Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the anticipated success of the new model P7+, which is expected to continue the positive sales momentum established by the M03 model. The pricing strategy for P7+ is expected to be aggressive, with a starting price potentially below 200,000 RMB, and possibly as low as 180,000 RMB with promotional offers [1][2]. - The report projects a significant increase in sales forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising the estimates by 35% and 27% respectively, reflecting the strong performance of M03 and the expected success of P7+ [2][6]. - The financial outlook shows a narrowing of losses due to the scale effect from increased sales and cost control measures, with revenue expected to grow significantly over the next few years [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 39,627 million RMB (up 29.2% YoY) - 2025E: 61,231 million RMB (up 54.5% YoY) - 2026E: 67,665 million RMB (up 10.5% YoY) [3][9]. - Net profit forecasts indicate continued losses, but with a decreasing trend: - 2024E: (4,848) million RMB - 2025E: (2,360) million RMB - 2026E: (1,290) million RMB [3][9]. - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of the company's financial metrics, including gross profit and margins, indicating improvements in operational efficiency [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 513.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 438.80 [1][3][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that mobile gaming continues to show robust growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1]. - Domestic mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, accelerating from 10% growth in the first half of the year [2]. - The report anticipates that Tencent will maintain a trend of profit growth exceeding revenue growth due to ongoing cost control and operational leverage [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 554,552 - 2023: 609,015 - 2024E: 657,575 - 2025E: 721,654 - 2026E: 768,333 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 9.8% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 9.7% - 2026E: 6.5% [3][19]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 115,649 - 2023: 157,688 - 2024E: 207,933 - 2025E: 229,754 - 2026E: 257,385 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 37.6% - 2024E: 34.4% - 2025E: 12.1% - 2026E: 13.2% [3][19]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2022: 11.86 - 2023: 16.33 - 2024E: 21.94 - 2025E: 24.60 - 2026E: 27.84 [3][19]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by new game contributions [2]. - Overseas mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2024, supported by Supercell's "Brawl Stars" [2]. - Advertising revenue growth is expected to be 16% year-on-year in Q3 2024, slightly down from previous expectations due to budget adjustments by advertisers [2]. Valuation and Outlook - The report maintains net profit expectations for 2024/25 and adjusts the valuation to 20 times the earnings for 2025, raising the target price to HKD 513.00 from HKD 486.00 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, JD Logistics (2618 HK), with a target price raised from HKD 11.30 to HKD 16.30, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year for Q3 2024, reaching RMB 44.2 billion, which aligns with previous expectations. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 10.9 billion, a 29% increase year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 51% [1][6]. - The improved profit margins are attributed to operational efficiency enhancements, including better space utilization, cost control in transportation, and optimized product mix and pricing strategies [1][6]. - The anticipated collaboration with Taobao for the 2024 Double Eleven event is expected to boost business volume growth, particularly in supply chain and logistics services [2][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 137.4 billion, with projections of RMB 166.6 billion for 2023 and RMB 180.6 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 21.3% and 8.4% respectively [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 2.8 billion, increasing to RMB 6.1 billion in 2024, with a corresponding net profit margin of 3.4% [5][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 88.9 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 37.22% [4][11].

