丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 三季报上市钢企的盈利处于什么水平？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q3，上市钢企平均吨净利 92 元/吨，环比+14 元/吨，处于 2021 年来的 68%分位数。尽 管盈利高分位数下，表明三季度行业盈利比本轮下行周期中绝大部分时期都要高，印证反内卷 预期+焦煤宽松趋势下，钢铁盈利从底部修复的弹性。不过，相较于 2021Q2~Q3 行业平均近 400~500 元/吨的吨净利润，盈利向上修复的空间依然广阔。而展望 2026 年，在反内卷落地+ 铁矿宽松趋势下，钢铁行业的盈利或具有更强的修复动能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 三季报上市钢企 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 697 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million yuan, up 26.10% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 62 million yuan, an increase of 14.57% year-on-year. This marks the first positive growth in performance in seven quarters [4][10]. - The company is strengthening its advantages in traditional sectors while accelerating its layout in precision fields, seizing opportunities in embodied intelligence and AI. The improvement in profitability has been continuous since the beginning of the year [10][11]. - The company has established a preliminary platform in general, specialized, and precision fields, solidifying its long-term growth in the reducer sector [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 185 million yuan, down 11.13% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 155 million yuan, down 12.06% year-on-year [4][10]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue was 697 million yuan, with a net profit of 79 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 62 million yuan [4][10]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has seen a recovery in orders, with significant growth in sales of modular reducers, high-power reducers, and Jeno reducers benefiting from the lithium battery sector. Although sales of traditional industrial cycloidal pinwheel reducers have declined, their gross margin and average price remain stable [10]. - The product matrix continues to expand, with new products expected to contribute positively. The company has developed customized products and specialized reducers for various applications, including high-end vertical lathes and large rotary drive systems [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its layout in the precision field and is actively engaging with partners in the robotics and automation sectors. It has established a joint venture to explore opportunities in robotic joint modules [10]. - The company completed its first AI vertical application test in the first half of 2025, aiming to integrate proprietary data to build a private model [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 282 million, 335 million, and 395 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 37x, 32x, and 27x respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 350 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was approximately 320 million yuan, up 9% year-on-year [2][4]. - In the third quarter, the company reported a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 33% to 130 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of approximately 120 million yuan, up 27% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company has faced pressure on revenue due to weak demand in the building materials sector, with a 15% year-on-year decline in real estate completion area in the first three quarters of 2025. Despite this, the revenue decline has shown signs of narrowing, with the company focusing on channel development and opening 133 new stores while upgrading 168 existing ones [10]. - The retail channel revenue for tiles grew by 6% year-on-year, and high-value product revenue increased by 20% [10]. Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters was approximately 31.1%, remaining stable year-on-year. The third quarter gross margin was about 32.6%, with a slight decrease of 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company has managed to reduce manufacturing costs through digitalization and AI technology, which helped mitigate the impact of price declines [10]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was approximately 7.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the third quarter net profit margin was about 8.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 650 million yuan, significantly better than the same period last year. The company has maintained a strong cash collection ratio, with accounts receivable decreasing to 910 million yuan [10]. - The company is one of the first in the consumer building materials industry to recover from bad debt impacts, with credit impairment losses in the third quarter being less than 10 million yuan [10]. Industry Context - The tile industry is experiencing significant supply-side adjustments, with a projected national production of 5.91 billion square meters of building ceramics in 2024, a cumulative decline of 28% from 2021. The number of production lines is expected to decrease from 2,485 in 2022 to 2,193 in 2024, indicating a notable exit rate of 11.75% [10]. - The company has outperformed its competitors in revenue performance during the industry downturn, with projections for net profits of 470 million yuan and 580 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to valuations of 17 and 14 times [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.661 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.605 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 7.59% to 1.404 billion yuan [2][6] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 6.343 billion yuan, a decline of 9.