浦银国际研究 公司研究|医药行业 中国生物制药（1177.HK）：创新药有望推 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 银 动 2024 年达成双位数收入增速指引 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6434 际 2023 年业绩弱于预期，主要系反腐背景下仿制药收入不及预期所致。随 胡泽宇 CFA 着创新药收入的增长及集采风险的出清，2024 年收入有望实现双位数增 医药分析师 速。5个BD交易有望于24年达成。维持 “买入”评级和目标价4.5港元。 ryan_hu@spdbi.com ● 2023年整体业绩弱于预期：2023年全年公司实现收入262亿元（+0.7% (852) 2808 6446 YoY），归母净利润 23.3 亿元（-8.3% YoY），经调整 Non-HKFRS 归母净 利润25. 9 亿元（+1.5% YoY）。全年收入和经调整归母净利润均低于我 2024年4月3日 们预期和彭博一致预期，主要由于肿瘤、肝病、外科麻醉等板块收入 公 不及预期。考虑到创新药全年收入为 98.9 亿元，基本符合公司之前指 司 评级 引，我们推测主要是反腐背景下仿制药收入不及预期所致。从2H2 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 康龙化成（3759.HK/300759.CH）：4Q23 业 绩符合预期；2024 年收入指引为 10%+增速 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 银 4Q23 业绩符合预期。2024 年收入增速指引为 10%+，净利润增速预 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 计慢于收入增速。维持港股目标价 17.5港元，A股目标价 23.3元。 (852) 2808 6434 际 ● 4Q23 业绩符合预期：康龙化成2023全年收入增长12.4% YoY达到115.38 胡泽宇 CFA 亿元，经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润增长3.8% YoY达到19.03亿元，符合之 前公布的业绩预告和我们预期。4Q23来说：1）总收入达到29.8亿元 (+4.0% 医药分析师 ryan_hu@spdbi.com YoY, +2% QoQ)，其中来自欧洲客户的收入增速最快(+15% YoY, +32.1% QoQ), (852) 2808 6446 其次是美国（+3.2% YoY, +6.6% QoQ），来自中国客户的收入则同比环比均有 所下降（-11.8% YoY, -23.8% QoQ）。板块层 ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 唯品会（VIPS.US）：换季需求或受气 赵丹 浦 候影响，预计利润率同比改善 首席互联网分析师 银 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6436 受气候因素影响，我们略微下调公司盈利预测，调整目标价至 19 美 际 杨子超，CFA 元，维持“持有”评级。 互联网分析师 charles_yang@spdbi.com 由于天气影响穿戴类换季需求，且受去年同期高基数影响，唯品会3 (852) 2808 6409 财 月份销售表现或弱于预期，我们预计公司今年 1 季度GMV 实现中单 务 2024年4月2日 位数增长。由于公司一季度未做激进营销投放，我们预计公司用户数 模 型 基本持平，受益于SVIP 用户增长，ARPU或有所提升。 评级 更 新 因此，我们调整一季度预测收入至人民币277亿元，同比增长 0.7%， 目标价（美元） 19 调整后净利润为 22.5 亿元，调整后净利率同比改善 0.6pp 至 8.1%； ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 虎牙（HUYA.US）：全年扭亏为盈， 杨子超，CFA 浦 加大股东回报 互联网分析师 银 charles_yang@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6409 考虑到当前监管环境及行业竞争，预计公司 2024 年直播业务收入仍 际 赵丹 将持续下滑。与此同时，公司加大股东回报，宣布派发特别股息 0.66 首席互联网分析师 美元/ADS，或有助于释放公司账面约 14亿美元的现金价值。上调目 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 标价至 4.4 美元，维持“持有”评级。 (852) 2808 6436 财 务 2024年4月2日 业绩略优于预期，全年实现扭亏为盈。公司4Q23收入人民币15.3亿 模 型 元，同比下降27%，略优于市场预期1.6%。其中，直播收入为13.4亿 评级 更 元，同比下降 32%，主要是宏观环境和行业疲软以及公司战略转型所 新 致；平台移动MAU为8,550万，同比持平，季度付费用户同比下降22% 目标价（美元） 4.4 至 430 万；广告和其他收入为 1.9 亿元，同比增长 47%，主要受益于 潜在升幅/降幅 -3% 游戏广告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 15, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 10.96 [2][3][14] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 7.1 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, which was below market expectations by 3.1%. Game and application service revenue grew by 6.6% to RMB 4.2 billion, while Mynd.ai revenue fell by 25.7% to RMB 2.9 billion due to the normalization of the post-pandemic operating environment [2][3] - The gross margin improved by 7.0 percentage points to 61.9%, primarily due to the increased proportion of high-margin game revenue. The adjusted net profit was RMB 0.96 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.5% [2][3] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.4 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to HKD 1.8 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 16.4% [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenues of RMB 7.2 billion and RMB 7.6 billion for FY24E and FY25E, respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.3 billion for the same periods [3][14] - The target price corresponds to an 8x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][3] Game Business Performance - The gaming segment