Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose [2][20] Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, military industry, public utilities, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [3][27] - Volatility has increased across major indices, with sectors like steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals showing volatility above the 80th percentile [3][33] - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceutical sectors are leading in research activity, with construction materials, computing, media, pharmaceuticals, and textiles showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously downgraded net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 [5][51] - The proportion of stocks with upgraded net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 has decreased across the A-share market [5][51] - Sectors such as computing, transportation, machinery, electricity, and public utilities have seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices for 2026/2027 have been upgraded [5][23] - Mid-cap/small-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have also seen their net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 upgraded [5][25] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded slightly, continuing to show a small net sell-off in A-shares [6][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for Northbound trading in sectors like telecommunications, electric new energy, and automobiles has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [6][32] - Northbound trading has mainly net bought in sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, and media, while net selling occurred in computing, military, and coal sectors [6][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly declined to the lowest point since mid-July 2025 [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing have been in oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in TMT, electric new energy, and banking sectors [6][39] - Only sectors like agriculture, textiles, and transportation have seen an increase in the proportion of financing purchases [6][38] Trading Heat on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading heat on the Dragon and Tiger list has decreased, with the total trading amount falling [7][41] - Sectors like oil and petrochemicals and agriculture have a relatively high trading amount on the Dragon and Tiger list, which is still on the rise [7][44] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have continued to reduce their positions, while ETFs have seen a net redemption, although the pace has noticeably slowed [8][45] - After excluding price fluctuation factors, active equity funds have mainly increased positions in oil and petrochemicals, military, and media sectors, while reducing positions in electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [8][47] - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has rebounded, with both active and passive new establishment scales increasing [8][50] - ETFs related to the CSI 500, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 have seen significant net redemptions, while ETFs tracking sectors like brokerages have been net subscribed [8][52]

- The report tracks the performance of major market indices, noting that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices had weekly changes of -1.54%, -1.07%, -3.44%, and -3.64%, respectively[13] - The report highlights the performance of various industry indices, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading with a 7.18% increase, followed by coal (3.50%) and utilities (2.88%), while the media sector experienced the largest decline at -6.96%[13] - The report discusses the rotation strategy for micro-cap stocks, noting that the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" is 2.53, which is above its 243-day moving average of 1.95, and the 20-day closing price slope of micro-cap stocks is positive at 0.14%, while the Mao Index slope is negative at -0.25%[17][18] - The report mentions that the M1 indicator's 6-month moving average has declined, leading to a mid-term rotation strategy shift from micro-cap stocks to the Mao Index[17] - The report evaluates the risk control signals for micro-cap stocks, noting that the volatility congestion rate is -2.53% and the 10-year government bond yield is 2.03%, both within controllable risk ranges[17] - The report provides a summary of the macroeconomic environment, highlighting the Chinese government's economic goals and policies, including a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% and a continuation of the 4% deficit rate and special government bond issuance framework[3][38] - The report discusses the global macroeconomic environment, noting the impact of geopolitical tensions and inflation risks, including the Middle East conflict and its effect on energy prices, and the mixed economic data from the US[4][39] - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in upstream resource stocks (oil, gold, industrial metals) and using high-dividend assets as a base to hedge against global macroeconomic volatility[4][39] - The report tracks the performance of quantitative stock selection factors, noting that value (20.68%), volatility (15.30%), and technical (9.22%) factors performed well, while consensus expectations and growth factors were relatively weak[55] - The report discusses the performance of convertible bond selection factors, noting that convertible bond valuation and underlying stock value achieved higher IC averages[66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the white liquor sector, indicating a potential for recovery and growth in the coming months, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai are primarily due to seasonal demand changes and market sentiment rather than significant supply-demand shifts. It suggests that the industry is in a phase of price stabilization and is expected to gradually transition to a bottoming phase [2][11]. - The white liquor sector is viewed as having considerable investment value, especially during periods of market volatility influenced by external risks. The report anticipates that demand indicators such as PPI and M1 will provide forward-looking signals for the sector [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning, recommending investments in high-end liquor brands and companies with strong distribution channels and innovative product offerings [3][12]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes that the price of Feitian Moutai has recently fluctuated, with a current price around 1600 yuan, reflecting typical seasonal patterns. The overall sentiment in the market is expected to stabilize as the industry approaches a low base period [2][11]. - It suggests that the white liquor industry is transitioning to a "bottoming out" phase, with potential improvements in consumer spending and corporate profitability expected to support this trend [12]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks. The report recommends continued attention to beer companies due to their solid performance and dividend levels [3][12]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is expanding with new channels and product innovations, maintaining high growth potential. The report recommends companies like Wancheng Group and Weilong for their strong market positions and product offerings [4][13]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is facing challenges due to seasonal sales declines and competition from ready-to-drink tea. However, companies like Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their potential in national expansion and brand development [4][13]. Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is stabilizing after a period of intense competition, with recommendations for companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Flavor Industry, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and market expansion [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes low valuation companies in the energy sector with a PE ratio below 20X for the 2026 profit forecast [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of "selling shovel" companies in the coal chemical sector, particularly in the context of fluctuating oil prices, which significantly impact the economic viability of coal chemical projects [3][13] - It identifies several key players in the energy engineering sector, including Donghua Technology, China Energy Engineering, and China Chemical, which are involved in significant projects and are expected to see revenue growth [3][13] - The report also discusses the energy materials sector, noting that companies like Keda Manufacturing and Changbao Co. are experiencing improvements due to unexpected changes in demand [4][14] - AI new materials are highlighted as having a price increase expectation, with specific references to electronic fabrics and copper foil, indicating a strong cycle of inflation in these sectors [4][14] Summary by Sections Energy Engineering - Focus on coal chemical projects, particularly coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-natural gas, with economic viability tied to oil prices above $80 per barrel [3][13] - Key companies include: - Donghua Technology: Expected revenue of 10 billion with a 13% increase in 2025 [3][13] - China Energy Engineering: Largest green hydrogen and ammonia project globally [3][13] - Other notable mentions include China Chemical, Sanwei Chemical, and local mining companies in Xinjiang [3][13] Energy Materials - Companies like Keda Manufacturing are benefiting from the growing demand for energy storage materials [4][14] - The report notes the potential for price increases in AI materials, particularly in electronic fabrics and copper foil, driven by ongoing inflationary pressures [4][14] Market Performance - The cement sector shows a national average price of 338 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 52 RMB/ton and a slight month-on-month decline [15][18] - The glass market sees a slight increase in prices, with the average price for float glass at 1174.93 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.89% increase [15][36] - The report indicates a mixed performance across various building materials, with the construction index down by 6.21% [18][24]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.21% to $12,869.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 2.76% to ¥101,100 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 8.56% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 20,920 tons [1] - Major cable enterprises' operating rate rose by 33.17 percentage points to 60.90%, indicating a recovery in production [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 9.22% to $3,431.0 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 3.69% to ¥24,700 per ton [2] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory was reported at 398,000 tons, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 2.90% to $5,181.3 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings dropping by 28.01 tons to 1,073.32 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks influenced the gold market, leading to a strong fluctuation pattern [3] - The 10-year TIPS rose by 0.04 percentage points to 1.80% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 4.54% this week [4] - The price center has been rising since the beginning of the year, likely related to upcoming supply-side documents for 2024-2025 [4] - The rare earth sector is expected to see a resonance in supply and demand due to ongoing supply reforms and more relaxed export expectations [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 16.72% this week, indicating a strong demand outlook [4] - Recent actions against illegal mining in Ganzhou may support tungsten prices [4] - The priority of tungsten is expected to be high due to increased strategic stockpiling overseas [4] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.0% to ¥159,800 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 0.6% to ¥161,000 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 22,600 tons, reflecting a slight rise [4] - The market is experiencing a strong purchasing intention from downstream material manufacturers despite price declines [4] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.7% to ¥431,500 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices saw a slight increase [4] - The supply side remains tight due to slow export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] - The market is currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with potential upward price movement expected as demand clarifies [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.4% to $17,500 per ton, while Shanghai nickel fell by 2.9% to ¥136,300 per ton [4] - Nickel inventory at LME decreased by 0.04 million tons to 287,600 tons [4] - The market is currently constrained by weak demand and high inventory levels, but strong bottom support is noted [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in this period rebounded by 5 percentage points to 56%. A few indicators' quantile values declined, while others rebounded to varying degrees. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and policy spread. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 20%. Among 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), in the neutral range increased to 11 (55%), and in the cold range decreased to 5 (25%). Some indicators changed their ranges [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading Rebound - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rebounded by 5 percentage points to 56% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of stock - bond ratio, TL/T long - short ratio, commodity ratio, and monetary tightness expectation decreased by 47, 28, 5, and 1 percentage points respectively. The quantile values of fund divergence, allocation power, and fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume increased significantly by 35, 20, and 35 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range Decreased - Among 20 micro - indicators, 4 were in the over - heated range (20%), 11 in the neutral range (55%), and 5 in the cold range (25%). TL/T long - short ratio and commodity ratio dropped from the over - heated to the neutral range; stock - bond ratio dropped from the over - heated to the cold range; full - market turnover rate, fund divergence, listed company wealth - management buying volume, and fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range; allocation power rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][19]. - **Full - market Turnover Rate Quantile Rebound**: In trading heat indicators, the proportion of those in the over - heated range dropped to 33%, in the neutral range rose to 50%, and in the cold range dropped to 17%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 28 percentage points to 60% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range, while the full - market turnover rate quantile increased by 15 percentage points to 52% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [6][20]. - **Fund - Small and Medium - Sized Bank Buying Volume Quantile Increase**: In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion in the over - heated range remained at 13%, in the neutral range rose to 63%, and in the cold range dropped to 25%. The quantile values of fund divergence, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and listed company wealth - management buying volume rebounded significantly by 35, 35, and 11 percentage points respectively and moved from the cold to the neutral range; the allocation power quantile continued to rise by 20 percentage points and moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [7][23]. - **Slight Narrowing of Policy Spread**: The policy spread fell by 2bp to - 4bp, and its quantile rose by 11 percentage points to 97%, remaining in the over - heated range. The credit spread rose by 1 percentage point to 50bp, the Agricultural Development - State Development spread was basically the same as the previous period, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread fell by 1bp to - 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, and its quantile rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 67%, still in the neutral range [8][32]. - **Significant Drop in Stock - Bond Ratio Quantile**: In comparison indicators, the proportion in the over - heated range dropped to 0%. The proportion in the cold range remained at 50%, and in the neutral range rose to 50%. The quantile values of stock - bond and commodity ratios dropped by 47 and 5 percentage points to 28% and 65% respectively, moving from the over - heated to the cold and neutral ranges respectively [9][32].

Group 1 - The bond market has shown resilience, with a trend of first declining and then recovering, driven by strong demand for coupon assets, leading to significant compression of spreads [12][13] - The performance of various bond types since March indicates that 5-year AAA urban investment bonds and medium-term notes have yielded 30 to 32 basis points, outperforming the 20 basis points from 10-year government bonds [12][20] - The capital gains from coupon assets have contributed to half of the overall returns, highlighting the aggressive buying behavior in the market [12][13] Group 2 - The concentration of funds in coupon assets was anticipated, but the depth of the market exceeded expectations, with the absolute returns and credit spreads nearing yearly lows [5][20] - The current market dynamics reveal a significant polarization in buying power, particularly in the 3 to 5-year segment of bonds, with public funds being the primary drivers of this trend [4][54] - The lack of clear macroeconomic guidance for long-term bonds has made betting on interest rates challenging, leading institutions to focus on enhancing coupon yields as a defensive strategy [5][31] Group 3 - The strategy execution suggests a notable deterioration in risk-reward ratios, with a recommendation to focus on short-duration bonds to mitigate potential drawdown risks [6][31] - For accounts with unstable liabilities, it is advised to consider high-quality urban investment bonds with a maturity of 2 years or less, despite their lower absolute yields [6][31] - The recommendation for longer-duration credit bonds is to maintain a strict yield threshold of above 2%, indicating a cautious approach to investment in this segment [6][31] Group 4 - The current market structure indicates a significant shift towards public funds, with net purchases of 3 to 5-year bonds reaching 547 billion yuan, surpassing previous bull market levels [4][52] - The buying behavior of public funds has shown a rare characteristic of one-sided net inflows, with minimal profit-taking actions observed [52][54] - The ongoing trend of public funds focusing on 3 to 5-year bonds reflects a search for yield in a low-return environment, further emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation [54][31]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes low valuation companies in the energy sector, particularly those with a projected PE ratio under 20X for 2026 [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of "selling shovel" companies in the coal chemical sector, which includes coal-to-olefins, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-natural gas, particularly in the context of fluctuating oil prices [3][13] - The report identifies several key companies in the energy engineering and materials sectors that are expected to benefit from these trends, including Donghua Technology, China Energy Engineering, and others [3][4][14] Summary by Sections Energy Engineering - Focus on coal chemical projects, with economic viability linked to oil prices above $80 per barrel, particularly in Xinjiang [3] - Key companies include: - Donghua Technology: Expected revenue of 10 billion with a 13% YoY increase and net profit of 533 million with a nearly 30% increase by 2025 [3] - China Energy Engineering: Involved in the world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia project [3] - Other notable companies include China Chemical, Sanwei Chemical, and local explosives firms [3] Energy Materials - Companies in this sector are experiencing improvements ahead of traditional industries due to unexpected