing 97% of the net profit. The expected dividend yield for 2026 is over 6% [10]. Investment Recommendation - The company is characterized as a high-quality dividend stock with stable growth prospects. The expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.7 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 times. The recommendation is to "Buy" based on the anticipated growth and dividend yield [10].