Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to measure the similarity between return sequences over a specific time range. It identifies sequences with high similarity and calculates their returns as a proxy for expected future returns. This approach serves as an alternative to traditional momentum factors, especially when the number of cross-sectional assets is limited [4][30][33] **Model Construction Process**: 1. For each asset, take the past 20-day return sequence \( s \) [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between \( s \) and the 20-day return sequences of all assets over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] 5. Constraints: - Minimum lookback window of 5 days to avoid overly correlated sequences due to close time intervals [33] - Maximum lookback window of 120 days to prevent factor failure caused by market regime shifts [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Model Evaluation**: The DTW Expected Return Factor demonstrates strong trend-following characteristics and provides significant advantages over traditional momentum factors, especially in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: DTW Expected Return Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor leverages DTW to identify sequences with high similarity across assets and uses their subsequent returns as a proxy for expected returns. This approach captures price inertia while addressing limitations of traditional momentum factors [4][30][33] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Extract the past 20-day return sequence for each asset [33] 2. Compute DTW distances between the sequence and all other assets' 20-day return sequences over a rolling window of 5–120 days [33] 3. Select the top 10% of sequences with the smallest DTW distances [33] 4. Calculate the average return of these sequences over the next 5 days as the factor value [33] **Formula**: DTW cost function: $$ \operatorname{cost}(i,j) = d(i,j) + \operatorname*{min} \begin{cases} \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i,j-1) \\ \operatorname{cost}(i-1,j-1) \end{cases} $$ where \( d(i,j) \) represents the pointwise distance between two sequences [17] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibits strong trend-following characteristics and performs well in scenarios with fewer cross-sectional assets. It also shows robustness when combined with trend-based timing strategies [4][30][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **ETF Rotation Portfolio**: - **IC Mean**: 0.034 - **ICIR**: 0.128 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 16.2% - **Turnover Rate**: 73% [35] - **STAR 50 Constituents**: - **IC Mean**: 0.053 - **ICIR**: 0.251 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 51.0% - **Turnover Rate**: 72% [40]

Email：houxd@zts.com.cn 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 8.09 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 8.0 | 19.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 8.71 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 13.4 | 23.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | 招商积余 | 1 ...

——ETF市场周报2025.05.23 李倩云 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740520050001 邮 箱：liqy02@zts.com 汤伟杰 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 科技及高制板块交易最热， 科技及高制板块资金流入最多 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740523050001 邮 箱：xiongjy01@zts.com 熊婧妍 证券分析师执业证书编号：S0740523110005 邮 箱：xiongjy01@zts.com 2 0 2 5 . 0 5 . 2 4 1 投资要点 风险提示：历史数据不代表未来；政策及经济超预期波动；流动性冲击影响市场，研报信息更新不及时的风险。 2 n ETF市场规模：当前市场上共有1178只ETF，总规模为41087.35亿元。股票型ETF数量最多，为 948只，规模为29638.73亿元，占市场规模的72.14%，其次是跨境ETF。股票型ETF中，主题指数 ETF数量最多，为448只，规模为4560.88亿元，其次为规模指数ETF。 n 权益ETF估值：A股市场上，ETF跟踪规模最高的30个指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish probability of 62% for the coal industry and 61% for the media industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant inflows in the food and beverage, as well as mechanical equipment sectors [5]. - The active equity funds have increased their positions notably in the beauty and personal care sector [5]. - The ETF share growth is particularly high in the military industry, while the automotive sector has seen a decrease in share [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Investment Rating - The coal industry has a bullish probability of 62% and the media industry has a probability of 61% [4]. Fund Flow Insights - The food and beverage sector ranks first in net inflows, while mechanical equipment ranks second [4]. - Active equity funds have increased their positions in the beauty and personal care sector, indicating a positive outlook [5]. ETF Insights - The report identifies ETFs with high growth potential based on the AI model scoring above 0.8, focusing on those with a recent average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million [7]. - Specific ETFs highlighted include the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF and the Hong Kong Medical ETF [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [20]. Core Insights - The first nationwide public company bond supporting small and micro enterprises was successfully issued on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total issuance scale of 500 million yuan and an interest rate of 2.50% [1][16]. - Of the raised funds, 350 million yuan is allocated to support the development of small and micro enterprises related to the industry chain, while 150 million yuan is designated for replenishing working capital [1][16]. - The issuance aims to alleviate the financing difficulties faced by small and micro enterprises by providing liquidity support [1][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Nationwide First Public Company Bond for Small and Micro Enterprises - The bond was issued by Jiangxi Financial Holding Group on April 23, 2025, with a term of 3+N years [1][16]. - The issuance is a significant step towards promoting inclusive finance and addressing the financing challenges of small and micro enterprises [1][16]. 2. Beijing Stock Exchange Bond Market Situation - The bond market officially opened on January 15, 2024, and has developed a product system that includes 10 specialized types of bonds [2][17]. - The exchange has conducted targeted research and training to align financial resources with the needs of small and micro enterprises [2][17]. 3. Investment Strategy for the Beijing Stock Exchange - The report highlights several sectors to watch in 2025, including: - Data Centers: Companies like Clait and Shuguang Data Creation are noted for their advantages in nuclear power and liquid cooling technology [6][14]. - Robotics: Key players include Suzhou Axis and Audiwei, focusing on bearings and sensors [6][14]. - Semiconductors: Hualing and Kaide Quartz are recognized as leaders in third-party testing and quartz devices [6][14]. - Consumer Goods: Companies such as Taihu Snow and Lusi are highlighted for their innovative products [6][14]. - Military Information Technology: Chengdian Guangxin and Xingtuzhihui are expected to benefit from advancements in military and aerospace sectors [6][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 23.45 billion, 26.48 billion, and 30.