执业证书编号：S0740519050002 农商行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨超伦 执业证书编号：S0740524090004 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 9,644.44 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 9,316.58 | | 市价(元) | 8.64 | | 市值(百万元) | 83,328.00 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 80,495.28 | 2024-11-03 沪农商行（601825.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 26 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 2025 Q1 revenue of 889 million yuan, representing an 18.65% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, up 26.84% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][5] - The company is accelerating its solid-state battery business, having established a research institute in collaboration with Dongchi and is actively pursuing production capacity and overseas market expansion [7][8] - The company has signed a strategic agreement with Tianlian Robotics to develop specialized bearings for robots, enhancing its position in the robotics industry [9] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,180 million yuan in 2023 to 7,379 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% [4] - Net profit is expected to increase from 284 million yuan in 2023 to 582 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 28% in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.55 yuan in 2023 to 3.18 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability [4] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a limited dependency on the U.S. market, with only 17.3% of its revenue coming from the U.S., and has established a supply chain center in Malaysia to enhance its competitiveness [6] - The company’s solid-state battery technology is positioned as a leader in the industry due to its low cost, high safety, and long cycle life [7] - The strategic partnership with Tianlian Robotics is expected to strengthen the company's technical capabilities and open new markets in the robotics sector [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank [2][3] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's performance remains robust with a revenue growth of 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and a net profit growth of 8.2% year-on-year [3][11] - The bank's net interest income increased significantly by 21.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by a resilient net interest margin [12][14] - Asset quality indicators such as non-performing loan ratio and overdue rates have shown improvement, indicating a positive trend in credit quality [19] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jiangsu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 6.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while net profit rose by 8.2% [11][7] - The bank's net interest margin improved to 1.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13 basis points [12][9] - The bank's total loans grew by 13% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 25.9% and retail loans by 10% [14][15] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 23.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [18] - However, fee income increased by 21.8% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in non-interest income [18] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.86%, down 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 5 basis points year-on-year [19] - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains high at 343.51%, despite a slight decrease [19] - The overdue rate decreased to 1.10%, indicating better asset quality management [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][14] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 1.211 billion yuan, down 7.07% year-on-year and 17.74% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million yuan, down 33.00% year-on-year and 50.10% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - Despite the anticipated decline in performance due to external market factors in 2024, the company is expected to benefit from new project implementations, leading to an increase in sales volume and profitability in the coming years [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company achieved a revenue of 6,661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%. However, a significant decline of 14% is expected in 2024A [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 783 million yuan, with a notable increase of 66% year-on-year, but a decrease of 19% is projected for 2024A [2] - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.33%, reflecting a decline of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year and 2.12 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] Company Strengths - The company possesses significant scale advantages with a production capacity of 1 million tons of specialized pipes, enhancing its competitive edge in niche markets such as oil pipes and high-pressure boiler tubes [5] - Ongoing projects for high-end special pipes are progressing well, with several production lines entering trial production phases, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [5][6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 636 million yuan in 2025E, 669 million yuan in 2026E, and 731 million yuan in 2027E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7, 7, and 6 respectively [6][12] - The anticipated revenue growth rates for the next few years are expected to stabilize, with a forecasted growth of 1% in 2025E and 7% in 2026E and 2027E [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 1.43% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.38% and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.20% [6][24] - The report highlights the correlation of REITs with various indices, showing a correlation of -0.08 with 10-year government bonds and 0.27 with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [6] - Recent market activities include the listing of the Southern SF Logistics REIT, which saw a first-day increase of 13.53% [8][12] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - 62 REITs, including the Jia Shi JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, released their first-quarter announcements this week [12] - 12 REITs, such as the E Fund Deep Expressway REIT, announced dividend distributions [12] - The report notes various REITs' operational data releases and investor activities, including the Guangfa Chengdu High Investment Industrial Park REIT [8][12] Market Performance - The trading volume for REITs increased to 2.