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 507 million yuan, down 7.55% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deductions was 444 million yuan, a decrease of 4.68% [2][6] - The decline in oil prices, along with delivery schedules and typhoon impacts, has put pressure on work volume. However, new overseas contracts have significantly increased, ensuring sufficient orders for future workloads. The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is substantial, and the company is expected to benefit from CNOOC's efforts to increase reserves and production [2][6] - The company completed the construction of 6 jackets and 6 modules on land in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 25% and 64.71%, respectively. Offshore, it completed 4 jackets and 6 modules, down 42.86% and 57.14% year-on-year. The total length of subsea pipeline laid was 76 kilometers, a decrease of 44.93% [13] - The company has signed new overseas contracts worth approximately 40 billion USD in the Middle East, with total orders on hand amounting to about 59.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.01% [2][6] - The government work report for 2025 highlights the development of deep-sea technology, indicating new opportunities for the company in deep-sea resource development and equipment manufacturing [2][6] Financial Summary - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.54 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.12X, 9.20X, and 8.44X based on the closing price on October 30, 2025 [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December interest rate cut expectations have weakened, leading to fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices. The overall industrial metal prices have shown volatility, with domestic prices falling except for aluminum, while external prices have risen for all but copper and nickel. This is attributed to the realization of benefits from the October interest rate cut and US-China talks, alongside hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve that have dampened December rate cut expectations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are stabilizing as the interest rate cut approaches, with recession trading remaining the core driver for gold price recovery. The report emphasizes that the current environment suggests gold prices are more likely to fluctuate rather than indicate a trend reversal. The focus is on the potential impact of domestic gold trading tax policies, which may increase the cost of physical gold holdings while stabilizing reserves [3][4]. Industrial Metals - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. It notes that while short-term interest rate cut expectations have decreased, the medium to long-term economic stabilization outlook remains unchanged. The report highlights that supply adjustments in copper and aluminum since late September warrant attention, particularly the potential for overseas copper companies to reduce supply at year-end [5][6]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is identified as entering a pivotal year, with demand for lithium expected to grow significantly by 2026 due to stable domestic power demand and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the long-term demand for rare earth materials is expected to recover due to traditional demand bottoming out and the acceleration of applications in humanoid robotics [6][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.64% increase compared to a 0.11% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index. The energy metals sector has shown particularly strong performance, with a 4.99% increase [15][19].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 英伟达推出 NVQLink，量子计算商用有望进一 步加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月 28 日，NVIDIA 宣布推出 NVIDIA NVQLink™，这是一种开放式系统架构，可将 GPU 计 算的极致性能与量子处理器紧密结合，以构建加速的量子超级计算机。NVQLink 的发布定义了 实现容错量子计算所需的经典算力角色，标志着量子计算正逐步从"实验室物理演示"向"高 性能计算系统工程"迈进，为后续量子计算的实际应用落地奠定了重要基础，进而带动包括基 础光电元器件、量子通信核心元器件、量子通信传输干线、量子系统平台、以及应用层的量子 科技全产业链发展。建议关注量子科技全产业链，重点关注量子计算及量子通信龙头企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [15] Core Insights - The transportation industry shows signs of recovery with various segments experiencing different levels of performance, driven by factors such as fuel cost reduction, normalization of travel demand, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][41] Summary by Sections Aviation - In Q3 2025, listed airlines saw significant improvement in fuel costs, leading to a notable divergence in profitability among carriers. The international growth rate outpaced domestic, with a 19% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 22% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to the same period in 2019 [6][23] - The average fuel price decreased by 11% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for airlines like China Eastern and Southern, while others faced challenges due to maintenance issues [31][37] Airports - Listed airport companies benefited from the normalization of travel, with gradual increases in passenger flow and stable costs leading to improved profitability. For instance, Shanghai Airport reported a 52.