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农林牧渔行业周报:政策驱动生猪产能调控,重视板块预期差-20250914
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 11:57
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture sector, particularly in livestock and planting industries, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][24]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.81% [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of improved profitability in the medium term due to controlled production capacity [24]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices but is expected to recover as consumer demand improves [39]. - The beef and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices and a potential new cycle in beef production [40]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with government support and potential improvements in crop yields due to external factors [46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture index closed at 3103.24 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.81%, outperforming major indices [2][17]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week, with a slight increase in average weight at 128.32 kg/head [23][24]. - The report anticipates a short-term price stabilization but warns of potential downward pressure due to supply increases [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 2.09% week-on-week [39]. - The report notes that the poultry sector is under pressure but expects recovery with improved consumer demand [39]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.29 yuan/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the beef market [40]. - The report suggests that the dairy sector may see price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [40]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2302.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if crop yields are affected by external factors [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [64]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with various fish prices remaining stable or slightly increasing [64].
公用环保行业周报:新能源机制电价竞价的山东范本-20250914
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 11:54
Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand balance and favorable competition dynamics, particularly recommending companies like Sheneng Co. and Huadian International for thermal power, and Yangtze Power for hydropower [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent auction results for renewable energy pricing in Shandong, indicating a total of 94.67 billion kWh of selected projects, with wind power accounting for 59.67 billion kWh and solar power for 12.48 billion kWh [6][32] - It notes that the winning bid price for wind power was 0.319 yuan/kWh, which is an 8.9% discount from the auction ceiling, while solar power had a winning bid of 0.225 yuan/kWh, reflecting a 35.7% discount [6][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new market mechanisms being developed for renewable energy, including the support for a spot market for electricity [6][57] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.86% while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.16% during the week of September 8-12 [12] - The carbon neutrality sector rose by 2.25%, while the coal sector saw a slight decline of 0.11% [12] Industry News - The report discusses the new guidelines for the continuous operation of electricity spot markets, which aim to enhance market competition and system operation [57] - It also mentions the new action plan for large-scale construction of new energy storage, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 million kW by 2027, with direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [58] Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends focusing on leading companies in regions with tight supply-demand dynamics, such as Anhui Energy and Huadian International [62] - In hydropower, it suggests monitoring Yangtze Power due to stable electricity prices and regional supply-demand tightness [62] - For nuclear power, it highlights China National Nuclear Power as a key player due to expected increases in electricity generation and stable pricing [62] - In the renewable energy sector, it recommends Longyuan Power as a leading wind power operator [63] - The report also suggests focusing on urban comprehensive operation management service providers like Yuhua Tian [63]
传媒互联网产业行业周报:重估海外中国资产的情绪浓烈-20250914
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 11:33
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on overseas Chinese assets, particularly in the internet technology and virtual asset sectors, indicating a potential investment opportunity in these areas [10][15]. Core Insights - The sentiment for re-evaluating overseas Chinese assets is strong, driven by better-than-expected performance from companies like Alibaba in AI and technology sectors, attracting renewed interest from overseas investors [10][15]. - The report highlights various sectors including education, luxury goods, coffee and tea, e-commerce, streaming platforms, virtual assets, real estate transactions, and automotive services, each showing distinct trends and investment opportunities [4][11][19][22][28][33][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Education - The Chinese education index rose by 3.17% from September 8 to September 12, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [11]. - Notable stock performances include Yuhua Education (+46.00%), Zhongjiao Holdings (+24.56%), and Minsheng Education (+23.21%) [11][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index decreased by 0.64%, while the MSCI European Luxury Goods Index increased by 0.63% [19]. - Key stocks include Samsonite (-1.82%) and Prada (+2.19%) [19]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The Hang Seng Non-Essential Consumer Index increased by 5.61%, with Luckin Coffee showing a rise of 6.14% [22]. - The report notes a competitive landscape with brands like Moutai and others experiencing varied performance [22][24]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 7.56%, with Alibaba and JD.com showing significant gains of 14.64% and 7.86%, respectively [28]. - The report mentions regulatory scrutiny on delivery platforms to control subsidies and maintain fair pricing [32]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index increased by 7.3%, with notable performances from NetEase Cloud Music (+7.83%) and Tencent Music (+2.08%) [33]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the streaming sector driven by new content initiatives [38]. 6. Virtual Assets - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $416.96 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 5.0% and 9.3%, respectively [38][39]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets supported by regulatory developments and institutional interest [44]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - The report provides data on second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [32][46]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a significant price drop in new cars, with an average reduction of 17,000 yuan, reflecting competitive dynamics in the automotive market [4].
