Group 1: Credit Momentum Analysis - Credit growth is expected to continue a slight downward trend, supported by new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance [5][10] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, with structural adjustments continuing, as new infrastructure takes on momentum [5][10] - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, with a market space of 10 trillion yuan over five years for traditional industry upgrades [5][10] - Technology finance loans are likely to sustain high growth, with high-tech enterprise loans currently only accounting for about 10% of total loans, indicating room for improvement [5][10] Group 2: Bank Revenue and Profitability - Interest income is expected to recover, leading to a projected 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [5][10] - The net interest margin is projected to decline by 2.5 basis points in 2026, but the decline is expected to be significantly smaller than in 2025 [5][10] - Non-interest income is expected to see growth, particularly from wealth management fees, as deposit migration continues [5][10] Group 3: Funding Analysis - The estimated total investment from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management into the banking sector is projected to be 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [5][10] - Insurance funds are expected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, leading to a 4.1% upward potential [5][10] - Mutual funds are projected to bring in an additional 254 billion yuan from active funds and 706 billion yuan from passive funds [5][10] Group 4: Asset Quality - Overall asset quality remains stable, with corporate loans being continuously optimized while retail risks are gradually revealing [5][10] - The non-performing loan ratio for retail loans is 1.27%, showing a slight increase compared to the beginning of the year, but the growth rate remains stable [5][10] - The current high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for mortgages is estimated to be between 1.9% and 4.1%, indicating manageable risk levels [5][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks as dual investment lines [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to maintain strong certainty, with a stable return on equity (ROE) projected at 8% by 2028 [5][10] - Recommended banks include Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank for their high ROE and resilience [5][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [2][21] Core Insights - The external environment and major power competition remain important starting points for policy, with increased confidence in addressing internal and external issues [4][11] - Fiscal policy will maintain a stable and more proactive stance, with a focus on domestic demand and innovation [4][12] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, emphasizing flexible decision-making and policy efficiency [4][12] - The regulatory approach for small and medium financial institutions has shifted from "risk resolution" to "quality improvement" [4][18] Summary by Sections Overall Thoughts - The report emphasizes that the external environment and major power competition are crucial for economic policy, with a more confident outlook on both internal and external challenges [4][11] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, focusing on maintaining stability. The emphasis will be on domestic demand and innovation, with a potential tightening of tax incentives and subsidies [4][12][18] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with a focus on flexible and efficient decision-making. The use of various policy tools, including adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates, will be prioritized [4][12][18] Financial Regulation - The regulatory focus for small and medium financial institutions has transitioned to enhancing quality rather than merely resolving risks, indicating a shift towards reform and consolidation in the sector [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies for bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with a focus on high-dividend stability during economic downturns. Recommendations include regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [4][20]

Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies in the agricultural sector amidst a challenging market environment, highlighting potential investment opportunities in key areas such as food security and livestock production [2][8]. Group 1: Swine Farming - The report indicates that the reduction in breeding sow inventory has begun, with a notable decline to 39.9 million heads as of October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decrease and a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [20]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.33 yuan/kg in November 2025, down 25.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating significant price pressure in the market [27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as they are expected to have stronger resilience and market share growth in a low-margin environment [11][20]. Group 2: Natural Rubber - The report discusses the slow contraction of supply in the natural rubber market, with production challenges due to climate change and labor cost increases, which are expected to impact future supply dynamics [49][55]. - It highlights that the current natural rubber prices are in a new bottoming phase, influenced by both supply constraints and weak demand from the tire and automotive sectors [59]. - The report recommends Hainan Rubber as a key player, noting its strategic land resource management and potential for growth in a recovering market [60][66]. Group 3: Sugar and Tomato Industries - The sugar industry is projected to see a production increase to 11.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 4.8% rise year-on-year, driven by improved pricing for sugarcane [77]. - The report notes that the import of non-standard sugar sources has decreased significantly, which has positively impacted profit margins for domestic sugar producers [77]. - The tomato industry is undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability in the face of market challenges [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the economy showed a pattern of export improvement, investment stabilization, and consumption decline, reflecting the continued differentiation between the real - estate chain and non - real - estate chain. The market has gradually adapted to "de - real - estate" this year, and the continuous resilience of CPI and the improvement of corporate credit confirm the improvement of the economy's internal driving force. The long - term pessimistic expectations of the market for growth have been revised, and the technology chain dominates the market risk preference. Interest rates are becoming less sensitive to the real estate and economic fundamentals. In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown "bearish characteristics", and in the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In November, industrial production slowed down marginally, with the production of downstream consumer goods manufacturing improving. