Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 4, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds mostly declined, and the yields of financial bonds basically declined [2][3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Stock Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds are higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds (both state - owned and private enterprises) and real estate bonds (state - owned and private enterprises) generally saw yield declines. Among them, 1 - year and 2 - 3 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds had yield declines of 5.8BP and 6.7BP respectively, and the yield declines of 3 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual real estate bonds were all over 6BP. Financial bonds also had mostly declining yields, with significant declines in 1 - year perpetual lease bonds and short - end bank sub - debt [2][3][8] 2. Public Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are below 2.4%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% are in Guizhou's prefecture - level and district - county - level areas, and areas like Yunnan and Gansu have high spreads. Yields mainly declined compared with last week, with an average decline of 3.8BP for 1 - year varieties. Bonds with large decline amplitudes include 1 - year Zhejiang provincial perpetual, 1 - year Guizhou prefecture - level non - perpetual, 1 - 2 - year Guangxi district - county - level non - perpetual, and 1 - year Xinjiang provincial non - perpetual bonds [2][15] 3. Private Offering Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. Bonds with yields higher than 4% are in Guizhou's prefecture - level areas, and areas like Yunnan and Gansu have high spreads. The proportion of yield decline is high compared with last week, but there is differentiation among terms. The average yield of 1 - year varieties declined by 3.9BP, and the long - end performance was slightly weaker. Bonds with large decline amplitudes include 1 - 2 - year Guizhou district - county - level non - perpetual, 3 - 5 - year Shaanxi prefecture - level perpetual, 1 - year Liaoning prefecture - level and district - county - level non - perpetual urban investment bonds, with declines of 8.6BP, 15.6BP, 9.5BP, and 9.3BP respectively [2][24] 4. Financial Bonds - Bonds with high valuation yields and spreads include urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools and leasing company bonds. Yields basically declined compared with last week. 1 - year perpetual lease bonds had a large decline amplitude, and 2 - 3 - year private non - perpetual varieties had slight adjustments. Bank sub - debt was favored, with dominant performance concentrated in the short - end. 1 - year joint - stock bank and 1 - 2 - year urban commercial bank secondary capital bonds had yield declines of 11.5BP and 8.8BP respectively, and the long - end secondary bonds had a decline amplitude of around 3BP. 2 - year joint - stock bank and urban commercial bank commercial financial bonds recovered first, especially the 1 - year joint - stock bank variety with a 5BP decline. The allocation sentiment for securities company bonds was good, with 1 - year private and 1 - 2 - year public non - perpetual bonds having yield declines close to 6.5BP, but the willingness to sink was weak, and private sub - non - perpetual varieties generally adjusted [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond bull market is not over yet as the economic recovery pace is slowing down, inflation has limited upward elasticity, and the growth of social financing is weakening in the second half of 2025 [1][15]. - In the context of a long - term low - interest - rate environment and low credit spreads in China, the duration strategy becomes crucial in bond investment, and 10 - year treasury bonds are a relatively balanced choice [2]. - It is advisable to invest in long - duration treasury bond ETFs. Bond - type passive products are in the fast lane of development, and the 10 - year treasury bond ETF is a powerful tool for investors [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Observing the Situation: Economic Recovery Pace Slows Down, Bond Bull Market Continues - **2025 H1 Bond Market Performance**: The bond market first declined and then rose, with the turning point in March. From the beginning of the year to mid - March, it adjusted significantly due to exchange - rate stabilization and tight funds. In late March, it recovered due to tariff frictions. In April and May, it was affected by the central bank's double cuts and the Geneva talks, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend. In June, it oscillated downward and strengthened slightly with the central bank's signal of liquidity support [1][12][13]. - **2025 H2 Economic Outlook**: The economic recovery slope is likely to slow down, mainly because the "export rush" in H1 may lead to an overdraft effect on H2 exports, consumption may lose policy support, and the real - estate investment has not shown significant improvement. Prices are at the bottom with limited upward elasticity, and the social financing stock growth rate is likely to decline in Q3 and Q4 [15][21][22]. 