Market Strategy - The report analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut on major asset classes, indicating that historically, gold and bonds tend to perform well, while stocks and commodities show mixed results, and the dollar generally declines [1][2]. Stock Market - Following the first rate cut, global stock markets typically exhibit a negative short-term response, but emerging markets tend to outperform developed markets. As of early 2024, developed markets have shown higher gains than emerging markets, suggesting potential for greater upside in emerging markets post-rate cut [1][2]. - In the U.S. stock market, short-term upside potential exists, but may be limited due to high valuations and uncertainty regarding economic conditions. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are expected to perform better during this period [1][2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to benefit from improved liquidity and global capital rebalancing, with current valuations at historical lows indicating significant recovery potential. High-beta and growth styles are expected to outperform [1][2]. Bond Market - The bond market generally shows stable positive returns following the Fed's first rate cut, serving as a safe haven for investors. Government bonds, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds have historically yielded small positive returns, although high-yield bonds are more sensitive to economic cycles [2][6]. - Current yield levels in the U.S. bond market have already priced in optimistic rate cut expectations, suggesting limited room for further declines in long-term yields [2][6]. Commodity Market - Commodities typically perform poorly in the immediate aftermath of a rate cut, influenced by economic conditions and supply-demand dynamics. However, precious metals, particularly gold, tend to shine in such environments, showcasing their value as a hedge [2][6]. - Gold has led global asset classes with a 24% increase year-to-date, and while a short-term pullback may occur post-rate cut, its long-term value remains strong due to declining real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties [2][6]. Currency Market - Historically, the dollar tends to weaken following the Fed's first rate cut, while non-dollar currencies like the yen, pound, and Swiss franc often strengthen. Emerging market currencies, including the renminbi, are also expected to appreciate in the current rate cut cycle [2][6]. Performance Analysis - Since early 2024, major asset classes have generally risen, with gold leading at a 24% positive return. Global equities have achieved a 17% return, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets [3][4]. - An analysis of asset performance over the past 30 years shows that gold and bonds typically gain, while stocks and commodities often decline, with emerging markets showing better resilience compared to developed markets [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 65.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 53.00 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's share price decline post-interim results is due to market concerns over its dividend policy, which the report considers to be an overreaction. Despite a 17% year-on-year decline in core earnings, the company increased its interim dividend by 1.6% and raised its payout ratio by 3.5 percentage points to 20.6% [1][2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of HKD 600 million, which is expected to bolster investor confidence and support the stock price amid low valuations [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in earnings, projecting a return to growth in 2025 and 2026, with expected dividend yields of 6% and 7% respectively, the highest among its peers in the gas sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 134,944 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,328 million by 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability after a dip in 2023 and 2024 [3][10]. - The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44% for the year, with a medium-term target of 50% over the next 3-4 years [1][2]. Operational Guidance - The company has set ambitious operational targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in its energy business and a retail gas volume growth exceeding 5% [6][8]. - The report projects that the gross margin for the retail gas segment will improve, maintaining around 11% from 2024 to 2026 [2][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the gas distribution sector, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 59.6 billion and a significant trading volume [5][9]. - The report notes that the company's stock has underperformed relative to the Hang Seng Index, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion in long-term liquidity into the financial market[2] - The central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%, aiming to guide down loan market rates and deposit rates[2] - PBOC's actions are intended to ensure market liquidity and reduce funding costs, supporting the real economy[2] Housing Market Support - The PBOC will lower existing mortgage rates to align with new mortgage rates, with an expected average reduction of around 0.5 percentage points[5] - The minimum down payment ratio for second homes has been reduced from 25% to 15%, aimed at stimulating demand in the housing market[5] - These measures are projected to benefit approximately 50 million households, reducing annual interest expenses by around CNY 150 billion[5] Capital Market Initiatives - New policy tools will be created to support the stock market, including liquidity swaps for securities, funds, and insurance companies[6] - Special re-loans will be introduced to guide banks in providing loans to listed companies and major shareholders for stock repurchases and increases[6] - These initiatives are expected to enhance the financing capabilities of non-bank financial institutions and boost market confidence[6] Economic Outlook - The PBOC's proactive monetary policy measures are expected to lower costs for enterprises and households, stabilize the housing and stock markets, and improve