Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and an expected increase in ticket prices, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow [6][9] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on major airlines with significant fleet sizes and strong cyclical attributes, such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, as well as smaller regional airlines like Huaxia Airlines and low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines [6][9] 2025 Aviation Review - Global aviation growth is projected to slow down, with IATA forecasting a 5.8% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for 2025, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead with a 9% growth [7][21] - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to achieve full-year profitability [7][19] - The average passenger load factor in China reached 85.12%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7][39] 2026 Aviation Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with international travel demand benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion abroad, leading to optimistic growth forecasts [6][9] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year where the positive cycle of volume and price in the aviation market becomes widely recognized, with a shift in growth engines from domestic to international markets [6][9] - The report highlights that the average ticket prices are expected to rise due to reduced competition and high load factors, with the industry moving away from aggressive price wars [7][49] Supply Side Analysis - The global backlog of aircraft orders has reached a record high of 17,000 units, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a supply gap [7][55] - Major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are struggling to meet delivery targets, which may continue to constrain capacity growth in the coming years [7][55] - The report notes that the utilization rates of existing aircraft have reached peak levels, limiting the potential for further supply increases [7][49] Demand Side Analysis - The report indicates that international travel demand is expected to remain strong, particularly due to favorable visa policies and a growing preference for short-haul destinations among Chinese travelers [7][91] - Domestic business travel is projected to recover gradually, while leisure travel demand remains robust, with a notable increase in the number of young and elderly travelers [7][86] - The report highlights that the recovery in inbound tourism is also expected to continue, supported by visa-free entry policies for foreign visitors [7][100]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI as a driving force in the semiconductor industry, predicting significant capital expenditure growth in the future [4] - It highlights the expanding infrastructure gap in AI, driven by surging demand for training and inference [5] - The report notes that the endpoint AI singularity is approaching, with short-term focus on mobile phones and glasses, and long-term on robotics [5] Summary by Sections AI and Semiconductor Industry - AI has significantly boosted the semiconductor sector over the past two years, with expectations for continued high capital expenditure [4] - The infrastructure gap in AI is widening due to increased demand for training and inference capabilities [5] Market Opportunities - The report identifies key market opportunities in the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related applications [4] - It suggests that the upcoming trends in endpoint AI will focus on mobile devices and wearable technology, with a long-term view towards robotics [5]

Group 1: Energy Storage - The demand logic for energy storage is being reshaped, with a global ceiling opening up due to policy shifts from being driven by regulations to being driven by value, leading to high growth in future demand [4][10] - In China, new energy storage installations reached 34.9GW/89.3GWh from January to October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 90%/91% [11] - The profitability model for energy storage is improving, with the internal rate of return (IRR) for a hypothetical independent storage project in Gansu estimated at 8.5% for total investment and 14.8% for equity [20][21] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see stable growth, with offshore wind power projections indicating a doubling of annual new installations compared to the previous five-year plan [6] - The price of domestic onshore wind turbines has shown a clear upward trend since late 2024, with profitability expected to recover significantly by 2026 [6] - The gearbox market for wind power is projected to have a market space exceeding 40 billion, with a focus on leading companies in the industry chain [6] Group 3: International Markets - In the U.S., energy storage installations increased by 11.3GW/34.3GWh from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11%/24% [23] - The European market is experiencing a surge in energy storage demand, with the UK and Germany showing significant increases in planned and installed capacities [37][32] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and India, are seeing substantial growth in energy storage projects driven by favorable policies and abundant solar resources [42][48] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch in the energy storage integration sector include Haibo Shichuang, Sungrow Power, and Canadian Solar, which are expected to benefit first from the demand surge [6][52] - In the PCS (Power Conversion System) segment, independent third-party companies like Sangfor Electric, Shenghong Co., and Kehua Data are recommended due to their favorable market positioning [56][57] - For temperature control solutions in energy storage, companies like InvoTech and Tongfei Co. are highlighted as leaders benefiting from the evolving market dynamics [61][64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained demand in the soft drink industry, highlighting structural opportunities under new consumption trends [3][4][5] - The soft drink industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.6% as of November 28, 2025, with a relative underperformance against the Shanghai Composite Index and the food and beverage index [3][4] - The report indicates that the sales volume of soft drinks in China has maintained a mid-to-high single-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases while prices remain stable [4][5] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that positive price signals have emerged, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turning positive in October 2025, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a narrowing decline [4][5] - The report forecasts a structural prosperity driven by health and functionality trends in the soft drink market, with a focus on new categories and channels that stimulate consumption