changes [4] - Key players include: - Keda Manufacturing: Focused on negative electrode materials for energy storage [4] - Changbao Co. and Boying Welding: Engaged in HRSG, a core component for gas turbines [4] - China Jushi and China National Materials: Noted for growth in wind power fiber [4] AI New Materials - Price increase expectations are materializing, particularly for electronic fabrics and copper foil [4] - Companies to watch include China Jushi, Tongguan Copper Foil, and others involved in AI-related materials [4] Market Performance - Cement prices averaged 338 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB YoY, with a national average shipment rate of 15.1% [15] - Float glass prices increased to 1174.93 RMB/ton, with a slight rise in inventory days [15][36] - The report notes a general decline in construction material indices, with a significant drop in various sectors [18] Price Changes - Cement prices are expected to stabilize as demand gradually recovers, with a current inventory ratio of 62.88% [26] - Float glass market remains under pressure with high inventory levels and limited new orders [36][47]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 9.61% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 5.85 percentage points and 9.61 percentage points respectively [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, influenced by supply-side reforms and upcoming regulatory documents for 2024-2025. The processing fees for certain rare earth minerals have increased, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation and optimization [2][16][17]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to potential export bans from Indonesia, which could create significant restocking demand in the processing sector. The long-term outlook for tin remains positive, supported by advancements in AI and the automotive sector [3][26]. - Tungsten prices have surged significantly, driven by both civilian and military demand. The report notes that recent government actions to combat illegal mining may further support tungsten prices [3][38]. - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover as exports stabilize, with a noted increase in domestic demand. The report suggests that resource scarcity and reduced global supply will continue to drive prices upward [4][45]. - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing and are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased defense spending, which could benefit quality resource companies [5][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 43,063.68 points, reflecting a 9.61% increase [1][12]. - Prices for various metals showed significant changes, with rare earth oxides and tungsten experiencing notable increases [15]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 850,200 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.04%. Dysprosium oxide is priced at 1,490,000 CNY/ton, up by 2.76%, while terbium oxide decreased by 2.79% to 6,280,000 CNY/ton [2][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Rare Earth, Zhong Rare Metals, and Northern Rare Earth due to their strong market positions and benefits from supply-side reforms [2][17]. Tin - Tin ingot prices are at 400,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.82% increase. The report emphasizes the potential for price increases due to export restrictions from Indonesia [3][26]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices have risen to 907,700 CNY/ton, a 30.29% increase, while ammonium paratungstate is at 1,335,400 CNY/ton, also up by 30.25% [3][38]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices are at 172,100 CNY/ton, up by 4.21%, with antimony concentrate at 146,100 CNY/ton, up by 1.40%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports leading to price increases [4][45]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate is priced at 4,450 CNY/ton, with a 7.23% increase, and molybdenum iron at 281,000 CNY/ton, up by 6.44% [5][49]. 3. Price Trends and Forecasts - The report provides detailed price trends for various metals, indicating a generally upward trajectory for most small metals due to supply constraints and increasing demand across sectors [15][16].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.21% to $12,869.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 2.76% to ¥101,100 per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 8.56% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 20,920 tons [1][12] - Major cable enterprises' operating rate rose by 33.17 percentage points to 60.90%, indicating a recovery in production [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 9.22% to $3,431.0 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 3.69% to ¥24,700 per ton [2][13] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory was reported at 398,000 tons, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing [2][13] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [2][13] Group 3: Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 2.90% to $5,181.3 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 28.01 tons to 1,073.32 tons [3][14] - The market is experiencing strong fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and Israel [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 4.54% this week [3][35] - The industry is expected to see a positive supply-demand resonance due to ongoing supply-side reforms and more relaxed export expectations [3][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [3][35] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 16.72% this week, indicating strong demand [3][39] - Recent actions against illegal mining in Ganzhou may support tungsten prices [3][39] - The supply-demand fundamentals for tungsten are showing strong resonance [3][39] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.0% to ¥159,800 per ton [3][60] - Lithium production increased to 22,600 tons this week, reflecting a slight rise [3][60] - The market is experiencing strong purchasing intentions from downstream material manufacturers despite price declines [3][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.7% to ¥431,500 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices saw a slight increase [3][61] - The supply side remains tight due to slow export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][61] - The market is currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with potential for price increases as demand stabilizes [3][62] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.4% to $17,500 per ton, with Shanghai nickel down by 2.9% to ¥136,300 per ton [3][62] - Nickel inventory at LME decreased by 0.04 million tons to 287,600 tons [3][62] - The market is facing weak demand and high inventory, but there is strong bottom support for prices [3][62]