2025 年 03 月 05 日 两会提案聚焦科技，智能化将全面 提升产品力 看好 ——两会汽车行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 2025 年全国两会分别于 3 月 4 日和 3 月 5 日在北京召开。历年全国两会，"智能网 联"与"新能源汽车"均为汽车界代表委员们热议的焦点话题。本届两会尤其强调人工 智能、智能驾驶、新能源等领域的政策布局。我们相信智能化/Ai/机器人是今年汽车板 块的重要主线，而需求复苏将成为一条重要的支撑岸线贯穿全年行情，同时随上半年以 旧换新政策效果快速落地，情绪面依然乐观。 ⚫ 智能驾驶加速落地，技术标准与区域协同成关键。小米集团董事长、全国人大代表雷军 建议加快完善自动驾驶法律法规，明确合法上路 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese agricultural imports, particularly focusing on grains, meat, and other agricultural products [2]. - It highlights that China's reliance on U.S. imports for certain agricultural products has decreased since the 2018 trade war, with significant shifts in import sources [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security in China's trade policies and suggests that short-term supply constraints may support prices for corn and soybean meal, affecting livestock profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Grains - Tariffs of 15% on wheat and corn, and 10% on sorghum and soybeans will impact supply, but China's self-sufficiency in rice is strong [2]. - China's soybean imports have stabilized between 90 million to 100 million tons, with a significant portion sourced from Brazil [2][3]. - The report notes that the U.S. share of soybean imports has decreased from 34% in 2017 to 21% in 2024 [2]. Meat - The report states that U.S. imports of meat products are minimal, with chicken imports making up about 6.6% of total consumption, and only 0.7% from the U.S. [2]. - For pork, the import share is around 2%, with U.S. imports constituting 0.1% of total consumption [2]. - Beef imports are more significant, with 27% of consumption coming from imports, and 5% from the U.S. [2]. Other Products - Cotton imports are noted to be 33.2% of total consumption, with about one-third sourced from the U.S. [2]. - The report indicates that vegetable and fruit imports are relatively low, with less than 3% of total consumption coming from imports [2]. - Dairy products have an import share of about 5%, with U.S. imports being a minor fraction [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in seed and planting, such as Longping High-Tech and Dena Seed, as well as livestock companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2]. - It highlights that soybeans, sorghum, and cotton have relatively high import shares from the U.S., indicating potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the air conditioning and white goods segments [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the home appliance sector for January 2025, with air conditioning sales declining domestically while exports continue to grow [5][6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: white goods, export-driven companies, and core components suppliers, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in these areas [5]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - **Production and Sales**: In January 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 16.67 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%, while sales reached 17.73 million units, an increase of 8.70%. Domestic sales fell by 1.50% to 7.21 million units, while exports rose by 17.00% to 10.52 million units [5][6]. - **Retail Performance**: Offline retail sales for air conditioners saw a decline of 2.9% in volume and 0.5% in value. Online sales dropped significantly, with a 27% decrease in volume and a 34% decrease in value [5][23]. Refrigerators and Washing Machines - **Sales Trends**: In January, refrigerator sales fell by 2.9% in volume and value, while washing machines experienced a more significant decline of 17.4% in volume and 14.4% in value [28]. - **Market Share**: Haier maintained a strong market share in both categories, with a slight increase in refrigerator sales despite overall market declines [28]. Kitchen Appliances - **Traditional Appliances**: Sales of traditional kitchen appliances like range hoods and gas stoves continued to grow, with range hood sales up 3.7% and gas stove sales up 4.1% [35]. - **Emerging Appliances**: Sales of dishwashers saw a significant decline, with a 43.26% drop in volume and a 42.87% drop in value [48]. Small Household Appliances - **Sales Performance**: The report notes a decline in sales for rice cookers and air fryers, with rice cooker sales down 12.0% and air fryer sales down 23.6% [52][56]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates a shift in consumer preferences, impacting the sales of various small appliances [61]. Investment Recommendations - **White Goods**: The report recommends investing in companies like Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and government policies [5]. - **Export Opportunities**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are highlighted for their potential growth driven by export orders [5]. - **Core Components**: The report suggests investing in companies like Huaxiang and Shun'an, which are positioned to benefit from increased demand for core components in the home appliance sector [5].

