Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for China's export share to increase, highlighting that despite recent challenges, there is room for growth in the global market [3][5] - It emphasizes that the decline in China's export share from its peak in 2021 is primarily due to factors such as export prices and exchange rates, rather than a decrease in competitiveness [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Share Trends - China's export share of global amounts reached a historical high of 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is not reflective of a loss in competitiveness, as the quantity of exports continues to rise [3][4] Factors Influencing Export Prices - Potential trade friction risks may limit the ability to lower prices for certain Chinese export products, while optimized export tax rebate policies could enhance export prices [4] - The report anticipates that the year-on-year decline in China's export prices will narrow, with a possibility of turning positive in certain phases due to a low base effect [4] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB [4] - Increased use of RMB in international trade financing and payments is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [4] Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment suggests that China's export share of global amounts is expected to begin a continuous recovery in 2026, stabilizing around 17% by 2030 [5] - This assessment indicates that there is still over a 2 percentage point potential increase in China's export share compared to current levels, suggesting resilience in future export growth [5]

Export Trends - China's export amount as a share of global exports peaked at 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025[5] - The share of China's export quantity in global exports is expected to increase from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the third quarter of 2025[12] - The decline in China's export amount share is attributed to low export prices and currency depreciation, with a cumulative price drop of 10.1% from 2023 to 2025[15] Factors Supporting Export Growth - China's export quantity share is projected to continue rising due to accelerated industrial upgrading and a shift towards high-value-added products[12] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has diversified China's export markets, increasing shares in emerging economies like ASEAN and Africa[17] - Trade friction risks are expected to limit further price declines, with potential for stabilization or slight increases in export prices due to policy adjustments[39] Currency and Economic Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by a resilient export sector and a target for GDP growth of 4.5%-5.0% in 2026[61] - The yuan's effective exchange rate has declined by 16.12% since March 2022, but a recovery is anticipated as trade surpluses continue[56] - By 2025, the yuan is projected to appreciate by 4.4% against the dollar, with increased usage in international trade financing and payments[70]

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

医疗器械 渠道积淀筑底，自研驱动与战略拓展打开成长空间 可孚医疗（301087.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,854 | 2,983 | 3,384 | 4,098 | 5,100 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 增长率 yoy% | -4% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 254 | 312 | 359 | 436 | 551 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -16% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 26% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.22 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.09 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The overall market performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) shows a decline, with the BSE 50 index dropping by 3.59% to close at 1531.55 points as of January 30, 2026. In comparison, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices showed minor fluctuations [4][10]. - The average market capitalization of the 292 constituent stocks on the BSE is 3.207 billion yuan, with a total industry market value of 936.302 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 580.261 billion yuan [4][10]. - The report highlights the top-performing sectors for the week, including Oil and Petrochemicals (33.99%), Media (4.97%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (4.69%), Transportation (2.28%), and Communications (2%) [4][17]. Summary by Sections BSE Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, the BSE has 292 constituent stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.207 billion yuan. The BSE 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices showed minimal changes [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume for the BSE was 28.731 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.20% increase from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 5.88% [15]. New Stocks on BSE - One new stock, Meidele (920119.BJ), was issued during the week. Additionally, several companies are at various stages of the IPO process, including Huadian Guangda, which has been accepted for review [5][22]. Key News from BSE - The BSE released a revised guideline for sustainable development reporting on January 30, 2026, aimed at enhancing the quality of information disclosure among listed companies. This includes new application guidelines focusing on pollutant emissions, energy use, and water resource utilization [6][24]. - The first IPO of the year was accepted for Beijing Huadian Guangda Environmental Co., which specializes in new catalytic materials for air pollution control, aiming to raise approximately 260 million yuan [6][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to perform well in 2026, including Data Centers, Robotics, Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Military Information Technology. Specific companies highlighted include KLT, Suzhou Axis, and Hualing Co. [25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is expected to show significant results in 2026, with a focus on high-quality development and investment opportunities in various sectors [6][25]. Summary by Sections BSE Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, the BSE has 292 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.207 billion [4][10]. - The BSE 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59%, closing at 1531.55 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices showed minor fluctuations [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume for the week was 28.731 billion, an increase of 7.20% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 5.88% [4][15]. Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors on the BSE for the week were: - Oil and Petrochemicals: 33.99% - Media: 4.97% - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 4.69% - Transportation: 2.28% - Communication: 2% [4][17]. New Stocks - One new stock was issued during the week, Meidel (920119.BJ), with updates on the status of other companies in the review process [5][22]. Key News - The BSE released a revised "Guidelines for the Preparation of Sustainable Development Reports" to enhance the quality of sustainability disclosures among listed companies [6][24]. - The first IPO of the year was accepted, with Beijing Huadian Guangda Environment Co., Ltd. aiming to raise approximately 260 million by issuing up to 32.2 million shares [6][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors for investment in 2026: 1. Data Centers: KLT and Shuguang Data Creation 2. Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, JunChuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials 3. Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz 4. Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., Kangbiter, and Thunder God Technology 5. Military Information Technology: Chengdian Guangxin and Xingtuzhihui [6][25].

