[b_Suy 今日预览 电话： 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：滞涨之后，转债会补涨吗？ 证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 13 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email： 今日重点>> 【固收】肖雨：滞涨之后，转债会补涨吗？ 【固收】肖雨：今年转债下修有哪些特点？ 【先进产业】冯胜：人形机器人板块中报回顾及中期策略 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 研究分享>> 【宏观】张德礼：应对需求不足，财政治标更治本——1012 财政部国新 办发布会解读 【固收】肖雨：增量财政超预期吗？ 【固收】肖雨：四轮债务置换：回眸与展望 【固收】肖雨："降息交易"告一段落——9 月美国通胀数据点评 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 【固收】肖雨：滞涨之后，转债会补涨吗？ 9 月 24 日以来，随着一系列政策发布后，权益迅速反弹，转债跟涨，我们在报告《权益反弹后， 转债买什么？》（20240927）中建议关注偏股且绩优转债。而行情进行到此时，转债面临一个问题： 即转债涨幅远不及权益 ...

报告摘要 2024 年 10 月 13 日，国家统计局公布 2024 年 9 月物价数据。9 月 CPI 环比为 0.0%， 较上月回落 0.4 个百分点；CPI 同比 0.4%，较前值回落 0.2 个百分点，低于市场一致 预期（0.7%）。9 月 PPI 环比-0.6%，跌幅较前值收窄 0.1 个百分点；同比-2.8%，低 于市场一致预期（-2.5%），降幅较前值扩大 1.0 个百分点。 随着极端天气 9 月消退，食品价格涨幅较前值明显收窄。CPI 食品项当月环比为 0.8%， 较前值（3.4%）涨幅有明显收窄，影响 CPI 环比上涨约 0.16 个百分点。猪肉项环比 涨幅较前值（7.3%）有明显收窄，主要因为中秋节后猪肉消费水平显著下降，养殖户 落袋而安的心态偏强。 非食品方面，和旅游相关的服务环比普遍有明显跌幅。9 月 CPI 旅游项环比为-6.3%， 较前值-0.7%相比跌幅明显走阔，飞机票、宾馆住宿和旅游价格分别下降 14.8%、7.4% 和 6.3%，一方面源于暑期结束出行减少，但考虑到 9 月还有中秋假期，因此或可反 映当前的有效需求依然有待提振。 能源方面，国际油价趋势下行，9 月国内汽油价格 ...

光伏组件价格再降，10 月排产预期提升 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2024 年 10 月 13 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|--------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Multiple policies are being introduced, focusing on a potential reversal in consumer expectations, particularly in the home improvement sector [2] - The home improvement subsidy program is expected to gradually improve demand and industry dynamics, with larger brands and distributors likely to benefit more [2] - The current valuation of the home improvement industry is considered low, with ample room for recovery as pessimistic expectations in the real estate sector improve [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 154 listed companies with a total market value of 824.02 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 695.04 billion yuan [2] Recent Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.45%, and the light industry manufacturing index by 7.01%, ranking 23rd among 28 industries [1][12] - The textile and apparel index decreased by 6.44%, ranking 21st among 28 industries [12] Key Company Performance - Notable companies include: - Baiya Co., Ltd. with a stock price of 24.93 yuan and an EPS forecast of 0.76 for 2024 [3] - Oupai Home with a stock price of 55.50 yuan and an EPS forecast of 5.31 for 2024 [3] - Sofia with a stock price of 16.29 yuan and an EPS forecast of 2.75 for 2024 [3] Consumer Trends - The home improvement sector is seeing a gradual recovery in demand due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape [2] - The report highlights the resilience of the soft furniture segment compared to custom furniture, with expectations of marginal improvement in demand in Q4 [4] Export and Domestic Sales - The export chain shows strong resilience, with companies like Jiayi Co., Ltd. and Xi Da Men expected to perform well [4] - Domestic sales in the home improvement sector are under pressure, but the introduction of subsidies is anticipated to provide a boost [4] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends indicate a slight increase in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices rising, while cotton prices have decreased [16][20] Real Estate Market Insights - Recent data shows a significant increase in property transactions during the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 82.7% in transaction volume [30][31]

Export Data Summary - In September 2024, China's exports reached $303.71 billion, while imports totaled $222 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $81.71 billion[1] - Year-on-year export growth in September was 2.4%, and import growth was 0.3%, both showing declines of 6.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Cumulative export growth for the year up to September was 4.3%, with August showing a notably high growth of 8.7%[1] Concerns and Trends - The decline in September's export growth rate was the largest since March, dropping 6.3 percentage points from August[1] - Exports to major trading partners (EU, US, ASEAN) all saw year-on-year declines, with specific drops of 12.1, 2.8, and 3.5 percentage points respectively[1] - The only exception was exports to Russia, which increased by 16.6% year-on-year, improving by 6.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] Structural Weakness - Exports across various product categories, including agricultural products, raw materials, and consumer goods, showed a downward trend[1] - The automotive sector's export growth significantly declined, contributing to a 0.4 percentage point drop in total export growth[1] - Extreme weather events in September, such as typhoons, impacted major ports and may have contributed to the overall decline in exports[1] Future Outlook - A potential rebound in exports is expected in October, but the underlying external demand may continue to weaken[1] - Global manufacturing PMI continued to decline in September, indicating a challenging external demand environment[1] - Import growth was marginally positive at 0.3%, with significant increases in soybean imports by 38.8% year-on-year, while electronic products saw a decline[1]

