Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for CR Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.29, implying a potential upside of 45.1% [1][2] Core Views - Short-term pressure on beer consumption environment due to weak performance in the catering channel, which accounts for over 40% of beer sales [1] - CR Beer outperformed the industry with mid-to-high-end beer sales exceeding 50% of total sales for the first time in H1 2024 [1] - High-end products such as Heineken, Lao Xue, and Red Label achieved over 20% YoY growth in sales [1] - Management remains confident in long-term growth through premiumization, product differentiation, and regional expansion [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 23.74 billion, a slight decline of 0.5% YoY [1] - Beer business revenue declined by 1.4% YoY to RMB 22.57 billion, with volume down 3.4% but average price up 2.0% [1] - Gross margin for beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8% due to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs [1] - Liquor business revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 1.18 billion, with gross margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.2% YoY to RMB 4.7 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue expected to grow from RMB 39.78 billion in 2024E to RMB 42.70 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 2.2% [3] - Net profit projected to increase from RMB 5.33 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.56 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.1% [3] - EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 1.64 in 2024E to RMB 2.02 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 42.6% in 2024E to 45.4% in 2026E [9] Valuation - Target price of HKD 37.29 based on 19x 2025E P/E, a discount of 1 standard deviation from the 3-year historical average [1] - Current P/E ratio of 14.6x for 2024E, expected to decline to 11.8x by 2026E [3] - Dividend yield forecasted to increase from 3.4% in 2024E to 4.2% in 2026E [3] Industry Context - Beer industry faced significant pressure in 2024, with overall high-endization slowing down [1] - CR Beer's high-end product growth outperformed the industry, with double-digit growth in premium products [1] - Management aims for double-digit volume growth in favorable economic conditions and single-digit growth in normal conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for China Taiping Insurance (966 HK) with a target price increase to **HKD 15.0**, representing a potential upside of **25.4%** [1][2] Core Views - The company's **2024 full-year profit growth** is expected to accelerate compared to the first half, driven by a low base in the second half of 2023 [1] - **New business value (NBV)** growth is projected to remain ahead of peers, with a **56% YoY increase** in 2024, following an **85.5% YoY growth** in the first half of 2024 [2] - The report highlights that **fiscal policy support** is expected to continue, which will benefit the company's asset-side performance [2] Profit Forecast Adjustments - **NBV** for 2024E is revised upward by **3.2%** to **HKD 11,694 million**, while the **NBV margin** is adjusted up by **0.6 percentage points** to **31.2%** [3] - **Embedded value (EV)** for 2024E is slightly increased by **0.1%** to **HKD 221,422 million**, with a similar adjustment for **life insurance EV** [3] - **Return on average equity (ROAE)** for 2024E is adjusted downward by **0.1 percentage points** to **8.8%** [3] Financial Projections - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is expected to grow by **40.3% YoY** in 2024E, reaching **HKD 8,685 million**, followed by a **3.7% increase** in 2025E [6] - **Total investment yield** is projected to improve to **4.01%** in 2024E, up from **2.66%** in 2023 [6] - **Combined ratio** for 2024E is forecasted at **97.5%**, consistent with the previous estimate [3] Key Metrics - **Life insurance premium service income** is expected to grow by **5.0%** in 2024E, while **property insurance premium service income** is projected to increase by **3.0%** [6] - **Contractual service margin (CSM)** for 2024E is estimated at **HKD 210,829 million**, with a **0.2% YoY growth** [6] - **Dividend per share** is forecasted to increase to **HKD 0.40** in 2024E, up from **HKD 0.30** in 2023 [6] Peer Comparison - Among peers, China Taiping Insurance has the **second-highest potential upside** of **25.4%**, following China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with **31.4%** [10] - The company is categorized as a **mainland life insurer**, alongside peers such as Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) [10]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price increase to HKD 22.88, implying a potential upside of 29.3% [1][3][10] Core Views - Strong performance in international business drives target price upgrade [1] - Q3 2024 results meet expectations with revenue of RMB 2.97 billion, up 17.7% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.30 billion, up 15.0% YoY [1][6] - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance maintained at RMB 11.34-11.76 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be RMB 4.95-5.15 billion [1][6] - CAPEX guidance for 2024 increased from RMB 6.5 billion to RMB 11.0 billion to support accelerated expansion in both domestic and international markets [1] Domestic Business - Q3 2024 domestic revenue reached RMB 2.62 billion, up 6.1% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.21 billion, up 3.6% YoY [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for domestic business declined by 1.0 ppt YoY to 43.7% [2] - Newly added operational area in Q3 2024 was 25,647 sqm, significantly higher than 20,265 sqm in Q2 2024 [2] - Total operational area in China for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 62,744 sqm, surpassing the full-year 2023 figure of 48,739 sqm [2] International Business - Secured a large-scale contract in Batam with a committed/reserved capacity of 34/38MW, expected to be operational within 18 months [2] - Announced a multi-billion RMB investment in Thailand for a data center campus with a planned power capacity of 120MW [2] - Total locked capacity