growth [5][6] - The beverage industry is expected to continue benefiting from cost advantages, particularly in sugar and PET prices, while the price of corrugated paper is anticipated to rise [6][7] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is characterized by increasing concentration and platformization, with leading companies enhancing their advantages in revenue resilience, growth, and profitability [7][8] - The report suggests that the beverage sector's recovery post-pandemic has outpaced other fast-moving consumer goods, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% from 2022 to 2024 [5][6] - Investment recommendations focus on selecting leading companies in high-growth segments such as functional beverages and sugar-free tea, while also considering the ongoing cost advantages in raw materials and packaging [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with significant potential in AI edge solutions and robotics [7] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to the exclusion of the previously sold business unit [5][7] - The smart module segment has become a new growth direction, accounting for over 55% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [7] - The AI Stack and robotics initiatives have entered the productization and delivery phase, indicating strong future growth potential [7] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 5.366 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69% [5] - The net profit for the same period was 316 million yuan, down 51.50% year-on-year [5] - The revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.659 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.56% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 98 million yuan, down 69.14% [5] - Excluding the impact of the divested business, revenue grew by 7.32% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 2.19% [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.73%, with a net margin of 5.84%, both showing improvement from the previous quarter [7] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 7.716 billion, 8.189 billion, 8.125 billion, 9.726 billion, and 11.622 billion yuan respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are 564 million, 668 million, 452 million, 637 million, and 876 million yuan respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.74, 0.87, 0.50, 0.71, and 0.97 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the steady progress of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the potential of new technologies and the synergy between solar energy and storage [1] - The report predicts that China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2025 will reach 270-300 GW, maintaining a year-on-year growth of -3% to 8% [2][7] - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry in China will directly influence global installation expectations, with China's share of global new installations expected to remain above 50% in 2024 and 2025 [7][10] Group 2 - The report outlines the trend of market-oriented electricity production, noting that the introduction of market mechanisms has led to a decrease in photovoltaic grid connection prices, impacting investment decisions [13][14] - It highlights that the photovoltaic supply-demand mismatch is being addressed through self-discipline and legal reforms, which are expected to improve the industry's overcapacity situation [18][29] - The report discusses the profitability recovery of the photovoltaic sector, with net profits of the photovoltaic equipment sector reaching historical peaks in 2023, followed by a forecasted recovery in 2026 as supply-side reforms take effect [22][56] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition in the photovoltaic market, suggesting that technological and regional sales differentiation will be key to future competitiveness [42][44] - It notes that the TOPCon technology is expected to lead the next generation of photovoltaic products, with significant efficiency improvements anticipated [47][50] - The synergy between solar energy and storage is highlighted as a crucial path for future transformation, with both the Chinese and U.S. markets showing strong growth potential in energy storage [51][55] Group 4 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, including companies involved in polysilicon production, new technologies, solar-storage integration, and overseas capacity expansion [56] - It suggests that companies like LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar are well-positioned to benefit from the growing energy storage market [55][56] - The report concludes that the overall photovoltaic industry is expected to recover from previous losses, with a focus on sustainable growth driven by technological advancements and market reforms [56]

Group 1 - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on December 8, 2025, emphasized a stable policy tone while addressing "international economic and trade struggles," indicating a proactive approach to external pressures and uncertainties [3][10]. - The meeting highlighted that the current economic situation is "overall stable, with progress," and that significant progress has been made in risk mitigation in key areas, suggesting a balanced approach to economic management [3][10]. - The report indicates that fiscal policy will become more proactive, with potential increases in deficit ratios and the scale of special bonds to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and major livelihood areas [6][11]. Group 2 - The focus on "new quality productivity" and the construction of a unified national market is expected to drive industrial upgrades and optimize competitive structures, with priority given to high-end manufacturing and AI sectors [6][14]. - The meeting reiterated the importance of expanding domestic demand while optimizing supply, emphasizing the resilience of consumption and the need for improved efficiency in production systems [6][14]. - The report suggests that addressing issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers will be crucial for stabilizing employment and ensuring social welfare, reflecting a commitment to safeguarding livelihoods [6][14]. Group 3 - The investment recommendations highlight three main themes: the strong direction of new quality productivity, the potential for industry leaders to benefit from improved competitive dynamics, and the emphasis on service consumption over physical goods [6][12]. - The report suggests that the focus on expanding domestic demand will continue to be a priority, with policies aimed at enhancing service-oriented and livelihood-related consumption rather than merely stimulating durable goods [6][12]. - The emphasis on risk management and the stability of the economic bottom line indicates a cautious yet proactive approach to maintaining market confidence and reducing uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [6][12].

