浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 滔搏（6110.HK）：低估值、高股息、 林闻嘉 优质基本面带来较强的防御性 浦 首席消费分析师 银 richard_lin@spdbi.com 国 我们认为滔搏短期较弱的收入表现已基本反映在股价中，同时认为公 (852) 2808 6433 司当前较低的估值水平与较高的股息率，叠加其优秀的基本面和现金 际 桑若楠，CFA 流，为滔搏的股价提供了很强的防御性，可支撑滔搏后市维持稳健的 股价表现。下调滔搏目标价至 7.0 港元，维持滔搏“买入”评级。 消费分析师 serena_sang@spdbi.com  当前股价已反映 2024年以来较弱的收入趋势：基于疲弱的终端需求 (852) 2808 6439 公 以及较高的基数，我们预计滔搏 1-2 月收入同比小幅下滑低单位数， 司 2024年4月12日 与行业表现基本一致。结合 2023 年 12 月在低基数之上较高速的收 研 入增长，我们预测滔搏 4QFY24 整体收入同比增长中单位数。我们预 评级 究 计滔搏 3 月的收入延续了1-2 月小幅下跌的趋势，但跌幅远小于主要 同业（宝胜）。公司库存依然维持健康水平，2 月底库 ...

Group 1 - The new "Guo Jiu Tiao" aims to optimize the capital market system and protect investors' legal rights, establishing a framework for previously announced policies. In the short term, it is expected to improve market sentiment and liquidity, while in the long term, it will enhance investor confidence and stabilize the market ecosystem [1][12][37]. - The report outlines a five-year goal to form a high-quality development framework for the capital market, with improved investor protection mechanisms [2][40]. - The focus on continuous supervision of listed companies includes enhancing regulations on share reduction, cash dividends, and market value management, with strict rules for major shareholders and incentives for companies with high dividend yields [3][12][49]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need for stringent trading regulations, particularly against abnormal trading and market manipulation, with enhanced oversight of high-frequency trading and private fund operations [4][12]. - It highlights the importance of deepening coordination between central and local governments, as well as inter-departmental collaboration, to promote high-quality development in the capital market [5][12]. - The report suggests that the capital market will benefit from a more robust regulatory framework, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies and enhancing the capabilities of securities and fund institutions [9][12][40]. Group 3 - The new "Guo Jiu Tiao" introduces a "1+N" policy system, where "1" refers to the main document and "N" includes supporting regulations from various regulatory bodies, emphasizing strong regulation, risk prevention, and high-quality development [62][12]. - The report indicates that the capital market will see a significant increase in the proportion of equity public funds and the establishment of fast-track approval channels for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to encourage long-term investment [10][75]. - It also notes that the focus on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will increase, particularly in terms of cash dividends and market value management, which are expected to benefit high-yield SOEs [78][79].

Employment Data - In March, non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 214,000[22] - The labor participation rate for ages 16-19 rose by 1.6 percentage points to 38.2%[4] - Part-time employment increased by 498,000 in March, following a decline of 182,000 in February[4] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The overall CPI rose by 0.38% month-on-month in March, slightly down from 0.44% in February[24] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.8% year-on-year, while the core inflation rate increased by 0.36% month-on-month[21] - The super core services CPI, excluding housing prices, was a key factor supporting core CPI resilience[21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in June has decreased to 15%, down from 60% previously[5] - A rate cut is now more likely to be delayed until the third quarter, with a probability of 60%[5] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains dovish, but strong economic data may increase the risk of a hard landing[5] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may not respond timely to economic weakness, potentially leading to a recession[23] - High inflation rates could persist if rate cuts are implemented prematurely, risking economic overheating[23]

