| --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 26 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | | | 政治局释放强劲增长信号，港股有望趁势而上 2024 年 9 月 26 日，中共中央总书记习近平主持召开中央政治局会议，分析研 究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。政治局会议提出要抓住重点、主动作 为，有效落实存量政策，加力推出增量政策，进一步提高政策措施的针对性、 有效性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。 继 7 月政治局会议指出要以提振消费为重点扩大需求，经济政策的著力点要更 多转向惠民生、促消费。本次会议更是深化提出了要加力推出增量政策。3 季 度，经济活动出现一些动态变化，供大于需格局强化影响经济增长斜率，因而 完成全年经济目标的重点则需更进一步提振内需。稳经济需要促进内需，提振 消费，关键还是需要提高居民收入及预期。 加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度，降低成本，增加收入。 货币政策降本。"924"新政货币政策力度空前，集中推出降准、降息、 ...

市场策略 美联储首次降息后的 大类资产影响及配置 蔡瑞,CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852)37661808 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 2024年9月25日 美联储首次降息后，大类资产如何配置？ 自1990年以来的历次降息周期中，在美联储首次降息后，黄金、债券胜率相对较高，而股票、大宗商品表现 不一，美元多呈下降趋势，非美货币普遍上涨。 股票：首次降息后，全球股市短期总体呈负面反馈，但个别年份波动较大，主要取决于基本面状况。虽然平 均表现来看，全球股指在首次降息后平均略有跌幅，但新兴市场股指表现好于发达市场。2024年初至今，发 达市场涨幅仍高于新兴市场涨幅，意味着降息后新兴市场可能存在更大上涨空间。具体到美股和港股： • 美股：短期上涨前景仍存，但空间可能有限。在历次降息前后，短期内美股市场反应可能不稳定，甚至为 负，但随着时间推移，股市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 65.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 53.00 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's share price decline post-interim results is due to market concerns over its dividend policy, which the report considers to be an overreaction. Despite a 17% year-on-year decline in core earnings, the company increased its interim dividend by 1.6% and raised its payout ratio by 3.5 percentage points to 20.6% [1][2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of HKD 600 million, which is expected to bolster investor confidence and support the stock price amid low valuations [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in earnings, projecting a return to growth in 2025 and 2026, with expected dividend yields of 6% and 7% respectively, the highest among its peers in the gas sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 134,944 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,328 million by 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability after a dip in 2023 and 2024 [3][10]. - The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44% for the year, with a medium-term target of 50% over the next 3-4 years [1][2]. Operational Guidance - The company has set ambitious operational targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in its energy business and a retail gas volume growth exceeding 5% [6][8]. - The report projects that the gross margin for the retail gas segment will improve, maintaining around 11% from 2024 to 2026 [2][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the gas distribution sector, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 59.6 billion and a significant trading volume [5][9]. - The report notes that the company's stock has underperformed relative to the Hang Seng Index, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 9 月 24 日 中国宏观 央行推出系列增量举措支持巩固内需，提振资本市场 2024 年 9 月 24 日，中国央行加大货币政策调控强度，宣布降准、降息、降低 存量房贷利率和统一房贷最低首付比例，以及创设新货币工具支持股票市场发 展等多项增量政策举措。上周美联储大幅降息 50 基点开启降息周期后，一定 程度上为中国货币操作创造了更灵活的空间。中国央行动作迅速，本周伊始便 重启 14 天逆回购操作，向银行体系注入流动性，并将操作利率下调 10 个基点 至 1.85%，为此次一系列增量政策措施进行了预热。 降息、降准提供充裕流动性，切实压降资金成本 中国央行宣布降低存款准备金率和政策利率，近期将下调存款准备金率 0.5 个 百分点，向金融市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元人民币，年底前可能还会择机 再降准 0.25-0.5 个百分点；将降低中央银行政策利率，7 天逆回购操作利率下 调 0.2 个百分点，从目前的 1.7%降为 1.5%，引导贷款市场报价利率和存款利率 同步下行，保持商业银行净息差稳定。 定调积极，充分保证市场流动性。相较于此前"灵活有效"的货币政策 立场，潘功胜 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" from "Neutral" [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's stock price has dropped significantly, making its valuation attractive. The unexpected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs, positively impacting profitability [1]. - The price of photovoltaic modules continues to hit new lows, which is beneficial for the return on new projects due to reduced investment costs [1]. - The report raises the earnings forecast for 2024-2026 by 2%/3%/4% and maintains a target price of HKD 1.02, reflecting a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price [1][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue (Million HKD): 2022: 2,315, 2023: 2,517, 2024E: 2,459, 2025E: 2,786, 2026E: 3,165 [2][6]. - Net Profit (Million HKD): 2022: 971, 2023: 993, 2024E: 838, 2025E: 1,024, 2026E: 1,211 [2][6]. - Earnings Per Share (HKD): 2022: 0.13, 2023: 0.12, 2024E: 0.10, 2025E: 0.12, 2026E: 0.15 [2][6]. - Dividend Yield (%): 2022: 17.6, 2023: 7.0, 2024E: 5.9, 2025E: 7.2, 2026E: 8.5 [2][6]. Key Business Metrics - New Installed Capacity (MW): 2024E: 700, 2025E: 1,000, 2026E: 1,200 [4]. - Average Tax-Inclusive Electricity Price (RMB/kWh): 2024E: 0.61, 2025E: 0.57, 2026E: 0.54 [4]. - Gross Margin (%): 2024E: 63.0, 2025E: 63.0, 2026E: 63.0 [4].