Export Data - In September 2024, China's exports in USD terms grew by 2.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of 5.9% and down from the previous value of 8.7%[1] - The month-on-month export change for September was -1.6%, compared to a 5-year average of 2.9% for the same period, indicating weaker seasonal performance[1] - The export of electromechanical products increased by 3.2% year-on-year, a sharp decline from the previous 12.9%, primarily affected by typhoons and high base effects from the previous year[5] Import Data - In September 2024, China's imports in USD terms rose by only 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.5% previously and below the market expectation of 1.2%[1] - The decline in imports was influenced by a 0.7 percentage point drop in the domestic manufacturing PMI import index and falling international commodity prices[8] - Major imports included semiconductors and related products, which saw strong growth, while iron ore and crude oil imports significantly decreased due to falling prices[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, down from $91.02 billion in the previous month, primarily due to the sharp decline in export growth[1] - The contribution to export growth from major trading partners like ASEAN and Russia was significant, with ASEAN contributing 1.09 percentage points and Russia improving by 0.57 percentage points[6] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the decline in exports is mainly due to short-term factors such as extreme weather and high base effects from the previous year, but expects resilience in export amounts in Q4 2024 as weather impacts fade[10] - Domestic policy shifts may lead to continued weak import demand in the short term due to the time lag in policy effects[10]

Financing Data - In September 2024, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 3.52 trillion yuan but showing a year-on-year decrease of about 356.5 billion yuan[1] - New RMB loans in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, below the market expectation of 1.75 trillion yuan, and decreased by 720 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The new RMB loan scale for social financing was 1.9742 trillion yuan, lower than the five-year average of 2.1119 trillion yuan, indicating a continued lack of effective demand[6] Monetary Supply - The year-on-year growth rates for M1 and M2 in September were -7.4% and 6.8%, respectively, with M1 decreasing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value and M2 increasing by 0.5 percentage points[1] - M1's year-on-year decline reflects a historical low, indicating weak capital expenditure by enterprises and a continued lack of confidence in economic recovery[11] Direct Financing - In September, non-financial corporate stock financing was 12.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with IPO and refinancing activities remaining at low levels[6] - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with new government bond issuance amounting to 1.5357 trillion yuan, an increase of 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year[6] Loan Trends - New loans to residents decreased for eight consecutive months, with September's new resident loans at 500 billion yuan, down 358.5 billion yuan year-on-year[8] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans have decreased for seven consecutive months, reflecting ongoing weak internal financing demand[8] Economic Outlook - The overall structure of new social financing in September showed divergence, primarily supported by government bonds and on-balance sheet bill financing, while internal financing demand from enterprises and residents continued to weaken[12] - The recent policy shift in late September and early October is expected to influence financial data and economic indicators significantly in the short term[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with its DCS flagship product winning multiple large contracts [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.162 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 159 million yuan, up 75.34% year-on-year [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic energy and power industry with its domestically produced DCS projects [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 1,154 - 2023A: 1,407 - 2024E: 1,907 - 2025E: 2,436 - 2026E: 2,976 - Growth rate (yoy%): 2023A: 22%, 2024E: 36%, 2025E: 28%, 2026E: 22% [1][2] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 161 - 2024E: 250 - 2025E: 351 - 2026E: 467 - Growth rate (yoy%): 2024E: 55.8%, 2025E: 40.0%, 2026E: 33.1% [1][2] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.67 - 2024E: 1.04 - 2025E: 1.46 - 2026E: 1.95 [1][2] - Cash flow per share: - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.47 - 2025E: 2.10 - 2026E: 2.54 [1][2] - Return on equity (ROE): - 2023A: 8% - 2024E: 12% - 2025E: 14% - 2026E: 16% [1][2] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: - 2023A: 32.8 - 2024E: 21.0 - 2025E: 15.0 - 2026E: 11.3 [1][2] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: - 2023A: 2.7 - 2024E: 2.4 - 2025E: 2.1 - 2026E: 1.8 [1][2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully launched various industry solutions, including smart power plants and smart chemicals, leveraging its EmpoworX platform [1] - The company aims to enhance its industrial internet capabilities and is expected to benefit from favorable policies in the domestic industrial automation sector [1]

北方稀土挂牌价继续上行 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of a policy aimed at accelerating the development of public data resources, establishing a framework for data ownership, market transactions, and benefit protection [4] - The policy sets development goals with timelines, aiming to establish a preliminary system for public data resource utilization by 2025 and a more mature system by 2030 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial and institutional support for the growth of the data element industry, including increased investment in data infrastructure and security [4] - It encourages the development of various data authorization models to optimize resource allocation and promote data product and service development [4] Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The number of listed companies in the industry is 337 [2] - The total market value of the industry is 35,364.65 billion [2] - The circulating market value of the industry is 30,646.11 billion [2] Key Company Conditions - The report provides financial metrics for key companies, including stock prices, EPS, and PE ratios, with recommendations to buy for several companies such as Chuangyi Huikang, Weining Health, and Jiuyuan Yinhai [3] Industry Market Comparison - The report discusses the potential for significant growth in the data element industry, driven by supportive policies and the establishment of a robust market framework [4]