浦银国际研究 公司研究|医药行业 中国生物制药（1177.HK）：BI 战略合作 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 银 开启，国内肿瘤管线更上层楼 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6434 际 ● 公司和勃林格殷格翰达成战略合作，共同在中国大陆开发和商业化 胡泽宇 CFA BI 肿瘤管线：今天（4月8 日）公司宣布和勃林格殷格翰（Boehringer 医药分析师 Ingelheim, BI）达成战略合作，共同在中国大陆开发和商业化 BI肿瘤管 ryan_hu@spdbi.com 线，包括 3 个处于临床开发阶段的资产及若干早期资产。目前交易对 (852) 2808 6446 价未披露。产品收入将计入中生财务报表，预计将实现双位数利润率。 ● 此战略合作是一项正面惊喜，显示出跨国药企对公司强大商业化能 2024年4月9日 力的认可和公司出色的 BD 能力：跨国药企与国内大药企达成多产品 战略合作实属罕见，一方面显示出 BI对公司在国内肿瘤领域商业化能 公 力的高度认可，另一方面，公司能够赢得跨国大药企的信任，也说明 评级 司 公司人才文化日趋国际化，BD 能力出色。 研 究 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 特海国际（9658.HK）：2023 年业绩强 林闻嘉 劲，2024 年展望乐观，增长潜力开始释放 首席消费分析师 浦 银 richard_lin@spdbi.com 国 2H23翻台率大幅提升驱动公司2023年首次实现盈利。同时，公司1Q24 (852) 2808 6433 际 依然维持去年下半年强劲的翻台率趋势，有望帮助公司 2024 年的利 桑若楠，CFA 润率同比进一步改善。门店方面，公司有望在未来 3 年里实现加速扩 消费分析师 张。在当前强劲趋势下，我们认为公司估值尚有继续释放的潜力。我 serena_sang@spdbi.com 们上调目标价至 18.6港元（11x2024 EV/EBITDA），维持“买入”评级。 (852) 2808 6439 公  翻台率提升驱动 2023 年首次扭亏为盈：公司 2023 年收入同比增长 2024年4月9日 司 23%，并录得归母净利润 25.7 百万美元，首次扭亏为盈。虽然 2023 研 年全年仅新开 5 家门店（净开 4 家），但公司 2H23 翻台率环比大幅 评级 究 由 1H23 的 3.3 次/天提升至 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an increased target price of HKD 24 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during the Qingming Festival, the average spending per tourist exceeded 2019 levels, with a total of 539.5 billion RMB spent, marking a 12.7% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1]. - For the upcoming May Day holiday, there is a strong booking trend, with domestic flight prices rising above those during the Qingming Festival, indicating continued confidence in the tourism sector [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the tourism industry, particularly through the appeal of trendy cities attracting younger consumers [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenue of 37.2 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a 44% year-on-year growth, with accommodation revenue expected to reach 9.4 billion RMB [1][2]. - Transportation revenue is anticipated to be 17.0 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at 2.546 billion RMB, with an adjusted target PE of 20.0x for FY24E [2].

