上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 03 月 06 日 中望软件 (688083) ——收入平稳增长，AI+CAD 倒计时 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 03 月 06 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 95.29 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 126.98/54.78 | | 市净率 | 4.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.47 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 11,559 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,381.10/10,898.75 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 21.49 | | 资产负债率% | | 13.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | | 121/121 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-06 04-06 05-06 06-06 07-0 ...

上 市 公 司 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 06 日 容知日新 (688768) ——业绩符合预期，AI 赋能 PHM 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 53.53 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 57.74/18.74 | | 市净率 | 5.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.21 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 4,369 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,381.10/10,898.75 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.83 | | 资产负债率% | 22.77 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 87/82 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-06 04-06 05-06 06-06 07-06 08-06 09-06 10-06 11-06 12-06 01- ...

上 市 公 司 机械设备 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.93 | | 资产负债率% | 39.70 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 95/58 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-05 04-05 05-05 06-05 07-05 08-05 09-05 10-05 11-05 12-05 01-05 02-05 03-05 -50% 0% 50% 逸飞激光 沪深300指数 (收益率) 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 06 日 逸飞激光 (688646) ——圆柱全极耳焊接设备单项冠军，积极拓展新行业应用 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 36.85 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | ...

——正式发布物理 AI 平台，CAE 行业整合优势突出 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 95.04 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 121.38/38.21 | | 市净率 | 3.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.47 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 4,616 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,381.10/10,898.75 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 30.87 | | 资产负债率% | 3.67 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 89/49 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 03 月 06 日 索辰科技 (688507) 03-06 04-06 05-06 06-06 07-06 08-06 09-0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.739 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%. The Q4 revenue was 9.764 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on pulp prices. The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 3.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][7] - The company is expected to see sequential improvement in H1 2025, driven by a recovery in cultural paper prices and a favorable demand environment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan): - 2023: 39,544 - 2024E: 40,739 - 2025E: 43,591 - 2026E: 49,729 - Year-on-year growth rate (%): - 2024E: 3.0% - 2025E: 7.0% - 2026E: 14.1% - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): - 2024E: 3,126 - 2025E: 3,537 - 2026E: 4,164 - Earnings per share (yuan/share): - 2024E: 1.12 - 2025E: 1.27 - 2026E: 1.49 - Gross margin (%): - 2024E: 16.8% - 2025E: 16.7% - 2026E: 16.5% - Return on equity (ROE %): - 2024E: 11.0% - 2025E: 11.5% - 2026E: 12.3% [2][6][7] Market Data - Closing price (yuan): 14.32 - Market capitalization (million yuan): 39,742 - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): - 2024E: 13 - 2025E: 11 - 2026E: 10 - Dividend yield (%): 2.09 [3][6] Company Strategy and Outlook - The company is advancing its integrated forestry-pulp-paper strategy, with plans to increase plantation areas in Laos and expand production capacity in various locations, which is expected to support future growth [7] - The diversified product portfolio is designed to mitigate cyclical disruptions, and the company is positioned to benefit from cost advantages and operational optimizations in its production processes [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth since its establishment in 2002, with revenue increasing from 45.98 million yuan to 5.076 billion yuan from 2005 to 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 30% [4][20]. - The company has diversified its business into five major segments: optical components, film optical panels, semiconductor optics, automotive electronics (AR+), and reflective materials [4][16]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the AR-HUD market, with a projected revenue of 62 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit of 10.8 billion yuan [7][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has built a strong client base, including major brands like Apple, Huawei, Samsung, and Sony, and has evolved through three stages: from a filter supplier to a leading optical component ODM supplier [4][22][23]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: 6.16 billion yuan, Net Profit: 1.08 billion yuan - 2025E Revenue: 7.42 billion yuan, Net Profit: 1.30 billion yuan - 2026E Revenue: 8.48 billion yuan, Net Profit: 1.52 billion yuan - The projected PE for 2025 is 27X, which is lower than the average PE of comparable companies at 32X [5][7]. Business Model Evolution - The company has transitioned from a manufacturing-focused model to a research and development-driven model, enhancing its competitive edge in the optical market [6][21]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on automotive optics and AR technologies, with significant investments in AR-HUD and micro-prism components, which are expected to drive future growth [39][48]. Market Position - The company ranks third in the AR-HUD market share in China, with a projected installation volume of 164,429 units in 2024, capturing 17.4% of the market [46].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of China Oriental Education to "Buy" [1][5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in revenue and profit margins over the next three years, driven by refined operational strategies and market-oriented training systems [3][5][10]. - The average training participants are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 165,000 participants by 2026 [5][10][11]. - Revenue is anticipated to increase to 4.08 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 5.6% during the same period [5][10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Refined Operational Strategy - The company has reduced the number of its teaching centers to 234, optimizing capacity utilization from 72.2% in 2023 to 75.9% in 2024, and further to 79.8% by 2026 [4][19][29]. - Marketing efficiency is expected to improve, with the marketing expense ratio decreasing from approximately 26.1% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2024, and further to 22.9% by 2026 [4][11][46]. 2. Expanding Market for High School and College Graduates - The company is developing mid-cycle courses of 15 months to 1.5 years to cater to the training needs of high school and college graduates, which is expected to enhance enrollment [51][52]. - The introduction of the Oumandi brand in the beauty and wellness training sector is projected to achieve 11,500 training participants by 2026, contributing 470 million yuan to total revenue, accounting for 10% [5][59]. 3. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 4.08 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 488 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [6][10]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 12% in 2024 to 14.8% by 2026, driven by scale effects and cost control measures [5][10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the stock [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the electric two-wheeler industry, accelerating its internationalization and digital transformation. It has a strong product matrix that includes electric bicycles and tricycles, with a solid production capability and compliance with relevant regulations [6][19]. - The upcoming implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles is expected to drive a peak in replacement demand, creating significant market opportunities. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, with projected annual sales of electric two-wheelers remaining high at around 60 million units from 2025 to 2030 [6][9]. - The company's financial performance is steadily improving, with a focus on cost control and efficiency. It has demonstrated strong profitability compared to competitors, with a notable increase in net profit margins and a robust sales network expansion strategy [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 21,036 million yuan in 2023 to 30,221 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,881 million yuan in 2023 to 3,020 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.20 yuan in 2023 to 3.50 yuan in 2026, indicating strong earnings growth potential [2]. Market Data - As of March 4, 2025, the company's closing price was 41.89 yuan, with a market capitalization of 35,303 million yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19, which is expected to decrease to 12 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to its earnings growth [2][3]. Industry Dynamics - The electric bicycle industry is entering a replacement peak due to new regulations and policies that enhance compliance and safety standards. This is expected to create a favorable environment for leading companies like the one under review [6][45]. - The market for electric motorcycles and tricycles is also expanding, driven by consumer demand and regulatory support, particularly in Southeast Asia where the transition from fuel to electric is accelerating [6][9][45]. Operational Efficiency - The company has shown strong cost control capabilities, with a focus on enhancing sales and management efficiency. It has successfully maintained a stable dealer network while expanding its sales outlets [6][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 17.8% by 2026, supported by economies of scale and effective cost management strategies [2][8]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's strong market position, robust financial growth, and favorable industry trends, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the electric two-wheeler sector [6][7][9].

