证 券 研 究 报 告 全球航空业复苏态势持续，机遇与挑战并存 2024年海外航空市场景气跟踪总结 证券分析师： 刘衣云 A0230524100007 闫海 A0230519010004 罗石 A0230524080012 研究支持： 刘衣云 A0230524100007 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 联系人： 刘衣云 A0230524100007 2025.3.8 海外航空市场2024年总结 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球视角：全球航空市场稳步复苏，运力运量保持增长。2024年全球航空旅客周转量（RPK）同比2023年增长10.4%，其 中国际RPK增长13.6%，国内RPK增长5.7%；2024年全行业运力投放（ASK）同比2023年增长8.7%，其中国际ASK增长 12.8%，国内ASK增长2.5%。旅客需求量呈现出高于运力投放的增长水平，带动市场客座率提升至83.5%，同比2023年增 长1.3pts。 ◼ 美国市场：市场结构性恢复，航司盈利能力分化。2024年美国航空公司利润率达到3.6%，同比小幅下滑。美国四大航 2024年业绩来看，受益于美国经济形势及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the potential for recovery in valuations and consumption driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the importance of consumption, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and improve residents' income in line with economic growth. This is expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector as it is considered a post-cycle industry [4][8]. - The report suggests that while the first quarter of 2025 may face challenges in sales for the liquor sector, improvements in the economy in the second half of the year could lead to a recovery in the industry's fundamentals and stock prices [4][8]. - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in leading companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, as well as in the broader consumer goods sector, which is expected to see rational revenue and profit improvements [4][8]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 1.53%, although the sector underperformed compared to the broader market [7][30]. - The report indicates that the liquor market is experiencing a price stabilization phase, with key products showing signs of bottoming out in pricing [9][30]. Liquor Sector Insights - Current prices for major liquor brands include Moutai at 2,210 RMB per bottle and 2,255 RMB per case, with slight weekly increases. Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 930 RMB [9][18]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is facing pressure on sales, but if leading companies maintain their pricing strategies, the market may stabilize further in the second quarter [9][30]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report highlights that consumer goods companies are expected to adopt more rational operational goals, leading to improved revenue and profitability in 2025. New retail formats are anticipated to drive growth in certain product categories [4][8]. - Specific companies such as Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from supportive policies and market trends [4][8]. Key Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 15.84 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.33 billion RMB, reflecting a 63.1% growth [12][17]. - The company demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts from sales reaching 20.43 billion RMB, a 47% increase compared to the previous year [12][17].

证券研究报告 如何看待保险行业的"引进来"与"走出去"？ ——保险行业"最前瞻"系列报告之一 证券分析师：罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 .. 1. 新"国十条"引领保险业"引进来"与"走出去"步入新阶段 3 2. 外资保险公司对中国大陆市场的探索 3. 中资保险机构"走出去"的尝试 4. 境外保险公司国际化业务的实践 5. 中资保险公司布局境外业务的建议 6. 风险提示 1. 新"国十条"落地，保险业"引进来"与"走出去"步入新阶段 2024年9月11日，国务院发布《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》，标志着引领保险行业中长 期发展的第三个"国十条"正式落地。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 核心观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 新"国十条"有望开启保险机构"引进来"与"走出去"的新篇章。新"国十条"提出 "稳慎推进全球资产配置"、"支持优 质境外保险机构来华设立法人机构及分支机构。支持合格境外机构投资入股境内保险机构。鼓励中资保险机构稳步拓展海外业 务" 。1)"引进来":既是金融开放的重 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the electrolytic aluminum sector, indicating an upward trend in aluminum prices for 2025 [2][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the destocking of electrolytic aluminum is occurring earlier than in previous years, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance, which is expected to support aluminum prices [3][4]. - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, transitioning from losses at the end of the previous year to substantial profits in early 2025, driven by falling costs of alumina and electricity [3][18]. - The demand structure for aluminum is undergoing transformation, with significant growth expected in the new energy and power sectors, which will offset declines in the real estate sector [15][34]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 45.17 million tons, nearing its ceiling, with an operating capacity of 43.98 million tons and a utilization rate of 97.4% [15][34]. - The total inventory of electrolytic aluminum (ingots and rods) decreased by 25,100 tons compared to the previous week, indicating a shift towards destocking earlier than in past years [3][4]. Cost Analysis - The price of alumina has dropped significantly, with a reported price of 3,381 RMB/ton as of March 6, 2025, down 41.4% from its peak in December 2024, leading to a reduction in electrolytic aluminum production costs by approximately 4,597 RMB/ton [18][29]. - The price of coal has also decreased, with Q5500 coal prices falling to 700 RMB/ton, resulting in a corresponding drop in electricity costs for aluminum production [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and stable performance, such as Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, as potential investment opportunities [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [4][14] Core Insights - JD reported a revenue of RMB 347 billion for Q4 FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, exceeding expectations [8][9] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, up 34.2% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [12][14] - The company is expanding its trade-in policy and investing in its merchant ecosystem, which is expected to drive demand in electrical appliance categories [14] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,247,550 million - 2026E: RMB 1,310,176 million - 2027E: RMB 1,357,656 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are adjusted to: - 2025E: RMB 51,614 million - 2026E: RMB 55,319 million - 2027E: RMB 58,000 million [17][14] - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.3% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.5% in Q4 FY24, both showing year-on-year improvements [10][12] Business Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - JD is entering the food delivery market to synergize with its core retail business, enhancing user engagement and expanding consumption scenarios [13][14] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 255 million Class A ordinary shares for a total of USD 3.6 billion, which is about 8.1% of its outstanding shares [13][14] - The platform is expected to continue investing in high-potential categories such as apparel and beauty, which will enhance user appeal and drive scale expansion [9][14]