详解 2025 年理财年度报告： 规模稳步增长，增配现金类资产 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 146,116.35 行业流通市值(亿元) 139,898.72 报告摘要 相关报告 业绩增速有望稳中向好，资产质量持 续优化》2026-02-08 贷款 5.1-5.25 万亿元，社融增速为 8.3%》2026-02-07 门 红 奠 定 全 年 业 绩 稳 健 基 调 》 2026-01-31 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 09 日 风险提示事件：经济下滑超预期，经济恢复不及预期，数据更新不及时。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 理财产品存续规模为 33.29 万亿元，同比增长 11.2%，全年合计增量为 3.34 万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the potential for investment in bottom assets within the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in areas such as AI in medicine and innovative drug developments, while noting the recent market performance where the pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market [11][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key milestones and data updates from major conferences in 2026, such as AACR and ASCO, which could significantly impact investment decisions [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a return of 3.28% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [26]. - Recent weekly performance indicates a slight increase in the pharmaceutical sector by 0.14%, while the broader market declined by 1.33% [11][26]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key areas for investment, including: - IO plus strategies involving VEGF dual antibodies, which are gaining traction in clinical trials [12]. - ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) with a focus on large indications and new indications that could enhance overseas mapping [14]. - The development of new RAS inhibitors and their potential in treating various cancers, highlighting companies like 加科思 and 劲方生物 [15]. - The commercial potential of CDK4/6 inhibitors in HR+ breast cancer, particularly as patents expire [16]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - 药明生物, 泰格医药, 先声药业, 康弘药业, 普洛药业, 美好医疗, 迪安诊断, 和铂医药-B, 药石科技, and 天宇股份, all of which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8][19]. - It notes that the pharmaceutical sector's current valuation is 22.8 times PE based on 2026 earnings forecasts, indicating a premium over the broader A-share market [30]. Clinical Developments - The report discusses various clinical trials and their implications, such as: - The anticipated data readouts for several ADCs and dual antibodies in 2026, which could significantly influence market dynamics [17][20]. - The ongoing advancements in small nucleic acids and their expected commercialization, which could lead to substantial market growth [19][23]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights the regulatory landscape, noting that the National Medical Insurance Administration will intensify oversight in 2026, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [22]. Overall Sector Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that despite recent market fluctuations, there are significant opportunities for growth and investment, particularly in innovative therapies and technologies [11][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [5] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound in bottom assets, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine, medical services, and pharmacies, driven by market rotation and price increase expectations in raw materials [7][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom assets that are expected to see turning points and well-adjusted innovative drug sectors, with a positive outlook on growth directions representing the future of the pharmaceutical industry [11] - Key themes include continuous attention to pharmaceutical and medical AI+, as well as significant data updates expected from major conferences in 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a return of 3.28% compared to the Shanghai Composite's 0.29% since the beginning of 2026 [26] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently at 22.8 times PE, with a premium of 11.7% over the overall A-share market [30] Key Company Performance - Recommended stocks for February include WuXi Biologics, Tigermed, and others, with a focus on companies that have shown significant pipeline progress or business development expectations [8][36] - The report highlights the performance of companies like Guangsheng Tang and Nuo Cheng Jian Hua, which have made notable advancements in their core pipelines [36] Industry Trends - The report discusses the trend of combining IO plus therapies and the development of new targets in the dual antibody space, indicating a growing trend in clinical