丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 英伟达 FY26Q3 业绩超预期，数据中心业务高速增长；GB300 加速放量，Rubin 平台预计在 2026H2 加速推广。谷歌 Gemini 3 展现强劲多模态能力，支持原生生成式 UI，全面接入搜索 场景；模型采用自研 TPU 训练，有望提升成本效率。全球算力需求加速释放，产业景气再得 验证，持续看好海外 AI 算力供应链。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 操俊茹 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 风险提示 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-11-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数大幅高于预期，但失业率连续 三个月上升，时薪数据指向核心服务通胀压力尚且可控。总的来看，数据确认劳动力市场持续 走弱，但并未出现超预期恶化，就业端仍不足以构成美联储必须降息的理由。往前看，1）年内， 考虑到目前就业并未加速恶化，12 月暂停降息仍是大概率情形；2）2026 年，关税推升通胀但 幅度大概率有限，待关税影响逐渐明朗，美联储的重心仍会回到就业下行风险之上，届时经济 仍需宽货币呵护，美联储或再度降息 2-3 次至中性利率水平以应对经济下行风险。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 [Table_Title 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 2] ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - As of the end of October, the company's PE ratio stands at 34.77x, which is in the 39th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of value for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of 30.4 billion, 33.4 billion, and 35.8 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 17.6 billion, 18.8 billion, and 20.5 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 30.4, 28.4, and 26.1 times respectively [2][52]. Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a continued upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 29.1% and 32.2% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in October was 274.9 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% [8][11][16]. - The overall market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks reached 48.14 trillion HKD by the end of October, with a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [9][11]. Business Segments - In the cash market, the average daily trading volume for northbound trading was 300.8 billion HKD, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.5%. Southbound trading reached 144.4 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% [8][16]. - In the derivatives market, the average daily volume for futures was 694,000 contracts, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [20]. - The LME daily trading volume increased to 792,000 contracts in October, with a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [26]. IPO Market - The IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market maintained high growth, with 80 new companies listed from January to October 2025, raising a total of 2,162 billion HKD, which is a year-on-year increase of 208%. In October alone, 12 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 285 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97% [31][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically sorts out mainstream fund duration measurement methods, focusing on the supplementary bond method and the net - value regression method. The supplementary bond method can optimize the heavy - position weighted method, but it is difficult to capture the dynamic changes of fund positions and duration. The net - value regression method has advantages in fitting stability and dynamic tracking ability. The measurement results show that since 2025, the duration of bond funds has fluctuated, with the central position remaining at a relatively high level. The duration management ability is an important factor affecting the differentiation of fund performance [5][82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fund Duration: Significance and Measurement Methods - **Significance of Fund Duration**: Fund duration is an important indicator to measure interest - rate risk and investment style. A longer duration means greater price sensitivity to interest - rate fluctuations. Adjusting the duration reflects investors' risk preferences and operational ideas, and the duration level represents managers' judgments on interest - rate trends [22]. - **Mainstream Measurement Methods and Their Advantages and Disadvantages**: Common measurement methods include the interest - rate sensitivity method, the recursive method, the heavy - position weighted method, the supplementary bond method, and the net - value regression method. Low - frequency methods are simple to calculate and relatively accurate, while high - frequency methods are continuous and suitable for dynamic tracking. In practice, a trade - off is needed between frequency and accuracy, and multiple methods should be used for cross - verification [23][25]. 3.2 Supplementary Bond Method: Constructing a Simulated Portfolio to Optimize the Heavy - Position Weighted Method - **Basic Principle**: The supplementary bond method optimizes the heavy - position weighted method by filling in specific bonds based on the scale information of various bond holdings in the fund's investment portfolio, constructing a new simulated portfolio with the same duration as the fund's real duration [35]. - **Effectiveness and Limitations**: The supplementary bond method can effectively improve the accuracy of the simulated portfolio's duration at the time of the semi - annual disclosure of the fund's real duration. However, during the period without disclosure of heavy - position holdings and real duration, it cannot reflect the dynamic adjustment of the duration center caused by market changes, and its applicability in high - frequency real - time tracking scenarios is limited [39]. 3.3 Net - Value Regression Method: High - Frequency Dynamic Duration Tracking - **Basic Model**: The net - value regression method takes the daily fund return as the explained variable and the index return as the explanatory variable. The regression coefficient reflects the fund's sensitivity and allocation preference for various bond indexes, and the fund's duration is the weighted result of its holdings on different - term bond indexes [44]. - **Problems and Solutions**: The explanatory variables of the model have a multi - collinearity problem. The PLS method is finally adopted to compress multi - dimensional and highly correlated independent variables, avoid problems caused by multi - collinearity, and improve the model's prediction performance [49][53]. - **Duration Results Measured by the Net - Value Regression Method**: The overall fitting effect of the measured duration is good, with about 41% of the samples having a measurement error within 0.5 years. Since 2025, the duration of the entire market's bond funds has been oscillating, and the central position of the duration reached its highest point in July and August, then declined rapidly, and rebounded at the end of September [58]. - **Using the Net - Value Regression Method to Guide Investment**: Two indicators, the correlation coefficient between duration and Treasury bond yield and the timing accuracy rate, are constructed to test the fund's timing ability. The results show that high - performing funds have a higher timing accuracy rate and a stronger negative correlation between duration and interest - rate trends [72][77].