公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 Mobileye（MBLY.US）：3Q24 营收表现略 超预期，下游库存继续走向正常化 维持 Mobileye（MBLY.US）目标价 16.2 美元，潜在升幅 19%，对应 2025 年调整后目标市盈率 35.9x；维持"买入"评级。 维持 Mobileye"买入"评级：Mobileye 三季度收入 4.86 亿美元，同 比下降 8%，环比增长 11%，营收表现好于一致预测和我们的预期。公 司三季度经营现金流 1.26 亿美元，预计后续仍将保持强劲。考虑到公 司将在近两年内持续对于包括 AI 在内的相关技术进行研发投入，我们 下调 2024-2026 年公司盈利预测。但同时，我们对于公司的技术实力 保持信心，定点项目后续的大规模放量有望带动公司收入和利润显著 成长。因此，我们维持 Mobileye 的"买入"评级。 下游的 Tier 1、OEM 库存仍处于正常化进程中，EyeQ 出货量环比持 续改善：三季度Mobileye整体系统出货量达860万套（其中SuperVi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto [1][2] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to USD 30.8, representing a potential upside of 23% [1] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is increased to HKD 120.0, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's vehicle delivery momentum is sustained, driven by the L6 model, with projected sales of 507,000 units in 2024 and 700,000 units in 2025, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][2] - The company's profitability significantly improved in Q3, with expectations for continued profit growth through 2025, positioning it as a leader in profitability among new energy vehicle companies [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capture additional market share in pure electric models by 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 42.874 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.225 billion, up 21% year-over-year and 49% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Operating profit increased by 47% year-over-year and 633% quarter-over-quarter, reaching RMB 3.433 billion [9] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.814 billion, approximately flat year-over-year but up 155% from the previous quarter [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, slightly down from 22.0% year-over-year but improved from 19.5% quarter-over-quarter [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 146.396 billion, with a growth rate of 18% [11] - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 30.431 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% [11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 12.534 billion, with a net margin of 6.3% [11] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5x for automotive sales and 17.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of USD 30.8 for Li Auto [3][13] - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for 2025 [3][13]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 比亚迪股份 （1211.HK） /比亚迪 （ 002594.CH） 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 比亚迪股份（1211.HK）/比亚迪（002594.CH）： 新能源车销量大幅成长，带动利润释放 我们重申比亚迪的"买入"评级。上调比亚迪 2024/2025 年盈利预测， 上调比亚迪股份（1211.HK）目标价至 335.0 港元，潜在升幅 21%；上 调比亚迪（002594.CH）目标价至人民币 357.7 元，潜在升幅 23%。 重申比亚迪的"买入"评级：年初至今比亚迪新能源车销量总体增长 强劲，利润逐季释放。我们预计比亚迪今年和明年新能源车销量有望 站上 400 万辆和 500 万辆，且确定性较高。比亚迪有望继续享受插混 车型，尤其是 10 万元至 20 万元价格段的需求增量。并且，随着规模 效应持续体现，比亚迪有继续抢夺份额和释放利润的能力。目前公司 港股和 A 股的市盈率为 17.2x 和 18.7x，估值具备上移的基础。因此， 我们对比亚迪保持乐观判断。 三季度单车盈利持续改善，10 月新能源销量创历史新高：三季度比亚 迪收入达到人民币 2,011 亿元，同比增长 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 锦江酒店 股价表现 （600754.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 锦江酒店（600754.CH）：3Q24 业绩低于预期， 境内业务承压，但开店目标有望超额达成 3Q24 公司实现营业收入人民币 38.98 亿元，同比下降 7.1%，实现 归母净利润 2.6 亿元，同比下跌 43.1%。归母净利润大幅下降主要 是因为（1）去年同期疫后出行需求旺盛，而今年趋于平稳，导致境 内 RevPAR 同比下降；（2）负向经营杠杆；（3）一次性因素：去年 同期录得租赁补偿金，及有效税率本期提升至 43.6%。我们认为公 司要完成全年股权激励目标有一定难度，因此下调 2024E-2026E 盈 利预测。我们基于公司快速拓店和以增资和贷款置换等举措缓解未 来财务费用压力的预期，上调目标价至人民币 28.1 元（9x2025E EV/EBITDA），维持锦江酒店"持有"评级。 3Q24 境内业务 RevPAR 持续承压：去年疫后暑期出行意愿旺盛，因 此在高基数下，锦江酒店 3Q24 境内业务中全服务型酒店以及有限服 务酒店 RevPAR 分别同比下降 18.2%以及 8.4%。这主要是由于平均 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 微软（MSFT.US）：业绩略超预期，云 业务收入指引放缓 业绩略超市场预期：公司 FY25Q1 收入 656 亿美元，同比增长 16%，略 超市场预期 2%；分部业务来看，生产力与企业流程（PBP）收入同比 增长 12%，智能云业务同比增长 20%，个人计算同比增长 17%；每股 收益 3.3 美元，同比增长 10%，好于市场预期。