Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25-5.50% for now, with a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts later in the year[15] - The median forecast indicates one rate cut in 2024, with 8 officials supporting two cuts and 7 supporting one cut, aligning with market expectations[5] - The Fed's long-term interest rate forecast has been raised from 2.6% to 2.8%, indicating a shift towards a higher and longer-lasting interest rate environment[8] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with inflation risks still present, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming inflation and employment data over the next 2-3 months[1] - The May CPI and core CPI data were both below expectations, contributing to a more cautious stance from the Fed regarding rate cuts[3] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to 2.8%, suggesting that achieving the 2% inflation target may be challenging[14] Group 3: Market Expectations and Financial Conditions - Current market expectations are pricing in one rate cut in November, reflecting a neutral stance towards future rate changes[28] - Financial conditions have loosened, returning to levels seen in March, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process[11] - The global liquidity environment is expected to remain "tight but loose" in the second half of 2024, influenced by the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 2.50**, representing a potential upside of **+15.7%** from the current price of HKD 2.16 [1][2] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to return to growth in **2025**, with the dividend yield remaining the highest in the sub-sector [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve a breakthrough in wind and solar installed capacity in **2024**, with a target of **2.7 GW** of new installations, compared to **0.8 GW** in 2023 [2] - The company's **2024/25** profit forecasts have been slightly revised downward by **0.3%/0.7%** due to adjustments in wind and solar utilization hours and operating costs [2] - The company's **2025/26** wind and solar installations are expected to reach **4.2 GW** annually, contingent on the utilization rate of projects in 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from **RMB 20,446 million** in 2023 to **RMB 25,880 million** in 2026, with a CAGR of **8.1%** [4] - Net profit is expected to increase from **RMB 3,150 million** in 2023 to **RMB 4,640 million** in 2026, with a CAGR of **13.8%** [4] - The company's **2024/25/26** dividend yield is expected to remain at **7.0%**, with a consistent dividend payout of **RMB 0.14** per share [2][4] Operational Highlights - The company's total installed capacity is expected to grow from **17,236 MW** in 2024 to **25,636 MW** in 2026, with wind and solar accounting for **80.1%** of the total by 2026 [5] - Wind and solar power generation is expected to increase from **20,274 GWh** in 2024 to **33,812 GWh** in 2026, despite a slight downward revision in utilization hours [5] - The company's **2024** wind and solar utilization hours are expected to decline by **2.0%** and **1.5%**, respectively, compared to previous forecasts [5] Valuation and Market Position - The company's valuation is based on a **5.2x** forward P/E ratio, in line with its 5-year historical average [2] - The company's **7.0%** dividend yield is the highest among its peers in the operator sub-sector, supporting its valuation [2] - The company's recent improvement in trading volume could enhance its chances of being included in the **Stock Connect** program [2]

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年6月13日 港元2.09 港元2.21↑ +5.7% 大唐新能源 (1798 HK) 估值继续提升需要盈利增长的突破，下调评级至中性  上半年业绩仍有同比下跌的风险。受风/光利用小时同比下跌影响，我们 个股评级 认为公司2024年上半年盈利仍有下跌风险。公司以往上半年新增装机量 中性↓ 较少，加上今年1季度的电价和前四个月总发电情况推算，公司上半年风 电发电量同比变动要优于-1.5%，才能达到盈利同比持平。公司前四个月 风电发电量同比下跌5.6%，上半年风电发电量跌幅如果相若，上半年盈 1年股价表现 利将同比下跌约10%。这有待公司在7月公布运营数据我们再作判断。 1798 HK 恒生指数 5% 0%  每年新増装机量有加快的必要，以应对存量项目利用率下降的风险。目前 -5% -10% 我们预期公司 2024/25 年新增装机量为 1.8/2.1 吉瓦，同比上升 -15% -20% 11.7%/12.2%。因新增项目为平价项目，以及市场化交易电量占比上升， -25% -30% 我们预期风电/光伏电价在2024/25年每年约有3%的同比降幅 ...

