中泰证券研究所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 人形机器人何时迎来量产？ 2 0 2 4 . 1 0 . 0 7 中泰机械首席分析师：王可 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 核心观点 p 市场预期：机器人主题炒作的2-3年以来，市场审美疲劳与特斯拉机器人进展低于预期使得股价目前处 于低位。市场当前的预期是，特斯拉机器人25年进入限制性生产，年产几千台，26年开始产品出售，在 市场上流通。 p 产业进展：伴随大模型的开源与英伟达cuda机器人生态系统的开放，越来越多参与者涌入此赛道，且运 用局部泛化的能力解锁特定工况，部分机器人公司商业化进展较快。 p 硬件符合的条件：目前供给端硬件的生产制造及成本已不再是约束条件。摄像头、谐波减速器、传感器、 直线执行器等产能较充裕，丝杠此前市场较小，未有存量产能，但目前正进行设备国产化导入，扩产不 是硬约束。 p 软件算法：软件算法的进步是产品功能提升和应用场景扩展的关键。其中，环境理解、智能交互及推理 决策等大脑算法发展相对成熟，而运动控制相关的小脑算法处于较为初期阶段。核心约束在数据采集与 精细运动底层算法上，可观察 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to benchmark indices [27]. Core Insights - The policy environment continues to improve, and the land market remains solid, with a notable decline in land supply and transaction values in Q3 2024, reflecting a cooling market [3][24]. - The average land premium rate has decreased, suggesting cautious expectations from developers regarding future market conditions, contributing to a healthier market environment [10][24]. - The report highlights that while the real estate sales market and land market are currently at low levels, the policy environment is the most accommodative it has been in recent years, which is expected to support valuation recovery in the sector [24][25]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transaction - In Q3 2024, the national land supply was 827 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The total land transfer revenue was 0.72 trillion yuan, down 29.16% year-on-year [3][4]. - Monthly data for July to September 2024 showed land supply and transaction volumes fluctuating, with significant declines in transaction values [4][5]. Premium Rates - The average land premium rate in Q3 2024 was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from Q3 2023. Premium rates for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities were 6.75%, 3.14%, and 3.25%, respectively [10][19]. - The report notes that cities in the Pearl River Delta region exhibited significantly higher premium rates compared to other regions [10]. Auction Failure Rates - The average auction failure rate in Q3 2024 was 1.08%, a significant decrease from 10.33% in Q3 2023, indicating improved market conditions [15][19]. High-Value and High-Premium Land Analysis - In Q3 2024, four high-value land parcels were identified, all located in first-tier cities, with total prices exceeding 5 billion yuan [16][19]. - The number of cities with land premium rates exceeding 20% increased from July to September 2024, indicating a potential recovery in land value expectations [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-safety leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, as well as property management firms like China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "Network Data Security Management Regulations" in 2025 marks a new phase in data governance and aims to standardize network data processing activities, ensuring data security and promoting lawful and effective use of network data [2][3] - The regulations emphasize the protection of personal and organizational rights, as well as national security and public interests [3] - The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive legal framework for data governance, which is crucial for addressing data security risks associated with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing [3] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes that the "Network Data Security Management Regulations" were reported by Xinhua on September 30, 2024, and will take effect on January 1, 2025 [3] - The regulations include general requirements for network data security management, detailed personal information protection rules, and obligations for network platform service providers [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the network security and data security sectors, such as Deepin Technology, Qi Anxin, and Sangfor Technologies, as they are likely to benefit from the new regulations [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The acquisition of Covestro by ADNOC has been finalized, and policy enhancements are expected to promote valuation recovery in the basic chemical industry [1] - The basic chemical industry has shown a year-on-year increase in revenue and profit for Q2 2024, but capital expenditure has seen a negative growth for three consecutive quarters [8] - The report highlights that the current market conditions present a good opportunity for investment in quality stocks within the chemical sector, especially as macroeconomic expectations improve [8] Summary by Sections Key Investment Points - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the macroeconomic environment and the potential for recovery in the real estate market, which could boost domestic chemical demand [1] - The report notes that the capital expenditure in the industry has been declining, reflecting reduced expansion intentions among companies [8] Oil Industry Tracking - OPEC+ has indicated a weakening of supply-side support for oil prices, with geopolitical uncertainties remaining a concern [8] - The report mentions that Brent oil prices have recently increased due to escalating geopolitical tensions, highlighting the need to monitor the situation closely [8] Chemical Industry Tracking - The report discusses various segments within the chemical industry, including food additives, tire manufacturing, refrigerants, and MDI, noting price stability and potential for price increases in certain areas [2][3] - The report indicates that the supply of refrigerants is expected to contract significantly due to quota restrictions, leading to a notable recovery in industry conditions [2] Specific Company Insights - Companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengrui, and Baofeng Energy are highlighted as key players with strong growth potential in the current market environment [1] - The report also mentions the performance of major oil companies, noting their focus on shareholder returns and capital management amidst fluctuating oil prices [8]

