交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 9 月 16 日 中国宏观 稳增长仍需巩固加力—中国 8 月经济数据点评 中国 8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 4.5%，预期 4.8%，上月为 5.1%；环比 0.32%，前值 0.35%。8 月社零同比 2.1%，预期 2.5%，上月为 2.7%；环比0.01%，前值 0.27%。1-8 月固定资产投资同比 3.4%，预期 3.5%，前值 3.6%。1- 8 月，房地产开发投资同比-10.2%。 7、8 月经济数据放缓可能影响 3 季度 GDP 增长斜率，为完成全年经济工作目 标，稳增长仍需巩固加力。从供给端来看，8 月生产放缓主要受到了自然灾 害、高温天气等影响，在高技术产业出口景气度以及国家大规模设备更新的支 撑下，预计生产端依然能维持相对高增速。从投资端来看，制造业投资虽有放 缓，但部分高技术产业在政策和出口的支撑下仍维持较快增速，而基建投资增 速亦有望随着特别国债和专项债的发行而逐渐回升。 从需求端来看，超长期特别国债支持地方实施消费品以旧换新等措施仍在显效 发力，而以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求的措施仍有发力空间，促进内需恢复 基础巩固。与此同时，随着海外逐渐转 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 9 月 16 日 互联网行业月报 行业评级 领先 8 月电商：开学采购及以旧换新带动带电品类回暖 8 月实物电商网上零售额调整后同比增 4.1%，对比 7 月/2 季度增 8.1%/6.4%。分品类看，食品/日用品/化妆品趋势大体与 7 月一致，开学采 购带动通讯器材保持双位数增长，受益于以旧换新补贴家用电器增速转 正，体育和娱乐用品/家具增速放缓（图表 2）。邮政局预测，8 月快递业 务量同比增约 19%，七夕活动和开学季带动寄递需求上升。 展望： 1）阿里淘天市占稳定，我们预计 9 月季度 GMV 同步大盘高个位数 增长，考虑全站推广效果逐渐体现及9月起向淘宝/闲鱼商家收取技术服务 费，变现将在未来几个季度持续推进。2）拼多多我们判断內地电商高性 价比心智稳固，GMV 增速仍将领先大盘，变现率或因生态治理战略导致 季度间有所波动。3）京东我们预计以旧换新补贴陆续落地将推动带电品 类销售回暖，3 季度实现 GMV 中高个位数增长，供应链能力提升带来的利 润优化效果将持续。4）快手因竞争等负面影响持续，我们预计 3 季度 GMV 增速放缓至 15%。 公司动态更新：1）阿 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------|-----------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 汽车 | 收盘价 港元 6.50 | 目标价 港元 6.24 | 潜在涨幅 -4.0% | 2024 年 9 月 3 日 | | 绿源集团 | (2451 HK) | | | | | | 企业和机构客户拓展顺利，上半年收入逆势增长 | | | | 上半年收入逆势增长，盈利能力稳定。2024 上半年公司收入 25.3 亿元（ 人民币，下同），同比增 3.2%，其中电动自行车收入同比增 25.1%至 15.5 亿元，ASP 和销量分别同比-5.4%/+32.2%。公司严控费用，上半年营 销费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为 6.0%/2.1%/3.6%，整体费用率同 比降 0.4 个百分点至 11.6%。净利润同比增 9. ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 资料来源：FactSet，公司资料，交银国际预测 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 3.95 港元 3.36↓ -14.9% 新能源 2024 年 9 月 2 日 凯盛新能 (1108 HK) 2 季度亏损加大，维持中性 我们下调了凯盛新能的盈利预测及估值。我们认为光伏玻璃价格将在较长时 间内维持低位，因此维持公司中性评级，考虑到玻璃价格跌幅超预期，基于 0.43 倍 2024 年市净率（相比龙头福莱特（6865 HK）目前的 0.97 倍折让约 55%，这一幅度为今年以来平均水平），下调目标价至 3.36 港元。 2 季度亏损加大，和龙头毛利率差距扩大：公司 2 季度归母净亏损 4843 万 元，相比 1 季度的 635 万元亏损加大，符合业绩预告，低于我们预期，收 入环比增长 7.2%，毛利率 5.9%，环比下降 2.3 个百分点，创出新低，并计 提 2606 万元存货减值。公司上半年光伏玻璃产/销量 1.96/1.94 亿平米，同 比增长 27%/31%，毛利率 6.9%，相比龙头 21%以上的毛利率，差距扩大。 公司 4 月点火洛阳 1200 吨产线，7 月冷修合肥 650 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------| | 交银国际研究 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 9 日 | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for MOMO US with a target price of $5.90, indicating a potential downside of 7.7% from the current price of $6.39 [1][8]. Core Insights - The core business of MOMO, including Momo and Tantan, is still in an adjustment phase, leading to continued pressure on short-term revenue and profits. The new business segments are growing rapidly but are expected to slow down [1]. - For the second quarter of 2024, MOMO's revenue is projected to decline by 12% year-on-year, with profits expected to align with previous forecasts. Tantan is focusing on optimizing user experience and matching efficiency, but may turn unprofitable in the second half of the year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The new revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards, with total revenue expected to be RMB 10,448 million for 2024 and RMB 10,303 million for 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3% and 7% respectively from previous estimates [2]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1,144 million, down 6% from previous estimates, while for 2025 it is expected to be RMB 1,476 million, a decrease of 17% [2]. - **Gross Margin**: The adjusted gross margin is projected to be 40.1% for 2024, slightly down from 40.4% in the previous forecast [2]. - **Operating Income**: The operating income for the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be RMB 425 million, reflecting a 25% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 49% decline year-on-year [6]. Business Segment Performance - **Momo and Tantan**: Momo's revenue is expected to be RMB 9,573 million for 2024, while Tantan's revenue is projected at RMB 873 million, both showing declines from previous forecasts [2][6]. - **New Applications**: Revenue from new applications is expected to grow by 36% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas social product Soulchill [1]. Market Context - MOMO's market capitalization is currently below its net cash position, which stood at $1.7 billion at the end of the second quarter, indicating limited downside potential for the stock price [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 32.1% from the current price of HKD 4.77 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in growth for the first half of 2024, with revenue expected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year to approximately RMB 6.838 billion. The overall revenue growth for the year is projected to slow to around 10% due to market adjustments [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 improved by 0.8 percentage points to 16.8%, outperforming the general decline seen in peers [2]. - The company achieved a balance between scale expansion and profit, maintaining a target of 1:1 for internal and external growth in property management [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to achieve double-digit growth in revenue and profit over the next two to three years, supported by