资料来源: Macrobond, 交银国际 图表 3: CPI 环比 ▪▪ 2024 CPI环比 === 均值 ==== 均值 = 7 - 5 3 - 1 · -1 -3 -5 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec lan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 资料来源: Macrobond, 交银国际 图表 5: 非食品价格环比 图表 4:核心 CPI 环比 ▪● 2024 核心CPI环比 === 均值 ■ 最大值/最小值 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.0 -0.2 - -0.4 -0.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 资料来源: Macrobond,交费国际 图表 6: 食品价格环比 ►■ 2024 CPI环比:食品 == 均值 ■ 最大值/最小值 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 资料来源: Macrobond,交黎国际 图表 8: 交通价格环比 == 2024 CPI环比:交通 === 均值 === 均值 = 2.5 - 2.0 - 1.5 - 1.0 - ...

2024 年 5 月中国出口数据超预期。以美元计价，5 月出口同比增 7.6%，高于预 期 5.7%，前值 1.5%；5 月进口同比增 1.8%，低于预期 4.4%，前值 8.4%。5 月 贸易顺差 826.6 亿美元，高于预期 720.5 亿美元，前值 723.5 亿美元。 机电产品和高新技术产品是出口维持韧性的主要驱动力，对出口增长贡献 分別达到 4.5%和 2.0%。具体来看：1) 集成电路、汽车及船舶出口同比贡 献分别达 0.8%、0.6%和 0.6%，是本月出口的主要贡献项。边际变化上， 集成电路的边际出口贡献提高了 0.3%，出口量价双升也反映了全球半导 体产业景气度的提升，当前全球半导体周期已经触底回升，多家主流机构 也在陆续上调 2024 年全球半导体的销售预测。2) 汽车、船舶出口同比仍 保持着较高增速，分别达 16.5%和 62.2%，但边际贡献有所转弱，分别下 降 0.5%及 0.7%。其中，汽车出口量增价减，出口价格跌幅由上月的-1.8% 扩大至-10.1%，而出口量变化不大，维持在 30%左右的同比增速。当前新 兴市场整体新能源车渗透率仍较低，叠加中国新能源汽车强劲的国际竞争 力，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 129.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 112.70 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's profit exceeded expectations, with an adjusted operating profit forecast increased by 57 billion RMB (up 18% to 374 billion RMB) primarily driven by improvements in the food delivery and in-store travel segments [2][3][21]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards by approximately 1% due to enhanced operational efficiency and a focus on high-quality growth strategies [21]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2022 was 219,955 million RMB, projected to grow to 276,745 million RMB in 2023, and further to 331,135 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25.8% for 2023 and 19.7% for 2024 [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,827 million RMB in 2022 to 23,253 million RMB in 2023, and further to 37,620 million RMB in 2024, indicating a substantial growth trajectory [4]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.45 RMB in 2022 to 3.71 RMB in 2023, and to 5.97 RMB in 2024, showcasing a strong recovery and growth potential [4]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a 24% year-on-year increase in order volume, with revenue growth slightly lagging at 23% [3][9]. - The flash purchase segment experienced a remarkable growth of over 60% in order volume, contributing positively to overall profitability [3][10]. - The in-store travel segment's gross transaction value (GTV) grew by over 60%, with revenue increasing by 30% [3][10][28]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report indicates that the average user expenditure (UE) for food delivery is expected to improve to approximately 1.3 RMB per order, despite a decline in average order value (AOV) [3][26]. - New business losses are projected to narrow by 30 billion RMB, with specific improvements noted in the preferred selection segment [3][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2] Core Views - The company is expected to face significant short-term profit pressure due to a sharp decline in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices, with an estimated loss of approximately 200 million RMB in Q2 [2] - The company's production capacity utilization for granular silicon has improved to 80-90%, with expectations to reach full production in Q3, which may reduce costs below 40,000 RMB per ton [2] - A long-term sales agreement with leading silicon wafer manufacturer Longi has been signed, indicating strong industry recognition of the company's granular silicon quality [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices in Q3 after a significant decline, suggesting that the current severe losses in the industry may not be sustainable [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 35,930 million RMB in 2022 to an estimated 22,865 million RMB in 2024, with a subsequent recovery to 31,965 million RMB by 2026 [4][8] - Net profit is expected to drop sharply from 16,394 million RMB in 2022 to 236 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 3,345 million RMB in 2026 [4][8] - The gross margin is projected to decrease significantly from 75.0% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2024, with a gradual improvement to 30.1% by 2026 [5][8] Valuation - The valuation for the polysilicon business is set at 355 billion RMB, while new businesses such as perovskite and silane gas are valued at 50 billion RMB, leading to a total valuation of 405 billion RMB [6] - The target price for the company's stock is adjusted to 1.62 HKD from the previous 1.67 HKD, reflecting the recent stock price increase and limited short-term valuation attractiveness [2][6]