Group 1: Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) in Aerospace and Defense - CMC materials are emerging as crucial high-temperature structural materials due to their excellent properties such as high-temperature resistance, oxidation resistance, and low density [3] - The demand for CMC is driven by advancements in aerospace engines, with the domestic CMC market projected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2028 [3] - CMC's application in high-temperature structural wave-absorbing materials is gaining traction, particularly in stealth equipment and advanced nuclear energy sectors [3] Group 2: Housing Loan Rate Adjustments - A batch adjustment phase is set to lower the interest rate for most existing housing loans to no less than "LPR - 30 basis points" by October 31, 2024, benefiting approximately 50 million households [4] - The normalization phase starting November 1, 2024, will allow further adjustments to the loan rate and repricing cycle through market negotiations [4] - The adjustments are expected to alleviate interest burdens on residents, stimulate consumption, and ultimately stabilize bank scales and reduce risks [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant rebound in September 2024, with a 21.34% increase, outperforming the broader market [5] - Key sub-sectors such as medical services and biopharmaceuticals showed remarkable growth, indicating strong recovery potential driven by policy support [5] - The report suggests a focus on both recovery and growth opportunities within the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in consumer healthcare and innovative drugs [5] Group 4: Cement Industry Price Adjustments - The cement industry in the Yangtze River Delta has initiated a fifth round of price increases, with prices rising by 30-100 yuan per ton, supported by production cuts [7] - The government's policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to boost demand for cement, enhancing the industry's profitability [7] - The introduction of carbon trading regulations is anticipated to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities, further improving the industry's supply dynamics [7] Group 5: Financial Technology Sector - Recent policies from regulatory bodies are aimed at stabilizing and developing the capital market, which is expected to benefit the financial technology sector significantly [8] - Increased trading volumes and market activity have been observed, with a notable rise in A-share transactions, indicating a bullish sentiment [8] - The financial technology sector is positioned as a key beneficiary of improved liquidity and market conditions, with a focus on undervalued stocks [8] Group 6: Digital Transformation in Real Estate - Recent government policies have been implemented to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of digital transformation in the construction sector [6] - Digital companies in the real estate sector are expected to benefit from a shift towards more refined and innovative operational models [6] - The report highlights the potential for digital tools to enhance operational efficiency and adaptability in the construction industry [6] Group 7: Data Security Regulations - The new Data Security Management Regulations set to take effect in 2025 aim to enhance data protection and promote the lawful use of data across various sectors [9] - The regulations will establish clear responsibilities for data processors and improve the security of sensitive data, particularly in critical industries [9] - Companies involved in data security and management are expected to benefit from the implementation of these regulations, which will enhance the overall data governance framework [9]

Global Manufacturing Trends - The global manufacturing PMI for September recorded a significant drop to 48.8, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a move towards contraction[15] - Emerging markets experienced a decline of 1 percentage point, marking the first entry into contraction territory in 19 months[18] - New orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 47.3, reaching a historical low for the past three years[21] Regional Insights - In the United States, the ISM manufacturing PMI remained flat at 47.2, with production index rising by 5 percentage points but employment and price indices showing significant declines[39] - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, up 0.7 percentage points, with production index increasing to 51.2, indicating a seasonal recovery[28] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.0, reflecting continued contraction in the region[19] Economic Implications - The current global manufacturing environment suggests a need for more policy support to stimulate economic activity[15] - Seasonal recovery patterns observed in China contrast with the overall global trend, highlighting regional disparities in manufacturing performance[21] - The persistent contraction in emerging markets raises concerns about global economic stability and growth prospects[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry [3][25]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial technology as a key driver in the current market, supported by various favorable policies aimed at enhancing liquidity and encouraging long-term investments [2][22]. - Recent policies from the central bank and regulatory bodies have established a solid foundation for the long-term development of the capital market, with a focus on promoting equity public funds [7][10]. - The influx of both domestic and foreign capital has significantly increased market activity, particularly in the financial technology sector, which is seen as undervalued and poised for recovery [2][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Environment - The report highlights the recognition of finance as a "national key asset," with recent policies from the central bank and regulatory authorities aimed at stabilizing and developing the capital market [7][10]. - Key measures include lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which are expected to inject liquidity into the market and support long-term investment strategies [8][12]. 2. Capital Inflow - Foreign capital has seen a significant increase, with the northbound trading volume reaching 3569.32 billion yuan on September 30, nearly doubling from previous levels [10][12]. - Domestic capital is also being bolstered by lower interest rates and innovative monetary policy tools, which are designed to enhance liquidity in the stock market [12][14]. 3. Market Activity - The report notes a surge in trading volume, with A-share trading reaching approximately 8.5 trillion yuan from September 20 to September 30, and a single-day volume exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan on September 30 [18][19]. - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a bellwether for the market, with historical data showing substantial price increases during previous bull markets, indicating strong potential for recovery [18][20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued financial technology stocks such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Guiding Compass, as these are expected to benefit from the current favorable market conditions [22].