2. Trend: Low - Interest - Rate Environment, Duration is King - **Long - Term Low - Interest - Rate Environment**: China's economic transformation and demographic changes are likely to lead to a long - term low - interest - rate environment. The decline in the traditional economic driving forces and the imbalance between capital supply and demand caused by population aging are the main reasons [28]. - **Importance of Duration Strategy**: In a low - interest - rate environment, adding long - duration bonds is the core to obtain term premiums. Compared with short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have relatively balanced performance in terms of return and risk. Among different bond types, treasury bonds have advantages in terms of tax and liquidity [2][31][40]. 3. Seizing the Opportunity: Allocating Long - Duration Treasury Bond ETFs - **Development of Bond ETFs**: The performance gap between active and passive bond products is narrowing, and the bond - type passive products are in a golden development period. The scale of bond ETFs has reached new highs this year. Compared with overseas markets, domestic bond ETFs have broad development space [3][44][45]. - **Advantages of Bond ETFs**: Bond ETFs have lower fees, higher transparency, and more flexible trading mechanisms. They support T + 0 trading, can be leveraged through pledge, and have lower management and custody fees [3][50]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF**: It is the only 10 - year treasury bond ETF in the domestic market, providing a powerful tool for investors to invest in 10 - year treasury bonds. Managed by Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang, it has excellent historical performance and good liquidity [3][57][60]. - **Cathay Fund**: As an ETF pioneer, Cathay Fund has a rich variety of ETF products, covering different asset classes. As of July 18, 2025, it has 69 ETFs with a total scale of 186.626 billion yuan, providing investors with a wide range of choices [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, emphasizing investment opportunities related to the upcoming military parade, military trade, industry recovery, and the new combat capabilities outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][51]. Core Insights - The report identifies four main investment themes: the upcoming military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War, the acceleration of China's military trade, the anticipated recovery in industry prosperity, and the focus on new combat capabilities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][11][19]. - Historical data shows that previous military parades in 2015 and 2019 led to significant excess returns in the military sector, with maximum absolute returns of 84.8% and 46.0%, respectively [3][21][30]. - Recent geopolitical events, such as the India-Pakistan conflict, have increased military trade demand and highlighted the performance of Chinese military equipment, further boosting the military sector's market value [4][35][37]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The report highlights the significance of the military parade on September 3, 2025, which will showcase advanced military technologies, including unmanned systems and cyber warfare capabilities, potentially catalyzing the military sector's growth [2][11]. - It notes the increasing profitability of Chinese military enterprises as military trade expands, with gross margins of key players like North Industries and AVIC showing promising trends compared to their U.S. counterparts [2][13]. - The report anticipates a sustained high level of orders for military enterprises in the second half of the year, indicating a positive industry outlook [2][15]. Historical Review - The report reviews the performance of the military sector during the 2015 and 2019 parades, noting substantial returns driven by market enthusiasm for military capabilities [3][21][30]. - It emphasizes that the military sector has consistently outperformed broader market indices during these periods, indicating a strong correlation between military events and stock performance [3][30]. Major Industry Events - Key events such as the announcement of the military parade, the India-Pakistan conflict, and various military exhibitions have significantly impacted the military sector's stock performance, with notable increases in index values following these announcements [4][32][38]. - The report details how the military sector has gained traction through various promotional activities and media coverage, enhancing public interest and investment potential [4][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on military-related stocks that are likely to benefit from the upcoming parade, military trade opportunities, and advancements in new combat capabilities [5][51].

