下半年行业轮动或呈现哪些特点？——行业配置系列专题 [Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/专题策略 2024 年 9 月 24 日 [Table_ 分析师：徐驰 Authors] 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn ◼ 一、稳健类板块或依然是下半年的主线 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn [相关报告 Table_Report ] 短期来看，在美国大选风险扰动，以及国内政策定力保持的当下，市场风险偏好或 整体保守，"稳健类"板块或依然是下半年市场的主线。另一方面，从长期来看，当 前我国资本市场已逐渐从增量市场转向存量市场，在经济增速逐渐放缓，以及金融 监管持续收紧的大背景下，市场资金或更加聚焦于风险相对较低的稳健类资产进行 长期投资。 当前市场整体估值较低，且资金利率持续下滑，稳健类资产依然具有较高的"安全 边际"。行业方面，当前建议关注公用事业，交运等"泛红利"，以及核电、电信等 科技属性细分。 ◼ 二、周期类板块部分细分下半年或存在机会 周期板块部分细分或存在机会， ...

[Table_Industry] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] 政策协同，多管齐下，全面呵护市场信心回升——9 月 24 日国新办发布会解读 证券研究报告/策略评论 2024 年 9 月 24 日 [Table_ 分析师：徐驰 Authors] 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn ◼ 一、事件： 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 [相关报告 Table_Report ] ◼ 国务院新闻办公室于 2024 年 9 月 24 日（星期二）上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，请中国 人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主 席吴清介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况，并答记者问。发布会期间多项重磅政策 同时推出，加大货币政策调控强度，进一步支持经济稳增长。 ◼ 二、点评： ◼ 1、央行降准超预期，货币政策全面宽松。潘功胜宣布将降低存款准备金率和政策利率。 将下调存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，向金融市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元；可能择机 进一步下调存款准备金率 0.25-0.5 个百分点。7 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the nuclear industry but emphasizes significant investment opportunities in fourth-generation nuclear power and spent fuel processing. Core Viewpoints - The advancement of fourth-generation nuclear power, particularly sodium-cooled fast reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, is becoming increasingly mature in China [2][4]. - The acceleration of nuclear power plant construction is expected to enhance investment in spent fuel processing, with projections indicating a substantial increase in spent fuel generation by 2030 [3][4]. Group 1: Fourth-Generation Nuclear Power - Fourth-generation nuclear power concepts were proposed in 2000, focusing on sustainability, safety, reliability, and economic efficiency [2][4]. - China is leading in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor technology, with the HTR-PM demonstration project officially entering commercial operation in December 2023 [2][16]. - Sodium-cooled fast reactors are part of China's nuclear energy strategy, with the first demonstration reactor expected to be completed in 2023 [2][24]. Group 2: Spent Fuel Processing - The construction of nuclear power plants is projected to increase the investment in spent fuel processing, with an estimated 2,749 tons of spent fuel generated by 2030 [3][40]. - China’s spent fuel processing capacity is currently inadequate compared to international standards, necessitating the construction of 3-4 new processing plants by 2035 to achieve balance [3][40]. - The annual investment in spent fuel processing equipment is expected to reach between 14 billion to 39.5 billion yuan by 2035 [40]. Group 3: Related Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors include companies like Jiadeng Co., HaiLu Heavy Industry, and Kexin Electromechanical [4]. - For sodium-cooled fast reactors, companies such as Jiuli Special Materials are recommended for investment [4]. - The demand for transportation and storage containers for nuclear fuel is anticipated to grow, with companies like Kexin Electromechanical and Lanshi Heavy Industry being highlighted [4].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - Passenger car wholesale average daily sales reached 71,136 units as of September 15, an increase of 53.81% week-on-week, but a year-on-year decline of 9.99% [7] - Retail average daily sales of passenger cars were 62,881 units, up 29.72% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 4.80% [7] Group 2: Steel Industry - Overall steel inventory showed a decline, with rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories decreasing by 8.06% and 2.14% week-on-week, respectively, while wire rod inventory increased by 5.39% [8] - National blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.60 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.84 percentage points [4][6] - Tangshan blast furnace operating rate rose by 0.78 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 4.13 percentage points [4][6] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The total sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 13.12% week-on-week as of September 23, with second and third-tier cities seeing increases of 29.49% and 12.01%, respectively [6][10] - Land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased by 56.48% week-on-week, with significant declines across first, second, and third-tier cities [6][10] - The average land transaction premium rate across 100 major cities was approximately 2.22%, down 1.65 percentage points from the previous week [6][10] Group 4: Import and Export Performance - Export data showed a downward trend, with the China export container freight index decreasing by 4.19% week-on-week [9] - Import data showed an upward trend, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 4.60% week-on-week and the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index (CDFI) rising by 2.09% [9] Group 5: Price Trends - Food prices overall declined, with significant decreases in pork, beef, eggs, and various fruits, while some vegetables saw slight increases [14] - Commodity prices generally increased, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 1.58% week-on-week and WTI crude oil futures up by 0.40% [15][16] - The industrial product prices showed mixed trends, with some indices increasing while others, like aluminum and rebar, saw slight declines [16]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 24,372.90 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 21,541.12 billion CNY[1]. - The industry consists of 131 listed companies, with a significant focus on non-ferrous metals, particularly tin[1]. Tin Market Insights - In August, approximately 579 metric tons of tin concentrate were imported from Myanmar, representing a month-on-month decrease of 57.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 87.33%[2]. - The SHFE tin price increased by 1.71% to 261,900 CNY per ton, while the LME tin price rose by 3.88% to 32,150 USD per ton[3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for tin is expected to recover gradually, supported by a lack of effective capital expenditure and a resilient supply chain[2]. - The overall supply of tin remains rigid, with semiconductor consumption anticipated to gradually recover alongside high demand in the photovoltaic sector[2]. Price Trends in Other Metals - The price of rare earth oxides, such as praseodymium-neodymium, increased by 2.43% to 421,500 CNY per ton, indicating a strengthening market[11]. - The price of antimony remained stable at 138,000 CNY per ton, while the price of antimony ingots decreased slightly by 0.62%[3]. Electric Vehicle Market Performance - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.092 million and 1.1 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 29.6% and 30%[14]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 44.8%, indicating robust market growth despite a decline in European sales[14]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, technological substitution, changes in industrial policies, and unexpected declines in new energy vehicle sales[3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The import of tin concentrate from Myanmar in August was approximately 579 metal tons, a decrease of 57.68% month-on-month and 87.33% year-on-year [5]. - The investment strategy recommends focusing on metals with relatively inelastic supply, such as rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten, due to manufacturing restocking and increased supply-side uncertainties [5]. - The report highlights a general upward trend in small metal prices, with specific recommendations for rare earths, antimony, and tin due to their supply constraints and demand recovery in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry has 131 listed companies with a total market value of 2,437.29 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2,154.11 billion yuan [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Index rising by 5.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.88 percentage points [9]. Price Trends - The prices of small metals showed divergence, with SHFE tin prices increasing by 1.71% and LME tin prices rising by 3.88% [5]. - Domestic prices for rare earths, such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide, increased by 2.43% to 421,500 yuan/ton [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The photovoltaic sector saw a year-on-year increase in new installations, with 21.05 GW added in July 2024, reflecting a 12.3% growth [18]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales reached 1.092 million and 1.1 million units in August, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.6% and 30% [19]. - The report notes a decrease in lithium carbonate prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 74,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to pre-holiday prices [13]. Production Insights - In August, the total production of power and other batteries reached 101.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.4% and a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [31]. - The production of cathode materials in August was 279,900 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 8.82% [31].

