中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 11月策略月报 —如果特朗普当选？ 2024 . 1 1 . 1 徐驰 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740519080003 邮 箱：xuchi@zts.com.cn 王永健 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740522050001 邮 箱：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 核心观点 3次"Trump交易"期间，大类资产价格的脉冲有所不同。（1）1.0脉冲最强，美债利率、美元、美股和工业品走强，发达股市跑 赢新兴；（2）2.0脉冲最弱，美债和黄金阶段走强，股市分化不明显。（3）3.0与1.0类似，区别是工业品下跌。 资产对"Trump交易"的敏感度排序是美元/美债>全球股市≈黄金>工业品。（1）美债和美元最敏感，本轮已计价较为充分；（2） 股市的表现形式是发达跑赢新兴，本轮也提前反应；（3）黄金充分体现避险属性，短期可能透支预期；（4）工业品规律不明显。 A股进入行情的第二阶段，如果特朗普当选，短期有望上行。（1）如果特朗普当选，国内预计会进一步宽货币。（2）汇率压力通 过缩窄内外经济差的方式缓解，由进一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The cement prices are expected to stabilize and improve, leading to accelerated profit recovery in Q4. The company is positioned as a market leader, which may mitigate the impact of overall market declines [1][2]. - The company has shown resilience in profitability despite a challenging market environment, with a focus on optimizing supply-side factors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 20.8%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower costs of coal and other materials [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 8.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points [1]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 10.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 650 million [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 131.82 billion, 136.67 billion, and 139.14 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.67 billion, 9.88 billion, and 10.68 billion [2][8]. - The expected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 1.64, 1.86, and 2.02 respectively [2][8]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is recognized as a leading player in the cement industry, benefiting from strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of around 50% in recent years [1][2]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 16.4, 14.4, and 13.3, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 0.8 for 2024 and 0.7 for 2025 and 2026 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the aluminum industry, highlighting supply rigidity and resource revaluation as key factors driving investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The demand for aluminum is expected to reach a significant turning point, driven by a combination of economic policies and market dynamics [2]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve has officially entered a rate-cutting cycle, which is anticipated to further stimulate economic activity and demand for aluminum [3]. - Domestic counter-cyclical policies in China are expected to continue to support economic growth, particularly in the real estate and capital markets [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The U.S. unemployment rate has risen from 3.4% to over 4% in 2023, indicating increasing economic pressure [3]. - U.S. inflation has decreased significantly, with the CPI dropping from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% currently, suggesting a stabilizing economic environment [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new monetary easing phase, with expectations of further cuts in the coming year [3]. Aluminum Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production has reached a historical high of 33.66 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [10]. - The production of alumina has only increased by 2% year-on-year, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and tightening spot market conditions [10]. - The report highlights a significant shortage of bauxite supply, particularly due to production halts in key regions like Henan and Shanxi, which has exacerbated the alumina supply issues [12][13]. Future Projections - By 2025, global bauxite production is expected to increase significantly, particularly from Guinea, although actual supply may be constrained by logistical challenges [15]. - The report anticipates that the new alumina projects will lead to an oversupply situation, potentially driving down profits and forcing high-cost production out of the market [19]. - The aluminum industry is expected to see a shift in demand dynamics, with the renewable energy sector's demand for aluminum projected to surpass that of the construction sector in the near future [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance has been negatively impacted by a decline in coal prices due to production and sales disruptions. However, the acquisition of exploration rights has enhanced the company's resource base, which is expected to support sustainable development [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 65,183 million - 2023A: 55,523 million (down 15% YoY) - 2024E: 45,249 million (down 19% YoY) - 2025E: 49,530 million (up 9% YoY) - 2026E: 51,849 million (up 5% YoY) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 10,722 million - 2023A: 6,771 million (down 37% YoY) - 2024E: 3,553 million (down 48% YoY) - 2025E: 4,649 million (up 31% YoY) - 2026E: 5,095 million (up 10% YoY) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.89 - 2023A: 1.19 - 2024E: 0.63 - 2025E: 0.82 - 2026E: 0.90 [1][2] Operational Insights - The company faced production disruptions due to safety incidents at its coal mines, which affected its output. The report notes that the company is expected to recover production levels gradually [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company successfully acquired exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources, which is anticipated to bolster its competitive advantage and resource reserves [1][2]. Market Comparison - The report mentions that the company's stock price as of October 30, 2024, was 8.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 47,006.40 million [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 4.4 - 2023A: 6.9 - 2024E: 13.2 - 2025E: 10.1 - 2026E: 9.2 [1][2] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 1.4 - 2023A: 1.2 - 2024E: 1.3 - 2025E: 1.3 - 2026E: 1.3 [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The transportation sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.7%, outperforming the broader market, with notable gains in the aviation index (7.9%), bus index (4.3%), and shipping index (3.2) [2] - The report highlights the upcoming increase in flights to Canada and the ongoing expansion of visa-free policies, which are expected to boost international flight recovery [2][3] - The overall trend in the industry is positive, with improved flight operation efficiency and a favorable supply-demand balance anticipated as international routes continue to recover [2] Summary by Sections Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - **Juneyao Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15.32X, 9.02X, and 8.31X, benefiting from a dual-brand strategy and strong summer travel demand [11] - **Spring Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 21.55X, 17.58X, and 13.79X, recognized for its cost control and leading position in low-cost travel [11] - **China Southern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 66.22X, 11.65X, and 8.99X, focusing on building comprehensive international hubs [11] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 40.59X, 11.98X, and 9.19X, with advantages in domestic and international routes [11] - **Hainan Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 24.72X, 10.55X, and 8.94X, entering a performance rebound phase [11] Aviation Data Tracking - As of September 30, the civil aviation passenger volume was 0.60 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.13 billion but a year-on-year increase of 0.06 billion [12] - The average passenger load factor for civil aviation was 83.90%, down 3.00 percentage points month-on-month but up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year [21] - The civil aviation cargo and mail transport volume reached 800,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 98,000 tons [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3][11] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is influenced by downstream demand and exchange rate fluctuations, with ongoing expansion in interior products such as ceilings [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 19% in 2024, with projected revenues of 6,975 million yuan, and a net profit of 844 million yuan, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase [1][3] - The company's global strategy and cost control capabilities are seen as key drivers for future growth, particularly in the ceiling and interior product categories [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,861 in 2023, 6,975 in 2024, 8,370 in 2025, and 9,960 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 14%, 19%, 20%, and 19% respectively [1][3] - Net profit (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 654 in 2023, 844 in 2024, 1,022 in 2025, and 1,226 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 29%, 21%, and 20% respectively [1][3] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 is reported at 28.83%, showing an improvement due to a better product mix [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.51 in 2024, and further to 0.62 in 2025 and 0.74 in 2026 [1][3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.7 in 2023 to 18.3 in 2024, and further to 15.1 in 2025 and 12.6 in 2026 [1][3]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is at a significant turning point in its performance, with the disposal of loss-making assets and the resolution of impairment burdens [1] - The seat business has reached a profitability inflection point and is entering a large-scale phase, with cumulative seat project orders reaching 18 as of July 31, 2024 [1] - The overseas asset Grammer has also reached a profitability inflection point, with the disposal of TMD, a major loss-making subsidiary, expected to significantly improve Grammer's performance [1] - The company is a leading domestic seat manufacturer, with strong potential for both local and global substitution in the passenger car seat market [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 16.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 530 million [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 5.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 585 million [1] - The Q3 loss was mainly due to impairment provisions for assets held for sale, overseas layoff expenses, and increased financial expenses from exchange rate losses [1] Profitability and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 21.571 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.583 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 1.008 billion, and further increase to RMB 1.278 billion in 2026 [1] - EPS is projected to be -0.33 in 2024, 0.80 in 2025, and 1.01 in 2026 [1] - P/E ratios are forecasted at -40.9x for 2024, 16.7x for 2025, and 13.2x for 2026 [1] Business Highlights - The seat business has achieved full coverage of new energy vehicle, domestic, and joint venture customers, with 18 cumulative seat project orders as of July 31, 2024 [1] - The seat business achieved revenue of RMB 655 million in 2023 and nearly RMB 900 million in the first half of 2024, with the first quarterly profit in Q2 2024 [1] - The disposal of TMD, a major loss-making subsidiary of Grammer, is expected to significantly improve Grammer's performance, with TMD's losses totaling EUR 64.6 million from 2021 to 2023 [1] Industry Outlook - The passenger car seat market is characterized by large space, good structure, and accelerated consumption upgrades, with global CR5 exceeding 85% and domestic CR5 exceeding 70% [1] - The company is expected to leverage its cost advantages, rapid response capabilities, and Grammer's global resources to lead the local substitution and global expansion in the passenger car seat market [1]

