浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 康方生物 （9926.HK） 公司研究 | 医药行业 康方生物（9926.HK）：依沃西与 K 药头对头数据好于预期 康方生物于 WCLC 大会公布的 HARMONi-2 数据显示出显著 PFS 获益及 优秀的安全性，好于此前市场预期。我们认为显著的 PFS 获益有望转化 成 OS 获益，值得期待。维持"买入"评级，上调目标价至 65 港元。 依沃西和 K 药头对头期中分析数据发表，PFS 获益及安全性好于预 期：昨晚（9 月 8 日）公司已于 WCLC 大会公布 HARMONi-2 期中分析 数据，符合之前公告的 PFS 获益显著，更为惊喜的是 PFS 数据（mPFS 为 11.14 个月，HR 为 0.51）优于此前市场预期，各个亚组 PFS 获益显 著，安全性数据无论在鳞癌还是非鳞癌均优秀，因此推动公司股价今 日上涨约 16%。 依沃西实现 11.14 个月 mPFS（vs. 帕博利珠单药：5.82 个月），HR 为 0.51，临床获益显著：在 HARMONi-2/AK112-303 (CTR20222137) 试验 中(n=398)，依沃西单药(n=198)与帕博利珠 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent (700.HK) with a target price of HKD 460, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 373.4 [3][11]. Core Insights - Tencent is positioned favorably in the digital ecosystem, leveraging digital technologies to drive long-term growth across its existing businesses, including advertising, gaming, and cloud services [2]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with the launch of its new model, Tencent Mixuan Turbo, which boasts a 100% improvement in training and inference efficiency and a 50% reduction in deployment costs [2][3]. - Tencent Cloud has achieved substantial growth, with over 2 million customers and a doubling of revenue from SaaS partners, indicating a healthy and sustainable business model [2]. Summary by Sections Digital Ecosystem and Growth - Tencent's recent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference highlighted its commitment to using digital technology as a new growth engine for enterprises, addressing challenges such as global inflation and weak consumer sentiment [2]. - The company aims to assist businesses in exploring new markets and opportunities through digitalization [2]. AI Innovations - Tencent's focus on integrating AI into industry scenarios has led to the deployment of its Mixuan model across over 700 business scenarios, enhancing productivity in various sectors [2]. - The Mixuan Turbo model has achieved top rankings in domestic evaluations, showcasing its capabilities in understanding and generating language, images, and videos [2][3]. Cloud Computing Advancements - Tencent Cloud's new AI infrastructure, known as Tencent Cloud Intelligence, offers high-performance computing capabilities that significantly reduce the time required for training AI models [3]. - The infrastructure's reliability is demonstrated by its low failure rates and high data read/write efficiency, outperforming industry averages [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yunkang Group (2325 HK) with a target price of HKD 10 5, implying a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 8 4 [3] Core Views - Yunkang Group's 1H24 performance was weak, with a net loss of RMB 130 million, primarily due to declining revenues across its three core business segments and increased industry competition [1] - The company's revenue fell by 20% YoY to RMB 380 million in 1H24, driven by slower-than-expected growth in routine testing demand and price declines in the ICL industry [1] - Gross margin decreased by 4 4 percentage points to 33 7% due to high fixed costs and reduced economies of scale [1] - Accounts receivable impairment continued to impact profitability, with RMB 100 million in impairment losses recorded in 1H24 [1] - The ICL industry is expected to face intensified price competition in the short term, as post-pandemic testing demand has declined, leading to excess capacity [1] - Accounts receivable aging is increasing, with 50% of receivables aged 1-2 years, and impairment is expected to continue affecting profitability [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 720 million, with a YoY decline of 19 2%, followed by a gradual recovery to RMB 807 million by 2026E [2] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 32 0% in 2024E, improving to 36 0% by 2026E [5] - The company is forecasted to remain in a loss-making position in 2024E and 2025E, with a slight profit of RMB 5 2 million expected in 2026E [5] - The DCF valuation model, with a WACC of 10 0% and a perpetual growth rate of 2 0%, supports the target price of HKD 10 5 [1] Industry Context - Major ICL companies, including KingMed, Dian Diagnostics, and Adicon, also reported significant revenue and profit declines in 1H24, reflecting broader industry challenges [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration's policy to accelerate medical insurance fund payments could potentially improve accounts receivable collection in the future [1] Market Expectations - The market consensus for Yunkang Group's target price ranges from HKD 7 0 to HKD 13 0, with SPDBI's base case target at HKD 10 5 [8] - The optimistic scenario assumes a steady gross margin above 50% and a core non-COVID revenue CAGR of over 20% from 2023-26E, while the pessimistic scenario projects a gross margin below 30% and a CAGR below 5% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to RMB 12.8, reflecting a potential upside of 9.4% from the current price of RMB 11.7 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue in Q2 2024 decreased by 3.3% year-on-year due to high base effects, while the net profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 12.6% driven by store structure optimization and cost reduction measures [1][2]. - The report highlights that the RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) declined by 6% year-on-year in Q2 2024, primarily due to last year's surge in travel demand and an imbalance in hotel supply and demand [1][2]. - The management expects the ADR (Average Daily Rate) to remain under pressure in Q3 2024 but stabilize sequentially, with expectations for steady performance in 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 7,883 million, reflecting a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to reach RMB 894 million, a 12.4% increase [2][5]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 improved by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to an increase in the proportion of franchise stores and mid-to-high-end hotels [1][5]. - The report indicates a decrease in selling and administrative expense ratios by 0.9 percentage points and 1 percentage point respectively in Q2 2024, contributing to profit margin enhancement [1][5]. Store Structure Optimization - As of mid-2024, the number of franchise stores reached 5,847, accounting for 90.3% of total stores, which is a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The proportion of mid-to-high-end hotels increased to 28.6%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, enhancing pricing power [1][5]. - The report notes that 47.8% of the newly opened stores in the first half of 2024 were standard stores, indicating a strategic shift towards improving store quality and structure [1][5]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downward due to the high base effect impacting operational data [1][9]. - The target price is based on a valuation of 6x the 2025E EV/EBITDA, reflecting a cautious outlook amid the current market conditions [1][9].