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][45][47] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw improvements in franchise profitability, while direct operations faced pressure due to increased strategic investments aimed at solidifying core business foundations. The overall market trend indicated a "weak volume, stable price" scenario [8][49] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics continued to face external pressures, with significant declines in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors. However, cargo airlines maintained relatively stable profits due to fleet expansions [9][10] Bulk Supply Chain - Despite weak domestic demand, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies since July has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability for leading supply chain companies [10] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector showed signs of recovery, with oil and bulk shipping profitability improving. Container shipping, while still under pressure, showed better-than-expected performance due to seasonal demand and easing trade tensions [11][12] Ports - Port operations benefited from increased imports of bulk commodities, leading to year-on-year growth in performance, particularly in dry bulk and container segments [12][45] Highways - The highway sector experienced a recovery in traffic volume in Q3 2025, resulting in positive year-on-year profit growth for major listed companies [13] Railways - Railway passenger and freight demand showed slight growth, with companies diversifying into non-coal freight and logistics services to enhance profitability [14]

中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 风高浪急之下的久久为功 ——"十五五"规划建议的学习心得 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] "十五五"建议稿整体承袭了"十四五"期间的政策框架，再次展现了国家坚持通过中长期规 划来指导经济社会发展，以绵绵用力、久久为功的姿态持续推动社会主义现代化的完成。而当 前，百年未有之大变局加速演进，新的形势也对下一个阶段的发展目标和方式提出了新的要求。 在这样的背景下，本次"十五五"规划拿出的是更加自信和坚定的姿态，我们相信，随着"十 五五"各项规划逐步落地，中国经济新的动能必将加速释放，中国资产重估的空间将更加广阔。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 风高浪急之下的久久为功 2] ——"十五五"规划建议的学习心得 [Table_Summary2] "十五五"规划，是在二〇三五年远景目标的框架下展开的 改革开放以来，关于长期内如何实现社会主义现代化，党中央在历史发展的不同阶段曾给出过 "三步走"战略、"新三步走"战略、"两步 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 7.052 billion yuan, down 27.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.098 billion yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year. However, there are signs of recovery as inventory and contract liabilities have increased for three consecutive quarters, with a significant year-on-year growth of 41% in Q3 [2][5]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.66 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39.6x, 32.7x, and 27.2x, indicating potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.052 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.098 billion yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 2.338 billion yuan, down 22.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 385 million yuan, down 35.7% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross margin improved in Q3 to 37.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.52 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [12]. Business Segments - The revenue decline is attributed to pressures in the software development sector, while the IDC (Internet Data Center) business has shown stable growth. The company’s contract liabilities increased to 3.355 billion yuan, up 6.94 million yuan year-on-year, and inventory rose to 4.601 billion yuan, up 16.33 million yuan year-on-year, suggesting a positive trend in order recovery [12]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on accelerating IDC construction and advancing AI and robotics strategies. As of Q3, the ongoing projects amounted to 1.940 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to expanding its IDC capabilities [12]. - The investment recommendation emphasizes the importance of monitoring recovery signals, as the company is gradually returning to a growth trajectory with improving order conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The report identifies four key development focuses and investment opportunities for the transportation industry over the next five years, summarized as "Two Internals and Two Promotions": combating internal competition, driving domestic demand, promoting overseas expansion, and facilitating transformation [2][6][17] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The ongoing effort to combat internal competition in the express delivery sector is expected to remain effective, positively impacting the entire e-commerce express delivery segment. Key recommendations include YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [2][6][17] Aviation - The implementation of paid staggered vacations is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the aviation industry, aiding in reversing the current profitability downturn. Recommendations include A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines [2][6][17] Overseas Expansion - The development of new growth poles through overseas expansion and the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor is highlighted. This opens up profit margins for overseas enterprises, with continued recommendations for Jitu Express, Jiayou International, and Eastern Airlines Logistics [2][6][17] Green Transition - The report emphasizes the acceleration of green low-carbon transformation, marking the year as a significant one for green fuel investments. The focus is on promoting a green production and lifestyle, particularly in the transportation sector [2][6][17] Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger traffic has shown a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic has risen by 20%. The domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors have increased by 5.6 percentage points [7][40] Maritime Transport - The average VLCC-TCE rate has surged by 44.1% to $114,000 per day, driven by increased demand from the Middle East. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping has risen by 10.5% to 1,551 points, indicating a favorable market environment [8][61][62] Logistics - The volume of express deliveries has increased by 9.9% year-on-year, with a stable demand for coal transportation. The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the express delivery sector, recommending investments in YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and Zhongtong Express [9][17]