Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading service provider in the domestic television channel coverage sector, benefiting from the ongoing development of the audiovisual industry and the transformation of the broadcasting sector. It is also expanding into the microwave components business, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [9]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2011 and has evolved from a hardware supplier to a comprehensive enterprise that integrates technology product development, broadcasting and operator channel services, and digital marketing. It was listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in November 2021 and has received various accolades, including being recognized as a "Specialized and Innovative Small Giant" by Beijing in February 2022 [3][13]. - The company's revenue has grown from 128 million yuan in 2014 to 760 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 7.67 million yuan in 2014 to 20.21 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 11% [3][15]. Television Channel Comprehensive Operation Service - The television channel coverage service is a core business, with significant growth potential driven by the audiovisual market, which is expected to grow from 71.5 billion USD in 2023 to 97.5 billion USD by 2028, at a CAGR of 5% [5][38]. - The company has provided coverage services for over 30 satellite channels, 11 shopping channels, and 5 cartoon channels, effectively negotiating coverage fees to reduce costs and expand market share [6][45]. Microwave Components Business - The market for microwave components is expected to benefit from increasing national defense spending, which is projected to grow by over 7% in 2023 and 2024, outpacing GDP growth. This trend is anticipated to drive the development of domestic microwave components [7][61]. - The company's microwave components business has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 37.02 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 271.61% [8][68]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue is projected to decline in 2024 before rebounding in subsequent years, with net profits forecasted at -22 million yuan in 2024, 30 million yuan in 2025, and 58 million yuan in 2026 [2][9]. - The gross margin has remained stable, with a slight increase in 2024, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [20][58]. Market Outlook - The audiovisual industry is expected to continue growing, with the total revenue of the broadcasting and network audiovisual industry in China reaching 1.41 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.74% [38]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage technological innovations and expand its service offerings, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [45][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has a stable market share in the regional market, with a high dividend yield that highlights a safety margin for investors [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4,278 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23%. However, a recovery in profitability is anticipated in subsequent years [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in a relatively closed market, supported by a reasonable capacity layout and resource endowment [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company reported a revenue of 4,278 million yuan for 2024, down 22.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, a decrease of 27.5% [3]. - **Sales Volume**: In 2024, the company's cement sales volume was 15.859 million tons, down 10.1% year-on-year, but the market share remained stable [3]. - **Cement Price**: The average cement price for 2024 was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45.8 yuan compared to the previous year, influenced by weak demand and external competition [3]. - **Cost and Margin**: The cement cost per ton was 189.0 yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton was 49.2 yuan, down 26.4% [3]. - **Dividends**: The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 5.9 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.2%, which supports stock price stability [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 613 million yuan, 667 million yuan, and 701 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.6, 14.3, and 13.6 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various investment opportunities and risks associated with different sectors. Core Insights - The report highlights three major industry trends for the year: breakthroughs in private technology, defensive assets under stable policies, and safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Private Technology Breakthroughs - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in China's technology sector, particularly in internet leaders, computing power, and robotics. The low-cost AI wave brought by DeepSeek is expected to significantly reduce AI deployment costs, benefiting downstream industries such as internet, new energy vehicles, and robotics. However, the overall diffusion of these technologies is limited, and investors should avoid excessively high valuations in small-cap tech stocks [6][7]. 2. Defensive Assets - Under stable macroeconomic policies, defensive assets such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks (e.g., utilities) are highlighted. The report anticipates that the overall profitability of A-shares will face significant growth pressure in 2025 due to new capacity pressures in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, compounded by global trade risks. Dividend-paying assets are seen as stable with low valuations, providing strong safety margins [7][8]. 3. Safe-Haven Assets - The report discusses the potential rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, non-ferrous metals, and military-related industries due to increased geopolitical tensions and the "America First" policy under Trump 2.0. The weakening of the dollar and rising long-term inflation may enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset. Additionally, the demand for construction machinery and equipment is expected to remain strong as countries expand their manufacturing capabilities [8].

美国降息预期抬升，金属价格整体上涨 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 18 日 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 分析师：任恒 执业证书编号：S0740525010001 Email：renheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 141 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 30,692.52 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 28,838.08 | 1、《Alphamin Resources 锡矿暂停 生产，供应进一步趋紧》2025-03-17 2、《【中泰金属观察-全球制造业 PMI 跟踪】全球制造业 PMI 跟踪：2 月延 续扩张，需关注抢出口后的持续性 20250312》2025-03-15 属价格整体上涨》2025-03-10 1）贵金属：美国 2 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据均低于预期，通胀增长相对温和，美联储降息 预期抬升，利多短期黄金价格。中长期看，美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global garment manufacturer with a diversified product range, including casual wear, denim, intimate apparel, knitwear, sportswear, and outdoor clothing. It has established a strong customer base and is expanding into the sports sector, which is expected to enhance growth potential [3][5][36]. - The company has a stable revenue and profit trajectory, with a projected increase in net profit from 1.41 billion RMB in 2024 to 1.95 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [1][15]. - The global apparel market is expected to grow steadily, with the sportswear segment projected to reach a retail market size of $407.42 billion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2014 to 2024 [26][28]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, operating approximately 20 factories across Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with an annual production capacity exceeding 470 million pieces [5][6]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 76.5% of the shares, ensuring stable control [12]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenues of $2.177 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of $164 million, down 5.3% year-on-year. However, the company is entering a recovery phase, with a projected revenue growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2024 [15][26]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin of around 19-20% since 2018, with net profit margins expected to improve due to operational efficiencies and cost control measures [16][20]. Industry Analysis - The global apparel industry is projected to reach a retail market size of $1.45 trillion by 2024, with a CAGR of 3.0% from 2014 to 2024. The sportswear segment is expected to grow significantly, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [26][28]. - The concentration of brands in the sportswear segment is significantly higher than in other categories, with the top 10 brands expected to account for 42.3% of the market by 2024 [28][31]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes a diversified product portfolio and a collaborative model with clients, enhancing customer loyalty and operational efficiency. It serves over 50 brands, including Uniqlo, H&M, and Gap, with a focus on expanding its sportswear client base [36][41]. - The company is actively pursuing vertical integration by acquiring upstream suppliers, which is expected to improve delivery capabilities and profitability [36][7].

｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 民营科技突破与特朗普2.0下 资本市场或如何演绎？ ——2025年春季策略 2 0 2 5 . 0 3 . 1 8 徐驰 S0740519080003 xuchi@zts.com.cn 王永健 S0740522050001 wangyj09@zts.com.cn 张文宇 S0740520120003 zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 目 录 C O N T E N T S DeepSeek等科技密集突破 1 或带来哪些影响？ 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 4 海外：特朗普2.0或带来哪些影响？ 5 投资建议 2 更加重视科技： 政策维度有何新变化？ 3 高质量发展路线下， 我国经济与企业盈利演绎 6 风险提示 核心结论："预期与现实"间的反差 CONTENTS 目录 NTS 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 1 DeepSeek等突破带来中国科技"价值重估" 图表：春节至2月27日阶段高点AH指数表现（%） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 港股指数涨跌幅（%） A股指数涨跌幅（%） A股行业指数涨跌幅（%） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Sanjiu (华润三九) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.617 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.368 billion yuan, up 18.05% year-on-year [3] - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business maintained its leading position with a revenue of 12.482 billion yuan in 2024, growing 14.13% year-on-year, while the prescription drug segment achieved a revenue of 6.006 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to continue its steady growth, with projected revenues of 30.986 billion yuan, 34.549 billion yuan, and 38.004 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 12%, 12%, and 10% [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 24.739 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 37% and 17% [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.98 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 3.821 billion yuan [1][4] Business Segments - The CHC business segment is focusing on enhancing its product mix, particularly in cold, skin, and gastrointestinal categories, while the prescription drug segment is seeing a recovery in its formula granule business [3] - The company is also advancing its merger with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and the acquisition of Tianjin Tasly Pharmaceutical, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [3] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.0 in 2023 to 14.1 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [1][4] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.9 in 2023 to 2.3 in 2025, reflecting a strengthening financial position [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Lijiang Co., indicating a forecasted relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable operations in 2024, with Q4 revenue performance showing double growth. The dividend proposal remains consistent with the previous year, yielding a dividend rate of 3.5% based on the closing price on March 18 [3][5]. - The company’s 2024 revenue is projected at 808 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 211 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year due to fluctuations in gross margin and expense ratios [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 799 million yuan - 2024A: 808 million yuan - 2025E: 866 million yuan - 2026E: 936 million yuan - 2027E: 967 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 152% (2023A), 1% (2024A), 7% (2025E), 8% (2026E), 3% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 227 million yuan - 2024A: 211 million yuan - 2025E: 250 million yuan - 2026E: 283 million yuan - 2027E: 303 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 6072% (2023A), -7% (2024A), 18% (2025E), 13% (2026E), 7% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.41 yuan - 2024A: 0.38 yuan - 2025E: 0.45 yuan - 2026E: 0.52 yuan - 2027E: 0.55 yuan [2][5]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: 24.0 (2023A), 25.9 (2024A), 21.9 (2025E), 19.3 (2026E), 18.0 (2027E) - P/B: 2.2 (2023A), 2.2 (2024A), 2.0 (2025E), 1.9 (2026E), 1.8 (2027E) [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s core business segments, including cableway and performance services, continue to show growth. In 2024, the total number of visitors to the three cableways reached 6.6684 million, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The revenue from cableway services was 410 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, while performance revenue was 140 million yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase [5][6]. - The hotel business remains under pressure, with a revenue of 167 million yuan in 2024, down 11.1% year-on-year. The company continues to expand its hotel offerings, including the opening of a luxury hotel in July 2024 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The upcoming GTC 2025 is expected to reveal significant advancements in the GB300 architecture, including a 1.5x performance increase in single-card FP4 performance, memory capacity enhancement to 288GB, and upgraded networking capabilities [4]. - The GB300 cooling system is anticipated to shift from a large-area cold plate to individual liquid cooling plates for each chip, improving efficiency in heat dissipation [5]. - The Quantum 3400 X800 CPO version is set to begin mass production in Q3 2025, marking a significant milestone for NVIDIA's CPO product line [6]. - The introduction of 800V HVDC power systems is expected, with a new design integrating BBU and supercapacitors, significantly reducing size and weight while improving charging speed [7]. Summary by Sections Section: GB300 Architecture - The GB300 is projected to enhance performance with a 1.5x increase in FP4 performance and a memory upgrade to 288GB, utilizing 12-layer stacked HBM3E memory [4]. - Power consumption is expected to rise to 1.4kW for GB300, compared to previous models [4]. Section: Cooling Solutions - The cooling structure for GB300 may transition to individual liquid cooling plates for each chip, increasing the number of quick-connect fittings from 126 to 270 per cabinet [5]. Section: CPO Development - The Quantum 3400 X800 CPO will be NVIDIA's first mass-produced CPO product, featuring advanced multi-plane technology and a total switching capacity of 115.2T [6]. Section: Power Supply Innovations - The new power supply design for GB300 is expected to integrate supercapacitors and BBU, reducing the size by 50-70% and weight by 50-60%, while enhancing charging speed by five times [7].