Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure in Q3, but signs of a bottom have emerged [1] - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.48% in net profit for Q3 [1] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth of 17% in 2025 and 8% in 2026 [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 5,168 million - 2023A: 4,185 million - 2024E: 3,775 million - 2025E: 4,421 million - 2026E: 4,775 million - Year-on-year growth rates: -19% in 2023, -10% in 2024, 17% in 2025, and 8% in 2026 [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 1,461 million - 2023A: 1,125 million - 2024E: 878 million - 2025E: 1,079 million - 2026E: 1,281 million - Year-on-year growth rates: -23% in 2023, -22% in 2024, 23% in 2025, and 19% in 2026 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 20.33 - 2023A: 15.62 - 2024E: 12.19 - 2025E: 14.98 - 2026E: 17.78 [1] - **Cash Flow and Profitability**: - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 2.33 billion, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year [1] - The company maintained a high gross margin of 88.5% in 2023A, projected to be 89.5% in 2026E [2] Market Comparison - The company's stock price is currently at 212.64 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 15.32 billion [1] - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by foreign exchange losses, but there is anticipation for new production capacity to be released and progress on the 1.6T project [1] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 98.55% to 2.395 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 122.39% to 976 million yuan [1] - The report highlights the company's strong market position in optical devices and solutions, with ongoing R&D projects aimed at enhancing its competitive edge [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 1,196 million yuan - 2023A: 1,939 million yuan (growth rate: 62%) - 2024E: 3,844 million yuan (growth rate: 98%) - 2025E: 6,238 million yuan (growth rate: 62%) - 2026E: 8,874 million yuan (growth rate: 42%) [1][2] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 403 million yuan - 2023A: 730 million yuan (growth rate: 81%) - 2024E: 1,503 million yuan (growth rate: 106%) - 2025E: 2,236 million yuan (growth rate: 49%) - 2026E: 3,246 million yuan (growth rate: 45%) [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2022A: 0.73 yuan - 2023A: 1.32 yuan - 2024E: 2.71 yuan - 2025E: 4.04 yuan - 2026E: 5.86 yuan [1][2] - Key Financial Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15% in 2022A to 32% in 2026E [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 182.7 in 2022A to 15.6 in 2026E [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the optical device market, focusing on high-speed optical modules and related products [1] - Ongoing R&D efforts are aimed at developing next-generation optical components and enhancing production capabilities, particularly in international markets [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) [1][2] Core Views - The company's coal chemical and overseas operations are performing well, leading to continued improvement in performance on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1][2] - The company plans to invest 9.574 billion yuan in an 800,000-ton ethylene project, which is expected to enhance product value and market competitiveness [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 167.62 billion yuan, 173.42 billion yuan, and 177.14 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% in 2024 [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 16.26 billion yuan, 20.46 billion yuan, and 23.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -19% in 2024 [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.62 yuan, 2.04 yuan, and 2.30 yuan respectively [1][2] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The current P/E ratios are projected to be 9.8X, 7.8X, and 6.9X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2] Coal Business Performance - **Domestic Coal Production**: In Q3, the company reported a coal production volume of 9,622.1 thousand tons, with a unit cost of 375.9 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in production volume [1] - **Overseas Operations**: The overseas segment showed significant improvement in both volume and price, with production from three open-pit coal mines in Australia increasing significantly [1][2] Chemical Business Performance - **Methanol Production**: In the first three quarters of 2024, methanol production was 3.041 million tons, with a unit price of 1,833.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase in profitability [2] - **Investment in Chemical Projects**: The company is investing in a new ethylene project to enhance its chemical production capabilities and improve profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue performance, with cost control leading to profit elasticity. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.73% [1] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 14.213 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.288 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 645 million yuan in 2023 to 1.392 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 13,202 million yuan - 2023A: 14,213 million yuan - 2024E: 14,854 million yuan - 2025E: 15,716 million yuan - 2026E: 16,288 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 4.5% [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 352 million yuan - 2023A: 645 million yuan - 2024E: 967 million yuan - 2025E: 1,209 million yuan - 2026E: 1,392 million yuan - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 50% [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.23 yuan - 2024E: 0.34 yuan - 2025E: 0.43 yuan - 2026E: 0.49 yuan [2][3] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 2024E is projected at 38.9% - Net Margin: 2024E is projected at 8.3% - Return on Equity (ROE): 2024E is projected at 6.1% [3] Market Position and Trends - The company has experienced a stable sales volume with a slight increase in beer sales, reaching 114.24 million kiloliters in Q3 2024, a year-on-year growth of 0.19% [1] - The average revenue per ton of beer is expected to grow to 4,202 yuan per kiloliter by Q3 2024, reflecting a 2.97% increase compared to H1 [1] - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from cost reductions and improved operational efficiency, which are expected to continue driving profit growth [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's revenue performance aligns with expectations, with a recovery in foreign trade observed [2] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic soft furniture market, benefiting from a robust product, brand, and channel moat [1][3] - The report highlights the potential for industry valuation recovery, driven by domestic renovation subsidy policies and improved demand dynamics [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 18,010 - 2023A: 19,212 - 2024E: 19,268 - 2025E: 21,270 - 2026E: 23,425 - **Year-over-Year Growth Rate**: - 2022A: -2% - 2023A: 7% - 2024E: 0% - 2025E: 10% - 2026E: 10% [1] - **Net Profit (in million CNY)**: - 2022A: 1,812 - 2023A: 2,006 - 2024E: 1,889 - 2025E: 2,128 - 2026E: 2,383 - **Year-over-Year Growth Rate**: - 2022A: 9% - 2023A: 11% - 2024E: -6% - 2025E: 13% - 2026E: 12% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (in CNY)**: - 2022A: 2.20 - 2023A: 2.44 - 2024E: 2.30 - 2025E: 2.59 - 2026E: 2.90 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning towards a "whole home" operation model, focusing on upgrading store formats and optimizing product matrices [1] - The report anticipates that the recovery of foreign trade orders will benefit the company, with expectations for improved demand and industry dynamics [1][3] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its strong brand and distribution network, particularly as it adapts to market changes [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with steady brand operation development. The revenue for the third quarter reached 6.