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value continued to decline by 0.1 pct to 4.8%. In terms of structure, the production of the mining industry accelerated, while the growth of the manufacturing and water, electricity, and gas supply industries slowed down. The year - on - year growth rates of the three major sectors were 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively, with the growth rates changing by +1.8 pct, - 0.3 pct, and - 1.1 pct compared with the previous month [2]. - Compared with the previous month, the production of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry improved, and the production of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry slowed down overall. The year - on - year industrial added values of industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic equipment, textiles, and food all improved compared with the previous month. The growth rates of industrial added values of mid - stream industries such as automobiles and transportation equipment declined from high levels, with the year - on - year growth rates in November both at 11.9%, down 4.9 pct and 3.3 pct respectively from the previous month. In terms of absolute growth rates, the growth rates of chemical raw materials and products (6.7%), transportation equipment (11.9%), automobiles (11.9%), electronic equipment (9.2%), and general equipment (7.5%) were significantly higher than the overall level [1] - The service industry production index declined slightly. In November, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of structure, the prosperity of producer services such as information technology, leasing, and finance was higher than the overall service industry and maintained strong resilience [1] Investment - Driven by the improvement of manufacturing investment, the decline of the fixed - asset investment growth rate narrowed. In November, the year - on - year decline of the fixed - asset investment completion amount was 11.98%, and the decline narrowed by 0.24 pct compared with the previous month. Among the three major sub - items, the manufacturing investment growth rate was the most resilient. In November, the growth rates of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment recovered. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment were - 4.5%, - 11.9%, and - 30.3% respectively, with changes of +2.2 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 7.3 pct compared with the previous month. Among manufacturing sub - industries, the investment growth rates of chemical raw material product processing, non - ferrous metal smelting, and general equipment recovered significantly compared with the previous month [3] - The year - on - year decline of the real - estate sales area narrowed, and the sales price declined at an accelerated pace. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales volume and sales area were - 25.1% and - 17.3% respectively, with changes of - 0.8 pct and +1.5 pct compared with the previous month. The unit price calculated from the sales volume and sales area decreased by - 9.5% year - on - year, further dropping 2.6 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of investment, the year - on - year decline of the real - estate new construction and completion areas stabilized and narrowed. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of the real - estate new construction area and completion area were - 27.6% and - 25.5% respectively, and the year - on - year declines narrowed by 1.9 pct and 2.7 pct respectively compared with the previous month, and the overall situation was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3] Consumption - Consumption declined more than expected, and the resilience of catering consumption was still stronger than that of commodities. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 pct compared with the previous month, and also lower than the market consensus expectation of 2.93% in the WIND statistics. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and commodity retail were 3.2% and 1% respectively, with changes of - 0.6 pct and - 1.8 pct compared with the previous month [3] - In commodity retail, in addition to the drag of post - real - estate cycle commodities, the sales growth of gold and silver jewelry slowed down in November. The year - on - year growth rate of gold and silver jewelry in November was 8.5% (down 29.1 pct compared with the previous month), but the monthly sales of gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Coupled with the recent strong performance of gold prices, subsequent sales may still rebound. The year - on - year growth rates of post - real - estate cycle related commodities (household appliances, automobiles, furniture, and decoration materials) continued to decline. In November, the year - on - year sales of household appliances, decoration materials, automobiles, and furniture decreased by 19.4%, 17%, 8.3%, and 3.8% respectively. Affected by influenza and other factors, the growth rate of drug sales accelerated in November, with the growth rate increasing by 1.3 pct compared with the previous month to 4.9% [3] Export and Bond Market - In November, exports returned to high prosperity, investment decline narrowed, and consumption declined. The year - on - year growth rates of exports, investment, and social retail sales were 5.9%, - 12%, and 1.3% respectively, with changes of +7 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 1.6 pct compared with the previous month. The data did not change the weak sentiment in the bond market. After the 10Y interest rate declined slightly by 0.4 bp, it returned to the upward channel, and the market did not significantly price the data [2] - In the past two weeks, the bond market has experienced over - decline, recovery, and then weakening again, showing obvious "bearish characteristics". The pressure on the liability side has not been relieved, and there is still a lack of long - buying power in institutional behavior. In the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4]