Inflation Overview - The U.S. CPI for September 2024 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for six consecutive months but exceeding the expected 2.3%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, higher than the anticipated 0.1%[1] - Core CPI rebounded to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since June, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's 3.2%[1] Price Contributions - Food prices unexpectedly rose by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing nearly 25% to the nominal inflation increase[1] - Gasoline prices fell significantly by 4.1% month-on-month, reflecting a broader decline in energy prices[1] - Used car prices rebounded, positively impacting core goods, while clothing prices also saw a substantial month-on-month increase[1] Housing and Core Inflation - Housing inflation showed a stable decline, with rent and owner's equivalent rent both decreasing to 0.3% month-on-month[2] - Supercore inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of acceleration[2] - The market is pricing in an 86.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, up from 77.6% prior to the data release[2] Economic Outlook - Despite nominal and core inflation exceeding market expectations, the overall trend remains consistent with a slowing inflation narrative[2] - The labor market's resilience, as indicated by September's employment data, has led to a revision of expectations for a larger rate cut in November[2] - Future economic data, including Q3 GDP, will be crucial in determining the trajectory of interest rates[2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" [2] Core Insights - The concept of "software-defined" has been included in the "14th Five-Year Plan," marking a new technological revolution and emphasizing the importance of software as the foundation of new-generation information technology, including cloud computing and AI [2][4] - The cloud computing market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a market size exceeding 600 billion RMB in 2023 and projected to surpass 2 trillion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% [7][10] - The software industry's overall revenue growth has declined since 2022, indicating a strategic shift towards high-quality and sustainable development, with a focus on AI investments [2][22] Summary by Sections Software as a Foundation - Software is identified as the core of new-generation information technology, crucial for cloud computing and AI technologies [4][5] - The software industry chain includes upstream computing power, midstream basic software, application software, industrial software, and downstream industry applications [5][10] Cloud Computing Market - The cloud computing market structure in China is primarily dominated by IaaS, while PaaS and SaaS are expected to drive future growth [10][12] - The public cloud market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with the public cloud market size exceeding 4.5 trillion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% [7][10] Investment Opportunities - Future opportunities in China's cloud computing sector lie in GPU cloud and the enhancement of PaaS/SaaS software industry chain investments [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of AI development in reshaping the competitive landscape of the software industry, with companies leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2][22] Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the current valuation levels of China's software industry are at historical lows, with a positive correlation between gross margin and valuation levels [2][22] - Companies with gross margins above 70% are identified as having strong investment and valuation support, particularly in sectors like domestic substitution and AI investment [2][22] Industry Trends - The report notes a trend of traditional enterprises moving to cloud computing, which is expected to become a major growth driver for the cloud computing market [22][23] - The integration of AI into software development is anticipated to enhance productivity and create new competitive dynamics within the industry [2][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New World Development (17 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.44, indicating a potential upside of 21.9% from the current closing price of HKD 9.39 [1][7]. Core Insights - New World Development reported a core profit decline of 47.5% year-on-year to HKD 1.377 billion, primarily due to a decrease in the number of deliverable projects in Hong Kong. The company's revenue for FY2024 fell by 34% to HKD 35.782 billion [2][6]. - Rental income showed resilience, with K11 and overall rental income increasing by 11.9% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively. The occupancy rates for K11 MUSEA and K11 Art Mall remained high at 97% and 99% [2][6]. - The company plans to reduce leverage, targeting the disposal of HKD 13 billion in non-core assets by FY2025, which is expected to help save interest costs and restore profitability [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY2024, New World Development's revenue is projected at HKD 35.782 billion, down from HKD 54.566 billion in FY2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.4% [5][8]. - Core profit is expected to be HKD 1.377 billion for FY2024, down from HKD 2.620 billion in FY2023, marking a 47.5% decrease [5][8]. - The company plans to pay a total dividend of HKD 0.2 per share for FY2024, significantly lower than HKD 0.76 per share in FY2023 [6][8]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 22.52%, with a 52-week high of HKD 14.23 and a low of HKD 6.28 [4][6]. - The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 23.631 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 49.55 million shares [4][6]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to recover in FY2025 with a projected increase of 20.2% to HKD 42.999 billion, followed by a slight decline in subsequent years [5][8]. - Core earnings per share are forecasted to rise gradually from HKD 0.55 in FY2024 to HKD 0.79 by FY2027 [5][8]. Conclusion - The report suggests that despite the current challenges, the company's strong rental performance and strategic asset disposals could provide a foundation for recovery and growth in the coming years [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) with a target price of **HKD 80.00**, implying