Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term and long-term moving averages of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends and timing signals [2][7][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ Distance = \frac{Short\text{-}term\ MA - Long\text{-}term\ MA}{Long\text{-}term\ MA} $ 3. If the absolute value of the distance is greater than 3%, it indicates a significant trend signal [2][7][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and provides actionable timing signals [2][7][13] 2. Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry allocation opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends [6][8][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Monitor medium-term reversal signals for specific industries, such as the real estate chain 2. Use performance trend analysis to identify industries with strong growth potential, such as technology, semiconductors, and chemicals 3. Recommend ETF products corresponding to these industries for allocation [6][8][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear industry allocation guidance and captures sectoral opportunities effectively [6][8][15] 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation ratio based on valuation levels and market trends [9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess the PE and PB valuation levels of the WIND All A Index 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term market trends to determine the recommended equity allocation ratio 3. For example, with the current PE at the 90th percentile and PB at the 50th percentile, the model suggests an 80% equity allocation [9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and trend considerations [9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: 6.28% (absolute value > 3%) - Market trend line: 6812 points - Profitability effect: 1.91% (significantly > 0) [2][7][13] 2. Industry Trend Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: - Real estate chain (e.g., Building Materials ETF: 159745.SZ) - Technology (e.g., Satellite ETF: 563230.SH) - Semiconductors and communication (e.g., Semiconductor Equipment ETF: 159516.SZ, Communication ETF: 515880.SH) - Metals and chemicals (e.g., Industrial Metals ETF: 560860.SH, Rare Earth ETF: 516150.SH, Chemical ETF: 159870.SZ) [6][8][15] 3. Position Management Model - Recommended equity allocation: 80% [9] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the market's profitability to assess upward momentum [2][7][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the profitability effect as a percentage of profitable stocks in the market 2. A positive profitability effect indicates upward momentum [2][7][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and momentum [2][7][13] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profitability Effect - Current value: 1.91% (significantly > 0) [2][7][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months[12] Core Viewpoints - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, and the military conflict officially broke out. The market's reaction to this event is the focus of the report[5] - The geopolitical event has a pulse - like impact, benefiting gold, oil, energy - chemical, shipping, non - ferrous metals, and the bond market. The equity market's risk appetite may decline, but it's unwise to bet on war risks. In the long - term, it's too early to determine the direction, and four variables need to be monitored[3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Event Background - The US has been increasing troops in Iran since the beginning of the year, reaching the largest scale in nearly 23 years by the end of February. On February 27, Chinese and US embassies issued evacuation reminders, indicating a possible escalation of the conflict. The war unexpectedly broke out on February 28, right after Iran showed a willingness to compromise in the US - Iran negotiations[1][2] - The US's explicit demands are to terminate the nuclear program indefinitely, stop supporting regional agents, and halt the development of long - range ballistic missiles. Israel publicly stated its intention to "decapitate" Iran's supreme leader, possibly aiming to promote a "revolution"[2] Market Impact Short - term Impact - After the war broke out, short - term pulse - like trading of geopolitical premiums directly benefits crude oil, gold, and energy - chemical products such as methanol, LNG, fuel oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz will also drive up container shipping on European routes. Non - ferrous metals, affected by the bull market, geopolitical premiums, and overseas supply and shipping risks, are also likely to rise, especially tin and lithium carbonate. In the bond market, the 10 - year interest rate dropped significantly on the day when only the inter - bank market was open, reversing the upward trend after the Shanghai real - estate policy adjustment[3] Equity Market - The risk appetite in the equity market may decline, but betting on war risks is unwise. A - shares have shown an independent trend since the US stock market started to fluctuate sideways in late October last year. The "Halo trading" and geopolitical targets are in the same direction, strengthening sectors such as non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and shipping. The technology sector is not the short - term trading focus, and the large - scale use of Claude by the US military has made AI applications more popular. Even if it experiences marginal adjustments due to the decline in risk appetite and the structural seesaw effect, it presents an opportunity to enter the market[4] Long - term Considerations - It's too early to determine the long - term direction. Four variables will affect the duration of the war: Trump needs to balance domestic and foreign affairs during the mid - term election year and in the face of domestic inflation; Trump's possible visit to China in March - April may determine the short - term global security environment; the US's involvement in the Iran war is not conducive to its long - term competition with China; and Iran's ability to withstand pressure and the possibility of seeking peace. In the complex geopolitical information game, domestic market participants do not have an information advantage, and price signals are more reliable than complex news[5][6][7]