remained stable, with game revenue increasing by 9.6% to RMB 3.8 billion. Domestic game revenue grew by 10.5%, while overseas revenue increased by 4.5%, affected by a decline in player activity post-pandemic [2][3] - The core game IP "Magic Domain" maintained stability, with its revenue rising by 14% to RMB 2.9 billion and user engagement increasing by 50% year-on-year [2] Education Software Market Position - The company’s Promethean brand continues to lead the global K-12 interactive flat panel display market (excluding China) with a market share of 17.4%. Recently, Promethean launched a comprehensive SaaS solution to leverage hardware advantages and explore software revenue opportunities [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Douyu (DOYU.US) with a target price adjusted to $6.3 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - Douyu's live streaming revenue is expected to continue declining in 2024 due to the current regulatory environment and industry competition, with a projected decrease of 21% in live streaming revenue and a 10% decline in total revenue [2][3]. - The company's Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, with live streaming revenue at RMB 1.02 billion, down 36% [2][3]. - Douyu's advertising and other revenues increased by 226% year-on-year to RMB 280 million, driven by innovative services such as game membership [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Douyu reported an adjusted net profit of RMB 150 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 2.8% [2][3]. - The company experienced a decline in mobile MAU by 9.9% to 51.7 million and a 34% drop in quarterly paying users to 3.7 million [2][3]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 9.7% [2][3]. Share Buyback and Cash Position - Douyu announced a $20 million share buyback plan, which is modest compared to its cash reserves of approximately $960 million [2][3]. - The company executed a 10-for-1 share consolidation, which may help in cash value release in the future [2][3].

科技行业 | 行业追踪 小米汽车 SU7 发布会及小米汽车 沈岱 浦 超级工厂调研 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 际 3月28日，我们参观了位于北京亦庄的小米汽车超级工厂，并参 加了小米汽车SU7发布会。 黄佳琦 科技分析师 小米正式发布第一台汽车 SU7。3 月28 日，小米汽车SU7 正式发 sia_huang@spdbi.com 布。小米 SU7 系列一共有三个版本，SU7、SU7 Pro、SU7 Max，售 (852) 2809 0355 价分别为 21.59 万元、24.59 万元、29.99 万元。创始版限量 5000 2024年3月30日 行 台SU7 将在4 月3 日开启交付，小米 SU7 标准版和Max版将在4 业 月底开始交付，Pro 版本将在 5 月底开始交付。小米 SU7 系列分 追 踪 别搭载 73.6 度、94.3 度、101 度电池，综合续航里程达 700 公里、 830 公里、800 公里，配备高通骁龙 8295 智能座舱芯片以及英伟 达Orin 系列智驾芯片（图表 1）。其中，Max版本具有2.78s的零 百加 ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for ConnoMed (2162 HK) with a slightly adjusted target price of HKD 58 [3] Core Views - ConnoMed's 2023 revenue met expectations at RMB 350 million, but the net loss of RMB 360 million was slightly higher than expected due to higher R&D and administrative expenses [3] - CM310, an IL-4Rα inhibitor, has a first-year sales target of RMB 500 million for 2025, with a long-term peak sales target of RMB 5 billion [3] - CMG901, a CLDN18 2 ADC, has entered Phase 3 trials for second-line gastric cancer, with promising efficacy data (ORR: 33%, n=89) and potential to become a first-in-class drug [3] - Key catalysts for 2024 include CM310's approval for adult atopic dermatitis, long-term efficacy data, and the submission of a new indication for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps [3] Financial Analysis - 2023 revenue was RMB 350 million, with a net loss of RMB 360 million [3] - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 70 million, with a net loss of RMB 803 