公司毛利率 69%，同比 下降 2 个百分点，主要由于加大基础设施投入导致云业务毛利率下降。 整体稳健，云业务指引增速放缓：FY25Q1智能云业务收入241亿美元， 同比增长 20%，其中 Azure 及其他同比增长 33%，较上一季度略有下 降，但好于先前指引（28%~29%）。公司预计 Azure 下一季度同比增长 31%~32%，考虑到在持续加大 AI 投入的背景下，云业务收入增速进一 步放缓，略显失望。PBP 业务收入 283 亿美元，同比增长 12%，相对 稳健：其中 office 商业产品同比增长 13%，Office 消费者产品同比增长 5%，LinkedIn 同比增长 10%，Dynamics 同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a target price of HKD 9.85, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% from the current price of HKD 8.11 [4][21]. Core Views - Short-term performance is expected to be challenging due to a decline in consumer spending in the Chinese beer market, with a projected 9.4% year-on-year decrease in overall organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by an 11.4% drop in sales volume [2][10]. - Despite short-term difficulties, the long-term outlook remains positive due to Budweiser APAC's strong product and brand mix in the premium and super-premium segments, which could provide significant earnings elasticity as consumer spending recovers [2][11]. - The company's current valuation is considered attractive, and its strong management capabilities and backing from AB InBev enhance its appeal to foreign investors [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a 9.4% decline in organic revenue, with sales volume down 11.4% and a slight average price increase of 2.2% [2][10]. - The normalized EBITDA decreased by 16.6% year-on-year, reflecting the negative operating leverage from the significant revenue drop [10][11]. - The company anticipates that the downward trend in revenue and EBITDA will likely continue into Q4 2024 [2][11]. Market Analysis - In the Chinese market, Q3 2024 sales volume fell by 14.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of on-premise sales channels, which were more adversely affected than off-premise channels [2][11]. - The management noted that there has been no significant impact from policy stimulus on beer demand in Q4 2024, suggesting continued pressure on sales and average pricing [2][11]. - Conversely, the South Korean market showed resilience with a double-digit year-on-year growth in organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by price increases and improved product mix [12][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC are expected to decline to USD 6.245 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][18]. - The net profit is projected to drop to USD 700 million in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 17.8% [3][18]. - The report highlights a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.6x for 2024, which is expected to improve to 15.3x by 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3][18].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 首旅酒店（600258.CH）：高基数下 3Q24 RevPAR 承压，门店结构优化布局长期改善 受到去年暑期高基数影响，首旅酒店 3Q24 RevPAR 同比下降 7.8%，主 要是 ADR 同比下降 5.5%引致。RevPAR 的大幅同比下降导致 3Q24 收 入同比下滑 6.4%，毛利率同比下滑 2.3ppt。公司加强营销举措以及加 大门店开发力度，导致销售费用率同比增长 1.3ppt，令经营利润率同 比下降 2.1ppt 至 25.4%。尽管今年业绩仍旧承压，但根据 2025 年更为 快速的开店预期，我们调整 2024-2026E 盈利预测，维持首旅酒店"持 有"评级，并上调目标价至人民币 15.5 元。 高基数下 RevPAR 下降带动收入同比下滑：从标准店的经营情况来看， 由于上年暑期出行需求较高使上年同期基数较高，令首旅酒店 3Q24 RevPAR（不含轻管理酒店）同比下降 6%。RevPAR 的下滑主要是平均 房价的 3Q24 相较去年同期较高水平回调，ADR 同比降低 4.7%，但由 于暑期出行需求旺盛，出租率同比下跌 1ppt。如包 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The revenue outlook for the company remains unclear, and the valuation is considered to be low in terms of cost-effectiveness [2] - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 8.5% year-on-year, slightly better than expectations, but concerns about future performance persist [2] - The profit margin expansion in Q3 2024 was primarily due to a significant decline in raw milk prices, a trend that is not expected to be sustainable [2] - Weak terminal demand for liquid milk continues, with no significant improvement in consumer willingness to purchase [2] - The company has seen a substantial increase in sales expense ratio over three consecutive quarters, indicating limited room for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 123.171 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, while 2023 revenue is projected at CNY 126.179 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.4% [3][6] - The company’s net profit for 2022 was CNY 9.431 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and is expected to reach CNY 10.429 billion in 2023, a growth of 10.6% [3][6] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 15.7x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical performance [3][6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 expanded by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and the end of inventory clearance [2][6] Market Expectations - The target price for the company is set at CNY 32.1, representing a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of CNY 27.9 [4][5] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately CNY 177.674 billion, with an average trading volume of CNY 1.7163 billion over the past three months [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Huaxi Biotech (688363 CH) with a target price of RMB 62 1, implying a potential upside of 3 7% from the current price of RMB 59 9 [2][9] Core Views - Huaxi Biotech's functional skincare business and management restructuring are still ongoing, leading to a 7 1% YoY decline in 3Q24 revenue and a 77% YoY drop in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company's skincare business is expected to take a longer time to complete its transformation, with 3Q24 skincare revenue down 22% YoY, though the decline narrowed from 1H24 (-30%) [1] - The medical aesthetics business is driving growth, with 3Q24 revenue up 10% YoY, supported by new product launches and clear channel strategies [1] - Management expenses rose significantly in 3Q24 due to increased backend costs and consulting fees, leading to a 5 1ppt decline in core operating profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 5,741 million, down 5 5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decline 30 6% YoY to RMB 411 million [4][5] - The company's gross margin improved to 72 4% in 3Q24, up 1 3ppt YoY, driven by higher-margin medical aesthetics products [1] - Operating cash flow is expected to improve, with 2024E operating cash flow projected at RMB 917 million, up from RMB 700 million in 2023 [6] Business Segments - Skincare business: Revenue declined 22% YoY in 3Q24, but the company has launched new products focusing on functional sugar and cell biology, aiming to stabilize Q4 revenue [1] - Medical aesthetics business: Revenue grew 10% YoY in 3Q24, with new products expected to drive further growth in 2025 [1] - Raw materials business: Revenue remained flat in 3Q24, while the medical terminal business became the only growth driver [1] Valuation and Market Performance - The target price of RMB 62 1 is based on an upward revision due to the rising valuation center of the cosmetics industry [1] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 70 1x, reflecting the market's expectation of future growth [4] - The stock's 52-week price range is RMB 44 7-84 6, with a current market cap of RMB 28,843 million [2]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 时代电气 （3898.HK/6881 87.CH） 时代电气（3898.HK/688187.CH）：三季度 轨交业务和新兴设备业务均同比稳定增长 我们维持时代电气（3898.HK/688187.CH）的"买入"评级及目标价。 重申时代电气"买入"评级：时代电气三季度净利润同比增长 11%， 环比增长 6%，再次实现业务稳定增长。公司的毛利率录得 32.6%， 同比下降 1.9 个百分点，环比增长 8.6 个百分点。会计准则变化导 致毛利率变化幅度较大，但业务本身毛利率则相对稳定。展望明年， 轨交业务受益于大修等增量需求，将持续复苏。宜兴的 IGBT 产能稳 步扩张保障功率半导体业务增长基石。公司当前港股、A 股市盈率 分别为 9.6x、16.4x，估值具有吸引力。 新能源车行业需求带动功率半导体高速成长：时代电气三季度新兴 装备收入为人民币 26.6 亿元，同比增长 14%，环比增长 14%，增长 强劲。其中，功率半导体和新能源汽车主驱两个板块成长表现突出。 功率半导体收入达 9.65 亿元，同比增长 27%，环比增长 6%。尽管 新能源车的 IGBT ...