上 市 公 司 医药生物 2025 年 03 月 07 日 康乐卫士 (833575) ——国内九价 HPV 疫苗取得关键进展，三价 HPV 疫苗报 产在即 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 03 月 06 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 25.98/14.72 | | 市净率 | 7.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,288 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,381.10/10,898.75 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 2.26 | | 资产负债率% | 58.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 281/188 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-06 04-06 05-06 06-06 07-06 08-06 09-06 10-06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Zijin Mining [6][7]. Core Views - Zijin Mining is positioned as a leading global mining company with significant reserves of copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum. The company aims to achieve its key economic targets two years ahead of schedule, with copper production expected to reach 1.5-1.6 million tons and gold production 1-1.1 million tons by 2028 [6][7]. - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% for copper and 8% for gold production over the past decade [34][38]. - Zijin Mining's strategy includes both external acquisitions and internal exploration, leading to rapid resource growth. The company has successfully acquired several mines during periods of low commodity prices, enhancing its production capacity [6][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Copper and Gold Leader - The company ranks fifth globally in copper production and seventh in gold production, with significant reserves of 32.9 million tons of copper and 1,119.6 tons of gold as of mid-2024 [15][20]. - The company has ambitious plans to increase its production capacity significantly by 2028, aiming for a total output of 1.5-1.6 million tons of copper and 100-110 tons of gold [26][27]. 2. Strong Low-Grade Ore Processing and Large-Scale Construction - Zijin Mining has a mature experience in low-grade ore mining and a strong capability in integrated large-scale development, which allows for shorter construction periods and lower costs [28][29]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its copper and gold resource volumes, with a 10-year CAGR of approximately 22% for copper and 12% for gold [34][38]. 3. Focus on Copper and Gold Mining Regions - The company is expanding its copper production through several major projects, including the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa Copper Mine, which are expected to significantly boost output [49][50]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is actively acquiring and upgrading existing mines, with several projects expected to enhance gold production in the coming years [59][60]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 31.97 billion, 38.89 billion, and 44.39 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [6][7][22]. - The report highlights a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow increasing from 8.6 billion yuan in 2016 to 36.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [34]. 5. Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a shift in central bank purchasing behavior, while copper prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.49%, with a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 2.67% year-on-year. However, the Q4 performance was below market expectations, with a revenue of 1.250 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 13.95% [4][7] - The traditional business continues to grow steadily, while the second growth curve is accelerating beyond expectations, particularly in online business, which saw explosive growth [7] - The company plans to raise 2.5 billion yuan for investments in low-altitude and AI cloud platforms, which will strengthen its technological moat and support long-term sustainable development [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue growth from 4.438 billion yuan in 2025 to 8.730 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 446 million yuan to 915 million yuan [6][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 49.59%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin decreased to 16.14% due to significant impairment losses [7] - The report anticipates a decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased investments and credit impairment losses, with revised net profit estimates of 4.46 billion yuan and 6.37 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][17]. Core Views - The company's FY2025H1 financial results met expectations, with revenue of 33.465 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and sales volume of 11.4 million tons, up 14% year-on-year [6][8]. - The company's integrated supply chain advantages are becoming evident, and there is an expectation for improvement in industry conditions in the future [6][8]. - The company is expected to continue its strategy of pulp-paper integration and product diversification to stabilize profitability amid industry fluctuations [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 56.739 billion RMB - 2024: 59.496 billion RMB - 2025E: 67.398 billion RMB - 2026E: 78.629 billion RMB - 2027E: 87.218 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -12% for 2023, 5% for 2024, 13% for 2025E, 17% for 2026E, and 11% for 2027E [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: -2.383 billion RMB - 2024: 0.751 billion RMB - 2025E: 1.179 billion RMB - 2026E: 1.993 billion RMB - 2027E: 3.002 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at -173% for 2023, 131% for 2024, 57% for 2025E, 69% for 2026E, and 51% for 2027E [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (previously "Buy") due to external demand pressure and a downward revision of profit forecasts [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit of 8.52 billion yuan, up 6.19% year-on-year. However, the Q4 performance was below market expectations, with a revenue of 23.74 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth and a net profit decline of 23.8% [9]. - The company is focusing on new product development and channel expansion to drive growth, particularly in the sunflower seed and nut segments, despite facing raw material cost pressures [9]. - The company anticipates a stable performance in the upcoming year, with new products like potato chips and peanuts expected to contribute positively to sales [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 68.06 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth to 73.92 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 8.03 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 8.52 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.55 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline due to rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds, impacting profitability [9].