房地产行业研究:新房项目去化率有所提升,居民中长贷弱修复
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 10:43
行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周(9.6-9.12)申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+6%,在各板块中 位列第 2;恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+5.7%,在各板块中位列第 3。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为+7.5%, 恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+3.4%,沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+1.4%;物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收 益分别为+4.1%和+6.1%。 土地市场溢价率有所回升。本周(9.6-9.12)全国 300 城宅地成交建面 621 万㎡,单周环比-35%,单周同比-53%, 平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今,全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 26366 万㎡,累计同比-8.4%;年初至今,中海地产、 绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(9.6-9.12)47 个城市商品房销售 287 万方,成交量环比-14%,同比-4%,整体维持季节性低位;7 月新房售 价环比-0.3%,环比跌幅持平,同比-3.4%,同比降幅持续收窄;结合量价,景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看:一线 城市周环比-11%,周同比+1%;二线城市周 ...
A股策略周报20250914:转换的真相-20250914
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 10:27
Group 1 - The report indicates a shift in market logic, moving from a focus solely on AI trends to a broader consideration of macroeconomic fundamentals and recovery [3][12][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed previous highs, while the TMT sector has not reached new highs, suggesting a market expansion into other sectors such as real estate, steel, and non-ferrous metals [3][12][17] - Historical comparisons are made to the market trends of 2020-2021, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying logic of market transitions rather than merely focusing on growth versus value styles [3][12][13] Group 2 - Recent data shows resilience in non-US exports and a recovery in profit margins within the midstream manufacturing sector, indicating a positive trend in China's economic activity [4][20][25] - In August 2025, China's export growth was 4.4%, primarily affected by a decline in exports to the US, while exports to the EU and ASEAN continued to improve [4][20][24] - The report notes a structural improvement in inflation data, with core CPI showing a rebound, suggesting a potential reversal of the capital outflow that has previously contributed to price declines [4][25][31] Group 3 - The report highlights an increased expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market sentiment shifting towards a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery [5][34][37] - Employment data in the US indicates rising risks, with significant downward revisions to non-farm payrolls and an increase in initial jobless claims, suggesting a cautious outlook for the labor market [5][34][36] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate both manufacturing and real estate investments, with historical trends indicating a rebound in these sectors following previous rate cuts [5][44][47] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the main drivers of market transitions are changes in underlying logic rather than traditional style shifts, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic recovery and global demand [6][51] - Key sectors identified for investment include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (lithium batteries, wind power equipment, engineering machinery), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [6][51] - The report also points to emerging opportunities in domestic consumption-related sectors such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance, as profit recovery takes hold [6][51]
盈趣科技(002925):新烟格局生变成长加速,紧抓AI+消费时代新机遇
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 08:12
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 21.22 CNY per share based on a 30X PE for 2026 [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established comprehensive strategic partnerships with global clients such as PMI and Logitech, integrating multiple business segments including smart control components, innovative consumer electronics, health environment, and automotive electronics [3]. - The company has adopted an innovative UDM model, enhancing its competitive barriers through overseas capacity expansion and a dual strategy of "big triangle + small triangle" [3]. - The company plans to raise up to 800 million CNY through a private placement to fund the construction of manufacturing bases in Malaysia and Mexico, as well as to expand health environment product capacity and upgrade its R&D center [3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) market remains robust, with PMI maintaining over 70% market share globally, and the company is expected to benefit from increased demand and a favorable supply chain position [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. UDM System Achievements - The company has transitioned from a single product focus to a diversified growth strategy, leveraging its UDM model to enhance customer satisfaction and build strong partnerships with major clients [16][17]. - The UDM model integrates a unified management system with intelligent manufacturing, allowing for high flexibility and traceability, which improves client relationships [28][30]. 2. HNB Market Dynamics - The global shift towards new tobacco products is evident, with the HNB market expected to grow significantly, driven by consumer health concerns and PMI's established market position [40][43]. - PMI's early investments in HNB technology have created substantial barriers to entry for competitors, solidifying its market leadership [46][47]. 3. Diverse Business Growth - The company is experiencing growth across various segments, including innovative consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and health environment products, with strategic partnerships enhancing its market position [4][20]. - The automotive electronics sector is particularly promising, with the company entering the supply chains of major domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers [4][20]. 4. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.498 billion CNY, 5.669 billion CNY, and 7.099 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.91%, 26.03%, and 25.21% respectively [5][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 405 million CNY, 550 million CNY, and 703 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 61.09%, 35.75%, and 27.89% [5][9].