慕思股份（001323.SZ） 家居用品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 前三季度营收微增，关注 Q4 订单改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|---------------------------|-------------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 评级： 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：郭美鑫 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,813 | 5,579 | 5,751 | 6,414 | 7,112 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -10% | -4% | 3% | 12% | 11% | | 执业证书编号： S0740520090002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 709 | 8 ...

伯特利（603596.SH） 汽车零部件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 毛利率环比提升，智能电控放量较好 ——伯特利 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

千味央厨（001215.SZ） 食品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。24 年前 3 季度，公司实现营业总收入 13.64 亿 元，同比+2.70%；归母净利润 0.82 亿元，同比-13.49%；扣非归母净利润 0.81 亿 元，同比-1.25%。3Q24，公司实现营业总收入 4.72 亿元，同比-1.17%；实现归母 净利润 0.22 亿元，同比-42.08%；扣非归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比-23.54%。 需求偏淡，收入承压。3Q24，公司营收同比下滑 1.17%，环比增加 10%，需求展现 出一定的旺季不旺特征，对公司营收增长形成一定压力，静待下游餐饮景气度企 稳回暖。 费用投放有所加大，盈利能力仍旧承压。3Q24，公司毛利率为 22.44%，同比 +0.04pcts；公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为 4.89%/9.26%/1.28%/-0.07%，同 比+0.81/+1.19/+0.15/-0.41pcts，费用投放有所加 ...