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% rise, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.7% [9] - Specific sectors showed varied performance, with highway REITs trading at 710 million yuan (+1.5%) and ecological environmental REITs at 12 million yuan (-21.8%) [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall economic stability remains unchanged, and REITs possess strong allocation attributes in the long term [9] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to sector rotation and expansion opportunities, as well as improvements in macroeconomic and policy environments [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expectation of a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 450 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60 million yuan, up 57.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The growth is driven by the release of production capacity and strong customer demand for suspension system components, including suspension springs and stabilizers [4] - The company has established strong partnerships with well-known domestic automotive brands and suppliers, including BYD and Geely, which supports stable performance [4] - The company is advancing its global strategy, with significant investments planned for production bases in Germany, Mexico, and Morocco, aiming to enhance market share and meet regional demand [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 1,860 million yuan in 2024 to 3,368 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 50%, 24%, 22%, and 20% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 226 million yuan in 2024 to 438 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 38%, 25%, 26%, and 23% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.24 yuan in 2024 to 2.40 yuan in 2027 [2] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected net profit margin of approximately 12.6% in 2024, improving to 13.5% by 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [4][6]. - The decline in net profit relative to revenue growth is attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin to 14.61% from 15.89% and a significant increase in asset impairment losses [6]. - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales area of 9.36 million square meters and a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, ranking first in several key cities [6]. - The company has maintained a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of 100.35 billion yuan at the end of 2024, and its debt ratios are within safe limits [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue 175.01 billion yuan, Net Profit 6.32 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 178.95 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.04 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 166.78 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.34 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 159.94 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.79 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 163.30 billion yuan, Net Profit 5.41 billion yuan [3][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2024A: 0.45 yuan - 2025E: 0.48 yuan - 2026E: 0.53 yuan - 2027E: 0.60 yuan [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total land price of approximately 48.6 billion yuan, focusing 90% of its investment in core cities [6]. - The company’s investment in first-tier cities accounted for 59% of total investments, indicating a strategic focus on urban development [6]. - The company is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months, reflecting confidence in its market position [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve record high revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a new product cycle, affordable intelligent driving features, and continuous expansion in exports [3][7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.6% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is entering a new product cycle with multiple new models set to launch, which is anticipated to boost sales momentum starting from March 2025 [8][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 173.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26% year-on-year; for 2024A, it is projected at 202.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is 7.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 15%; for 2024A, it is expected to rise to 12.69 billion yuan, an increase of 81% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 0.82 yuan, projected to increase to 1.48 yuan in 2024A [4] Sales and Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company sold 257,000 vehicles, including 91,000 units sold overseas and 63,000 units of new energy vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [6][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, alongside maintaining stable sales in Russia [8][6] Product and Innovation Strategy - The company plans to launch several new models across its five major brands, including Haval, Wey, Tank, Ora, and pickup trucks, with significant models expected in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [8][6] - The introduction of affordable intelligent driving features in models priced below 200,000 yuan is expected to enhance competitiveness [8][6] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.4%, down 3.2 percentage points [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 14.5X, 12.6X, and 11.3X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - The banking sector's revenue is supported by traditional interest margin business, with provisions bolstering performance [4] - Active funds slightly reduced their holdings in the banking sector, while northbound funds increased their positions [6] - The overall market trend shows a divergence where active funds are pulling back, but certain cyclical stocks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank are seeing increased investment [6] Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, active funds reduced their holdings in the banking sector to 4%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][9] - The low allocation difference for active funds in the banking sector is 8.33%, which has widened by 14 basis points compared to Q4 2024 [12] Passive Fund Holdings - The performance of technology stocks has siphoned off investments from major indices, leading to a decrease in passive funds' holdings in banking stocks [6] - By the end of Q1 2025, passive funds held a total market value of 182.4 billion yuan in banking stocks, down 1.84% from the end of 2024 [6] Northbound Fund Holdings - Northbound funds increased their holdings in the banking sector, with a net inflow of 4.6% compared to the end of Q4 2024 [6] - The total market value held by northbound funds in banking stocks reached 227.57 billion yuan, representing 2.43% of the total circulating market value of listed banks [6] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the dividend attributes of banking stocks, suggesting a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [6] - Two main investment lines are identified: high-dividend large banks (e.g., Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank) and city commercial banks with strong regional advantages [6]