for international clients reached 431MW by Q3 2024, up from 111MW in Q3 2023 and 388MW in Q2 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 service revenue increased by 17.7% YoY to RMB 2.97 billion, with a 4.9% QoQ growth [6] - Adjusted gross profit rose by 20.4% YoY to RMB 1.50 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 50.7% [6] - Operating area reached 595,606 sqm, up 9.9% YoY, with a utilization rate of 73.6% [6] - Total committed and pre-committed area increased by 3.5% YoY to 626,783 sqm [6] Industry Coverage - The report also covers other data center companies such as SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) with a Buy rating and a target price of HKD 4.50, and 21Vianet Group (VNET US) which is unrated [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for iQIYI (IQ US) with a target price adjusted to $2.90, reflecting a potential upside of 43.6% from the current price of $2.02 [1][3][22]. Core Insights - iQIYI's membership revenue is expected to remain under pressure, with a projected decline of 13% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 [1]. - Advertising revenue may see slight growth due to seasonal factors, while content distribution revenue is anticipated to drop by 20% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-short dramas in enhancing user engagement and retention, despite the competitive landscape and content homogeneity [1]. - The strategic focus includes optimizing content production and operations, with a shift towards high ROI content and increased investment in micro-short dramas [2]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards due to ongoing uncertainties in content performance and membership pressures [1]. - The new revenue forecast for 2024 is set at RMB 29,244 million, a decrease of 3% from previous estimates [4]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,307 million, reflecting a 7% reduction from earlier predictions [4]. Quarterly Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, total revenue is reported at RMB 7,246 million, continuing a downward trend with a 10% year-on-year decline [15]. - Paid membership numbers decreased to 4,366 million, down 13% year-on-year, while online advertising revenue fell by 20% to RMB 1,337 million [15]. - The operating profit margin for Q3 2024 is noted at 3%, significantly lower than previous periods, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability [15]. Market Position and Trends - iQIYI's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.06 billion, with a significant decline of 58.61% year-to-date [1]. - The report highlights the competitive nature of the industry, stressing that long-term success will depend on content quality and innovation [1][2].

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|----------------|-------|----------|-------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | | 2024 年 11 月 22 日 | | | 美元 81.63 | 美元 107.00↓ | | +31.1% | | | | 百度 | (BIDU US) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 生成式 AI 搜索内容占比增至 20%，关注 2025 年变现进程 2024 年 3 季度业绩：收入 336 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 3%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。调整后净利润 59 亿元，对应净利率 18%，低 于我们/彭博预期 5%，营销及管理费用同比增 2%，高于我们预期 4%，因 渠道支出和推广费用增加。 百度核心业绩要点：收入 265 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price of $144.00, indicating a potential upside of 38.3% from the current price of $104.09 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the implementation of a 10 billion yuan subsidy policy has led to lower-than-expected commission income and profits, with Q3 performance falling short of expectations primarily due to reduced commission rates [1][2]. - The forecast for 2024 and 2025 profits has been revised down by 5% and 7% respectively, reflecting uncertainties in profit growth and risks associated with overseas tariff policies [1][3]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on commission rates into Q4, which may disrupt profit growth expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue increased by 44% year-on-year to 993.5 billion yuan, aligning with expectations but slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 274.6 billion yuan, a 61% increase year-on-year, but 6% lower than Bloomberg consensus due to higher-than-expected revenue costs [2]. - Advertising and commission revenues grew by 24% and 72% year-on-year respectively, with commission income falling short of Visible Alpha consensus by 5% [2]. - The report projects Q4 adjusted net profit to be 315.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year profit margin decline of 3 percentage points [2][7]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to 403,922 million yuan and 540,049 million yuan respectively, with minor changes of -0.1% and +0.3% [3]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E and 2025E are now 124,076 million yuan and 156,038 million yuan, reflecting downward adjustments of -5.2% and -7.5% [3][14]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is expected to decline, with projections of 30.1% for 2024E and 29.6% for 2025E [3][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that recent domestic appliance subsidy policies favor e-commerce platforms primarily operating through official flagship stores, which may require the company to increase subsidies to maintain competitive pricing [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue strategic support for quality merchants, which will involve sustained investment impacting Q4 profits [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) [1][4] Core Views - NVIDIA's FY3Q25 revenue reached $35.1 billion, exceeding the guidance midpoint of $32.5 billion and the forecast of $33.9 billion [1] - Data center revenue was $30.8 billion, up 17% QoQ and 112% YoY [1] - FY4Q25 revenue guidance is $37.5 billion (+/- 2%), which is $5 billion higher than the previous quarter's guidance [1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FY4Q25 is guided at 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [1] - Blackwell has started shipping in FY4Q25, with management maintaining the forecast of "billions" in revenue for the quarter [2] - Gross