全球 HALO 交易： "两会"窗口如何攻守兼备？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 本周科技与资源的双线行情，本质上是同一套市场逻辑的"一体两面"——前者对应 "AI 带动算力与电力需求扩张、国产替代加速"的产业景气逻辑，后者对应"PPI 回 升、反内卷政策落地、全球资源再定价"的周期修复逻辑。 2、《担保比例提至高位，资金调仓 3、《春节后科技主线行情或将如何 1）资源品方面，美伊局势升温推动国际油价假期累涨逾 5%，叠加国内 PPI 环比持续 回升与供给侧"反内卷"政策效果显现，两者共振全球资金向重资产方向切换，钢铁、 有色、稀土、基础化工等板块形成共振。2）科技方面，算力硬件与存储是本周真正 主线：SK 海力士披露 DRAM 与 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，全年涨价预期进一步强化， 国产存储替代逻辑同步升温；AI 应用与大模型概念则因缺乏业绩兑现支撑而明显回 撤，科技板块内部呈现"硬件强、应用弱"的结构性分化。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the "Davis Double-Click Strategy," which involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, and selling them once their growth is realized, achieving a multiplier effect on returns [3][6] - The "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, specifically targeting stocks that show significant upward price gaps on the first trading day after earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings reports [9][10] - The "Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio" is constructed based on investor preference factors, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential, achieving stable excess returns historically [12][17] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Davis Double-Click Strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, with excess returns exceeding 11% in each of the seven complete years [8][10] - The Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy has recorded an annualized return of 30.24% since inception, with a cumulative absolute return of 13.07% this year, although it underperformed the benchmark index by 2.91% [10][11] - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio has shown a relative excess return of 8.65% against the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 1.71% [12][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 850 to 1,050 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.11% to 60.72% [6] - The growth is primarily driven by the optimization of the product customer structure in the automotive lightweight metal parts business and strong orders in the general aviation aircraft manufacturing sector [6][9] - The acquisition of core assets from Volocopter GmbH is expected to enhance the company's eVTOL product matrix and support long-term performance growth [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 16,207 million yuan - 2024A: 16,264 million yuan - 2025E: 16,451 million yuan - 2026E: 18,662 million yuan - 2027E: 21,186 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be -1% in 2023, 0% in 2024, 1% in 2025, 13% in 2026, and 14% in 2027 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: 727 million yuan - 2024A: 653 million yuan - 2025E: 898 million yuan - 2026E: 1,059 million yuan - 2027E: 1,241 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be -10% in 2023, -10% in 2024, 37% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 17% in 2027 [4] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on a dual-engine strategy of "automotive business + aircraft manufacturing business" to drive growth [9] - In the automotive sector, the company is enhancing customer and product structures while advancing digital and intelligent production line transformations [9] - In the aircraft manufacturing sector, the company is expanding its application scenarios and integrating resources for new aircraft models and delivery centers [9]

四单 REITs 申报，商业不动产 REITs 获审核反馈 评级：无评级 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 相关报告 报告摘要 本周行情回顾： 1、《公募 REITs2026 年度策略报告： 资产为王，重视节奏》2025-12-11 2、《2025 年 REITs 三季报综述：运 营 仍 在 分 化 ， 博 弈 预 期 改 善 》 2025-12-07 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 79 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 2273.77 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 1252.24 | 3、《证监会商业不动产 REITs 试点 公告解读：公募 REITs 迈向"基础设 施+商业不动产"双轮驱动新阶段》 2025-11-29 REITs 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 本周 REITs 指数下跌 1.08%，沪深 300 累计上涨 1.08%，中证红利指数上涨 2.80%，中 证全债指数下跌 0.07%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.06%，中债 10 年期国债指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to perform well despite the off-peak season, driven by strong travel demand and favorable oil prices. The report highlights a potential for increased passenger volume and ticket prices, indicating a positive outlook for airline investments [4][5] - The logistics and express delivery sectors are also showing signs of recovery, with companies like YTO Express and SF Express leading in business volume growth. The report emphasizes the importance of quality improvement in the express delivery industry, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing profitability [5][6] - The shipping industry is experiencing upward pressure on oil shipping prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, suggesting a favorable investment environment for oil shipping companies [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - The report notes that during the Spring Festival travel period, passenger volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with an average seat occupancy rate of 86.9% [4] - Airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential, with recommendations for investment based on their operational efficiency and market positioning [12] Logistics - The express delivery sector saw significant growth in January, with YTO Express reporting a year-on-year increase of 29.75% in business volume [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is poised for quality improvements, driven by "anti-involution" policies and advancements in automation [5] Shipping - The report indicates that the BDTI index for oil shipping has risen by 11.42% month-on-month and 126.25% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand and supply constraints [6] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the hot pot industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The hot pot industry is experiencing a shift towards value growth, with regional flavors and small hot pot formats driving new growth [1]. - The industry is projected to grow from approximately 619.