Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.39, representing a potential upside of 27.3% [1][4] Core Views - Short-term performance is pressured by challenges in the China market, but the company's long-term competitive strength remains intact [1] - The company's premium/super-premium product portfolio in China is expected to rebound as consumer spending recovers [1] - In Korea, the company has enhanced its competitiveness through increased investment and new product launches, with an 8.1% price increase on premium/super-premium products expected to boost profitability in 2025 [1] Regional Performance Asia Pacific West (China, India, Vietnam) - China market: Q3 2024 volume declined by 14.2%, average selling price (ASP) fell by 2.1%, leading to a 16.1% revenue drop [2] - India market: Continued strong growth with double-digit increases in premium/super-premium products, which account for 2/3 of India's revenue [2] - Overall APAC West: Volume and ASP declined by 13.5% and 1.9% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Asia Pacific East (Korea, Japan, New Zealand) - Korea market: Revenue grew by mid-teens in Q3 2024, driven by mid-single-digit volume growth and product mix optimization [2] - Overall APAC East: Volume and ASP increased by 3.9% and 11.4% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: USD 1.705 billion, down 9.4% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 479 million, down 16.6% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit: Down 25.0% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 revenue: USD 5.104 billion, down 6.1% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 1.579 billion, down 6.2% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 net profit: USD 777 million, down 11.6% YoY [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: USD 6.531 billion, down 4.7% YoY [7] - 2025E revenue: USD 6.740 billion, up 3.2% YoY [7] - 2026E revenue: USD 7.000 billion, up 3.9% YoY [7] - 2024E net profit: USD 751 million, down 11.7% YoY [7] - 2025E net profit: USD 830 million, up 10.5% YoY [7] - 2026E net profit: USD 924 million, up 11.3% YoY [7] Valuation Metrics - 2025E P/E: 19x (down from 22x average for 2024-25) [1] - 2024E P/E: 16.6x [7] - 2025E P/E: 15.0x [7] - 2026E P/E: 13.5x [7] Market Position - The company continues to gain market share in Korea through expansion in both on-premise and off-premise channels [2] - New product launches (e.g., Cass, HANMAC) in Korea have received positive market feedback [2]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for CR Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.29, implying a potential upside of 45.1% [1][2] Core Views - Short-term pressure on beer consumption environment due to weak performance in the catering channel, which accounts for over 40% of beer sales [1] - CR Beer outperformed the industry with mid-to-high-end beer sales exceeding 50% of total sales for the first time in H1 2024 [1] - High-end products such as Heineken, Lao Xue, and Red Label achieved over 20% YoY growth in sales [1] - Management remains confident in long-term growth through premiumization, product differentiation, and regional expansion [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 23.74 billion, a slight decline of 0.5% YoY [1] - Beer business revenue declined by 1.4% YoY to RMB 22.57 billion, with volume down 3.4% but average price up 2.0% [1] - Gross margin for beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8% due to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs [1] - Liquor business revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 1.18 billion, with gross margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.2% YoY to RMB 4.7 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue expected to grow from RMB 39.78 billion in 2024E to RMB 42.70 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 2.2% [3] - Net profit projected to increase from RMB 5.33 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.56 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.1% [3] - EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 1.64 in 2024E to RMB 2.02 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 42.6% in 2024E to 45.4% in 2026E [9] Valuation - Target price of HKD 37.29 based on 19x 2025E P/E, a discount of 1 standard deviation from the 3-year historical average [1] - Current P/E ratio of 14.6x for 2024E, expected to decline to 11.8x by 2026E [3] - Dividend yield forecasted to increase from 3.4% in 2024E to 4.2% in 2026E [3] Industry Context - Beer industry faced significant pressure in 2024, with overall high-endization slowing down [1] - CR Beer's high-end product growth outperformed the industry, with double-digit growth in premium products [1] - Management aims for double-digit volume growth in favorable economic conditions and single-digit growth in normal conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for China Taiping Insurance (966 HK) with a target price increase to **HKD 15.0**, representing a potential upside of **25.4%** [1][2] Core Views - The company's **2024 full-year profit growth** is expected to accelerate compared to the first half, driven by a low base in the second half of 2023 [1] - **New business value (NBV)** growth is projected to remain ahead of peers, with a **56% YoY increase** in 2024, following an **85.5% YoY growth** in the first half of 2024 [2] - The report highlights that **fiscal policy support** is expected to continue, which will benefit the company's asset-side performance [2] Profit Forecast Adjustments - **NBV** for 2024E is revised upward by **3.2%** to **HKD 11,694 million**, while the **NBV margin** is adjusted up by **0.6 percentage points** to **31.2%** [3] - **Embedded value (EV)** for 2024E is slightly increased by **0.1%** to **HKD 221,422 million**, with a similar adjustment for **life insurance EV** [3] - **Return on average equity (ROAE)** for 2024E is adjusted downward by **0.1 percentage points** to **8.8%** [3] Financial Projections - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is expected to grow by **40.3% YoY** in 2024E, reaching **HKD 8,685 million**, followed by a **3.7% increase** in 2025E [6] - **Total investment yield** is projected to improve to **4.01%** in 2024E, up from **2.66%** in 2023 [6] - **Combined ratio** for 2024E is forecasted at **97.5%**, consistent with the previous estimate [3] Key Metrics - **Life insurance premium service income** is expected to grow by **5.0%** in 2024E, while **property insurance premium service income** is projected to increase by **3.0%** [6] - **Contractual service margin (CSM)** for 2024E is estimated at **HKD 210,829 million**, with a **0.2% YoY growth** [6] - **Dividend per share** is forecasted to increase to **HKD 0.40** in 2024E, up from **HKD 0.30** in 2023 [6] Peer Comparison - Among peers, China Taiping Insurance has the **second-highest potential upside** of **25.4%**, following China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with **31.4%** [10] - The company is categorized as a **mainland life insurer**, alongside peers such as Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) [10]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price increase to HKD 22.88, implying a potential upside of 29.3% [1][3][10] Core Views - Strong performance in international business drives target price upgrade [1] - Q3 2024 results meet expectations with revenue of RMB 2.97 billion, up 17.7% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.30 billion, up 15.0% YoY [1][6] - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance maintained at RMB 11.34-11.76 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be RMB 4.95-5.15 billion [1][6] - CAPEX guidance for 2024 increased from RMB 6.5 billion to RMB 11.0 billion to support accelerated expansion in both domestic and international markets [1] Domestic Business - Q3 2024 domestic revenue reached RMB 2.62 billion, up 6.1% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.21 billion, up 3.6% YoY [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for domestic business declined by 1.0 ppt YoY to 43.7% [2] - Newly added operational area in Q3 2024 was 25,647 sqm, significantly higher than 20,265 sqm in Q2 2024 [2] - Total operational area in China for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 62,744 sqm, surpassing the full-year 2023 figure of 48,739 sqm [2] International Business - Secured a large-scale contract in Batam with a committed/reserved capacity of 34/38MW, expected to be operational within 18 months [2] - Announced a multi-billion RMB investment in Thailand for a data center campus with a planned power capacity of 120MW [2] - Total locked capacity for international clients reached 431MW by Q3 2024, up from 111MW in Q3 2023 and 388MW in Q2 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 service revenue increased by 17.7% YoY to RMB 2.97 billion, with a 4.9% QoQ growth [6] - Adjusted gross profit rose by 20.4% YoY to RMB 1.50 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 50.7% [6] - Operating area reached 595,606 sqm, up 9.9% YoY, with a utilization rate of 73.6% [6] - Total committed and pre-committed area increased by 3.5% YoY to 626,783 sqm [6] Industry Coverage - The report also covers other data center companies such as SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) with a Buy rating and a target price of HKD 4.50, and 21Vianet Group (VNET US) which is unrated [10]

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 展望：基于 10-11 月内容播放表现，我们预计 4 季度会员收入继续承压， 同/环比-13%/-5%。广告收入或受电商大促、手机/医药行业投放旺季带动 环比小幅增长。考虑较少的内容置换，预计内容发行收入同比降 20%。我 们预计微短剧内容增加有望丰富供给、提升对用户吸引及留存。但在短剧 内容同质化背景下，行业竞争激烈，预计长期内容质量及内容创新仍是决 胜点。我们建议关注微短剧投入、用户运营数据及商业化进展。 股份资料 52周高位 (美元) 5.79 52周低位 (美元) 1.96 市值 (百万美元) 1,060.94 日均成交量 (百万) 40.40 年初至今变化 (%) (58.61) 200天平均价 (美元) 3.21 资料来源: FactSet 盈利预测变动 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 2.02 美元 2.90↓ +43.6% 互联网 2024 年 11 月 22 日 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 会员持续承压，关注微短剧投入及商业化进展 我们下调爱奇艺 （IQ US） 的 2024/25 年收入及盈利预测，考虑剧集表现仍有 不确定性，短期会员压力持续。基于 10 倍 202 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|----------------|-------|----------|-------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | | 2024 年 11 月 22 日 | | | 美元 81.63 | 美元 107.00↓ | | +31.1% | | | | 百度 | (BIDU US) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 生成式 AI 搜索内容占比增至 20%，关注 2025 年变现进程 2024 年 3 季度业绩：收入 336 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 3%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。调整后净利润 59 亿元，对应净利率 18%，低 于我们/彭博预期 5%，营销及管理费用同比增 2%，高于我们预期 4%，因 渠道支出和推广费用增加。 百度核心业绩要点：收入 265 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price of $144.00, indicating a potential upside of 38.3% from the current price of $104.09 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the implementation of a 10 billion yuan subsidy policy has led to lower-than-expected commission income and profits, with Q3 performance falling short of expectations primarily due to reduced commission rates [1][2]. - The forecast for 2024 and 2025 profits has been revised down by 5% and 7% respectively, reflecting uncertainties in profit growth and risks associated with overseas tariff policies [1][3]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on commission rates into Q4, which may disrupt profit growth expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue increased by 44% year-on-year to 993.5 billion yuan, aligning with expectations but slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 274.6 billion yuan, a 61% increase year-on-year, but 6% lower than Bloomberg consensus due to higher-than-expected revenue costs [2]. - Advertising and commission revenues grew by 24% and 72% year-on-year respectively, with commission income falling short of Visible Alpha consensus by 5% [2]. - The report projects Q4 adjusted net profit to be 315.