Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 350 [1][3] Core Views - Domestic revenue is expected to remain under pressure in 4Q24, with a potential recovery in 2025 [1] - Overseas business continues to grow steadily, while domestic growth is sluggish due to anti-corruption measures and delayed equipment renewal tenders [1] - 3Q24 revenue growth was modest, with domestic revenue declining by 10% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 19% YoY [1] - Life Information & Support segment revenue fell by over 20% YoY in 3Q24, while IVD and Medical Imaging grew by less than 10% and 3% respectively [1] - Gross margin in 3Q24 declined by 5.5 ppts YoY, mainly due to accounting adjustments, but remained stable on a like-for-like basis [1] - Medical special bonds and local special bonds issuance accelerated in September 2024, but the impact on 4Q24 performance is expected to be limited [1] - The company plans to reduce inventory levels from 4 months to 2 months by the end of 2024, which may pressure 4Q24 revenue growth [1] - Full-year 2024 revenue growth is expected to slow to 7% YoY, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2025 as equipment renewal projects materialize [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 37.4 billion, with a 7.1% YoY growth, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 21% YoY to RMB 45.3 billion [2] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 12.5 billion, with a 7.6% YoY increase, and 2025E net profit is expected to grow by 21% YoY to RMB 15.1 billion [2] - Gross margin for 2024E is projected at 64.2%, slightly lower than 2023A's 66.2% [4] - Operating cash flow for 2024E is expected to be RMB 15.6 billion, with capital expenditures of RMB 6.8 billion [5] Dividend Policy - The company announced a second dividend of RMB 1.65 per share for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 65% [1] - The single dividend yield is 0.6% based on the closing price on the announcement date [1] Valuation Metrics - The target price of RMB 350 implies a 28x 2025E PE, in line with the 3-year historical average [1] - 2024E PE is projected at 26.4x, declining to 21.8x in 2025E [2] - The dividend yield for 2024E is expected to be 2.5%, increasing to 3.0% in 2025E [5]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 青岛啤酒（168.HK/600600.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 青岛啤酒（168.HK/600600.CH）：销售费用 大幅反弹导致 3Q24 净利润不及预期，产品 结构面临压力 盈利趋势逐渐走弱，维持青啤"持有"评级：我们认为青啤短期业绩 面临以下挑战：（1）整体销量持续疲弱，销量同比下滑幅度大于主要 竞对，（2）中高端以上价格带产品增长乏力导致产品结构提升受阻， （3）销售费用后置短期令利润率承压。基于 3Q24 的业绩表现，我们 对青啤高端化的前景更为谨慎，并适当下调了 2024-2026 年的收入与盈 利预测。基于 12.0x 2025 年 EV/EBITDA 的估值（与华润啤酒目标估值一 致），我们下调青啤 A 股目标价至人民币 70.6 元。基于 8.0x 2025 年 EV/EBITDA 的估值（华润啤酒目标估值 20%的折扣），我们下调青啤 H 股目标价至 58.4 港元。维持青岛啤酒 A 股与港股"持有"评级不变。 3Q24 业绩不及预期：青啤 3Q24 归母净利润同比下滑 9.0%，而收入同 比下降 5.3%，利润下滑幅度大于收入下滑幅度，主要是由于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the Hong Kong stock with a target price of HKD 16.8, and a "Hold" rating for the A-share with a target price of RMB 22.4 [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 3.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 420 million, down 13.2% year-on-year but up 18.7% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue guidance down to a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate, primarily due to slower-than-expected recovery in laboratory services and delays in major clinical service orders [5][7]. Financial Performance - For 3Q24, the CMC segment showed the fastest revenue growth at 20.9% year-on-year and 34.