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 全球宏观 全球流动性风向标系列（十四） 后续仍可能会修正降息路径—9 月美联储 FOMC 会议点评 2024 年 9 月 19 日，美联储 FOMC 会议将基准利率下调 50 个基点至 4.75-5.0% 区间，此举超出了市场以及我们此前的预期。利率声明显示了通胀进展取得信 心是开启降息的前提，但无疑就业和经济前景的不确定性是大幅降息 50 基点 的关键推动因素，对于劳动力市场意外放缓的担忧、以及对于实现美国经济软 着陆的信心不足，成为推动美联储大幅预防式降息的关键。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

024年9月17日 加速智能化落地 夯实高端化定位 分析师 · 陈庆 李柳晓 此次阿维塔入 股引望,和华 为合作进一步 加深, 有望在 智能化、品牌 价值提升、产 品营销上获华 为助力。 随着华为智能 汽车BU新公司 业务规模不断 扩大,阿维塔 作为早期投资 者, 有望享受 随之而来的投 资收益。 智能化是新能 源车下半程的 重要看点,也 是新能源车能 否突围20万以 上价格带的重 要因素。 阿维塔作为长 安集团向上战 略的唯一载体, 其高端化定位 必然对智能化 提出更高要求。 da der des 交银国际研究 行业剖析 2024 年 9 月 17 日 行业评级 领先 汽车行业剖析 阿维塔入股引望，加速智能化落地，夯实高端化定位 智能化是新能源车下半程的重要看点，也是新能源车能否突围 20 万元以上价 格带的重要因素。阿维塔作为长安集团向上战略的唯一载体，其高端化的定 位必然对智能化提出更高要求。此次阿维塔入股引望，和华为的合作进一步 加深，有望在智能化、品牌价值提升、产品营销上获得华为助力。随着华为 智能汽车 BU 新公司业务规模的不断扩大，阿维塔作为早期投资者，有望享受 到随之而来的投资收益。 政策顺风 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观策略 | | | | | | | AI全球选股策略 | | | | | 投资组合月度跟踪（2024年8月） | | | | | | | | | | | | 全球 股票池 AI 选股法 表现 | 正收益 | | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company New World Development (17 HK) [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a core operating profit of HKD 6.5 billion to HKD 6.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 18% to 23% due to a lack of revenue recognition from major projects completed in the previous fiscal year [2][5]. - A significant non-cash impairment loss is anticipated, estimated between HKD 8.5 billion to HKD 9.5 billion, primarily related to the revaluation of investment and development properties [2][5]. - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 10.18, reflecting an 80% discount to the forecasted net asset value, with a potential upside of 49% from the current price of HKD 6.83 [2][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, the projected revenue is HKD 55.93 billion, a decrease of 41.3% compared to the previous year [5][7]. - The core profit is expected to drop to HKD 1.17 billion, a decline of 80.8% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 19 billion to HKD 20 billion for the fiscal year 2024 [2][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at HKD 0.47, with a significant downward adjustment of 63.7% from previous forecasts [5][7]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 43.65% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17.19 billion [4][5]. - The stock's 52-week high was HKD 15.65, while the low was HKD 6.83 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 96.10, indicating a potential upside of 29.1% from the current closing price of HKD 74.45 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in FY2024, with revenue projected to increase by 8.9% year-on-year to approximately HKD 77.5 billion, driven by a low base from the previous year and recovery across various business lines [1]. - Rental income is anticipated to reach HKD 20 billion, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in the first half of FY2024, particularly benefiting from a 3.5% growth in the retail segment [1]. - The report has revised down revenue and profit forecasts for FY2024/25/26, reflecting a decline in development profit margins and increased interest costs due to a high-interest environment [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million HKD): - FY2022: 77,747 - FY2023: 71,195 - FY2024E: 77,541 - FY2025E: 84,049 - FY2026E: 88,737 - Core Profit (in million HKD): - FY2022: 28,729 - FY2023: 23,885 - FY2024E: 22,303 - FY2025E: 24,414 - FY2026E: 26,248 - The report indicates a projected core profit decline of approximately 7% year-on-year to HKD 22.3 billion for FY2024 [4][6]. Market Context - The report highlights that recent adjustments in stamp duty and mortgage policies will significantly reduce the acquisition costs for small to medium-sized units, positioning the company favorably in the mid-market segment [1]. - The recovery in rental income and moderate revival in tourism are expected to enhance consumer spending and tenant capacity in the company's mid to high-end shopping malls [1].