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 中央经济工作会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年12月15日 2 【市场观察】中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ ➢ 一、中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 3 ➢ 上周两大会议落地。12月8日（周一）政治局会议通稿发布后，市场反应较为平淡，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数当日收涨仅0.08%，次日A股上证指数收跌0.37%。12月11日（周四）中央经济工作 会议通稿发布后市场波动增大，纳斯达克金龙指数当日高开0.7%，盘中一度涨幅超过1%，随后 回落收跌0.3%，次日上证指数上涨0.41%，万得全A涨幅达0.77%，科技板块提振尤为明显。 ➢ 本次两大会议对经济整体形势判断定调偏乐观，同时预示2026年经济总量政策将维持定力。财政 政策强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，这 意味着在"反内卷"的要求下，整体 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.29% this week, with operational rights categories dropping by 0.33% and property rights categories increasing by 1.07% [5][18] - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry is approximately 222.47 billion, with a circulating market value of about 112.39 billion [2] - Recent market activity includes the registration and inquiry announcement for the Huaxia Nuclear Clean Energy REIT, with an inquiry range set between 3.356 yuan and 5.033 yuan per share [7][12] Market Performance - The trading volume for the week reached 1.96 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.2% increase, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.3% [44] - The performance of various asset types showed significant variations, with clean energy REITs seeing a 23.5% increase in trading volume [44] - The correlation of REITs with the ten-year treasury bond is 0.19, while the correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.39, indicating a moderate relationship with equity markets [20] Key Events - The Huaxia Nuclear Clean Energy REIT project has been registered and is set for offline inquiry on December 17, 2025 [12] - The report highlights the approval status of several REIT projects, including the submission of the Boshi Shandong Iron Investment Road and Bridge REIT [12][7] - Six REITs, including the Huaxia Fund's Huayuan REIT, announced dividend distributions this week [12][44] Trading and Valuation - The overall REITs market saw 17 REITs increase in value, while 58 declined, resulting in an overall drop of 0.85% [22] - The valuation yield for various REITs ranged from -0.54% to 9.80%, with the highest yield observed in Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.80% [45] - The P/NAV ratio for the REITs is between 0.72 and 1.84, indicating varying levels of market valuation relative to net asset value [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the optimization of the "two new" policies, with an expected increase in subsidy amounts for 2026, from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025. The support scope is expanding from physical consumption to service consumption, indicating a significant policy shift [6][7]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, branded apparel, and manufacturing upgrades. It emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in the paper and textile manufacturing sectors due to manufacturing efficiency, innovation capabilities, and environmental standards [6][7]. - The report identifies specific companies with growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has a replicable IP incubation capability, and Morning Glory, which is undergoing a transformation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.04%, ranking 16th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index fell by 2.57%, ranking 26th [6][11]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging printing up by 1.45% and home goods down by 1.75% [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies like Sun Paper, Baiya Co., and Huali Group, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][6]. - Specific attention is drawn to the outdoor retail expansion of Li Ning, which is seen as a positive operational change [6][7]. Raw Material and Pricing Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting increases in MDI and TDI, while soft foam polyether prices have decreased. The prices of various paper products are also monitored, with packaging paper continuing to rise [19][44]. - The report highlights the rebound in broadleaf pulp prices and the overall positive trend in the paper sector, suggesting potential profitability improvements for companies like Sun Paper [7][44]. Export and Domestic Market Dynamics - The report discusses the recovery of exports, particularly in the furniture sector, with a noted increase in non-wood furniture exports from Vietnam to the U.S. [6][7]. - It also highlights the challenges in the domestic real estate market, with significant declines in property sales and construction activity [69][89].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue and profit, with a 60.64% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 46.60% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][6] - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with a net debt ratio of 7.03% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.14 times, indicating low short-term repayment pressure [6] - The company is focused on land acquisition in Zhejiang, particularly in Hangzhou, where it holds a leading position [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 70,443 million yuan, with a projected decline to 69,152 million yuan in 2024A, followed by a slight recovery to 69,912 million yuan in 2025E [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2,529 million yuan in 2023A to 2,879 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 12.4%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Market Position - The company's total sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 786.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.87% year-on-year, ranking it 10th nationally [6] - The company has increased its land acquisition efforts, with new land value reaching 580.1 billion yuan, a 31.16% increase year-on-year [6] Financial Health - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 57.8%, with "three red lines" indicators consistently in the green zone [6] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [6] Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2,879 million yuan, 3,142 million yuan, and 3,425 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.93, 1.01, and 1.10 yuan [3][6]