strong external expansion capabilities and stable delivery from state-owned enterprises [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 14.337 billion (growth of 9.9%) - 2025E: RMB 16.514 billion (growth of 15.2%) - 2026E: RMB 18.930 billion (growth of 14.6%) [3][7]. - Core profit estimates are projected to be: - 2024E: RMB 1.544 billion - 2025E: RMB 1.785 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.058 billion [3][7]. - The report notes a decrease in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by approximately 17.5% and 26.1%, respectively, due to the downward adjustment in revenue expectations [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 18.60%, with a 52-week high of HKD 9.58 and a low of HKD 4.05 [5][6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.61 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 15.664 billion [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 486 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of 373.40 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is enhancing its product matrix, focusing on large model capabilities and accelerating their application in various scenarios. The company has upgraded its large model to "Hunyuan Turbo," which improves inference efficiency and decoding speed by 100% and 20%, respectively, at half the cost of the previous generation [1]. - Tencent Cloud has surpassed 11,000 ecosystem partners and serves over 2 million customers, demonstrating healthy and sustainable business growth. The number of partners with orders exceeding one million has also seen double-digit growth [1]. - The company is expanding its international digital solutions, helping businesses iterate commercially in their global strategies. For instance, ultra-low latency live streaming has improved interaction and transaction rates for e-commerce platforms [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Development - Tencent has launched several new products, including the Tencent Cloud Intelligent Computing brand, which boasts superior performance and stability, with a daily failure rate one-third of the industry average. The training startup time is reduced to just one day [1]. - The introduction of the RAG solution allows for quick AI application development with minimal coding, supporting multi-modal retrieval and achieving double the industry average performance [1]. International Expansion - Tencent Cloud has accumulated over 10,000 overseas clients, with international business maintaining double-digit growth over the past three years. Notable clients include Meituan's Hong Kong delivery platform and the live streaming app JACO in Saudi Arabia [2]. - The report highlights Tencent's ability to enhance user experience and retention through improved server access speeds and upgraded product capabilities for international meetings, which have seen a nearly 50% increase in overseas meeting numbers since the beginning of the year [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 75.6% from the current price of HKD 34.10 [2][6]. Core Insights - NIO's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, signaling a turning point for the company. The second quarter revenue was RMB 17.5 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1%, slightly above expectations due to higher-than-expected sales volume. The automotive gross margin was 12.2%, higher than the anticipated 10-11% due to renegotiated supplier contracts leading to lower unit costs and a slight reduction in discounts and promotions [1][2][3]. - NIO expects third-quarter vehicle deliveries to be between 61,000 and 63,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10.0% to 13.7%. Total revenue is projected to be between RMB 19.11 billion and RMB 19.67 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of about 0.2% to 3.2%, both figures being historical highs for the company [1][3]. - The report anticipates a sequential improvement in automotive gross margins in the second half of the year, driven by increased sales and reduced promotions. The launch of the new model, the ET5, is expected to further support sales growth and margin improvement [1][2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NIO are as follows: RMB 55.6 billion in 2023, RMB 62.8 billion in 2024, and RMB 86.4 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.9%, 13.0%, and 37.5% respectively [3][7]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 20.8 billion in 2023 to RMB 16.9 billion in 2024, indicating a potential improvement in profitability over the next few years [3][7]. - The report highlights that the automotive gross margin is expected to improve further, with the new model, the L60, set to launch at a pre-sale price of RMB 219,900, which is anticipated to be the only option under RMB 200,000 for a swappable battery vehicle [1][2].

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 9 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | CPI、PPI 分化扩大—中国 8 月通胀数据点评 | | 中国 8 月 CPI 同比 0.6%，预期 0.7%，前值 0.5%；环比 0.4%，预期 0.5%，前值 0.5%。中国8月PPI同比-1.8%，预期-1.4%，前值-0.8%；环比-0.7%，前值-0.2%。 促消费措施效应仍待时间显现。8 月居民价格指数上涨主要来自食品 价格超季节性上涨所推动，而非食品、服务价格回落均超过季节性。 惠民生、促消费，以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求的措施仍有发力空 间。同时，随着海外转向降息，中国央行的货币操作空间增大，期待 后续将有更多积极政策出台生效，压降企业、居民端成本，从而促进 内需。 海外扰动影响下，PPI 下行压力仍在。近期海外衰退担忧升温，受此 影响，国际大宗商品价格波动加剧，能源、材料价格普遍回落。同 ...