分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 11 月金融数据前瞻： 预计新增贷款 3000-4500 亿，社融增速维持 8.5% 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 158,616.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 151,894.83 | 增长点及投资映射》2025-11-30 2025-11-16 3、《银行角度看 10 月社融： 信贷 平淡、政府债高基数；季初存款搬家 再现》2025-11-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 08 日 报告摘要 风险提示事件：经济下滑超预期，经济恢复不及预期，数据更新不及时。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 测算 11 月新增人民币规模介于 3000-4500 亿元之间，同比少增 1300-2800 ...

Core Insights - The overall judgment indicates that both domestic and overseas AI-driven demand will continue to grow, leading to stock price performance in the AIDC industry. The overseas market, particularly in the U.S., is experiencing tight supply and demand for power equipment, which presents opportunities for domestic supply chains to expand internationally. Additionally, domestic capital expenditure on power grids is steadily increasing [3]. AIDC Power Supply: Continuous Beta and Clear Industry Trends - The capital expenditure of major overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) is expected to continue increasing, driving high demand for AIDC. The total capital expenditure of the four major overseas CSPs (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) is projected to grow at rates of 34% in 2021, 20% in 2022, -7% in 2023, and 55% in 2024, with a significant increase of 71% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - Domestic CSPs have also seen a resurgence in capital expenditure, with a staggering 184% year-on-year growth in 2024 and 87% in the first three quarters of 2025 [13]. - The power consumption of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with cabinet power levels projected to exceed 200kW in the near future, indicating a need for technological upgrades in both internal and external power supplies [20][25]. - The transition from three-level to two-level voltage reduction in internal power supplies is anticipated, which will streamline power supply processes [28]. - External power supplies are shifting from UPS to HVDC and SST solutions, reflecting a clear trend towards direct current and medium voltage systems [32]. Power Equipment Export: Continuous High Demand - The U.S. has seen a rapid increase in new power installations since 2020, with growth rates of 1.20%, 2.42%, 0.98%, 2.14%, and 3.47% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust demand for power equipment [59]. - China's transformer exports reached 46.5 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 40.20% year-on-year increase, with other power equipment exports also showing significant growth [77]. Domestic Power Grid: Continued Investment and Recovery - The approval of ultra-high voltage direct current projects is progressing steadily, with a rich pipeline of projects expected to drive growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [81]. - The total bidding amount for power grid projects has reached 78.7 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 20% year-on-year increase, significantly surpassing the 7.61% growth rate of 2024 [84]. - The domestic smart meter replacement cycle is expected to smooth out, with a projected increase in bidding quantities in 2026-2027 as new standards are introduced [90].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index fell 0.21% for the whole week; short - term pure bond and medium - long - term pure bond funds were flat and fell 0.05% respectively; the CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the SSE Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index fell 0.10% each [2] - As of December 5, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 612 million yuan in the recent week, with interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs having a net outflow of 1.647 billion yuan, a net inflow of 2.529 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 269 million yuan respectively [4] - All types of bond ETF products' net values were adjusted last week. The Treasury Bond ETF Dongcai performed well, rising 0.05%, while the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF adjusted significantly, falling 1.94% [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Flow - As of December 5, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 612 million yuan in the recent week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 1.647 billion yuan, a net inflow of 2.529 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 269 million yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing bonds had a net outflow of 121 million yuan, corporate bonds had a net inflow of 856 million yuan, and urban investment bonds were flat. Market - making credit bonds had a net outflow of 1.521 billion yuan, and sci - tech innovation bonds had a net inflow of 3.313 billion yuan. The cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 72.304 billion yuan, 447.357 billion yuan, and 23.349 billion yuan respectively, totaling 543.01 billion yuan [4] 3.2 Net Value Performance - As of December 5, 2025, last week, the Treasury Bond ETF Dongcai rose 0.05% for the whole week, while the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF fell 1.94%. The circulating market values of the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi decreased by 1.859 billion yuan and 1.337 billion yuan respectively. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF rose 0.07% and 0.25% respectively last week [5] 3.3 Performance of Credit Bond ETFs and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - As of December 5, 2025, the median net asset values per unit of credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0098 and 0.9979 respectively, falling 0.11% each for the whole week. Among credit - bond ETFs, Credit - bond ETF GF, Credit - bond ETF Boshi, and Credit - bond ETF Tianhong performed relatively well, falling 0.08%. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Yongying, Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Huitianfu, and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Taikang performed relatively well. As of December 5, 2025, the median discount rates of credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 27BP and 23BP respectively [6] 3.4 Duration Tracking of Credit - type ETFs - As of December 5, 2025, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate - bond ETFs, and urban - investment - bond ETFs were 0.38 years, 1.85 years, and 2.20 years respectively. Among market - making credit - bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.85 years and 2.88 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index were 3.50 years, 3.54 years, and 3.22 years respectively [7]