Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant catalytic growth, leading to a substantial increase in industry prosperity [8][17]. - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Administration by the China National Space Administration marks a new phase in the development of commercial aerospace, enhancing stability and transparency in the industry [21]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket signifies a breakthrough in China's commercial liquid rocket capabilities, supporting satellite internet and commercial remote sensing needs [10][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,915.34 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2,530.17 billion yuan [2]. Key Developments - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch on December 3, 2025, represents a critical milestone in the commercial aerospace sector, enabling a payload capacity of over 20 tons and reducing launch costs significantly [10][25]. - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) Military Technology Information and Equipment Expo highlights advancements in military technology and the integration of civilian and military sectors [13][26]. Focus Areas - **Aerospace Equipment**: The Civil Aviation Administration is seeking opinions on emergency medical equipment for large aircraft, indicating a focus on enhancing safety standards [11][23]. - **Military Electronics**: Companies such as Gaode Infrared and Tianjian Technology are highlighted as key players in the military electronics sector [19][22]. - **Nuclear Equipment**: China and France are enhancing cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, focusing on technology innovation and safety [30][32]. Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 2.82% in the past week, outperforming other major indices [33][38]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military industry is 69.3 times, with aerospace equipment at 73.6 times and space equipment at 317.8 times, indicating high investor interest [39][44].

MRO 集约化采购时代风起，踏浪增量时代市场红利 ——咸亨国际研究报告 通用设备 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 Email：wangke03@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525060005 Email：kouhj@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 410.28 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 403.39 | | 市价(元) | 19.83 | | 市值(百万元) | 8,135.90 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 7,999.29 | 咸亨国际（605056.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关报告 MRO 龙头扩展或兼具横、纵向。 从横向角度看，公司近三年新业务的拓展，其初始毛利率或不如电网领域，盖因规模 扩张总是先行，更深度的服务往往建立于客户关系的逐步成熟和新领域的理解加深， 且电网领域的深耕和地位也助力公司横向迈入其他大型企业集团的准入门槛。 从纵向角度看，如咸亨国际希望通过发展无人机业务来提升毛利率，及基于对终端客 户作业场景的深度理解，沿着产业价值链向上延伸，构 ...