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there have been no significant financial risks in the U.S., with the stock market recovering and reaching new highs after the April shock[3] - Concerns about liquidity have dissipated, primarily due to the ample supply of U.S. dollar liquidity[3] Group 2: Liquidity Analysis - The U.S. liquidity stock remains healthy, with approximately $500 billion in TGA replenishment needs increasing market liquidity concerns[4] - Risks stem not from insufficient liquidity but from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure following further liquidity injections[4] Group 3: Credit Creation Efficiency - If interest rate cuts do not effectively transmit to long-term rates, the U.S. may face a scenario of abundant liquidity but insufficient credit demand[4] - This situation could exacerbate the long-duration trend in bank balance sheets and inflate asset price bubbles, increasing sensitivity to interest rates and liquidity risks[4] Group 4: Banking System Resilience - As of Q1 2025, U.S. banks' excess reserves are estimated at around $900 billion, significantly above levels seen during the 2019 repo market crisis[12] - The liquidity supply capacity remains robust, with traditional large banks maintaining high liquidity supply capabilities in the repo market[12] Group 5: Structural Changes in Banking Assets - The proportion of U.S. Treasury securities in banks' loanable assets has increased by over 8 percentage points to 53% for top banks, indicating a shift towards holding to maturity assets[25] - The overall banking sector has unrealized losses totaling $410 billion, with approximately $260 billion from held-to-maturity assets, limiting banks' ability to liquidate assets for liquidity[32]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there has been no large-scale financial risk exposure in the U.S. market[1] - Following the April 1.0 liberation day shock, U.S. stocks not only recovered but also reached new highs[1] - Concerns about liquidity have dissipated, supported by ample dollar liquidity despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Demand - The current liquidity level in the U.S. remains healthy, with risks stemming from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure after further liquidity injections[1] - A focus on credit creation efficiency is essential, as insufficient credit demand may arise despite abundant liquidity[1] - If interest rate cuts do not effectively transmit to long-term rates, the U.S. may face a macroeconomic scenario of excess liquidity but insufficient credit demand[1] Group 3: Banking System Analysis - As of Q1 2025, U.S. banks have approximately $900 billion in excess reserves, significantly higher than during the 2019 repo market crisis[7] - The liquidity supply capability of the banking system remains robust, with traditional large banks maintaining high liquidity supply in the repo market[7] - The distribution of reserves has become more even, with the top five banks bearing the brunt of the balance sheet reduction, enhancing the resilience of the financial system[9] Group 4: Structural Changes in Assets - The proportion of U.S. Treasury securities in the total loanable assets has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 53% for traditional large banks[16] - The banking sector has unrealized losses totaling $410 billion, with about $260 billion from hold-to-maturity (HTM) assets, limiting liquidity[20] - The increase in HTM assets has led to longer asset durations, reflecting a decline in credit supply capabilities due to low demand for other loan types[21]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, assigning a target price of 71.25 RMB per share based on a 40x PE valuation for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the automation cycle, expansion into new fields, and direct sales to major clients, which are seen as three driving forces for growth [3]. - The company holds leading market shares in small PLCs and servo systems, with a market share of 7.6% and 3.7% respectively, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [4]. - The automation market is expected to recover, with a slight positive growth of 2% in Q1 2025 after nine consecutive quarters of decline, driven by equipment updates and digital transformation policies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - The company has over 20 years of experience in the industrial automation field, focusing on PLC and servo systems, which form its core competitive advantage [14]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering PLCs, drive systems, human-machine interfaces, and smart devices, with PLCs and drive systems contributing over 80% of revenue [15][17]. - The domestic small PLC market was valued at approximately 7.86 billion RMB in 2024, with a recovery in demand expected in 2025 [31]. Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its product lines into medium and large PLCs and frequency converters, with expected sales growth of 40-50% in 2025 [5]. - The company has launched new products in humanoid robotics and is leveraging the Wuxi industrial cluster to accelerate industrialization [5]. - The company has deepened its direct sales strategy, with over 80 major clients established by the end of 2024, contributing to a revenue increase of 25.8% [61]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 280 million RMB, 348 million RMB, and 418 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 24.4%, and 20.0% [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position and growth potential in the automation sector, particularly in the context of the recovery of the automation market and the expansion into new industries [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - This week (from July 28, 2025, to August 1, 2025), the