松下“马九”覆铜板性能再上台阶,引领电子树脂材料升级换代
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-12 08:01
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating a potential increase in investment opportunities due to advancements in high-frequency and high-speed resin materials [5]. Core Insights - Panasonic's MEGTRON9 copper-clad laminate shows significant improvements in dielectric performance, leading to a new revolution in high-speed bandwidth with single-channel interface speeds reaching 224Gbps [1][14]. - The domestic hydrogenated resin industry is gradually developing, with companies like Dongcai Technology and Shiming Technology making strides in production capacity [2][19]. - The introduction of new special hydrogenated resins, such as anthracene resin, demonstrates excellent dielectric properties, making it a suitable material for MEGTRON9 [2][21]. - The BCB resin, facing long-term technological barriers, is seeing domestic production efforts that aim to break the monopoly of foreign companies [3][25]. - ASIC chips are highlighted as a cost-effective choice for AI development, requiring high-performance resin materials similar to those needed for top-tier GPU chips [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. MEGTRON9 Copper-Clad Laminate Performance - The MEGTRON9 laminate from Panasonic significantly reduces circuit loss compared to the M8 version, especially under high-frequency conditions [1][14]. - The dielectric loss factor (Df) of M9 is lower than that of M8, indicating a need for upgraded resin materials to meet performance demands [1][17]. 2. Domestic Hydrogenated Resin Development - The domestic hydrogenated resin industry is in the early stages, with companies like Dongcai Technology planning to build a production capacity of 3,500 tons/year [2][19]. - Anthracene resin has been successfully produced domestically, showcasing low Df values and excellent dielectric properties [2][21]. 3. BCB Resin Production - BCB resin is being developed domestically to overcome the technological barriers imposed by foreign companies, with a production line expected to launch soon [3][25]. 4. ASIC Chips in AI Development - ASIC chips are identified as a more cost-effective solution for AI applications compared to high-end GPUs, with significant advantages in performance and power efficiency [4][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies like Dongcai Technology and Meilian New Materials are recommended for their leading positions in the electronic resin sector and their advancements in hydrogenated resin production [5][32][40].
8月审批视角看城投:弱资质区县城投审批收紧
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-11 15:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the approval of urban investment bonds was characterized by a slight decline in registration quotas, a significant slowdown in the approval pace, especially in weakly - qualified districts and counties, and a decrease in the scale of terminated issuances. The supply of urban investment bonds is unlikely to "surge", and the demand for high - quality urban investment bonds is strong. The credit stratification trend will continue to deepen, and future approval policies are expected to remain strict, promoting the market - oriented transformation of urban investment companies [6][49]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Registration Situation: Slight Decline in Urban Investment Registration Quotas - Overall, the registration quota of urban investment platforms slightly declined in August. The registration scale of the exchange increased significantly, while that of DCM decreased significantly. The planned issuance scale of urban investment bonds registered on the exchange was 214.6 billion yuan, up from 178.9 billion yuan, and that of DCM was 163.8 billion yuan, down from 204.2 billion yuan [12]. - By administrative level, the registration scales of provincial and district - county - level urban investment decreased significantly. The planned issuance scale of provincial urban investment registration projects dropped from 98.3 billion yuan to 76.8 billion yuan, and that of district - county - level dropped from 171.3 billion yuan to 133 billion yuan. The three - month moving average proportion of district - county - level urban investment bonds among all administrative levels decreased to 44% for the fifth consecutive month [15]. - By district - county qualification, the registration scale of weakly - qualified districts and counties decreased. The registration scale of district - level platform bonds with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan was 50.2 billion yuan, down from 59.9 billion yuan, and the three - month moving average proportion continued to rise to 37.5% [18]. - By province, the scale of regions such as Sichuan, Anhui, and Guangdong increased significantly month - on - month, while that of Shandong, Chongqing, and Jiangxi decreased significantly. The scale of Hunan continued to decline, and the decline in Shandong mainly came from the district - county level. The scale growth in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Guangdong was significant, and the growth in Zhejiang and Anhui mainly occurred at the prefecture - level city level [20]. 3.2 Approval Feedback: Significant Slowdown in Weakly - Qualified Districts and Counties - In August, the DCM approval pace of urban investment bonds slightly accelerated, while the exchange approval pace slowed down slightly. The number of valid sample bonds registered with DCM was 439, a significant increase from the previous month, and that of the exchange was 94, a certain decrease from the previous month. The average number of feedbacks from DCM was 2.4 times, down from 2.5 times, and that of the exchange was 4.4 times, up from 4.0 times. The average feedback days of DCM decreased to 41.0 days, down from 41.2 days, and that of the exchange increased to 80.1 days, up from 71.6 days [25]. - By issuance method and level, the feedback time of private urban investment corporate bonds changed significantly, with that of prefecture - level cities shortening significantly and that of district - county - level cities lengthening significantly. In publicly - offered urban investment corporate bonds, the feedback