million [6] - 2025E revenue is expected to surge to RMB 563 million, with a net loss of RMB 797 million [6] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 1,175 million, with a net loss of RMB 690 million [6] - Gross margins are expected to remain strong, with 2024E at 100%, 2025E at 82 5%, and 2026E at 82 8% [7] Commercialization and Pipeline - CM310 is expected to be approved by the end of 2024, with a commercial team of around 200 people planned [3] - CMG901 is advancing rapidly in Phase 3 trials, with potential milestone payments of USD 10 million from AstraZeneca [3] - Other pipeline highlights include CM326 (TSLP) for rhinitis, CM313 (CD38) for SLE, and CM336 (BCMAxCD3) for multiple myeloma [3] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is adjusted to HKD 58 based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9 5% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [3] - 2025E and 2026E revenues are revised upward by 16 6% and 8 4%, respectively, due to updated sales guidance [3] - The report highlights a potential upside of 80% based on the current price of HKD 32 3 [3]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 药明生物（2269.HK）：2024 年 5%-10% 阳景 收入增速指引，低于预期 浦 首席医药分析师 银 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 维持“持有”评级，下调目标价至 20港元，重申我们认为短期内 (852) 2808 6434 国 公司股价仍将受到中美地缘政治影响而震荡的观点。 际 胡泽宇，CFA  2023年收入和经调整归母净利润大致符合我们预期。2023 年全年收 入达到人民币170亿元(+11.6% YoY， 非新冠收入增速为37.7% YoY)， 医药分析师 大致符合我们的预期和彭博一致预期。经调整 Non-IFRS 归母净利润 ryan_hu@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6446 为47 亿元（-4.6% YoY），基本符合我们预期，高于彭博一致预期。毛 公 利率为 40.1%（-3.9 ppts YoY），为近7 年最低，主要因海外生产设施 2024年3月27日 司 产能爬坡拖累。 评级 研  2H23 收入仅实现 6% YoY 增长，主要由 XDC收入增速驱动；经调整 究 Non-IFRS归母净利润下跌11% YoY，受海外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.1, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 17.1 [6][15]. Core Insights - Mengniu's revenue growth faces challenges due to industry demand slowdown, oversupply of raw milk, and intensified competition. Recent management changes may lead to short-term market sentiment fluctuations, but the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities in the liquid milk sector support long-term growth potential [5][6]. - The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% for the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2023 to 2026, driven by continuous margin expansion [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 92,593 million - 2023: RMB 98,624 million (YoY growth of 6.5%) - 2024: RMB 100,836 million (YoY growth of 2.2%) - 2025: RMB 105,095 million (YoY growth of 4.2%) - 2026: RMB 109,810 million (YoY growth of 4.5%) [10][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 5,303 million - 2023: RMB 4,809 million (YoY decline of 9.3%) - 2024: RMB 5,467 million (YoY growth of 13.7%) - 2025: RMB 6,291 million (YoY growth of 15.1%) - 2026: RMB 7,163 million (YoY growth of 13.9%) [10][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 35.3% in 2022 to 38.0% by 2026 - Operating Margin: Expected to increase from 5.9% in 2022 to 7.3% by 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 15.1% in 2022 to 13.3% by 2026 [10][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth areas identified for 2024 include: - Continued strong growth for the premium product "Te Long Su" - Positive expansion trends in ice cream sales overseas - Significant revenue growth for Bellamy's, with over 40% YoY increase in 2023 - Recovery in low-temperature yogurt sales after a significant decline - Fresh milk expected to contribute to revenue growth above the company average [5][10].