Interest Rate Changes - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, 3.75%, and 4.50% respectively[1] - The ECB raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from 2.3% and 2.0% to 2.5% and 2.2% respectively, indicating limited room for further rate cuts[1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is at a low of 6.4%, reflecting a robust labor market[2] - The wage growth in the Eurozone for Q1 2024 reached 4.7%, supporting the overall economic recovery[31] Future Policy Outlook - The ECB is expected to adopt a cautious approach to future rate cuts, indicating a "wait and see" strategy rather than a series of consecutive cuts[2] - The current global liquidity environment is characterized as "tight but easing," with the ECB's cautious stance potentially widening interest rate differentials with the US[3] Inflation Dynamics - Despite a successful decline in inflation, there are upward risks due to external factors such as rising international shipping costs and geopolitical tensions[31] - The ECB's inflation trajectory remains uncertain, with the potential for inflation to remain sticky compared to the US[39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 43.9% from the current price of HKD 41.60 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - NIO's Q1 2024 performance was below expectations, with revenue of RMB 9.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.2%, and vehicle deliveries of 30,053 units, down 3.2% year-on-year. The gross margin was 4.9%, with automotive gross margin at 9.2%, slightly lower than expected due to increased promotional efforts during product transitions [1][2]. - The guidance for Q2 2024 is strong, with expected vehicle deliveries between 54,000 and 56,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 129.6% to 138.1%. Revenue guidance is set at RMB 16.59 billion to RMB 17.14 billion, a year-on-year growth of 89.1% to 95.3% [1][2]. - NIO's management anticipates an improvement in automotive gross margin in Q2, driven by increased sales volume and a shift towards more self-developed components, which is expected to enhance profitability [1][2][9]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO is projected to generate revenue of RMB 62.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. The net loss is expected to be RMB 16.87 billion, with an estimated loss per share of RMB 9.92 [3][9]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents of RMB 45.3 billion as of Q1 2024, providing a solid liquidity position to support ongoing operations and expansion [1][9]. - The report highlights that NIO's monthly sales are expected to stabilize at 25,000 to 30,000 units by 2025, with the new brand, Ladao, anticipated to contribute significantly to sales growth [2][9]. Market Position - NIO's market capitalization is approximately HKD 157.52 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 122.60 and a low of HKD 29.65, indicating significant volatility in its stock price [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the battery swapping experience offered by NIO's Ladao brand is a key differentiator in the market, particularly for models priced under RMB 200,000 [2][9]. Future Outlook - The management aims to achieve a target of 100 direct sales stores for the Ladao brand by the end of the year, with a gross margin target of around 15% [1][2]. - NIO plans to launch a mid-to-large SUV under the Ladao brand next year, along with a lower-priced model named "Firefly," which is expected to further enhance its market presence [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price of HKD 4.75, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current closing price of HKD 3.74 [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that new policies for renewable energy consumption are favorable for the advancement of new wind and solar projects, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1]. - Hydropower is recovering as expected, with a significant year-on-year increase in generation, and the forecast for hydropower utilization hours has been slightly raised for 2024 [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the company's new installed capacity in wind and solar will contribute positively to profit growth, supported by national policies [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 43,689 million in 2022 to RMB 61,756 million by 2026, with a notable increase of 16.2% expected in 2024 [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from RMB 2,648 million in 2022 to RMB 8,791 million in 2026, with a substantial growth rate of 73.4% in 2024 [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.20 in 2022 to RMB 0.68 in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. Power Generation Forecast - The report provides a detailed forecast for power generation, with total generation expected to reach 133,468 GWh by 2026, showing a steady increase across various energy sources [6]. - Hydropower generation is expected to recover to 17,258 GWh in 2026, while wind and solar generation are projected to grow significantly, with solar expected to reach 36,877 GWh by 2026 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, resulting in a target price of HKD 4.75, based on various valuation multiples for different energy segments [7]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is estimated at 7.7%, making the stock attractive for income-focused investors [2][11]. Installed Capacity and Utilization - The report anticipates a total installed capacity of 67,019 MW by 2026, with a significant portion coming from renewable sources [5]. - The utilization hours for wind and solar are expected to stabilize, with adjustments made to previous estimates based on recent performance data [2].