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin increase [4]. - The laboratory services segment also experienced a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in the biosciences sector [4]. - The company reported a gross margin of 34.4% for 3Q24, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13% [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first nine months of 2024, new orders increased by over 18% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the top 20 pharmaceutical companies, which saw a revenue growth of 3.4% year-on-year [3][4]. - North American customer revenue grew by 4.3% year-on-year, while European customer revenue accelerated to 15.7% year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of 2024, with a projected full-year revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits [5][7]. - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2024 has been reduced by 5% due to lower revenue expectations and higher gross margin forecasts [7].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 荣昌生物（9995.HK） 目标价（港元） 26.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +58% 目前股价（港元） 16.5 52 周内股价区间（港元） 10.2-49.0 总市值（百万港元） 15,740 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 40 注：截至 2024 年 10 月 30 日收盘价 市场预期区间 荣昌生物 荣昌生物（688331.CH） 目标价（人民币） 35.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +7% 目前股价（人民币） 32.6 52 周股价区间（人民币） 22.3-71.8 总市值（百万人民币） 14,429 近 3 月日均成交额（百万人民币） 111 注：截至 2024 年 10 月 30 日收盘价 （9995.HK/688331.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 荣昌生物（9995.HK/688331.CH）：研发费用 管控初见成效 荣昌生物 3Q24 收入符合预期，净亏损显著好于预期，主要得益于研 发费用管控显著好于预期。维持"持有"评级及目标价（港股 26 港元、 A 股人民币 35 元）。 ● 3Q24 收入符合预期，净亏损显著好于期：公司 3Q24 实现收入人民币 4.7 亿元（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 112.4, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of CNY 97.2 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's third-quarter performance showed improvement compared to the low point in the second quarter, driven by stable demand in the industrial control sector and rapid growth in automotive-related revenue. The photovoltaic sector also began to recover from earlier lows [2][8]. - The silicon carbide (SiC) business is progressing steadily, with expectations of doubling revenue compared to last year. The increasing penetration of new energy vehicles is anticipated to sustain high growth in the company's automotive main drive modules [2][7]. - Despite significant price pressures in the automotive sector, the company is expected to stabilize and potentially increase its gross margin through various cost-reduction measures and product mix upgrades [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 880 million, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21%. The gross margin was 32.0%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 149 million, reflecting a 35% year-on-year decline but a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, also showed a similar trend [2][8]. - The company’s forward P/E ratio is currently at 26.2x, which is below the historical average, suggesting room for valuation upside [2][12]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with expected revenues of CNY 3,342 million and CNY 4,089 million respectively, reflecting a 23% decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at CNY 1,065 million, with a gross margin of 31.9%, and net profit is expected to be CNY 596 million, indicating a 46% increase from prior forecasts [2][7]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 2.2% and a WACC of 13.5%. The target price of CNY 112.4 corresponds to a P/E of 32.3x for 2024 and 25.1x for 2025 [2][9][10]. - The company’s free cash flow projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and operating profit over the next several years, with a long-term growth rate assumption of 3% [2][9].

