Group 1: Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in Q1 2024, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic targets[65] - The global economic outlook is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, supported by easing financial conditions[83] - The importance of domestic demand is rising, with strong policy support anticipated to improve the supply-demand imbalance[42] Group 2: Export and External Demand - Price factors are expected to gradually improve, but uncertainties affecting exports will persist in the second half of 2024[81] - China's exports are projected to receive support as U.S. manufacturers' inventories stabilize, typically leading Chinese exports by five months[100] - The contribution of net exports to GDP has turned positive after five consecutive quarters of negative impact[91] Group 3: Real Estate and Policy Measures - The government is implementing policies to stimulate the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and removing interest rate caps[105] - "Old-for-new" housing policies are being expanded to enhance the supply of affordable housing, with nearly 40 cities adopting related measures[109] - The People's Bank of China plans to establish a 300 billion yuan re-loan program for affordable housing, potentially mobilizing 500 billion yuan in commercial bank loans[27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 120.00, indicating a potential upside of 11.8% from the current closing price of HKD 107.30 [9]. Core Insights - The first quarter gross margin exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast. The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.96 billion for Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, which aligns with expectations. The gross margin improved by 11 and 3 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, benefiting from economies of scale in online music, optimized copyright costs, and a reduced revenue-sharing ratio from social income [1][5]. - Membership growth is expected to slightly outperform previous forecasts, with a projected year-on-year increase of 21% in the first half of the year. The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - The product revamp focuses on enhancing the core music user experience, although social income may continue to face pressure in the short term. The company has slightly lowered its full-year social income forecast due to a contraction in live streaming traffic [1][5]. - There is still potential for further gross margin improvement as the company continues to expand its copyright content coverage, including partnerships with Korean entertainment companies JYP and Kakao [1][5]. - Based on the better-than-expected gross margin optimization, the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been raised to RMB 1.1 billion, with a target price adjustment based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable music and copyright companies [1][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.996 billion for 2024, RMB 8.878 billion for 2025, and RMB 9.921 billion for 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 11.0%, and 11.7% respectively [4][10]. - The net profit is expected to be RMB 1.141 billion in 2024, RMB 1.270 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.617 billion in 2026, with significant growth from a loss of RMB 115 million in 2022 to a profit in subsequent years [4][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 27% in 2023 to 34% in 2024, maintaining at 34% in 2025 and increasing to 36% in 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on AMD with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $200, representing a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of $166.90 [2][9][20]. Core Insights - AMD is positioned as a key player in the semiconductor industry, balancing the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle. The company is expected to generate $4.5 billion and $9 billion in sales from AI-accelerated chips in 2024 and 2025, respectively [2][25][28]. - The traditional data center business is anticipated to gain market share, while the client business is expected to recover cyclically. Recent stock price corrections may present a buying opportunity [2][8][9]. Financial Forecast - AMD's revenue is projected to reach $25.98 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.5%, and $33.38 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 28.5% [4][13]. - Net profit is expected to be $5.89 billion in 2024 and $9.40 billion in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at $3.59 and $5.73, respectively [4][14]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 43 times [3][20]. Valuation - The target price of $200 corresponds to an average P/E ratio of 43 times for 2024/2025, which is a premium over the historical average of 34.8 times [3][20]. - Sensitivity analysis indicates that AMD's stock price could range between $164 and $266 based on variations in data center GPU revenue and operating profit margins [3][23]. AI-Driven Growth - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive AMD's data center business, with a significant increase in the proportion of chips used for inference tasks [2][25][29]. - The company is projected to capture a market share of 9.6% in AI-accelerated GPU chips by 2026, benefiting from advancements in its MI300 series [2][28][29]. Client and Gaming Business Outlook - The client business is anticipated to recover in 2024, driven by a cyclical upgrade cycle and the emergence of AI PCs [2][8]. - Gaming and embedded business revenues are expected to decline significantly in 2024 but may see a moderate recovery in 2025 [2][8][10]. Hardware Innovation and Competitive Edge - AMD's hardware capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive position, particularly in the CPU segment, with projected revenues of $12.95 billion from data center CPUs in 2024 [42][43]. - The company continues to innovate with its Zen architecture, which is expected to further improve performance and efficiency in upcoming product releases [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 70.00, indicating a potential upside of 59.1% from the current price of HKD 44.00 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has achieved positive results in its Phase III clinical trial (AK112-303/HARMONi2) against Keytruda for PD-L1 positive NSCLC, demonstrating a significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) [1][2]. - AK112 is the first drug to show survival benefit improvement in a head-to-head Phase III trial against a PD-1 monotherapy, with expected hazard ratio (HR) below 0.7 [1][2]. - The company plans to submit a supplemental application for new indications to the National Medical Products Administration soon [1]. Summary by Sections Clinical Trial Results - The HARMONi-A study reported a median PFS of 7.1 months for the treatment group (AK112 + chemotherapy) compared to 4.8 months for the control group, with an HR of 0.46 (P<0.001) [5]. - Subgroup analyses showed significant PFS benefits across various patient populations, including those with brain metastases and specific mutations [7][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 838 million in 2022 to RMB 4,526 million in 2023, with a subsequent decline to RMB 3,097 million in 2024, followed by recovery in the following years [12]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2023, reaching RMB 2,220 million, before experiencing fluctuations in the following years [12]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a market capitalization of HKD 37,983 million and a significant trading volume [3][11]. - The report highlights the company's strong potential in the global market, particularly in the oncology segment, following the successful trial results [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping Insurance (966 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 10.60, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of HKD 8.45 [1][2][10]. Core Views - The report anticipates a strong recovery in both the asset and liability sides of the company in 2024, with a projected 17% year-on-year growth in profit [2][4]. - New business value is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in 2024, driven by factors such as lower expense ratios from the bancassurance channel and product structure optimization [1][2]. - The solvency ratio of Taiping Life is robust, with a core solvency ratio of 142.79% as of Q1 2024, indicating a strong capital position compared to peers [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from HKD 141,055 million in 2023 to HKD 149,350 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 7,247 million in 2024, marking a 17.1% increase [4][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment income, with total investment income forecasted to grow from HKD 33,566 million in 2023 to HKD 38,887 million in 2024 [6][11]. Business Metrics and Projections - The new business value is projected to reach HKD 8,457 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6% [5][11]. - The report notes an increase in the investment return rate, with net investment return expected to be 3.46% in 2024 [5][11]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from HKD 1,509,497 million in 2023 to HKD 1,656,989 million in 2024 [7][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 89.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.5% from the current price of HKD 63.35 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report projects a revenue of USD 1.128 billion for Q4 FY2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31%, aligning with the company's guidance of 28-31% growth [1]. - The expansion of offline teaching points is on track, with a projected 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, contributing to a total annual target of 30% growth [1]. - The contribution from Dongfang Zhenxuan is expected to account for 20% of New Oriental's revenue, with a projected revenue increase of 58% year-on-year to RMB 1.59 billion (USD 220 million) in Q4 [1][2]. Financial Overview - For FY2024, the estimated revenue is USD 4.305 billion, with a projected operating profit margin of 14% for FY2025 and 16% for FY2026, indicating continuous margin improvement [2][13]. - The report forecasts a net profit of USD 770 million for Q4 FY2024, with an adjusted operating profit of USD 69 million, reflecting a decrease in operating profit margin by 3 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. - The financial data shows a significant recovery from previous years, with net profit expected to rise to USD 421 million in FY2024 and USD 628 million in FY2025 [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from study abroad preparation is expected to grow by 21%, while high school education and non-subject skills training are also projected to grow by 21% and 59%, respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the offline teaching point expansion will have a minor negative impact on overall gross margin, estimated at approximately -0.4 percentage points [1]. Market Position - New Oriental's market position remains strong, with a focus on expanding its educational services and adapting to market demands, particularly in new first-tier cities and lower-tier cities [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company, but it estimates a fair value of $1.95 per share, indicating a potential upside of 7.0% from the current price of $1.82 [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenues of approximately 1.90 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Adjusted EBITDA was 540 million RMB, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, representing 24.2% of the full-year forecast [1][3]. - The company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting revenues between 7.8 billion and 8.0 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% to 7.9% [1]. - Wholesale business growth is a key driver for overall performance, with Q1 2024 wholesale revenue reaching 360 million RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4%, contributing 19% to total revenue [1][3]. - Retail business saw a decline, with Q1 2024 retail revenue at 920 million RMB, down 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 49% to total revenue [1][3]. - The company has a high pre-lease rate of 74.5% for its 139 MW of projects under construction, which is expected to drive future capacity and revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 1,898 million RMB, with a gross profit of 411 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 28.4%, up 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - Net profit for Q1 2024 was -159 million RMB, a significant decline compared to the previous year [3]. Business Segments - Wholesale revenue accounted for 19% of total revenue in Q1 2024, up from 16% in Q4 2023, while retail revenue's contribution decreased to 49% [1][3]. - Non-data center business revenue remained stable at 613 million RMB, contributing 32% to total revenue [1][3]. Future Growth Potential - The company has 557 MW of projects in the pipeline, with a strong pre-lease rate expected to support future revenue growth [2]. - The expansion target for 2024 has been raised from 100-120 MW to 100-140 MW due to the positive outlook for the wholesale business [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 457, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times for 2024 [3][13]. Core Insights - Tencent's AI assistant "Tencent Yuanbao" app launched on May 30, 2024, enhances work efficiency through features like AI search and document summarization, integrating fully with Tencent's ecosystem [1]. - The mobile game "Dungeon & Fighter" (DNF) achieved over USD 100 million in revenue in its first week, exceeding previous expectations of RMB 500 million for the first month [2]. - Tencent's upcoming game releases and the recovery of existing titles are expected to accelerate revenue growth in Q2, with projected revenue growth of 7% and a gross profit increase of 17% [3]. Summary by Sections AI Assistant Launch - Tencent's AI assistant app integrates various functionalities to improve user experience and efficiency, leveraging its ecosystem for enhanced search capabilities [1]. - The app features nearly 20 free applications, including language practice and creative tools, aimed at enriching daily interactions [1]. Game Performance - DNF mobile game revenue reached USD 63 million in the first week, with total revenue estimates exceeding USD 100 million across all channels [2]. - The report anticipates strong performance from new game launches and a resurgence in older titles, contributing to overall revenue growth [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a 7% revenue increase in Q2, driven by advertising, gaming, and enterprise services, with respective growth rates of 16%, 4%, and 16% [3]. - The expected gross profit growth of 17% is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses within the revenue mix [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company, YY US, with a target price of $33.00, indicating a potential upside of 1.1% from the current closing price of $32.65 [1][17]. Core Insights - The company's core products are showing signs of recovery, although short-term profit growth is under pressure. In Q1 2024, YY US reported revenues of $570 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3% but slightly above expectations. Adjusted operating profit was $25 million, compared to $28 million in the same period last year, and adjusted net profit was $67 million, up 35% year-on-year, exceeding both internal and market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue was $570 million, slightly above the forecast of $550 million, with a year-on-year decline of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1][13]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was $67 million, a 35% increase year-on-year, surpassing expectations of $52 million [1][2]. - The company’s BIGO segment saw revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, driven by an increase in paying users and a significant rise in non-live revenue, which grew by 195% [2][3]. - The management has guided for Q2 2024 revenue to be between $538 million and $569 million, aligning closely with market expectations [2][3]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The target price has been revised down to $33 from $37, reflecting a 9x P/E ratio for 2024. The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with $54.5 million allocated for buybacks in Q1 2024 [2][3]. - Despite the recovery in core business, short-term profit growth is expected to be constrained, particularly due to the impact of Baidu's termination of the YY Live transaction on investor sentiment [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at $2.288 billion, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.9%. Net profit is expected to decline by 17% to $240 million [3][18]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in its core business, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 being revised down by 10% to $240 million [2][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年5月29日 美元4.84 美元5.90↓ +21.9% 挚文集团 (MOMO US) 核心业务收入仍承压，下半年降幅有望收窄  1季度运营利润超预期：2024年1季度收入25.6亿元（人民币，下同）， 个股评级 同/环比降9%/15%，略超我们/市场预期3%/4%。经调整运营利润 5.2亿元， 中性 同比降1% ，好于市场预期的4.4亿元，对应经调整运营利润率20%，同比 优化2个百分点，受益于陌陌和探探分成优化及营销费用控制，部分被新 1年股价表现 独立应用分成提升所抵消。经调整净利润5.1亿元（剔除4.5亿元预提税 MOMO US 项）影响，同比+26%，好于我们和市场预期的4.1亿元。 30% MSCI中国指数 20%  运营调整影响持续，陌陌/探探收入仍承压。陌陌主站：1季度直播/增值 10% 收入同比降11%/15%，主要受赛事收缩以及社交消费情绪疲弱影响，公司 0% -10% 增加优质内容供给及新互动玩法，部分弥补流水下滑，或拉动2季度恢复 -20% -30% 环比增长。新应用：收入维持强劲同比增势（52%），受益于海外社交产 ...