REITs weighted index rose 1.81% to 102.69 points. The performance of major asset classes from high to low was: crude oil > REITs > pure bonds > stocks > convertible bonds > gold. Among REITs, the equity - type rose 2.54% to 117.51, and the concession - type rose 0.90% to 87.46. In terms of industry types, the weekly performance from high to low was: consumer - type > rental housing for security > energy - type > industrial park - type > ecological and environmental protection - type > highway - type [2]. - The top three REITs in terms of increase this week were Huaxia Capital - First Capital Outlets REIT (6.86%), ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT (6.75%), and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (5.77%). In terms of trading volume, BOC Sino - Sinotrans Logistics REIT, Cinda Principal Agricultural REIT, and Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT were at the forefront. In terms of turnover rate, BOC Sino - Sinotrans Logistics REIT, Cinda Principal Agricultural REIT, and Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT had relatively high turnover rates [3][12]. - In terms of valuation, for the P/FFO indicator, many REITs had a dynamic P/FFO lower than the industry average. For the P/NAV indicator, the top three undervalued REITs were Huaxia Yuexiu REIT, GF Chengdu High - tech Industrial Park REIT, and Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Highway REIT [4][19]. - As of August 1, 2025, there were 11 REIT products still in the exchange acceptance stage, 3 in the approved - to - be - listed state, and CICC Vipshop Outlets REIT was approved this week and was in the to - be - issued stage [5]. Summary by Directory Secondary Market Price and Volume Performance - **Overall Index Performance**: The REITs weighted index rose 1.81% this week. The equity - type REITs rose 2.54%, and the concession - type rose 0.90%. Different industry - type REITs also had different increases [2]. - **Individual REIT Performance**: The top three REITs in terms of increase were Huaxia Capital - First Capital Outlets REIT, ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT, and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT. The REITs with high trading volume and turnover rate were BOC Sino - Sinotrans Logistics REIT, Cinda Principal Agricultural REIT, and Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT [3][12]. - **Fund Inflow and Block Trading**: The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were BOC Sino - Sinotrans Logistics REIT, Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, and Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT. The top three industries in terms of trading volume were park infrastructure, warehousing and logistics, and transportation infrastructure. The top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were warehousing and logistics, energy infrastructure, and park infrastructure. Among block trading, Friday had the highest block trading volume, and the top three REITs in terms of block trading turnover were Cinda Principal Agricultural REIT, CITIC Construction Mingyang Smart New Energy REIT, and ICBC Hebei Highway REIT [16]. Secondary Market Valuation - **P/FFO and P/NAV**: Many REITs had a dynamic P/FFO lower than the industry average. The top three undervalued REITs by P/NAV were Huaxia Yuexiu REIT, GF Chengdu High - tech Industrial Park REIT, and Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Highway REIT. The top three in terms of expected cash distribution rate were E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT, Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo REIT, and Guojin China Railway Construction REIT [19]. - **IRR Ranking**: As of this Friday, the top three products in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) were Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT, and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, with corresponding IRRs of 11.28%, 11.07%, and 8.46% respectively [21]. Market Correlation Statistics - **Correlation with Major Asset Classes**: This week, REITs had the highest correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite Index (0.21), followed by CSI 300 (0.19), ChiNext Index (0.12), small and medium - cap stocks (0.18), CSI Convertible Bond Index (0.19), CSI All - Bond Index (0.06), gold (0.04), and crude oil index (0.09) [25]. - **Correlation of Different Types of REITs**: Different types of REITs (equity - type, concession - type, and various industry - type REITs) had different correlation coefficients with major asset classes [27]. Primary Market Tracking As of August 1, 2025, there were 11 REIT products in the exchange acceptance stage, 3 in the approved - to - be - listed state, and CICC Vipshop Outlets REIT was approved this week and was in the to - be - issued stage [5].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations also declining [1][12] - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [1][20] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has slightly decreased but remains at a high level since March, with trading heat in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, construction, consumer services, military, and communications above the 80th percentile [2][27] - Major indices have seen a decline in volatility, with most sectors' volatility below the 50th historical percentile [2][33] Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with specific sectors such as electric power and utilities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and real estate seeing upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][51] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have been lowered [3][51] Group 4: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there has been an overall net sell-off in A-shares, with a rise