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%. The gross profit reached 2.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. The gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 36.7%, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of sequential improvement. The Non-GAAP net profit was 790 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 233% [2][5]. Revenue Performance - The advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.57 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by improved advertising product supply and algorithmic enhancements. The revenue from value-added services was 3.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily due to higher income from paid memberships. Revenue from IP derivatives and other businesses reached 580 million yuan, boosted by successful offline events. However, mobile game revenue declined by 17% year-on-year to 1.51 billion yuan, attributed to high base effects from a previous title [9]. Operational Metrics - The community ecosystem of the company remains vibrant, with Daily Active Users (DAU) reaching 117 million (up 9% year-on-year) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) at 376 million (up 8% year-on-year). The average daily usage time increased by 6 minutes to 112 minutes. Approximately 2.5 million content creators earned income on the platform, with average earnings per creator rising by 22% year-on-year. The number of premium members reached 25.4 million, and the retention rate for formal members after 12 months was 80% [9]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit for Q3 2025 increased by 11% to 2.82 billion yuan, driven by growth in high-margin businesses and effective cost control. The gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 36.7%. Sales expenses decreased by 13% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced marketing costs for games, while R&D expenses remained stable. The Non-GAAP net profit of 790 million yuan represented a year-on-year increase of 233%, and the net operating cash flow was 2.02 billion yuan, indicating nine consecutive quarters of positive operating cash flow, suggesting a healthy business cycle [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The financing ecosystem for China's biopharmaceutical industry is gradually moving towards a positive cycle, driven by the influx of funds from A/H listings and capital increases of innovative drug companies, which is expected to improve the investment sentiment in innovative drug R&D [2][43] - The widening IPO channels for innovative drugs and the substantial fundraising from these listings are expected to enhance R&D investments [6][33] - The increase in the scale of capital increases by listed pharmaceutical companies is further strengthening their cash reserves [7][35] - The biopharmaceutical investment and financing amounts in China are likely at a turning point, showing signs of recovery [8][38] - The upfront payments from external business development (BD) have become a significant new source of funding for R&D, indicating a shift in funding dynamics [9][41] Summary by Sections Innovative Drug IPOs - The IPO channels for innovative drug companies have expanded, with a resurgence in the Hong Kong IPO market and the opening of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for unprofitable companies, leading to a significant increase in fundraising [6][29][33] Capital Increases - There has been a notable increase in the scale of capital increases among listed pharmaceutical companies, particularly in the Hong Kong market, with the highest quarterly capital increase since 2019 recorded in Q3 2025 [7][35] Investment and Financing Trends - The investment and financing amounts in China's biopharmaceutical sector reached a new high of $1.76 billion in Q3 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the market [8][38] External Business Development Payments - The amount of upfront payments from external BD reached $1.85 billion in Q3 2025, surpassing the investment and financing amounts, highlighting its importance as a funding source for R&D [9][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in its core automotive business, driven by the rapid adoption of new energy vehicles in Europe, while also making significant strides in new business areas such as robotics, liquid cooling, and low-altitude economy [10][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in automotive exterior parts and has successfully expanded into the battery box business since 2017, becoming one of the top players in this sector. The ongoing increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to further boost the company's core business growth [3][7]. Business Performance - The company is entering a capacity harvesting phase, with operational efficiency improving and profitability on an upward trajectory. The capital expenditure peaked in 2022 at 34.1 billion, but is projected to decrease significantly in 2024, supporting future dividend increases [6][26]. Battery Box Business - As one of the largest battery box suppliers globally, the company benefits from Europe's clear carbon reduction goals and the resurgence of electric vehicle subsidies. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to reach approximately 19.6% in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [7][49]. New Business Ventures - The company is strategically diversifying into multiple business areas, including robotics, liquid cooling, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to create new growth trajectories. The robotics sector is projected to see significant advancements by 2025, while liquid cooling is becoming increasingly important due to rising energy efficiency demands [8][9]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see substantial increases in net profit, with projections of 28.1 billion, 33.1 billion, and 40.6 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 12.9X, 11.0X, and 8.9X [10][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 990 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 81 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 48 million yuan, a decline of 26% year-on-year [2][6] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year but down 22% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 86% [2][6] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was approximately 21.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The gross margin for the third quarter was about 17.8%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year and down 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [12] - The company is expected to benefit from the new refrigerator energy efficiency standards set to be implemented on June 1, 2026, which are anticipated to enhance energy efficiency by approximately 40% [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 990 million yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 81 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 48 million yuan, a decline of 26% year-on-year [2][6] - In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year but down 22% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 86% [2][6] Market Trends - The company is focusing on the domestic refrigerator energy efficiency standards, which are expected to increase the penetration rate of VIP materials. Currently, the penetration rate of vacuum insulation board materials in domestic refrigerators is less than 5%, indicating significant growth potential compared to Europe and Japan [12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 220 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 46, 31, and 23 times [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a revenue of 239.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Total sales reached 2.17 million vehicles, up 45.7% year-on-year, with a core net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.62 billion yuan, an increase of 59% year-on-year [2][4] - The new platform has empowered Geely to enter a new product era, with the GEA architecture supporting a new vehicle cycle. The brands Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy are all performing well, and the transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, leading to increased profitability [2][8] - The company’s strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets. The intelligent driving strategy is accelerating the enhancement of driving capabilities, indicating significant profit elasticity in the new vehicle cycle [2][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely achieved a revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. Total sales for Q3 were 761,000 vehicles, with significant growth in the Galaxy and Lynk & Co brands [8] - The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.3%, with a single vehicle profit of 5,000 yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year [8] Brand Performance - In Q3, Zeekr and Lynk & Co combined sales reached 140,000 vehicles, with total revenue of 31.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. However, both brands reported a net loss of 460 million yuan for the quarter [8] Strategic Initiatives - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant focus on electric and intelligent vehicles. The new models will feature advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [8] - The company is focusing on brand strategy, with a strong emphasis on electrification and intelligence, supported by a robust new vehicle cycle [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.38 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The gross margin was 20.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. The net loss was 380 million, narrowing by 1.43 billion year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net loss was 150 million, narrowing by 1.38 billion year-on-year [2][4][8]. - The company is expected to see accelerated sales growth due to its leading smart driving capabilities, a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Financial improvements are anticipated from scale increases, cost reductions from platforms and technology, and the expansion of software profitability and overseas growth [2][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a total delivery volume of 116,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue was 18.05 billion, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a single vehicle revenue of 176,000, down 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. The automotive business gross margin was 13.1%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Service revenue reached 2.33 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%. The service business gross margin was 74.6%, up 14.5 percentage points year-on-year and 21.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Cost Management - The company’s R&D expenses were 2.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1%, with an R&D expense ratio of 11.9%. Selling and general expenses were 2.49 billion, up 52.6% year-on-year and 15.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a selling and general expense ratio of 12.2% [8]. Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Revenue is projected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [8]. - The company is positioned for a strong new vehicle cycle with multiple new models expected to enhance sales. The advancements in AI technology and smart driving capabilities are anticipated to create a significant competitive advantage, with revenue projections of 77.3 billion and 130.2 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8].