[Table_Main] 公司研究|信息技术|技术硬件与设备 证券研究报告 立讯精密(002475)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 全年业绩符合预期，通讯&汽车业务进展顺利 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 ——立讯精密 24Q3 业绩点评 [Table_ 当前价：TargetPrice 43.35 元 ] 目标期限： 6 个月 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 公司前三季度实现营业收入 1771.8 亿元，同比+13.7%；实现归母净利 润 90.7 亿元，同比+23.06%，扣非后归母净利润 81.2 亿元，同比+15.43%； 毛利率 11.72%，同比-0.08pct，其中 Q3 环比-0.94pct。24Q3 公司实现营 业收入735.8亿元，同比+27.1%，实现归母净利润36.8亿元，同比+21.88%。 公司对 24 年业绩进行预告，预计 2024 年公司实现归母净利润 131.4- 136.9 亿元，同比+20-25%，对应 EPS 为 1.82-1.90 元/股。利润端增速基 本符合我们对全年业绩增长的判断。 消费电子领域，我们认 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 紫燕食品(603057)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 25 日 [Table_Invest]增持|维持 [Table_Title] 调整节奏，经销商合作稳健 ——紫燕食品 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 事件 公司公告 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度，公司实现总营收 26.87 亿元 （-4.60%），归母净利 3.49 亿元（+2.19%），扣非归母净利 3.02 亿元 （+2.93%）。24Q3 单季，公司实现总营收 10.23 亿元（-4.61%），归母净 利 1.51 亿元（-6.78%），扣非归母净利 1.39 亿元（-8.18%）。 拓店较稳健，加盟费、门店管理费、信息系统使用费收入 Q3 同增 10% 1）"加盟费、门店管理费、信息系统使用费"收入 Q3 同增 10%，环比 Q2+6%。 2024 年前三季度，公司鲜货产品、预包装及其他产品、包材、"加盟费、门 店管理费、信息系统使用费"收入分别为 22.59、2.65、0.7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 14% year-on-year in Q3 2024, but profits were under pressure due to high sales investment and brand structure adjustments [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.018 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.09%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 415 million yuan, a decrease of 28.39% [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 73.73%, down 2.69 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to brand structure adjustments after the consolidation of Yuejiang [2] - The company is focusing on continuous iteration and upgrading of core products, with multi-brand collaborative development [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.04%, but a net profit of -69 million yuan [2] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.018 billion yuan, with a net profit of 415 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 76.35%, showing a narrowing decline compared to H1 [2] Business Segments - The main brand "Winona" and others generated a revenue of 3.637 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a growth of 5.98% [2] - The company launched the second generation of Winona's special essence, which has shown initial success in the market [2] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have an EPS of 1.79, 2.49, and 3.01 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 21, and 18 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in performance during the off-season, with a significant increase in gross margin and net profit margin quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The management transition has been smooth, and the company achieved impressive sales rankings during the Double Eleven shopping festival [4]. - The main brand continues to experience strong growth driven by a big product strategy, and the company is well-positioned to build a comprehensive domestic beauty ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 999 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.15%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, up 20.72% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 70.71%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from Q2, with a net profit margin of 15.15%, up 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [3]. Product and Management Developments - The company has been continuously iterating on existing products and launching new ones, enhancing its product matrix in preparation for the Double Eleven sales event [4]. - The management team underwent a successful transition, with the new general manager taking over smoothly from the previous one [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.92 yuan, 4.83 yuan, and 5.88 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25, 21, and 17 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with a year-to-date revenue of 2.376 billion yuan, representing a 9.46% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 94.80%, and the net profit margin was 66.74%. However, the Q3 performance showed a revenue of 719 million yuan, a modest 1.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 465 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on growth [3]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio, with recent approvals for new medical aesthetic products, including a gel for injection and a clinical trial for a weight management drug, which will enhance its strategic positioning in the market [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.376 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.586 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 94.80% and a net profit margin of 66.74% [3]. - The Q3 revenue was 719 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.10%, and a net profit of 465 million yuan, reflecting a 2.13% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 6.91, 8.31, and 10.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 26, and 22 times [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Japan's pension system is structured into three pillars: a basic public pension, an income-linked pension, and voluntary private pensions, ranking 36th among 48 global pension systems [2][14] - The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is the largest public pension fund globally, with assets reaching approximately 245.98 trillion yen (around 12 trillion RMB) in FY2023, and has maintained a nominal annual return of 4.33% since its market-oriented operation began in 2001 [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies and diversified asset allocation in managing pension funds, highlighting GPIF's approach of passive and outsourced investments [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Japan's Multi-Layered Pension System - Japan faces significant aging and declining birth rates, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and over rising from 5.80% in 1960 to 30.07% in 2023 [5][6] - The pension system consists of a first pillar (public pension), a second pillar (employer-sponsored pensions), and a third pillar (individual pensions), with the first pillar covering 97.85% of the labor force [9][11] - The net pension replacement rate in Japan has been declining, currently at 38.8%, which is below the OECD recommended level of 55% [11] 2. Management and Investment of Pension Assets - The public pension system is managed by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, with GPIF handling the investment of pension reserves since its establishment in 2001 [17][18] - The first pillar includes the National Pension and Employees' Pension Insurance, which are funded through contributions from insured individuals and government subsidies [18] - The second pillar consists of various employer pension plans, including lump-sum severance benefits and defined benefit plans, with the total asset scale for defined benefit plans reaching approximately 66 trillion yen [24] 3. GPIF's Investment Strategy - GPIF's investment strategy focuses on