Economic Overview - In September, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 254,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated[3] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% in September[5] - Core CPI inflation rates exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, driven primarily by a rebound in super-core services CPI[7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation remains for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with a total of seven cuts anticipated by July next year, bringing the policy rate down to 3%[1] - Risks are skewed towards a slower pace of rate cuts, as more economic data is needed to support the "no landing" narrative[16] Political Landscape - Trump's chances of winning the election have increased, with a 15 percentage point lead over Harris in key swing states[17] - If Trump wins and implements his tax cuts, the economic growth and inflation impact could be more significant compared to Harris's policies[21] Financial Market Insights - The dollar index rose by 3.5% in October, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 12.3%[24] - The market anticipates that if Trump wins, the dollar index could continue to rise, with a year-end forecast of 106[24] Investment Risks - Potential risks include rapid rate cuts by the Fed, geopolitical tensions leading to inflation, and unexpected outcomes from the U.S. elections[1]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 目标价（港元） 56.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +6% 目前股价（港元） 52.8 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.5-103.6 总市值（百万港元） 167,502 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 441 SPDBI 目标价 ◆ 目前价 ◆市场预期区间 *数据截至 2024 年 10 月 28 日 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 药明康德 药明康德(603259.CH) 目标价（人民币） 62.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（人民币） 53.4 52 周内股价区间（人民币） 36.3-93.6 总市值（百万人民币） 153,659 近 3 月日均成交额(百万人民币) 2,869 （2359.HK/603259.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 药明康德（2359.HK/603259.CH）：3Q24 经 调整归母净利略高于预期，维持全年收入 利润指引 公司 3Q24 收入大致符合我们预期，经调整 Non-IFRS 归母净利润略 好于我们预期。公司维持全年收入利润指引不变，上调全年自由现 金流指引，主要系下调资本开支指引。上调港股/A 股目标价至 56 港元/人民 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 CNY 107.0 CNY 162.0 CNY 111.8 CNY 130.8 韦尔股份 （603501.CH） 公司研究 | 半导体行业 韦尔股份（603501.CH）：三季度业绩 符合盈利预告，手机业务和汽车业 务均维持增长动能 我们略微调整韦尔股份 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并调整目标价至 人民币 130.8 元，潜在升幅 17%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申韦尔股份的"买入"评级：韦尔股份三季度业绩符合我们此前对 于公司处于半导体周期上行的判断，也符合公司此前的业绩预告。公 司三季度收入增速、毛利率、净利润增速均取得同比增长，并且利润 增速显著高于收入增速，基本面周期持续上行。从业务板块来看，韦 尔的手机 CIS 份额持续提升，我们预计明年该业务在产能扩张支持下 仍有确定性较高的增长空间，并且手机 CIS 毛利率有望维持在 30%以 上。公司的汽车 CIS 业务受益于新能源车及智驾渗透率快速提升，收 入增速确定性较高，毛利率稳定在 40%以上，有望在 2025 年维持该势 头表现。从未来 2-3 年的时间维度看，显示驱动业务和车规类模拟等 新产品业务都有望看 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 微电生理 （688351.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 微电生理（688351.CH）：3Q24 国内 业务有所承压，海外业务稳健增长 公司 3Q24 收入受国内业务影响有所下滑，但受益于有效的降本控费， 净利同比实现高增长。分地区看，国内三维手术量继续受到行业反腐冲 击，电生理设备投放及产品入院均受到一定影响，海外则维持稳健增长。 3Q24 业绩会上，公司表示 2024 年将力争实现收入同比 30%的增长，但 考虑到行业手术量增速仍在反腐背景下承受一定压力，我们的预测较公 司目标更为保守。维持"买入"评级及目标价人民币 27.9 元。 3Q24 收入因国内业务承压有所下滑，净利在降本控费下实现高增长： 3Q24 收入同比-1.5%至人民币 9,250 万元，收入中三维消融导管/标测 导管/设备/针鞘类产品占收入比例分别为>40%/约 30%/约 10%/约 15%， 其中主要新产品（压力消融导管、冷冻消融导管、高密度标测导管） 占比提升至 30%（vs 1H24 约 20%）；毛利率同比-4.3pcts 至 58.1%， 继续受到集采降价以及压力导管等新品上市后仍在放量期 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 闻泰科技 （600745.CH） 闻泰科技（600745.CH）：三季度产品集 成业务与功率半导体业务同频改善 调整目标价至人民币 41.6 元，潜在升幅 15%，维持"买入"评级。 重申闻泰科技的"买入"评级：闻泰科技三季度的净利润为人民币 2.7 亿元，环比扭亏，业绩符合此前管理层对于公司基本面的判断， 即今年产品集成业务盈利能力逐季改善，功率半导体业务基本面在 二季度触底并向上。公司半导体业务触底上行幅度高于我们此前预 期，因此我们上调 2025 年盈利增速预测至 127%。当前，闻泰科技 市盈率为 22.2x，略低于过去 5 年历史均值水平，仍然具备上行空 间。因此，我们对闻泰保持乐观判断。 产品集成业务扭亏在即。公司产品集成业务三季度录得收入 157 亿 元，毛利率 3.8%，净亏损 3.6 亿元，均实现环比增长或改善。主要 得益于：1）手机 ODM 等供应链上游零部件成本改善；2）大客户 产品规模提升；3）公司持续的降本增效。我们预期该业务有望在 今年四季度实现扭亏，并在 2025 年贡献约 1.3 亿元的盈利增量。 安世半导体基本面周期开 ...