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% to 14.3% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 7,836 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 10,201 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% in 2023 and 12% in 2025 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,549 million yuan in 2023 to 2,345 million yuan in 2025, with a significant increase of 35% in 2024 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.65 yuan in 2023 to 0.98 yuan in 2025 [2] Market Position and Prospects - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is expected to grow significantly, with SSGJ707 showing promising clinical data and a strong partnership with Pfizer, which enhances the clinical development speed in the U.S. [6] - The company has a robust pipeline with four mid-to-late stage monoclonal antibodies, including IL17, which is expected to be commercialized in 2025, indicating a strong potential for revenue generation [6] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 in 2023 to 18.9 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.4 in 2025, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The company is anticipated to see a significant acceleration in domestic revenue due to multiple late-stage clinical assets, including IL17 monoclonal antibody expected to commercialize in 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Projected operating revenue (in million yuan): 7,836 (2023A), 9,108 (2024A), 10,201 (2025E), 11,494 (2026E), 13,153 (2027E) with growth rates of 14%, 16%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): 1,549 (2023A), 2,090 (2024A), 2,345 (2025E), 2,648 (2026E), 3,027 (2027E) with growth rates of -19%, 35%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 0.65 (2023A), 0.87 (2024A), 0.98 (2025E), 1.10 (2026E), 1.26 (2027E) [2] Market Position and Development - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing the outlook for SSGJ707 [6] - The company’s collaboration with Pfizer is expected to accelerate clinical development in the U.S. due to Pfizer's robust clinical and commercialization capabilities [6] Valuation Metrics - Projected P/E ratios: 28.5 (2023A), 21.2 (2024A), 18.9 (2025E), 16.7 (2026E), 14.6 (2027E) [2] - Projected P/B ratios: 3.2 (2023A), 2.9 (2024A), 2.4 (2025E), 2.0 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][8] Core Views - The company has strong revenue growth and is on the verge of breakthroughs in its clinical pipeline [4][5] - The recent licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707 is a significant milestone, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth from its main business, with key products in late-stage clinical development [5] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2023A is 1,014 million, with a growth rate of 23% year-over-year; expected revenue for 2025E is 1,370 million, with a growth rate of 15% [3] - Projected net profit for 2023A is 295 million, with a staggering growth rate of 498% year-over-year; expected net profit for 2025E is 300 million, reflecting a decline of 57% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.48 for 2023A and 0.49 for 2025E [3] Clinical Pipeline and Market Potential - The company has four mid-to-late stage clinical assets, each expected to generate over 1 billion in revenue, with the IL17 monoclonal antibody anticipated to be commercialized in 2025 [5] - The IL1β monoclonal antibody is expected to submit its NDA in 2025, targeting a large patient population with limited treatment options [5] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 116.5 for 2025E and a P/B ratio of 6.1 for the same year [3] - The net asset return rate (ROE) is expected to be 5% for 2025E, with a net profit margin of 21.5% [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 86.4 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.04 billion, a significant decline of 67.3% compared to the previous year [5][6][17]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and increased impairment provisions due to market downturns. The gross margin for 2024 was 10.5%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous year [6][9]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintained a strong market position, ranking 8th in industry sales, and focused on acquiring high-quality land reserves in core cities [6][17]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2023A: Revenue of RMB 80.4 billion, net profit of RMB 3.2 billion - 2024A: Revenue of RMB 86.4 billion, net profit of RMB 1.04 billion - 2025E: Revenue of RMB 90.4 billion, net profit of RMB 1.13 billion - 2026E: Revenue of RMB 92.6 billion, net profit of RMB 1.27 billion - 2027E: Revenue of RMB 97.8 billion, net profit of RMB 1.46 billion [4][15][17]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 21.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155% [14]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s sales amount for 2024 was RMB 114.54 billion, a decrease of 19.4% year-on-year, with a sales area of 3.92 million square meters, down 11.9% [6][15]. - The company has adopted a precise investment strategy, focusing on first-tier and key second-tier cities, with over 70% of new land reserves located in these areas [6][15]. - The company’s total land reserves as of the end of 2024 stood at 19.71 million square meters, with 96% located in first and second-tier cities [6][15]. Valuation Metrics - The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14.8 for 2025, decreasing to 11.4 by 2027. The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is currently at 0.30, which is below the average of comparable companies [4][17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6-12 months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a core supplier of ultra-high voltage cables and is deeply engaged in military and civilian aircraft component processing, which is expected to drive continuous performance improvement [8][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.20 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.25 billion yuan, a decline of 69.15% [8][12]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed promising results with a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.35%, and a net profit of 0.16 billion yuan, up 9.86% year-on-year [8][12]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates in three main segments: 1) Electric wire and cable products, focusing on ultra-high voltage and high-end cables, contributing 52% of revenue and 82% of gross profit in 2024; 2) Precision processing and assembly of aircraft components, primarily through its subsidiary Chengdu Hangfei; 3) Aluminum-based composite materials, with products widely used across various industries [9][14]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 6.96 billion yuan, 7.70 billion yuan, and 8.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.19 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan [12][15]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.28% in 2024 to 9.40% by 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and product mix optimization [12][15]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leading supplier in the ultra-high voltage cable market and is enhancing its capabilities in aircraft component manufacturing, benefiting from strong partnerships with major domestic aerospace manufacturers [11][14]. - The report highlights the company's focus on R&D, with a 2.01% R&D expense ratio in 2024, aimed at maintaining its competitive edge in high-tech cable products and advanced manufacturing processes [8][12]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for military aircraft and the rollout of domestically produced large aircraft, which will enhance its revenue streams [11][15]. - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the company, supported by its dual focus on cable production and military component manufacturing, leading to a favorable investment outlook [15].