long-term asset allocation, with a target allocation of 25% each for domestic stocks, domestic bonds, foreign stocks, and foreign bonds [2][3] - The fund has increased its equity allocation from 20% to 50% over the past decade, reflecting a shift towards higher-risk assets [2] - GPIF's management fees are low, totaling 47 billion yen in FY2023, maintaining a stable ratio of 0.02% over the past three years [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its third-quarter performance, with a significant increase in net profit margin. For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.98%, and a net profit of 261 million yuan, up 44.35% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 58.33%, and the net profit margin was 25.15% [3]. - The company continues to innovate and iterate its product offerings, with strong growth in its Douyin channel and non-platform distribution. The mosquito repellent product line generated 89.11 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 16.15%, while the baby care product line achieved 150 million yuan, up 26.72% year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 320 million yuan, 399 million yuan, and 499 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.79 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.23 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34x, 27x, and 22x [5][7]. - The financial data indicates a robust growth trajectory, with revenue expected to reach 1.343 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.99% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated outstanding performance with a profit growth of 170.42% year-on-year, driven primarily by the growth of recombinant human collagen medical devices [3]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic recombinant collagen market, with multiple applications in the medical aesthetics and cosmetics sectors [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 988 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 520 million yuan, up 170.42% year-on-year [3]. - For Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 386 million yuan, a 92.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, reflecting a 153.96% growth year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 93.60%, with net profit margin at 54.57% [3]. Business Development - The company is expanding its medical aesthetics product line, with core products including various types of collagen injectables. The company has also initiated product registration for new collagen products aimed at facial volumization [3]. - In the cosmetics sector, the company has partnered with major brands like L'Oréal and has seen successful marketing campaigns, including collaborations with influencers [3]. Investment Recommendations and Earnings Forecast - Given the strong performance and ongoing expansion in the medical aesthetics market, the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 7.91, 10.87, and 13.97 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31, 23, and 18 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is steadily advancing, with the establishment of a dedicated management bureau for low-altitude economy, indicating strong governmental support for this sector [4][25]. - Tesla's Optimus robot has shown significant advancements in autonomous capabilities, including obstacle avoidance and the ability to carry loads, highlighting the growing potential in humanoid robotics [4][26]. Weekly Market Review - From October 13 to October 18, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 4.49%. The Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index gained 4.10%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 Shenwan first-level industry indices [3][12]. - Sub-industry performance included increases of 5.51% for general equipment, 5.09% for specialized equipment, and 5.16% for automation equipment [3][12]. Key Sector Tracking Low-altitude Economy - The establishment of a dedicated bureau for low-altitude economy management has been approved, focusing on policy formulation and regulatory oversight [4][25]. - Investment suggestions include infrastructure companies like Shenzhen Urban Transport and Sujiao Science, and core component manufacturers such as Zongshen Power and Wolong Electric [4]. Humanoid Robotics - Tesla's Optimus robot can autonomously navigate and interact with humans, showcasing advancements in AI and robotics [4][26]. - Recommended investments in this sector include companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group, which have collaborated with Tesla in the past [4]. Important Weekly News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a quarterly growth of 0.9% in Q3 [20][21]. - In September 2024, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [22]. - The Civil Aviation Administration announced over 700 million yuan in subsidies for general aviation and small airports, supporting the low-altitude economy [23]. Industry Data Tracking - The report includes various economic indicators and industry-specific data, such as manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment trends, which are crucial for assessing the industry's health [10][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications and electronics industry, indicating a positive outlook due to sustained high demand in AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [3][4]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector experienced a significant increase, with the industry index rising by 5.20% during the week of October 14-18, 2024. This growth is attributed to the ongoing high demand in the sector [3][9]. - TSMC reported a strong Q3 performance with a net profit of 325.3 billion TWD, a 54% year-on-year increase, driven by robust AI chip demand and a recovery in smartphone sales [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific stocks, with Hainengda leading the gains at 43.29%, followed by Dafu Technology at 34.12% and Dekeli at 31.12% [3][13]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The overall market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.49% during the same week [3][9]. - Within the telecommunications sector, the highest gain was seen in communication network equipment and devices, which rose by 8.44% [3][11]. Key News in Telecommunications - The report notes that China's liquid cooling server shipments are expected to exceed 230,000 units in 2024, with a market size of $1.26 billion, reflecting a 98.3% year-on-year growth [15]. - Alibaba International launched the Marco translation model, which supports 15 languages and reportedly outperforms Google and GPT-4 in translation accuracy [16]. - Google announced a partnership with Kairos Power to purchase power from small modular reactors to meet its AI development needs, indicating a shift towards nuclear energy for tech companies [17]. Company Announcements - Dafu Technology underwent a change in its actual controller due to a merger and restructuring plan, with the government of Bengbu City becoming the actual controller [21]. - Cambridge Technology reported a Q3 revenue of 2.764 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 48.60%, while its net profit decreased by 26.15% [21].