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周） 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 何？》2025-08-03 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 06 日 报告摘要 一、A 股： 二、港股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场整体上涨，其中创业板指涨幅居前，上涨 1.86%。从风格 指数来看，中盘价值和中盘成长表现突出，分别上涨 2.95%和 2.72%。市场日均成交 额为 1.7 万亿，环比小幅下滑 2.35%。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周市场情绪受到多重因素影响。一方面，国产 GPU 企业摩尔线程科 创板上市首日大涨超 400%，提振了市场对硬科技板块的信心。同时，AI 手机概念持 续火热，相关板块表现活跃，反映出市场对 AI 产业前景的积极 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [4][32]. Core Viewpoints - The frozen food industry is expected to see demand recovery, with product innovation playing a crucial role in overcoming challenges [6][29]. - The revenue from the downstream catering sector is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend in 2026, while profit margins are expected to gradually improve due to cost control and product innovation [6][29]. - The market size of China's frozen food sector is projected to reach 213.1 billion by 2025, up from 168.8 billion at the end of 2022 [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The frozen food industry faced a slowdown in growth during the first three quarters of 2025 due to fluctuations in catering demand and other adverse factors, but signs of recovery were noted in Q4 [6][29]. - The total market value of the industry is approximately 45,795.07 billion [1]. Market Trends - The national catering revenue from January to October 2025 reached 46,188 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [7]. - The chain rate in the catering industry is expected to rise to 25% in 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the U.S. and Japan [8]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the frozen food category in supermarkets grew by 5%, contrasting with a decline of 9.5% in the same period last year [9]. - There is a structural shift in the market, with traditional staple categories under pressure while snack categories like pizza and frozen dim sum show strong growth potential [9]. Channel Development - The frozen food companies are actively responding to the demand from large chain supermarkets, leading to an increase in sales through these channels [15]. - New retail channels are also showing significant growth, contributing to the overall performance of the industry [15]. Cost and Profitability - The prices of most food raw materials have decreased, alleviating some cost pressures for frozen food companies, although packaging costs remain high [21]. - The combined revenue growth of key companies in the frozen food sector was 3.0% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q3 [29]. Company-Specific Insights - Anjiu Foods is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery in catering and the continuous expansion of new customers, leading to a potential increase in profitability [31]. - Qianwei Yangchu is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence through both B2B and B2C channels, indicating strong long-term growth potential [31]. - Lihai Foods is actively developing new products and strengthening partnerships with key clients, positioning itself well for future growth in the baking sector [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints, despite short-term pressures from low consumption rates in certain regions [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for coal prices to rise as winter approaches, with increased demand from power plants for stock replenishment [7]. - The introduction of stricter safety regulations is likely to impact coal production rates, further tightening supply [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,360.92 billion [2]. - The circulating market value of the industry is around 18,986.29 billion [2]. 2. Price Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.512 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.22% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.53% [8]. - The price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port is reported at 790 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.78% [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 5.839 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a week-on-week growth of 7.91% [8]. - The report anticipates that as winter progresses, coal demand will increase, particularly in southern regions affected by cold weather [7]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and Jinneng Holding Group, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in coal prices [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with high elasticity in their stock performance, particularly those involved in thermal coal production [7].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the segmentation of demand in the bottled water industry, highlighting a shift from price competition to value competition as consumer preferences evolve towards health and functional benefits [5][27][36] - The market for bottled water in China is projected to reach CNY 224.23 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3%, indicating a complex competitive landscape with varying performances among leading brands [15][16][36] - The focus of competition is shifting towards resource control, particularly water sources, as companies seek to differentiate themselves through quality and sustainability [33][36] Market Overview - The bottled water market is experiencing a diversification in consumer segments, with both budget and premium products seeing growth [17][20] - Major brands like Nongfu Spring hold a 33% market share, while Wahaha and Yibao follow with 19% and 17% respectively, showcasing a clear market leader and the impact of brand strategies on market positioning [15][16] - Regional brands, such as Quan Yang Quan, are capitalizing on strong distributor relationships and local cultural ties, achieving significant revenue growth [16][36] Pricing and Cost Trends - The price index for bottled water has shown a downward trend, particularly during peak seasons, as companies adopt "price for volume" strategies to maintain market share [17][20] - The cost of PET materials has been declining since 2024, providing manufacturers with the leverage to engage in price competition [20][21] Channel Dynamics - The report notes a significant shift in distribution channels, with traditional channels under pressure while special channels (特通渠道) are experiencing robust growth, indicating changing consumer purchasing behaviors [21][26] - Special channels, such as those serving specific venues like billiard halls and highway facilities, have seen GMV growth rates of 47% and 25% respectively [21][24] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue focusing on value enhancement and health trends, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer functional benefits [27][29] - The competition is anticipated to transition from price wars to value wars, with brands needing to enhance product quality and adapt to diverse consumer scenarios [27][36] - The report suggests that companies with strong product matrices and quick market response capabilities, like Nongfu Spring, will likely lead in this evolving landscape [36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown a steady revenue growth of 8.50% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.142 billion yuan [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was a loss of 62 million yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous year [4] - The company is facing pressure on performance due to rising AI server costs and increased advertising expenses, which may impact short-term results [4] - Long-term prospects remain positive due to the company's unique multi-modal capabilities and the potential for growth as industry technology matures [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1,481 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 86 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 113% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.63 yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,573 million yuan, 1,787 million yuan, and 2,065 million yuan respectively [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of 43 million yuan, with subsequent years showing a recovery to 21 million yuan in 2026 and 41 million yuan in 2027 [5] Cost and Expense Analysis - The operating costs for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 42.24% year-on-year, primarily due to rising AI server fees and platform service costs [4] - The company’s sales expenses are projected to rise from 849 million yuan in 2024 to 1,094 million yuan in 2027 [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "dual-mode drive" strategy, enhancing its AI capabilities and product offerings [4] - Significant upgrades to existing products and the introduction of new AI-driven features are expected to open new revenue streams [4]

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is a systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape, influenced by the U.S.-China rivalry and the shift towards a "China model" focusing on supply chain security, technology, manufacturing, and military industries [3] - The "Fifteen Five" strategy emphasizes proactive policy measures and strategic opportunities, contrasting with the previous "Fourteen Five" period, indicating a stronger focus on national strength and institutional expectations in capital market pricing [3][4] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in managing expectations and addressing local government debt risks, with a projected "slow bull" market characterized by steady index growth and accelerated market rotation [4] Group 2 - Key time points for the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S.-China relations include potential policy shifts following the mid-2026 Federal Reserve chair transition and significant diplomatic engagements, which could influence market risk appetite [4] - The 2026 market is anticipated to experience structural rotation, driven by the global reconstruction and the initiation of the "Fifteen Five" plan, with a shift in capital market pricing logic from short-term profits to long-term national strength and institutional expectations [6][7] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: technology innovation focusing on AI, upstream resource strategic positioning, new consumption opportunities, and safe asset allocations amid geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is the systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape [6][29][37] - The ongoing geopolitical competition and the shift in national power dynamics have elevated the strategic position of capital markets, reflecting long-term expectations of national strength and institutional stability rather than short-term profit fluctuations [7][41][43] Group 2 - The report identifies two key time points in 2026 regarding the Federal Reserve and US-China relations, which will significantly influence market dynamics [8][10][62] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite in emerging markets, including A-shares [10][60][61] Group 3 - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in "debt management" and "expectation management," with a focus on stabilizing local government debt risks through asset securitization [12][46] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic, with accelerated rotation and the importance of retail investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator [12][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the significance of the AI industry, particularly in storage chips and humanoid robots, as key areas for investment due to their strategic importance in the AI era [20][22] - The focus on "反内卷" (anti-involution) will benefit upstream resources critical to national competitiveness, such as lithium and graphite materials, which are expected to see increased demand [22][23] Group 5 - The new consumption trends among younger generations are highlighted as structural opportunities, with sectors like gaming and pet products poised for growth [23] - The report suggests that safety asset allocations, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, will become increasingly attractive amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [24][25]