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 03 月 05 日 机器人、低空经济产业崛起，高端 制造、设备更新再现机遇 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟（男） A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 研究支持 苏萌 A0230524080011 sumeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 看好 ——2025 年《政府工作报告》机械行业相关内容点评 事件： ⚫ 2025 年 3 月 4 日，中国人民政治协商会议第十四届全国委员会第三次会议正式开幕； 2025 年 3 月 5 日，中华人民共和国第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在京开幕， 国务院总理李强作《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）。 点评： ⚫ 风险提示：政策落地节奏不及预期；产业技术进展不及预期风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 苏萌 (8621)23297818× sumeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Neutral" to the company based on its AHP score of 1.47, which places it in the 19.6% percentile of the non-innovation system AHP model [3][7]. Core Insights - The company, Xinya Cable, is a well-known cable enterprise in South China, deeply serving the Southern Power Grid and State Grid, with a strong presence in various sectors including power, rail transportation, construction, and renewable energy [3][8]. - The company's performance is expected to grow due to increased investment in the power grid and rising demand in non-grid sectors, with a projected investment of 2.9 trillion yuan in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the power grid [3][12]. - Compared to its peers, Xinya Cable has a smaller revenue scale but shows continuous growth in net profit, although its gross margin and R&D expense ratio are significantly lower than those of comparable companies [3][15][17]. Summary by Sections 1. AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score for Xinya Cable is 1.47, with a secondary score of 2.06, indicating positions in the downstream and midstream categories [3][7]. - Expected allocation ratios for offline investors are 0.0184% for Class A and 0.0113% for Class B under neutral conditions [8]. 2. Company Fundamentals and Highlights 2.1 Industry Position - Xinya Cable specializes in electric wires and cables, recognized for its advanced products in the industry, and has been rated among the top 100 most competitive companies in China's cable industry [8][9]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including State Grid and Southern Power Grid, and has participated in significant infrastructure projects [9][10]. 2.2 Growth Potential - The company is poised to benefit from the ongoing investment in the power grid and the growing demand in sectors such as electrified railways and data centers, which will provide additional growth opportunities [12][14]. 3. Financial Comparison with Peers 3.1 Revenue and Profit Growth - Xinya Cable's revenue from 2021 to 2023 was 28.93 billion, 27.63 billion, and 30.13 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.96 billion, 1.11 billion, and 1.64 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.04% for revenue and 30.55% for net profit, both of which are above the average of comparable companies [15][16]. 3.2 Margin and R&D Expenditure - The gross margins for Xinya Cable from 2021 to 2023 were 9.21%, 9.85%, and 11.74%, which are significantly lower than those of comparable companies due to differences in product structure and customer types [17][19]. - The R&D expense ratio for the same period was below 1%, indicating lower investment in innovation compared to peers [17][19]. 4. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds through the issuance of up to 62 million new shares, with proceeds allocated to projects aimed at enhancing production capacity and R&D capabilities [22][23]. - Key projects include the smart manufacturing of cables and the establishment of a research and testing center, expected to improve product variety and market competitiveness [22][23].

⚫ 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强在两会政府工作报告中指出：2025 年国内生产总 值增长目标 5%左右，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策， 实施适度宽松的货币政策，扩大国内需求，高质量完成"十四五"规划目标任 务，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 点评： ⚫ 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，企业新签订单不及预期。 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 建筑装饰 2025 年 03 月 05 日 经济增长目标强劲，投资有望成为核心助力 看好 ——2025 年两会政府工作报告点评 事件： 证 券 研 究 报 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共5页 ...

| 市场数据： 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 25.92 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 29.77/14.53 | | 市净率 | 0.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.86 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 8,114 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,324.21/10,679.44 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 03 月 05 日 大商股份 (600694) ——公司发布股权激励计划，绑定核心高管调改稳步推进 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 27.60 | | 资产负债率% | 49.14 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 313/313 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-04 04-04 05-04 06-04 07-04 08-04 09-04 10-04 11-04 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The completion of the transfer center acquisition in Yiwu is expected to enhance network efficiency and market share [8]. - The company has shown confidence through continuous share buybacks, which are anticipated to strengthen employee motivation and network cohesion [8]. - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 projected at 1.006 billion, 1.383 billion, and 1.685 billion respectively, reflecting significant growth rates [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 40.924 billion in 2023 to 66.897 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.7% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 341 million in 2023 to 1.685 billion by 2026, indicating a CAGR of 37.5% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.23 in 2023 to 1.10 by 2026 [6].

2025 年 03 月 05 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——2 月销量"淡季不淡"，强势新车周期来袭 上 市 公 司 汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 78.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8367.47 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 90.00/25.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,499.46 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,551.74 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0841 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -30% 70% 170% 03/04 04/04 05/04 06/04 07/04 08/04 09/04 10/04 11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total sales volume of 77,900 vehicles in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.65% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.77% [4] - The company is expected to enter a new vehicle cycle soon, with significant model launches planned, including the Tank 400 and the 2025 Tank 300, which are anticipated to drive sales growth [7] - The company aims for substantial sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, projecting domestic sales to reach 1.13 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and overseas sales to reach 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [7] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 25.08 CNY - Market capitalization: 155,342 million CNY - Price-to-book ratio: 2.8 - Dividend yield: 1.20% [1] Sales Performance - February sales breakdown: - Haval: 43,300 units (YoY -3.20%, MoM -10.82%) - Wey: 3,643 units (YoY +37.52%, MoM -27.24%) - Pickup trucks: 17,300 units (YoY +65.04%, MoM +40.11%) - Ora: 1,898 units (YoY -36.86%, MoM -13.45%) - Tank: 1,180 units (YoY +15.72%, MoM -8.43%) [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025: 243,546 million CNY - Net profit forecast for 2025: 15,676 million CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025: 1.83 CNY - Projected growth rates: Revenue growth of 26.1% in 2025 and net profit growth of 25.7% in 2025 [5][10] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its product lineup with new models and technological advancements, particularly in smart driving capabilities, which are expected to improve brand reputation and user coverage [7] - The company is also set to benefit from local production in Brazil, which will help mitigate risks associated with tax increases in other markets [7]