in the buy/sell ratio in sectors like pharmaceuticals, communications, and computers [5][31] - For stocks with Northbound holdings below 30 million shares, there has been a net buy in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in food and beverage, agriculture, and public utilities [5][33] Group 5: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has reached a new high for the year, with a net buy of 32.458 billion yuan, primarily in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and computers, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal saw net selling [6][11] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as communications, media, and transportation has increased [6][38] Group 6: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in communications, military, and steel sectors, while ETFs have experienced overall net redemptions [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth/value indices has risen, indicating a shift in investment strategies [8][48]

Group 1: US-EU Trade Agreement - The US and EU reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, while the EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products[2] - The agreement aims to fulfill multiple objectives for Trump, including fiscal, investment, industrial, and promotional goals, but its implementation remains uncertain due to lack of internal coordination within the EU[2] Group 2: US Tariff Structure - The US "reciprocal tariffs" categorize countries into four tiers: 10% for surplus countries like the UK, 15% for allies and developing economies, around 20% for countries with trade deficits like Vietnam, and over 25% for countries without agreements, such as Myanmar[2] - The implementation of these tariffs is set to take effect on August 1, with potential adjustments based on ongoing negotiations[2] Group 3: US-Russia Relations - The US threatens to impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, targeting primarily China and India, as Russia gains ground in the Ukraine conflict[3][4] - The US aims to leverage these tariffs to pressure China and India in trade negotiations, while also attempting to curb Russian military advances in Ukraine[3][4] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen Russia occupy significant territory, with a reported increase of 634 square kilometers in July alone, raising concerns for US and European interests[3][19] - The US's military response includes deploying nuclear submarines near Russia, indicating a heightened level of military deterrence amid escalating tensions[29] Group 5: Future Considerations - The likelihood of the secondary tariffs being implemented is low, with a more probable scenario being a delay or selective application of tariffs on specific products[24] - Key upcoming events include monitoring the implementation of the reciprocal tariffs and the potential for further deterioration in US-Russia relations, particularly by August 8[28]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly focusing on internet assets and traditional virtual asset companies, indicating a strong medium to long-term logic despite short-term adjustments [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a cautious approach as financial data and verification logic become critical with the onset of new earnings reports from overseas Chinese assets [9]. - It highlights the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, noting a temporary cooling but a long-term positive trajectory supported by regulatory developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong [9]. - The report identifies potential risks related to U.S.-China tariff issues and the need for vigilance regarding the performance of overseas Chinese assets [9]. Industry Summaries Education - The education index decreased by 0.49%, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index [10]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education reported mixed results, with New Oriental's revenue increasing by 9.4% year-on-year [24][10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying due to the recovery of smaller institutions, leading to a slowdown in growth for leading companies [4]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced challenges, with the S&P Global Luxury Goods Index dropping by 6.63% [20]. - Notable companies like Hermès and Prada showed varied performance, with Hermès reporting a 7% increase in revenue while Prada's growth was more modest at 9.1% [25][20]. Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, with Luckin Coffee reporting a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase [29]. - The tea beverage market is under pressure due to regulatory changes affecting promotional activities [4]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index down by 2.67% [32]. - Companies like Alibaba and Tencent reported declines in stock performance, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures [32]. Streaming Platforms - The media index fell by 1.9%, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music experiencing significant stock declines [36]. - Spotify's Q2 revenue growth was below expectations, indicating challenges in the streaming market [36]. Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 4.7%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices also declining [41]. - Regulatory developments, such as the SEC's "Project Crypto," are expected to shape the future of the virtual asset market positively [47]. Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions in major cities showed mixed results, with year-on-year changes in transaction volumes ranging from -17% in Beijing to 0% in Shenzhen [36]. Automotive Services - The automotive repair industry is projected to maintain a positive outlook, with a focus on the aftermarket ecosystem [4].