time of prefecture - level cities was significantly extended, and that of district - county - level cities was significantly shortened [29]. - By province, the approval pace in Chongqing, Tianjin, and Beijing accelerated significantly. The approval speed in Sichuan and Tianjin accelerated significantly, and the approval speed in Chongqing, Tianjin, and Beijing continued to improve. The approval feedback days in Anhui, Shanxi, and Hubei were significantly extended, and the approval speed in Shaanxi continued to slow down. By administrative level, the approval pace of prefecture - level platforms in Sichuan accelerated significantly, while that of district - county - level platforms in Anhui slowed down significantly [33]. - By district - county qualification, the approval pace of bonds issued by weakly - qualified district - county platforms slowed down significantly. In August, the feedback days of district platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan were 118.1 days, up from 60.3 days, much higher than the average of last year. The approval pace of bonds issued by district platforms with a general budget revenue of 5 - 10 billion yuan accelerated, while that of platforms with a general budget revenue of 10 - 30 billion yuan slowed down significantly [36]. 3.3 Terminated Issuance: Significant Decline in Terminated Project Scale - In August, the scale of terminated projects decreased significantly. The planned issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds dropped from 23 billion yuan to 11 billion yuan, and the number of terminated projects decreased from 17 to 8. The terminated scale of district - county - level urban investment bonds decreased significantly, and its three - month moving average proportion dropped to 58%. The scale of terminated projects at the municipal level increased significantly, and there were no terminated projects at the provincial level. The three - month moving average proportion of terminated projects in weakly - qualified districts and counties (with a local budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan) rose to 53.7% [38]. - By province, the terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Shandong and Hebei. The scale of terminated projects of urban investment platforms in Shandong and Hebei was relatively large, mainly affected by prefecture - level platforms [46].
9月11日信用债异常成交跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-11 15:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Railway MTN004B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Quwenkong MTN001" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the secondary and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond 01" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0, 5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - to 4 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted trades; the trading terms of secondary and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted trades was relatively high for all terms. In terms of industries, the bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - "24 Railway MTN004B" had a remaining term of 28.75 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.67%, a valuation net price of 104.85 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of 3.29 bp, a valuation yield of 2.37%, and a trading volume of 24,042 yuan. It belonged to the transportation industry with an implied rating of AAA+ and a subject rating of AAA [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - "25 Quwenkong MTN001" had a remaining term of 4.93 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.32%, a valuation net price of 100.14 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 7.23 bp, a valuation yield of 3.87%, and a trading volume of 5,989 yuan. It belonged to the urban investment industry with an implied rating of AA(2) and a subject rating of AAA [6]. 3.3 Tracking of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Trading - "23 Hankou Bank Secondary Capital Bond 02" had a remaining term of 3.24 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 106.31 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.50 bp, a valuation yield of 2.35%, and a trading volume of 21,231 yuan. It was a city - commercial bank bond with an implied rating of AA - and a subject rating of AA+ [7]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Trading - "25 Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond 01" had a remaining term of 4.87 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 98.36 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.27 bp, a valuation yield of 2.13%, and a trading volume of 983 yuan. It was a rural - commercial bank bond with an implied rating of AA and a subject rating of AA+ [8]. 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 5% - "22 Vanke 07" had a remaining term of 0.14 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 99.73 yuan, a valuation yield deviation of - 0.62 bp, a valuation yield of 5.26%, and a trading volume of 2,569 yuan. It belonged to the real - estate industry with an implied rating of AA+ and a subject rating of AAA [9]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0, 5] range [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Trading Terms of Non - Financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - to 4 - year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discounted trades [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Trading Terms of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of secondary and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and the proportion of discounted trades was relatively high for all terms [2]. 3.9 Proportion and Trading Volume of Discounted Trades of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The bonds in the petroleum and petrochemical industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].
债市基本面高频数据跟踪:2025年9月第1周:钢材库存压力上升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 15:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure 3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38]. 3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49]. 3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].