评级：增持（维持） [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 (元) EPS PEPB 评级 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 联瑞新材 38.73 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 40.9 27.8 20.1 15.3 5.2 买入 圣泉集团 17.48 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 17.3 15.7 11.7 9.9 1.4 - 国瓷材料 14.73 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 25.6 19.6 15.6 12.6 2.2 买入 聚合顺 8.93 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 14.3 9.5 7.4 5.5 1.6 买入 蓝晓科技 41.81 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.3 29.3 20.8 16.0 12.8 6.2 买入 万润股份 8.04 0.8 1.0 1.3 - 9.6 7.7 6.2 - 1.1 买入 金宏气体 15.04 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 22.8 18.0 14.1 11.3 2.4 买入 广钢气体 7.21 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 29.4 27.3 20.9 16.2 ...

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：61.60 元 [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 4,022 4,678 5,776 7,290 9,172 增长率 yoy% 23.3% 16.3% 23.5% 26.2% 25.8% 净利润（百万元） 235 -217 -141 117 334 增长率 yoy% 60.5% -192.6% 35.0% 183.0% 184.8% 每股收益（元） 1.96 -1.81 -1.18 0.98 2.78 每股现金流量 0.44 -4.66 -0.63 2.15 4.30 净资产收益率 4.4% -4.3% -2.9% 2.4% 6.4% P/E 32 -34 -52 63 22 P/B 1 1 2 2 1 备注：股价统计时间 2024 年 9 月 22 日 分析师：闻学臣 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 Email：wenxc@zts.com.cn 分析师：何柄谕 执业证书编号：S07405190900 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00%, marking the first cut in four years[6] - The median forecast in the dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected within the year[6] - Economic projections show an upward revision of the unemployment rate and a downward revision of PCE inflation, with labor market concerns taking precedence over inflation[6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.25%, S&P 500 down 0.29%, and Nasdaq down 0.31%[10] - The U.S. dollar index initially dropped but later recovered, closing down 0.07% at 100.94[9] - Gold prices surged to a new high of $2,625 per ounce on September 20, driven by the Fed's rate cut and geopolitical tensions[14] Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed a smoother trading logic, benefiting from the Fed's rate cut, with the Hang Seng Index rising 5.12%[11] - The onshore and offshore RMB appreciated significantly, closing at 7.0417 and 7.0517 against the USD, respectively[12] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to 2.0450%, reflecting the impact of the Fed's unexpected rate cut on domestic policy space[11] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China maintained the 1-year LPR at 3.35% and the 5-year LPR at 3.85% on September 20, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts[15] - From January to August, China's general fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, totaling 14.78 trillion yuan, while general fiscal expenditure increased by 1.5%[18]

Group 1: Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah targets, marking a shift from defensive to offensive operations[6] - Lebanon's economic crisis is severe, with a CPI increase of 1.97% month-on-month and 35.37% year-on-year as of July[6] - Trade between China and Lebanon saw a total import-export value of $1.55 billion from January to August, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, with China's exports to Lebanon accounting for only 0.06% of total exports[6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, indicating a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[8] - U.S. existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 3.86 million in August, a 2.5% decrease month-on-month, marking the lowest level in nearly 10 months[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, reflecting a slight recovery in consumer demand[12] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The European Commission's new team reflects a focus on "de-risking" in defense and technology sectors, with the UK maintaining its interest rate at 5%[15] - Japan's CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in August, with exports growing at a slower rate of 5.6% compared to the previous 10.2%[17] - The global liquidity environment is improving, with the Chicago Fed's adjusted national financial conditions index at -0.53, indicating a more accommodative financial landscape[25]