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.65%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 641 million yuan, up 17.42% year-on-year [1][2] - The report indicates that the company has maintained robust organic growth, with a focus on brand operation while further reducing non-core wholesale and distribution business [1][2] - The forecast for revenue growth is optimistic, with expected revenues of 7.882 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 4% year-on-year increase, and projected net profit of 813 million yuan, a 24% increase [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 7,510; 2023A: 7,564; 2024E: 7,882; 2025E: 8,816; 2026E: 9,869 [1] - Year-on-year growth rates: 2022: 6%; 2023: 1%; 2024: 4%; 2025: 12%; 2026: 12% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan): 2022A: 502; 2023A: 656; 2024E: 813; 2025E: 959; 2026E: 1,126 [1] - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: 2022: 19%; 2023: 31%; 2024: 24%; 2025: 18%; 2026: 17% [1] Valuation Metrics - Earnings per share (in yuan): 2022A: 0.96; 2023A: 1.25; 2024E: 1.55; 2025E: 1.82; 2026E: 2.14 [1] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 2022A: 22%; 2023A: 25%; 2024E: 24%; 2025E: 23%; 2026E: 22% [1] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: 2024: 5.6; 2025: 4.5; 2026: 3.6 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand operation business, which has shown significant growth, while reducing the scale of its wholesale and distribution operations [1][2] - The report highlights that the brand operation business has become the main profit source, with a gross profit margin of 91.93% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 18.91 billion yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.38 billion yuan, up 544.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.82 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [1]. - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a net profit margin of 14.8% in Q3 2024, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.6%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 12.5%, up 10.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s Q3 2024 gross margin was 30.4%, reflecting an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year and a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.5 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 39, 28, and 23 times [7]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 27.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32% [4]. Market Position - The company’s products, particularly in the high-end smartphone and automotive sectors, are gaining market share, with the OV50H sensor being widely adopted in domestic high-end smartphones [6]. - The company continues to optimize its product and supply chain structure, driving sustained profitability growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a positive turnaround in Q3 2024, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, marking the first time both metrics turned positive after a decline [1]. - The company is expected to continue reducing its reliance on the metallurgical industry, with growth in sectors such as coal chemical and petrochemical [1]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.167 billion, 1.367 billion, and 1.522 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5, 10.7, and 9.6 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022A: 10,766 million yuan - 2023A: 10,143 million yuan (down 6% YoY) - 2024E: 11,133 million yuan (up 10% YoY) - 2025E: 12,447 million yuan (up 12% YoY) - 2026E: 13,842 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [1][6] - **Net Profit**: - 2022A: 968 million yuan - 2023A: 1,020 million yuan (up 5% YoY) - 2024E: 1,167 million yuan (up 14% YoY) - 2025E: 1,367 million yuan (up 17% YoY) - 2026E: 1,522 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [1][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.56 yuan - 2023A: 0.59 yuan - 2024E: 0.68 yuan - 2025E: 0.79 yuan - 2026E: 0.88 yuan [1][6] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: 1,352 million yuan - Expected to be negative in 2024E at -3,375 million yuan [5][6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has signed several overseas projects, indicating a successful expansion into international markets [2]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its research and development capabilities, particularly in distributed energy and compressed air energy storage technologies [1][2].

Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October shows a marginal improvement at 47.8, up from 47.3 in September, while the services PMI remains strong at 55.3[16] - The U.S. economic surprise index recorded a value of 19.7, indicating that actual economic conditions are better than expected[23] - The latest Beige Book indicates stable economic activity across most regions, with inflation continuing to ease[16] Group 2: Political Landscape and Election Insights - Trump's probability of winning the election has risen to 64.1%, with the Republican Party expected to secure the Senate and House with probabilities of 85% and 52%, respectively[12] - Early voting numbers have dropped significantly, with only 29.1 million ballots cast compared to 2020, reflecting a decrease in voter turnout[10] - In battleground states, Trump leads by narrow margins, with a 2.2% lead in Georgia and a 1.5% lead in Arizona[12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.83% amid strong expectations for Trump's victory and stable U.S. economic conditions[2] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 17 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated election outcomes[2] - Oil and precious metal prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding Trump's policies[2]

评级：无评级 分析师：由子沛 本周行情回顾： 本周 4 支 REITs 上涨，32 支下跌，整体下跌 0.60%，其中易方达广开产园 REIT 涨幅 最大为 1.19%，华夏和达高科 REIT 跌幅最大为 4.53%，同期沪深 300 上涨 0.79%， 中证 500 指数上涨 3.01%，中证全债指数下跌 0.25%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.04%，中债 10 年期国债指数下跌 0.33%，中证转债指数上涨 1.50%。 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 重点事件：1)华安张江 REIT 等共 41 支 REITs 发布 2024 年度 3 季报。2)招商基金蛇 口租赁住房 REIT 将于 10 月 23 日于深交所上市，上市无限售安排的份额为 1.3585 亿份，上市开盘参考价为 2.727 元/份，首日上张 7.15%。3)中金普洛斯 REIT 等 4 单 REITs 发布分红公告。4)红土创新深圳安居 REIT 等共 ...