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year profit margin decline of 3 percentage points [2][7]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E have been adjusted to 403,922 million yuan and 540,049 million yuan respectively, with minor changes of -0.1% and +0.3% [3]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E and 2025E are now 124,076 million yuan and 156,038 million yuan, reflecting downward adjustments of -5.2% and -7.5% [3][14]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is expected to decline, with projections of 30.1% for 2024E and 29.6% for 2025E [3][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that recent domestic appliance subsidy policies favor e-commerce platforms primarily operating through official flagship stores, which may require the company to increase subsidies to maintain competitive pricing [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue strategic support for quality merchants, which will involve sustained investment impacting Q4 profits [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) [1][4] Core Views - NVIDIA's FY3Q25 revenue reached $35.1 billion, exceeding the guidance midpoint of $32.5 billion and the forecast of $33.9 billion [1] - Data center revenue was $30.8 billion, up 17% QoQ and 112% YoY [1] - FY4Q25 revenue guidance is $37.5 billion (+/- 2%), which is $5 billion higher than the previous quarter's guidance [1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FY4Q25 is guided at 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [1] - Blackwell has started shipping in FY4Q25, with management maintaining the forecast of "billions" in revenue for the quarter [2] - Gross margin is expected to dip to 70%+ before rebounding to around 75% as Blackwell shipments ramp up [2] - Hopper shipments in FY4Q25 are expected to remain higher than FY3Q25 [2] - Blackwell is predicted to surpass Hopper in shipments by FY2Q26 [2] - Management emphasized the importance of post-training scaling and inference time scaling, highlighting the role of reinforcement learning in improving model utility [2] Financial Forecasts - FY4Q25 revenue forecast is revised upward to $38.1 billion (previously $35.4 billion), with data center revenue expected at $34 billion [3] - FY26 (CY25) full-year revenue is projected at $190.9 billion [3] - Gross margin is expected to bottom at 71.9% in FY1Q26 and recover to 75.1% by FY4Q26 [3] - Adjusted EPS for 2025/2026 is forecasted at $2.95/$4.32 [3] Financial Data - FY3Q25 actual revenue was $35.1 billion, compared to guidance of $32.5 billion and a forecast of $33.9 billion [6] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FY3Q25 was 75%, in line with guidance [6] - FY4Q25 revenue guidance is $37.5 billion (+/- 2%), with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [6] - FY26 revenue is projected at $190.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.6% [6] - Data center revenue for FY26 is forecasted at $173.4 billion [6] - Adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at $4.32 [6] Industry Coverage - The report covers other companies in the tech industry, including SMIC (981 HK), AMD (AMD US), Maxscend (300782 CH), and Will Semiconductor (603501 CH), all with "Buy" ratings [7]

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|--------------|----------|---------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 11 月 21 日 | | 互联网 | 港元 46.40 | 港元 54.00 | +16.4% | | 3 季度业绩符合预期。快手 2024 年 3 季度总收入 311 亿元（人民币，下 同），同比增 11%，符合我们/市场预期。经调整净利润 39 亿元（同比 +24%），与我们/市场预期基本一致，对应经调整净利率 12.7%，环比降 2.4 个百分点，主要因奥运会内容版权摊销、短剧/电商补贴加大，以及 AI 研发投入增加。 业务概览：1）DAU 突破 4 亿，同比增 5%，总时长同比增 7%。2）电商 GMV 同比增 15%，符合预期，月均动销商家数（同比增 40%+）及月活跃 买家数（MAC 1.33 亿，同比+12%）维持增长趋势。泛货架 GMV 占比提升 至 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 4.04, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current closing price of HKD 3.29 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The supply-side reform is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies like the report's subject due to its lower energy consumption in production [2][3]. - Despite a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices, the company is positioned to maintain profitability and expand production while competitors struggle with losses [3][4]. - The company’s valuation metrics, such as a 2025 P/E ratio of 10.8 and P/B ratio of 0.84, are significantly lower than its peers, indicating a valuation advantage [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 20,544 million in 2022, HKD 26,629 million in 2023, and expected to decline to HKD 23,254 million in 2024, before rising to HKD 24,926 million in 2025 and HKD 28,965 million in 2026 [4][12]. - Net profit is projected to be HKD 3,820 million in 2022, HKD 4,187 million in 2023, with a decline to HKD 2,732 million in 2024, and then slightly recovering to HKD 2,715 million in 2025 and HKD 3,988 million in 2026 [4][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be HKD 0.43 in 2022, HKD 0.47 in 2023, dropping to HKD 0.31 in 2024, and then stabilizing at HKD 0.30 in 2025 and increasing to HKD 0.45 in 2026 [4][12]. Market Position - The company has a significant market position with a current market capitalization of HKD 29,868.10 million and a 52-week high of HKD 6.68 and a low of HKD 2.79 [5][10]. - The company’s production capacity has decreased from 25,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 25,200 tons, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [2][3].