交银国际研究 行业更新 输入文字 行业评级 领先 2024 年 10 月 15 日 汽车行业 9 月新能源车渗透率 53.3%；以旧换新+新车型发布，看好"银十"表现 9 月乘用车零售销量环比增长 10.6%，自主品牌市场份额进一步提升。随 着政策进一步发力以及地方以旧换新政策陆续出台，整体市场环比继续回 升，9 月全国乘用车市场零售 210.9 万辆（同/环比+4.5%/+10.6%）；1-9 月 累计零售 1557.4 万辆（同比+2.2%）。自主品牌份额继续提升，合资车份 额则下滑。9 月自主品牌零售 134 万辆，同/环比+25%/+11%，9 月自主品 牌全国零售份额同比增加 10.1 个百分点至 63.5%； 1-9 月自主品牌累计份 额 59%，相对去年同期增加 8.1 个百分点。9 月主流合资品牌零售 53 万辆 （ 同 / 环 比 -22%/+10% ） ， 其 中 德 系 / 日 系 / 美 系 零 售 份 额 为 16.5%/12.6%/5.7%（同比-3.6/-4.0/-1.7 个百分点）。 9 月新能源汽车零售渗透率 53.3%，连续第三个月突破 50%。9 月新能源车 零售销量录得 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 50.60 港元 77.36↑ +52.9% 汽车 2024 年 10 月 14 日 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) P7+或将接棒继续降维打击，上调销量预测和目标价，维持买入 M03 超预期后，P7+或将接棒继续降维打击。小鹏 P7+ 的全球首次亮相发 布会上，新车预售价将会在 10 月 14 日巴黎车展上公布。继 M03 的成功 后，我们认为 P7+的定价依然会采取较为积极的策略，将接棒继续降维打 击。我们认为 P7+主要以下几方面亮点: 1） 大空间： P7+ 的长宽高分别为 5056/1937/1512mm，轴距 3000mm，达到 C 级车的尺寸。何小鹏也用"河 马"，"空间怪物" 等来形容 P7+ 的空间。P7+也是今年除智界 R7（价格较 贵）外，少数以空间当成重要亮点的纯电轿车。2） 舒适性： 全车标配座 椅加热、通风、按摩，后排座椅标配 10°电动调节，全系都是 Nappa 座椅 搭配超纤绒顶棚，全系标配的还有三款香氛以及 20 个扬声器。3）首发 AI 鹰眼视觉智驾方案：小鹏 P7+ 或全系标配 AI 鹰眼视觉智驾方案，新车 的智驾软件 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | | | 港元 438.80 | 港元 513.00↑ | +16.9% | | | 腾讯控股 | (700 HK) | | | | | | | | 手游维持稳健增长，维持利润增速快于收入增速预期 | | 本土/海外手游流水维持快速增长。1）本土：2024年3季度流水同比增29% （Sensor Tower/七麦），对比 2 季度 32%，仍主要受益于新游《地下城与 勇士：起源》（《MDnF》）增量贡献。2）海外：3 季度流水同比增 27% （对比 1/2 季度 33%/47%），仍受 Supercell《荒野乱斗》驱动，单月流水 维持在 6-8 亿元（人民币， ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|---------------|----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | | | 港元 13.42 | 港元 16.30↑ | +21.5% | | | 京东物流 | (2618 HK) | | | | | 3 | | | 季度预览：收入符合预期，利润有望再超市场预期 | | 2024 年 3 季度预览：预计 3 季度收入同比增 6%至 442 亿元（人民币，下 同），符合此前我们和市场的预期，同比增速对比 2 季度的 8%，趋势与 社零保持一致。预计调整后净利润为 10.9 亿元，同比增 29%，较我们此前 预期上调 15%，对比市场预期的 7.2 亿元高 51%。预计调整后净利润率为 2.5%，同比提升 50 个 ...