market expectations[6] - Further fiscal policies, including increased issuance of government bonds and higher deficit ratios, are anticipated to promote domestic demand and achieve balanced economic growth[6]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Neutral" [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's stock price has dropped significantly, making its valuation attractive. The unexpected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs, positively impacting profitability [1]. - The price of photovoltaic modules continues to hit new lows, which is beneficial for the return on new projects due to reduced investment costs [1]. - The report raises the earnings forecast for 2024-2026 by 2%/3%/4% and maintains a target price of HKD 1.02, reflecting a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price [1][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue (Million HKD): 2022: 2,315, 2023: 2,517, 2024E: 2,459, 2025E: 2,786, 2026E: 3,165 [2][6]. - Net Profit (Million HKD): 2022: 971, 2023: 993, 2024E: 838, 2025E: 1,024, 2026E: 1,211 [2][6]. - Earnings Per Share (HKD): 2022: 0.13, 2023: 0.12, 2024E: 0.10, 2025E: 0.12, 2026E: 0.15 [2][6]. - Dividend Yield (%): 2022: 17.6, 2023: 7.0, 2024E: 5.9, 2025E: 7.2, 2026E: 8.5 [2][6]. Key Business Metrics - New Installed Capacity (MW): 2024E: 700, 2025E: 1,000, 2026E: 1,200 [4]. - Average Tax-Inclusive Electricity Price (RMB/kWh): 2024E: 0.61, 2025E: 0.57, 2026E: 0.54 [4]. - Gross Margin (%): 2024E: 63.0, 2025E: 63.0, 2026E: 63.0 [4].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 全球宏观 全球流动性风向标系列（十四） 后续仍可能会修正降息路径—9 月美联储 FOMC 会议点评 2024 年 9 月 19 日，美联储 FOMC 会议将基准利率下调 50 个基点至 4.75-5.0% 区间，此举超出了市场以及我们此前的预期。利率声明显示了通胀进展取得信 心是开启降息的前提，但无疑就业和经济前景的不确定性是大幅降息 50 基点 的关键推动因素，对于劳动力市场意外放缓的担忧、以及对于实现美国经济软 着陆的信心不足，成为推动美联储大幅预防式降息的关键。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

024年9月17日 加速智能化落地 夯实高端化定位 分析师 · 陈庆 李柳晓 此次阿维塔入 股引望,和华 为合作进一步 加深, 有望在 智能化、品牌 价值提升、产 品营销上获华 为助力。 随着华为智能 汽车BU新公司 业务规模不断 扩大,阿维塔 作为早期投资 者, 有望享受 随之而来的投 资收益。 智能化是新能 源车下半程的 重要看点,也 是新能源车能 否突围20万以 上价格带的重 要因素。 阿维塔作为长 安集团向上战 略的唯一载体, 其高端化定位 必然对智能化 提出更高要求。 da der des 交银国际研究 行业剖析 2024 年 9 月 17 日 行业评级 领先 汽车行业剖析 阿维塔入股引望，加速智能化落地，夯实高端化定位 智能化是新能源车下半程的重要看点，也是新能源车能否突围 20 万元以上价 格带的重要因素。阿维塔作为长安集团向上战略的唯一载体，其高端化的定 位必然对智能化提出更高要求。此次阿维塔入股引望，和华为的合作进一步 加深，有望在智能化、品牌价值提升、产品营销上获得华为助力。随着华为 智能汽车 BU 新公司业务规模的不断扩大，阿维塔作为早期投资者，有望享受 到随之而来的投资收益。 政策顺风 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观策略 | | | | | | | AI全球选股策略 | | | | | 投资组合月度跟踪（2024年8月） | | | | | | | | | | | | 全球 股票池 AI 选股法 表现 | 正收益 | | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company New World Development (17 HK) [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a core operating profit of HKD 6.5 billion to HKD 6.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 18% to 23% due to a lack of revenue recognition from major projects completed in the previous fiscal year [2][5]. - A significant non-cash impairment loss is anticipated, estimated between HKD 8.5 billion to HKD 9.5 billion, primarily related to the revaluation of investment and development properties [2][5]. - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 10.18, reflecting an 80% discount to the forecasted net asset value, with a potential upside of 49% from the current price of HKD 6.83 [2][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the projected revenue is HKD 55.93 billion, a decrease of 41.3% compared to the previous year [5][7]. - The core profit is expected to drop to HKD 1.17 billion, a decline of 80.8% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 19 billion to HKD 20 billion for the fiscal year 2024 [2][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at HKD 0.47, with a significant downward adjustment of 63.7% from previous forecasts [5][7]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 43.65% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17.19 billion [4][5]. - The stock's 52-week high was HKD 15.65, while the low was HKD 6.83 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 96.10, indicating a potential upside of 29.1% from the current closing price of HKD 74.45 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in FY2024, with revenue projected to increase by 8.9% year-on-year to approximately HKD 77.5 billion, driven by a low base from the previous year and recovery across various business lines [1]. - Rental income is anticipated to reach HKD 20 billion, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in the first half of FY2024, particularly benefiting from a 3.5% growth in the retail segment [1]. - The report has revised down revenue and profit forecasts for FY2024/25/26, reflecting a decline in development profit margins and increased interest costs due to a high-interest environment [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million HKD): - FY2022: 77,747 - FY2023: 71,195 - FY2024E: 77,541 - FY2025E: 84,049 - FY2026E: 88,737 - Core Profit (in million HKD): - FY2022: 28,729 - FY2023: 23,885 - FY2024E: 22,303 - FY2025E: 24,414 - FY2026E: 26,248 - The report indicates a projected core profit decline of approximately 7% year-on-year to HKD 22.3 billion for FY2024 [4][6]. Market Context - The report highlights that recent adjustments in stamp duty and mortgage policies will significantly reduce the acquisition costs for small to medium-sized units, positioning the company favorably in the mid-market segment [1]. - The recovery in rental income and moderate revival in tourism are expected to enhance consumer spending and tenant capacity in the company's mid to high-end shopping malls [1].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 9 月 16 日 中国宏观 稳增长仍需巩固加力—中国 8 月经济数据点评 中国 8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 4.5%，预期 4.8%，上月为 5.1%；环比 0.32%，前值 0.35%。8 月社零同比 2.1%，预期 2.5%，上月为 2.7%；环比0.01%，前值 0.27%。1-8 月固定资产投资同比 3.4%，预期 3.5%，前值 3.6%。1- 8 月，房地产开发投资同比-10.2%。 7、8 月经济数据放缓可能影响 3 季度 GDP 增长斜率，为完成全年经济工作目 标，稳增长仍需巩固加力。从供给端来看，8 月生产放缓主要受到了自然灾 害、高温天气等影响，在高技术产业出口景气度以及国家大规模设备更新的支 撑下，预计生产端依然能维持相对高增速。从投资端来看，制造业投资虽有放 缓，但部分高技术产业在政策和出口的支撑下仍维持较快增速，而基建投资增 速亦有望随着特别国债和专项债的发行而逐渐回升。 从需求端来看，超长期特别国债支持地方实施消费品以旧换新等措施仍在显效 发力，而以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求的措施仍有发力空间，促进内需恢复 基础巩固。与此同时，随着海外逐渐转 ...