浦银国际研究 策略月报 策略月报 | 投资策略 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 Melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 0411 美国、印度和日本股市仍较受全球资金追捧。 截至 3 月 27 日，3 月 美国、印度和日本股市持续获得较多资金流入，分别净流入 77 亿、 15 亿和 13 亿美元。中国内地股市仍录得净流出 12 亿美元，但欧洲市 场中英国和法国转为净流入 6 亿和 5 亿美元。期间，主要股票市场均 录得正回报，其中德国股市领涨，上涨了 4.6%。虽然仍遭遇全球资金 减持，但是中国内地和香港市场分别上涨 0.6%和 0.2%（图表 1）。 外资持续净流出中国股市，国内增量资金净流入有所放缓。根据 EPFR， 截至 3 月 27 日，3 月有 12.1 亿美元（2 月同期：9.9 亿美元）资金净 流出中国内地市场，其中主动基金净流出 20 亿美元，净流出规模较 上月有所缩小，被动基金净流入 7.9 亿美元，这显示对冲基金可能仍 在积极地交易中国股票（图表 4）。截至 3 月 27 日，3 月共有 28 亿美 元的国内增量资金净流入中国股票市场，环比明显下降（图表 5）。从 周度数据来 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995.HK) to "Hold" from a previous rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 33.0, indicating a potential upside of 12% from the current price of HKD 30.0 [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of over 50% year-on-year in 2024, driven by its innovative drugs RC18 and RC48. However, the lack of clear guidance on the international launch timeline for its product Tai Tasi Pu has led to the downgrade in rating [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.08 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, with product sales contributing RMB 1.05 billion, up 42.1% year-on-year. The net loss attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.51 billion, a 51.3% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company has sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for approximately three years, with a cash balance of RMB 727 million at the end of 2023 and a net cash burn of RMB 1.5 billion for the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The report provides a financial forecast indicating that revenue is expected to grow to RMB 1.61 billion in 2024, representing a 49.9% year-on-year increase, and further to RMB 2.52 billion in 2025 [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for product sales improved to 75.9% in 2023, an increase of 12.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by the sales growth of innovative drugs [1][2]. - The report anticipates that research and development expenses will rise to RMB 1.5 billion in 2024, reflecting the ongoing clinical trials for core products [1][2]. Key Catalysts - Major catalysts for 2024 include potential international licensing for RC18, approval for RA indications in China, and data readouts for RC48 and RC88 in clinical trials [1][2]. - The management expressed confidence in achieving the revenue guidance for 2024, citing strong sales performance in the first quarter [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 15.50, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 8.4 [1][3][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from steady revenue growth and a reduction in expense ratios, with a projected high growth in net profit for 2024. Revenue for 2023 increased by 22% year-on-year to RMB 670 million, slightly below market expectations, but adjusted net profit saw a strong growth of 50% [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite recent concerns regarding the "3+N" procurement policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the impact on revenue growth is expected to be limited due to the relatively low proportion of procedures in the affected areas [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance the promotion of its aspiration products to offset the impact of losing bids for certain products in the procurement process [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to continue growing steadily, with estimates of RMB 870 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.7% [4][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 239 million in 2024, reflecting a significant growth of 64.5% compared to 2023 [4][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a consistent increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with net profit margins expected to expand due to reduced expenses [4][5][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown volatility, with a recent decline of 15% over the past month and a year-to-date decrease of 31.8% [11][15]. - The report compares the company's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a PE ratio of 31.0x for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 18.8x in 2024, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [9][11]. Product Pipeline - The report outlines the company's product pipeline, emphasizing its focus on neurovascular intervention products, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [10][15]. - Key products include the Tubridge flow-diverting stent and NUMEN detachable coils, which have shown significant market uptake, particularly in public hospitals in Henan province [3][10].

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 汇通达（9878.HK）：业务调整优化， 赵丹 浦 专注于利润端改善 首席互联网分析师 银 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6436 收入持平，利润改善。公司2023 年收入人民币824 亿元，同比增长 际 0.4%；毛利率同比改善 0.17pp 至 3.32%；调整后净利润为 4.5 亿元， 杨子超，CFA 互联网分析师 同比增长 10%，调整后净利率为 0.54%。 charles_yang@spdbi.com 财 (852) 2808 6409 交易板块维持稳定，消费电子品类表现突出。2023 年公司交易业务 务 维持稳定，同比增长 0.5%至 816 亿元；毛利率同比改善 0.18pp 至 2024年4月3日 模 型 2.50%。按品类来看，消费电子产品表现亮眼，收入同比增长 19.0%， 更 为公司业务增长重要驱动，主要得益于公司加强与行业头部品牌战略 评级 新 合作，进一步深化销售渠道拓展；农业生产资料波动较大，同比下降 22.3%，主要是公司主动调整业务结构导致；家用电器疲弱，同比下 目标价（港元） 36 降 11.5% ...