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | 全球宏观 | 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | | 通胀虽超预期，但仍支持小幅降息 —美国 9 | 月 CPI 点评 | 美国 2024 年 9 月 CPI 同比增 2.4%，连续 6 个月走低，但高于预期 2.3%，上月 为 2.5%；9 月 CPI 环比增 0.2%，高于预期 0.1%，上月为 0.2%；9 月核心 CPI 同 比反弹至 3.3%，为 6 月以来新高，并高于预期以及上月 3.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，同样高于预期的 0.2%，上月同为 0.3%。 食品价格上涨，能源价格延续回落。食品价格本月意外上升，环比涨 0.4%，贡献了本月名义通胀近四分之一的涨幅。汽油价格在 9 月大幅回 落，也是此前衰退叙事的滞后反映，环比创下近 4.1%的跌幅，推动整体 能源价格回落。但随着中东地缘局势发展，以及美国衰退担忧降温，叠加 中国推出政策刺激后，国际油价已经显 ...

行业研究 互联网行业 2024年9月30日 系列报告 E THE LE 型率是估值关键 分析师 | 谷馨瑜 别 梦 琪 赵 丽 蔡 涵 "软件定义"写进"- 四五规划",是新一轮 科技革命的新特征和新 标志 - 未来,我国云计算行业 的机会在于GPU云、 PaaS/SaaS软件产业链 投入的提升 - 行业理性竞争，AI发展 或为新变局 毛利率--行业估值 的关键 企业毛利率与估值 水平呈正相关性， 毛利率可最快判断 公司商业模式及企 业健康度，是软件 公司核心指标。 交银国际研究 行业剖析 互联网行业 行业评级 领先 2024 年 9 月 30 日 软件定义一切（上）：AI+推动变局；毛利率是估值关键 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New World Development (17 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.44, indicating a potential upside of 21.9% from the current closing price of HKD 9.39 [1][7]. Core Insights - New World Development reported a core profit decline of 47.5% year-on-year to HKD 1.377 billion, primarily due to a decrease in the number of deliverable projects in Hong Kong. The company's revenue for FY2024 fell by 34% to HKD 35.782 billion [2][6]. - Rental income showed resilience, with K11 and overall rental income increasing by 11.9% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively. The occupancy rates for K11 MUSEA and K11 Art Mall remained high at 97% and 99% [2][6]. - The company plans to reduce leverage, targeting the disposal of HKD 13 billion in non-core assets by FY2025, which is expected to help save interest costs and restore profitability [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY2024, New World Development's revenue is projected at HKD 35.782 billion, down from HKD 54.566 billion in FY2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 34.4% [5][8]. - Core profit is expected to be HKD 1.377 billion for FY2024, down from HKD 2.620 billion in FY2023, marking a 47.5% decrease [5][8]. - The company plans to pay a total dividend of HKD 0.2 per share for FY2024, significantly lower than HKD 0.76 per share in FY2023 [6][8]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 22.52%, with a 52-week high of HKD 14.23 and a low of HKD 6.28 [4][6]. - The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 23.631 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 49.55 million shares [4][6]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to recover in FY2025 with a projected increase of 20.2% to HKD 42.999 billion, followed by a slight decline in subsequent years [5][8]. - Core earnings per share are forecasted to rise gradually from HKD 0.55 in FY2024 to HKD 0.79 by FY2027 [5][8]. Conclusion - The report suggests that despite the current challenges, the company's strong rental performance and strategic asset disposals could provide a foundation for recovery and growth in the coming years [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) with a target price of **HKD 80.00**, implying a potential upside of **25.2%** [2][4] Core Views - New Oriental continues to maintain its leading position in international education, with steady expansion in its education business [2] - The company's education business is expected to achieve a **24% CAGR** in revenue from FY2024 to FY2027, driven by ongoing margin optimization [2] - The offline teaching center expansion is progressing well, with a **6% QoQ increase** in Q1 FY2025, adding **60+ new centers**, primarily in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities [2][5] - The education business is valued at **20x P/E** for the 12 months ending February 2026, excluding contributions from Dongfang Zhenxuan [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts Q1 FY2025 Preview - Total revenue is expected to grow **33% YoY** to **USD 1.46 billion**, in line with the company's guidance of **31-34%** [3] - Non-Dongfang Zhenxuan revenue is projected to increase **33% YoY** to **USD 1.247 billion** [3] - Adjusted operating profit is estimated at **USD 320 million**, with an operating margin of **21.9%**, driven by a **2 percentage point improvement** in non-Dongfang Zhenxuan business margins [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **USD 259 million**, with a net margin of **17.7%** [3] Segment Performance - Overseas test preparation revenue is expected to grow **21% YoY**, high school revenue **27%**, university/adult education **26%**, and new businesses **52%** [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve to **58%**, up **2.5 percentage points** from the previous forecast [4] Long-Term Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from **USD 4.314 billion** in FY2024 to **USD 7.646 billion** in FY2027, with a **24% CAGR** [6] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to increase from **USD 473 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.196 billion** in FY2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise from **USD 381 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.043 billion** in FY2027 [6] Industry and Peer Comparison - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with **Buy** ratings for peers like TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) [8] - New Oriental's valuation and growth prospects are highlighted as favorable compared to its peers in the education sector [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 87.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 69.15 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of two new indications for the company's products, significantly expanding its commercial portfolio into non-oncology areas. The approval of the drug 开坦尼 for first-line treatment of gastric cancer is expected to greatly increase its potential patient population, with an estimated peak sales forecast adjustment to RMB 5.2 billion. Additionally, the approval of AK102 for primary hypercholesterolemia and mixed dyslipidemia is noted as a strong competitive advantage in the market [1][2]. - Recent clinical data releases from major conferences such as ESMO and EADV have shown promising results for the company's products, particularly for IL-17 古莫奇单抗 in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and for the drug 依沃西 in various solid tumors, which may enhance the clinical application and extend the product lifecycle [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been increased by 6-10% due to the recent approvals and positive clinical developments. The new revenue estimates are RMB 2,849 million for 2024, RMB 4,786 million for 2025, and RMB 6,465 million for 2026, reflecting significant growth compared to previous forecasts [4][5]. - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 786 million in 2025 and RMB 1,880 million in 2026, indicating a recovery from losses in 2024 [4][5]. - The DCF valuation model suggests a fair value of HKD 87.0 per share, supported by anticipated catalysts such as the outcomes of insurance negotiations and the approval of new indications [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.56, indicating a potential upside of 22.9% from the current price of HKD 3.71 [4]. Core Views - The report highlights the restructuring of hydropower assets to an A-share listing platform, which is expected to enhance valuation. China Power plans to sell its hydropower assets (5.9 GW, approximately 60% stake) to its parent company, Guodian Investment, with the transaction expected to be detailed around October 18 [1][2]. - Management has outlined a preliminary plan to further integrate hydropower assets within three years, aiming to consolidate approximately 20 GW of remaining hydropower assets into the A-share platform [1]. - The transaction is viewed as a strategic move to leverage the higher valuations of hydropower assets in the A-share market, positioning China Power as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform focusing on hydropower, wind, solar, and high-quality coal power [1][2]. Summary by Sections Hydropower Projects Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of China Power's hydropower projects, listing capacities and valuations in millions of RMB. The total capacity of the listed projects is 5,921 MW, with individual project valuations ranging from 59.9 million to 64.9 million RMB [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report outlines the valuation benchmarks for different segments of China Power's business, indicating a valuation of 0.75x the 2025 estimated price-to-book ratio for the hydropower segment. This is significantly lower than the approximately 3x price-to-book ratio of comparable companies [3]. - The report suggests that the hydropower segment's valuation could potentially increase to 1.5x or higher, which would enhance the overall valuation by approximately HKD 0.4-0.5 per share [1][3].