margin is expected to dip to 70%+ before rebounding to around 75% as Blackwell shipments ramp up [2] - Hopper shipments in FY4Q25 are expected to remain higher than FY3Q25 [2] - Blackwell is predicted to surpass Hopper in shipments by FY2Q26 [2] - Management emphasized the importance of post-training scaling and inference time scaling, highlighting the role of reinforcement learning in improving model utility [2] Financial Forecasts - FY4Q25 revenue forecast is revised upward to $38.1 billion (previously $35.4 billion), with data center revenue expected at $34 billion [3] - FY26 (CY25) full-year revenue is projected at $190.9 billion [3] - Gross margin is expected to bottom at 71.9% in FY1Q26 and recover to 75.1% by FY4Q26 [3] - Adjusted EPS for 2025/2026 is forecasted at $2.95/$4.32 [3] Financial Data - FY3Q25 actual revenue was $35.1 billion, compared to guidance of $32.5 billion and a forecast of $33.9 billion [6] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FY3Q25 was 75%, in line with guidance [6] - FY4Q25 revenue guidance is $37.5 billion (+/- 2%), with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [6] - FY26 revenue is projected at $190.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.6% [6] - Data center revenue for FY26 is forecasted at $173.4 billion [6] - Adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at $4.32 [6] Industry Coverage - The report covers other companies in the tech industry, including SMIC (981 HK), AMD (AMD US), Maxscend (300782 CH), and Will Semiconductor (603501 CH), all with "Buy" ratings [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 54.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.4% from the current price of HKD 46.40 [4][24]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of RMB 31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 3.9 billion, reflecting a 24% increase year-on-year, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 12.7% [1][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with e-commerce GMV projected to grow by 14% year-on-year, despite ongoing industry competition [2][22]. - The valuation remains attractive, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for profits from 2024 to 2026, and the current price corresponds to a 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 times [3][22]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 127.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 17.8 billion, with an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 4.04 [7][22]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 54% in Q4 2024, supported by cost control measures and revenue structure optimization [20][22]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 165.55 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 62.20 and a low of HKD 38.15 [6][22].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 4.04, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current closing price of HKD 3.29 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The supply-side reform is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies like the report's subject due to its lower energy consumption in production [2][3]. - Despite a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices, the company is positioned to maintain profitability and expand production while competitors struggle with losses [3][4]. - The company’s valuation metrics, such as a 2025 P/E ratio of 10.8 and P/B ratio of 0.84, are significantly lower than its peers, indicating a valuation advantage [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 20,544 million in 2022, HKD 26,629 million in 2023, and expected to decline to HKD 23,254 million in 2024, before rising to HKD 24,926 million in 2025 and HKD 28,965 million in 2026 [4][12]. - Net profit is projected to be HKD 3,820 million in 2022, HKD 4,187 million in 2023, with a decline to HKD 2,732 million in 2024, and then slightly recovering to HKD 2,715 million in 2025 and HKD 3,988 million in 2026 [4][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be HKD 0.43 in 2022, HKD 0.47 in 2023, dropping to HKD 0.31 in 2024, and then stabilizing at HKD 0.30 in 2025 and increasing to HKD 0.45 in 2026 [4][12]. Market Position - The company has a significant market position with a current market capitalization of HKD 29,868.10 million and a 52-week high of HKD 6.68 and a low of HKD 2.79 [5][10]. - The company’s production capacity has decreased from 25,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 25,200 tons, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 64.5% from the current price of HKD 36.40 [4][12]. Core Insights - NIO's fourth-quarter sales guidance is below expectations, with anticipated deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.9% to 49.9%. Revenue guidance for the fourth quarter is set between RMB 196.8 billion and RMB 203.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% to 19.2% [2][3]. - The decline in average selling price (ASP) is more significant than expected, with the ASP dropping to RMB 270,000, below market expectations and previous guidance of RMB 280,000 for the third quarter. This is attributed to increased promotional efforts by NIO [1][2]. - The report highlights that revenue for the third quarter is expected to be RMB 18.7 billion, slightly below expectations, with a gross margin of 10.7%, which is slightly above market expectations. The automotive gross margin improved to 13.1% due to lower battery costs and increased sales volume [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO's revenue is projected to reach RMB 62.847 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. However, net losses are expected to be RMB 16.867 billion, with a core loss per share of RMB 9.92 [7][15]. - The report indicates that NIO's sales and R&D expenses increased by 9.4% and 3.1% respectively, with sales expenses surpassing RMB 40 billion for the first time due to channel expansion and promotional activities [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the growth in sales volume next year will primarily come from the launch of new models under the NIO brand and the introduction of the lower-priced sub-brand, Firefly [2][3].