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 浦银国际 财务模型更新 网龙 （777.HK） 网龙（777.HK）：游戏保持相对稳定， 关注新游表现 利润率持续改善：公司 1H24 收入人民币 33.0 亿元，同比下降 10.3%； 其中，游戏及应用服务收入为 21.2 亿元，同比小幅下降 0.8%，主要 是海外游戏收入下滑；Mynd.ai 收入同比下降 23.5%至 11.8 亿元，主 要由于硬件需求回归常态化；毛利率同比改善 4.5pp 至 66.6%，主要 受益于高毛利的游戏收入占比提升；调整后净利润为 5.6 亿元，调整 后净利率为 16.9%。此外，公司宣布派发中期股息每股 0.4 港元。 游戏收入维持相对稳定，关注新游表现：1H24 公司游戏业务维持相 对稳定，收入同比下降 3%至 18.6 亿元；其中，国内游戏收入同比下 降 1.3%，端游保持增长，手游有所下滑；海外游戏收入同比下降 12.9%， 主要是《魔域》端游海外版受外挂影响及《征服》端游海外版受埃及 临时限电影响。这些问题正逐步改善，下半年海外收入有望恢复。国 内端游核心产品《简体魔域》保持良好用户粘性，MAU、DAU 等指标 均实现增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for IGG (799.HK) with a target price of HKD 4.0, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 3.3 [2][4]. Core Insights - IGG's strong performance in both gaming and app businesses is identified as a new growth driver, with a 9% year-on-year revenue increase to HKD 2.7 billion in 1H24 [2]. - The gross margin improved by 6.5 percentage points to 78.8%, primarily due to the increased revenue share from the app business [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 1H24 was HKD 350 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.7% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue reached HKD 2.3 billion in 1H24, showing a slight increase of 1% year-on-year [2]. - The core product, "King of Kingdoms," experienced a 19% decline in revenue to HKD 1.3 billion, while new games "Doomsday: Last Survivors" and "Viking Rise" generated revenues of HKD 500 million and HKD 300 million, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 97% and 151% [2]. - The new games accounted for 34% of total gaming revenue, effectively offsetting the decline from older titles [2]. App Business Performance - The app business generated HKD 400 million in revenue during 1H24, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 116% and increasing its revenue share to 15% [2]. - Following a business transformation earlier in the year, the app segment focused on content service-oriented applications, leading to a recovery in revenue and user engagement [2]. - Monthly revenue from the app business reached HKD 120 million in July, with expectations for continued high performance in the second half of the year [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenues of HKD 5.8 billion and HKD 6.4 billion for FY24E and FY25E, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be HKD 650 million and HKD 850 million [2][4].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 22 [3] Core Views - The company's 1H24 revenue reached RMB 2.22 billion, a YoY increase of 26.7%, with gross margin improving by 8.2pp to 67.4% due to higher self-developed game revenue contribution [2] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 240 million, with an adjusted net margin of 10.7%, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 72.7% YoY to RMB 320 million [2] - Game business revenue increased by 29.3% YoY to RMB 1.49 billion, driven by strong performance of new games such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "Sword of Linlang" [2] - TapTap platform revenue grew by 32.6% YoY to RMB 1.30 billion, with monthly active users (MAU) in China reaching 43.24 million, a YoY increase of 27.3% [2] - The company expects strong growth in game revenue in 2H24 due to the successful launch of new games and the upcoming release of "Let's Go Muffin" in South Korea and Japan [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E/2025E is projected to be RMB 5.0 billion/RMB 5.3 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 570 million/RMB 650 million [3] - The target price of HKD 22 implies a 2024E/2025E P/E of 17.0x/14.7x [3] Game Performance - "Let's Go Muffin" became the top revenue contributor in 1H24 after its launch in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and mainland China, with plans for expansion into South Korea and Japan [2] - "Heartbeat Town" achieved over 25 million downloads in its first month and is expected to become a product with millions of daily active users (DAU) [2] TapTap Platform - TapTap's user base rebounded, with MAU in China growing by 27.3% YoY and 14.8% QoQ, driven by increased marketing and the launch of popular games [2] - The company has limited ad load rates to improve user experience, which may slightly impact short-term ad revenue growth, but double-digit growth is still expected in 2H24 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price raised to HKD 5.21, indicating a potential upside of 23.2% from the current price of HKD 4.23 [5][7][8]. Core Views - Despite a challenging competitive environment, China Feihe's fundamentals have significantly improved after two years of channel reforms, with healthy channel inventory levels and a notable recovery in terminal prices. The sales of ultra-premium new products have shown strong growth, contributing to an expansion in overall brand strength and