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 659.9 billion yuan in 2025, and is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2029 [7][8]. - Consumer behavior is becoming more rational, with a focus on "value for money," leading to a shift in average spending towards mid-range price points [13][14]. - The rise of the "lonely economy" is contributing to the growth of small hot pot formats, with the market expected to reach 40 billion yuan by 2025 [15][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The hot pot industry is the leading category in restaurant innovation and growth, with a steady expansion in scale [7]. - The number of hot pot outlets is expected to peak at 545,000 in 2024 before declining to 470,000 in 2025 due to increased competition [8]. Consumer Trends - The average spending on hot pot is shifting towards lower price ranges, with the mainstream price range (61-100 yuan) expected to account for 51% of consumption by 2025 [13]. - The demand for diverse ingredients and flavors is driving changes in supply, with new types of hot pot bases and regional ingredients becoming popular [14]. Market Dynamics - The emergence of new hot pot categories, such as Yunnan wild mountain hot pot and seafood market hot pot, is diversifying the market [11]. - The small hot pot segment is gaining traction, with a projected market size of 40 billion yuan and an estimated 48,000 outlets by 2025 [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities that can offer diverse bases and pre-prepared products, specifically highlighting Yihai International and Anjuke Foods as key players [7][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal sector [2][5]. Core Views - The coal sector is expected to perform well due to supply constraints and favorable market narratives, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in coal stocks [1][6]. - Multiple factors are driving coal prices upward, including tightening global supply, geopolitical risks, and domestic demand dynamics [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 2,099.95 billion CNY [2]. - The circulating market value of the industry is around 2,056.85 billion CNY [2]. 2. Price Tracking - Domestic coal prices have shown an upward trend, with significant increases in both imported and domestic coal prices noted [7][8]. - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 852.3 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain limited in the short term due to strict safety regulations and the upcoming important meetings in March [7]. - Indonesian coal exports are anticipated to contract due to regulatory uncertainties and the onset of Ramadan, which may further tighten supply [8]. 4. Inventory Levels - As of February 27, 2026, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.96 million tons, down 18.16% year-on-year [8]. - The inventory levels are relatively low, which may support higher coal prices in the near future [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key stocks to watch, including China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Huainan Mining, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [8][9]. - The investment strategy focuses on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity and profitability potential [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [2] Core Insights - The demand for international air travel is driven by both leisure and business travel, with a significant correlation to international trade and investment activities. The report highlights a notable increase in outbound investment from China, which is expected to boost international flight offerings [4][5] - The report anticipates that international routes from China will see growth primarily in Europe and Asia, with a gradual recovery in North America, leading to sustained industry optimism [4][5] - The report emphasizes the advantages of major Chinese airlines, particularly China Eastern Airlines, due to their rapid recovery in international routes and increased flight offerings [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the aviation industry is approximately 716.41 billion yuan, with 12 listed companies [2] - The report notes a significant recovery in international air travel, with domestic airlines leading the recovery compared to foreign airlines [5][6] Investment Activities - China's outbound direct investment is projected to reach 1,245.58 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4][19] - The report indicates that the number of Chinese companies engaging in overseas investments has increased significantly, with a notable rise in revenue from these activities [4][35] Passenger Flow and Travel Policies - The report highlights the positive impact of visa-free policies on inbound tourism, with a 26% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors to China in 2025 [5][55] - The number of outbound trips by Chinese residents is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [5][58] Future Trends - The report predicts that Asian routes will dominate international air travel, with significant growth expected in flights to Japan, South Korea, and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6] - European routes are also expected to see an increase in flight volumes, driven by enhanced trade relations and investment activities [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines, particularly China Eastern Airlines, due to their strong recovery and expansion in international routes [5][6]