a potential upside of **25.2%** [2][4] Core Views - New Oriental continues to maintain its leading position in international education, with steady expansion in its education business [2] - The company's education business is expected to achieve a **24% CAGR** in revenue from FY2024 to FY2027, driven by ongoing margin optimization [2] - The offline teaching center expansion is progressing well, with a **6% QoQ increase** in Q1 FY2025, adding **60+ new centers**, primarily in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities [2][5] - The education business is valued at **20x P/E** for the 12 months ending February 2026, excluding contributions from Dongfang Zhenxuan [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts Q1 FY2025 Preview - Total revenue is expected to grow **33% YoY** to **USD 1.46 billion**, in line with the company's guidance of **31-34%** [3] - Non-Dongfang Zhenxuan revenue is projected to increase **33% YoY** to **USD 1.247 billion** [3] - Adjusted operating profit is estimated at **USD 320 million**, with an operating margin of **21.9%**, driven by a **2 percentage point improvement** in non-Dongfang Zhenxuan business margins [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **USD 259 million**, with a net margin of **17.7%** [3] Segment Performance - Overseas test preparation revenue is expected to grow **21% YoY**, high school revenue **27%**, university/adult education **26%**, and new businesses **52%** [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve to **58%**, up **2.5 percentage points** from the previous forecast [4] Long-Term Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from **USD 4.314 billion** in FY2024 to **USD 7.646 billion** in FY2027, with a **24% CAGR** [6] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to increase from **USD 473 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.196 billion** in FY2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise from **USD 381 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.043 billion** in FY2027 [6] Industry and Peer Comparison - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with **Buy** ratings for peers like TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) [8] - New Oriental's valuation and growth prospects are highlighted as favorable compared to its peers in the education sector [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 87.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 69.15 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of two new indications for the company's products, significantly expanding its commercial portfolio into non-oncology areas. The approval of the drug 开坦尼 for first-line treatment of gastric cancer is expected to greatly increase its potential patient population, with an estimated peak sales forecast adjustment to RMB 5.2 billion. Additionally, the approval of AK102 for primary hypercholesterolemia and mixed dyslipidemia is noted as a strong competitive advantage in the market [1][2]. - Recent clinical data releases from major conferences such as ESMO and EADV have shown promising results for the company's products, particularly for IL-17 古莫奇单抗 in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and for the drug 依沃西 in various solid tumors, which may enhance the clinical application and extend the product lifecycle [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been increased by 6-10% due to the recent approvals and positive clinical developments. The new revenue estimates are RMB 2,849 million for 2024, RMB 4,786 million for 2025, and RMB 6,465 million for 2026, reflecting significant growth compared to previous forecasts [4][5]. - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 786 million in 2025 and RMB 1,880 million in 2026, indicating a recovery from losses in 2024 [4][5]. - The DCF valuation model suggests a fair value of HKD 87.0 per share, supported by anticipated catalysts such as the outcomes of insurance negotiations and the approval of new indications [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.56, indicating a potential upside of 22.9% from the current price of HKD 3.71 [4]. Core Views - The report highlights the restructuring of hydropower assets to an A-share listing platform, which is expected to enhance valuation. China Power plans to sell its hydropower assets (5.9 GW, approximately 60% stake) to its parent company, Guodian Investment, with the transaction expected to be detailed around October 18 [1][2]. - Management has outlined a preliminary plan to further integrate hydropower assets within three years, aiming to consolidate approximately 20 GW of remaining hydropower assets into the A-share platform [1]. - The transaction is viewed as a strategic move to leverage the higher valuations of hydropower assets in the A-share market, positioning China Power as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform focusing on hydropower, wind, solar, and high-quality coal power [1][2]. Summary by Sections Hydropower Projects Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of China Power's hydropower projects, listing capacities and valuations in millions of RMB. The total capacity of the listed projects is 5,921 MW, with individual project valuations ranging from 59.9 million to 64.9 million RMB [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report outlines the valuation benchmarks for different segments of China Power's business, indicating a valuation of 0.75x the 2025 estimated price-to-book ratio for the hydropower segment. This is significantly lower than the approximately 3x price-to-book ratio of comparable companies [3]. - The report suggests that the hydropower segment's valuation could potentially increase to 1.5x or higher, which would enhance the overall valuation by approximately HKD 0.4-0.5 per share [1][3].

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 26 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | | | 政治局释放强劲增长信号，港股有望趁势而上 2024 年 9 月 26 日，中共中央总书记习近平主持召开中央政治局会议，分析研 究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。政治局会议提出要抓住重点、主动作 为，有效落实存量政策，加力推出增量政策，进一步提高政策措施的针对性、 有效性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。 继 7 月政治局会议指出要以提振消费为重点扩大需求，经济政策的著力点要更 多转向惠民生、促消费。本次会议更是深化提出了要加力推出增量政策。3 季 度，经济活动出现一些动态变化，供大于需格局强化影响经济增长斜率，因而 完成全年经济目标的重点则需更进一步提振内需。稳经济需要促进内需，提振 消费，关键还是需要提高居民收入及预期。 加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度，降低成本，增加收入。 货币政策降本。"924"新政货币政策力度空前，集中推出降准、降息、 ...