applications [12][14] - Attention is drawn to the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, particularly large indication FIC (First-in-Class) products and the potential for new indications to enhance overseas mapping [14][17] - The report also highlights the evolving landscape in blood cancers, with new therapies showing promise in previously underserved areas [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [35] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since the New Year's Day, the A-share market has been experiencing the overlapping resonance of three factors: further changes in liability behavior, multi-directional catalysis on the asset side, and the transfer of the bond market's "good start" seasonal market to the equity market [2][8][9] - The bull market's confidence stems from the concentrated maturity of time deposits and the activation of deposits. From "current deposits - wealth management products - dividend - insurance policies - public funds", the attractiveness and the degree of embracing equity assets increase significantly [2] - Dividend - insurance policies can serve as an alternative to high - interest time deposits after maturity. The current time deposit interest rate is lower than the "guaranteed return" part of dividend - insurance policies [2][18] - With the rapid expansion of wealth management scale, relying solely on bond funds is difficult to meet the performance requirements, forcing funds to seek elasticity in equity assets. The structure of wealth management products is moving towards equity - linked ones [2][22] - The seasonality of the bond market has not disappeared but has shifted to the stock market, forming the "good start" of the stock market [2][25] - Forget the "expectation gap", and the flywheel effect of "money - production capacity" is emerging. AI can boost the reinvestment expectations of traditional industries, and the reinflation of products will lead to changes in capital expenditure and production capacity expansion [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Understanding from the Liability - side Perspective - **Deposit Activation and Reinvestment**: Since 2022, time deposit interest rates have been lowered multiple times. The 1 - year deposit rate has dropped from 1.75% to 0.95%, and the 3 - year rate from 2.75% to 1.25%. The re - investment of time deposits shows a "trickle - down effect", with funds flowing to current deposits and equity - linked products. The attractiveness and the degree of embracing equity assets increase step - by - step from "current deposits - wealth management products - dividend - insurance policies - public funds" [11][14][17] - **Dividend - insurance Policies as an Alternative**: Dividend - insurance policies have a "guaranteed return + floating dividend" feature, with a guaranteed return capped at 1.75% and at least 70% of distributable surplus distributed to policyholders. They have higher investment returns, lower rigid costs for insurance companies, and relatively shorter effective durations. Their liability - side characteristics lead to a higher proportion of equity investment and shorter - term fixed - income investment [18][19] - **Equity - linked Fixed - income Products**: The rapid expansion of wealth management scale poses challenges to asset - side returns. Even with an optimistic assumption for the 2026 bond market, the upper limit of the return from bond funds is only 2.1%, so adding equity is needed to increase returns. Equity - linked fixed - income products are shifting from high - dividend to high - volatility and technology sectors [22] - **Impact on Stock - Bond Balance**: The seasonality of the bond market is caused by the maturity of various deposits and the behavior of banks to meet quotas. Due to the strong trend of deposit migration to wealth management and insurance, the funds that should have flowed into bonds have instead entered equity - linked wealth management products or dividend - insurance policies, leading to the transfer of the bond market's seasonality to the stock market [25] - **The Emergence of the Flywheel Effect**: The "expectation gap" thinking is suitable for a static environment of stock - fund games. Currently, at the moment of rapid switching of liability behavior, the institutions where liabilities flow first are more leading. The AI sector has a flywheel effect on traditional industries' reinvestment and employment, and the reinflation of products will drive capital expenditure and production capacity expansion in relevant industries [27][28][31]