market share [5]. - The management is optimistic about revenue acceleration in the second half of 2024, projecting a double-digit year-on-year revenue growth for the full year [5][6]. - The company continues to focus on product premiumization, with ultra-premium product revenue growing by 19.6% in the first half of 2024, while high-end and regular product revenues declined [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 1H24, China Feihe's infant formula revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, with offline sales increasing by 3% and online sales by 9%. The current channel inventory is estimated at one and a half months, which is considered healthy [5]. - The gross margin for 1H24 expanded significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 67.9%, driven by product mix improvement and recovery in overall pricing after implementing various channel reforms [5][13]. - The company expects to maintain a high gross margin level, although marketing expenses may increase starting in 2H24, potentially putting pressure on net profit margins [5][6]. Dividend Policy - China Feihe announced a dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share for 1H24, with a payout ratio increasing to 72.2% from 66.2% in 1H23. The management reiterated a commitment to a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts, maintaining a payout ratio above 70% [6][7]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects a revenue of RMB 20,497 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9%. The core net profit is expected to reach RMB 4,387 million, a 7.5% increase compared to the previous year [11][14]. - The financial metrics indicate a PE ratio of 8.1 for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted at 15.0% [11][12].

Global Fund Flows - Most stock markets recorded net inflows in August, with the US market being particularly favored, showing a net inflow of $16.36 billion [4][15] - Developed markets attracted a net inflow of $38.77 billion, while emerging markets saw an increase in net inflows to $16.38 billion [4][15] - The attractiveness of emerging markets is rising, with net inflows of $7.12 billion from August 22 to August 28, compared to $6.48 billion in developed markets during the same period [4][15] US Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a strong net inflow of $33.49 billion in August, driven by both domestic and foreign investments [8][12] - Domestic funds contributed a net inflow of $17.13 billion, while foreign funds added $16.36 billion, with passive foreign funds being the main driver [8][12] - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is expected to maintain the trend of net inflows, despite potential risks from high interest rates [8][12] Japanese Stock Market - The Japanese stock market recorded a net inflow of $4.8 billion in August, with domestic funds contributing $4.44 billion and foreign funds reversing from net outflows to a net inflow of $0.35 billion [12][15] - Passive foreign funds showed significant net inflows, indicating active trading in Japanese stocks [12][15] Chinese Stock Market - The outflow of foreign capital from the Chinese stock market has significantly slowed, with a net outflow of $2.48 billion in August, down from $5.59 billion in July [15][17] - Domestic capital saw a strong net inflow of $16.5 billion, driven by state-owned enterprises' participation [15][17] - There is a structural opportunity in sectors that are underweight, with active funds showing a preference for telecommunications, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors [15][18] Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net inflow of $0.08 billion in August, marking the third consecutive month of inflows, although the amount decreased from $0.5 billion in July [21][23] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 41.88 billion, but the average daily trading volume's share in the Hong Kong market decreased to 14.8% from 17% in July [21][23] Southbound Fund Trends - Southbound funds continue to show net inflows, with significant interest in defensive high-dividend stocks and quality growth stocks [26] - The sectors that attracted the most inflows include utilities, banking, and telecommunications, while sectors like energy and retail saw outflows [23][26]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 财务模型更新 | 消费行业 贝泰妮（300957.CH）：并购子品牌驱动 收入增长，主品牌调整成效仍需时间 贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比录得增长 13.5%，主要是 2023 年收购的悦江旗 下品牌 Za 和泊美收入共人民币 1.3 亿元带动。如剔除悦江收入，贝泰 妮可比口径在 2Q24 仅同比增长 5.1%，薇诺娜品牌的战略调整效果尚 未展现。我们下调贝泰妮 2024-2026E 盈利预测，下调目标价至人民币 43.0 元，维持贝泰妮"持有"评级。 悦江为收入带来增量，主品牌增长乏力：尽管贝泰妮 2Q24 收入同比 增长 13.5%，但这主要是因为悦江旗下 Za 和泊美两品牌录得收入人民 币 1.3 亿元。由于悦江仅仅是在 2023 年 10 月 31 日并入公司，因此 上年同期无此项收入。如剔除悦江带来的收入，贝泰妮自有品牌 2Q24 收入仅同比增长 5.1%，低于 1Q24 自有品牌 11.1%的同比增长。虽然 悦江的加入有力地提高了公司多品牌矩阵的成熟度，并增加了收入来 源，但是目前悦江的收入贡献占比仍较少，仅占公司收入的 7.4%，尚 未能有效地拉动公司整体收入的 ...