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 03 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 持续用力推动房地产止跌回稳，更大力度促进楼市健康发展 看好 ——两会政府工作报告点评 事件 ⚫ 2025 年 3 月 5 日，全国两会召开。国务院总理李强在政府工作报告中介绍今年政府工 作任务时提出，今年发展主要预期目标是国内生产总值增长 5%左右。实施适度宽松的 货币政策，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，更大力度促进楼市股市健康发展。持续用 力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。因城施策调减限制性措施，加力实施城中村和危旧房改 造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元，比上 年增加 5,000 亿元，重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方政府拖 欠企业账款等。适应人民群众高品质居住需要，完善标准规范，推动建设安全、舒适、 绿色、智慧的"好房子"。 点评 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the home appliance sector [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected 12.3% growth in retail sales of home appliances in 2024, reaching a historical high of 1,030.7 billion yuan, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [3]. - The continuation of the "old for new" appliance policy is expected to further stimulate sales, with over 62 million units sold in 2024, generating nearly 270 billion yuan in consumption [3]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. White goods sector benefiting from favorable real estate policies and "old for new" initiatives, recommending companies like Midea, Gree, and Haier [3]. 2. Export-driven companies such as Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co., which are expected to see revenue growth from large customer orders [3]. 3. Core components suppliers like Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment, which are positioned to benefit from increased demand in the white goods sector [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Growth - The retail sales of home appliances are projected to grow by 12.3% in 2024, reaching 1,030.7 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3]. - The government will implement special actions to boost consumption and improve the consumption environment [3]. "Old for New" Policy - The "old for new" policy will be expanded to cover 12 categories of appliances, with subsidies of up to 2,000 yuan per unit [3]. - In January 2025, sales of major appliances showed positive trends, with significant year-on-year growth in kitchen appliances [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on the white goods sector, highlighting Midea, Gree, and Haier as key players [3]. - Export-oriented companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are also recommended due to their stable profitability [3]. - Core component manufacturers such as Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment are expected to benefit from increased demand in the white goods market [3].