Group 1: Market Overview - The core reason for the significant rebound in the market at the end of September is the unexpected shift in policy, which greatly boosted market risk appetite, focusing on macroeconomic and market policies [1][2] - The macro policy has clearly shifted towards stabilizing growth, with the Politburo meeting highlighting the urgency and importance of stabilizing economic expectations [1][2] - The overall market policy exceeded expectations, with enhanced financial status and regulatory relaxation attracting new capital into the market [1][2] Group 2: Market Phases - The market is expected to experience three phases: broad-based rally, differentiation, and fundamental verification [1][2] - The broad-based rally phase is primarily driven by risk appetite and micro liquidity, currently in the mid to late stage [1][2] - The differentiation phase will see a shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks, focusing on structural logic such as new productivity, mergers and acquisitions, and market capitalization management [1][2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current market phase is in the mid to late stage of the broad-based rally, with a recommendation to focus on large-cap blue-chip stocks due to abundant micro liquidity [3][4] - The second phase emphasizes capital market services for the real economy, with core focus areas including semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, AI, and state-owned enterprises [2][3] - The third phase highlights performance elasticity, focusing on small-cap stocks in cyclical sectors such as consumption, upstream resources, and construction materials [2][3] Group 4: Key Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks for October include Jinjiang Hotels, Dongpeng Beverage, Haier Home, BYD, Guolian Aviation, Conch Cement, Wanhua Chemical, Shandong Gold, Oat Technology, and Yaoji Technology [3][4] - The rationale for recommending these stocks includes expected performance releases, improved valuation, and resilience in their respective sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the industry [3][25]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial technology as a key driver in the current market, supported by various favorable policies aimed at enhancing market liquidity and encouraging long-term investments [2][22]. - Recent policies from the central bank and regulatory bodies have established a solid foundation for the long-term development of the capital market, with a focus on promoting equity public funds [7][10]. - The influx of both domestic and foreign capital has significantly increased market activity, particularly in the financial technology sector, which is seen as undervalued and poised for recovery [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Environment - The report highlights the designation of finance as a "national key asset," with significant policies introduced to support the development of equity public funds [7][10]. - Key measures include lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to enhance market liquidity, as well as promoting long-term capital inflow through various regulatory frameworks [8][9]. 2. Capital Inflow - Foreign capital has seen a notable increase, with the northbound trading volume reaching 3569.32 billion yuan on September 30, nearly doubling from previous levels [10][12]. - Domestic capital is also being bolstered by lower benchmark interest rates and innovative monetary policy tools, which are injecting liquidity into the stock market [12][13]. 3. Market Activity - The report notes a significant increase in trading volume, with A-share trading volume totaling approximately 8.5 trillion yuan from September 20 to September 30, and a single-day volume exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan on September 30 [18][19]. - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a bellwether for the bull market, with historical data showing substantial price increases during previous bull markets [18][20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financial technology companies such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Guiding Compass, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions and policy support [22].

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 国庆节后市场行情或如何演绎？ 证券研究报告/策略周刊 2024 年 10 月 6 日 投资要点 ◼ 一、国庆节后市场行情或如何演绎？ 本周一市场延续上涨势头，创业板指上涨 15.36%；港股本周共交易四天，恒生指 数本周上涨 10.20%，恒生科技指数本周上涨 17.38%。上周政策预期加强，市场 热度迅速上升，假期期间港股以及美股中概股整体表现较好，我们预计节后中国 资产热度或持续。 上周我们分析到：9 月 26 日非常规政治局会议重点分析研究当前经济形势和经济 工作，代表着高层级政策阶段性重心的变化，是真正能够带来市场中级以上反弹 的政策变化。但是，就当前来看，本次政治局会议并非是"08 年大水漫灌式"的 框架反转。参考历史经验，这种力度的政策重心变化往往会带来月度及季度级别 的中级反弹。 ...