1、 三重催化叠加，继续看多航空 ≈[投资要点 Table_Summary] n 板块涨跌幅：本周交运板块上涨 11.1%，表现劣于大盘。交运行业细分板块中涨幅前 三的分别为航空指数(15.9%)、物流综合指数(14.9%)、机场指数(13.5%)。航空机场板 块中涨幅前三的分别为华夏航空(25.4%)、中信海直(21.6%)、吉祥航空(21.2%)。 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 13 行业总市值(百万元) 651,393 行业流通市值(百万元) 510,824 交运/航空机场 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 09 月 28 日 评级：增持（维持） 分析师：杜冲 执业证书编号： S0740522040001 电话： Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 分析师：李鼎莹 执业证书编号：S0740524080001 电话： Email：lidy@zts.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 1,450.00 1,500.00 1,550.00 1,600.00 1,650.00 1,700.00 1,750.00 1,800.00 1,850 ...

[Table_Industry] 强商业化驱动收入利润持续超预期，强询证证 据支持长产品生命周期 艾力斯(688578.SH)/医药生 物证券研究报告/研究简报 2024 年 09 月 26 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|----------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| ...

乘政策红利之风，加快一体化整合 青岛港（601298.SH）/交运 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 27 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Industry] 行业名称 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024 年 9 月 27 日 金融｜解读政治局会议最新表述：金融政策和财政政策的转向 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------|------------|-----------|----------------------------------- ...

Core Viewpoints - The development of the "Big Xinchuang" (信创) industry is an inevitable trend, with a trillion-dollar market opportunity as the industry transitions from government-led "Small Xinchuang" to a broader industry-level "Big Xinchuang" [1] - The domestic substitution rate for foundational software and hardware remains low, with significant room for improvement in areas such as CPUs, operating systems, databases, and middleware [1] - The Xinchuang market is expected to reach 4.23 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by both policy and market forces [1] Investment Recommendations - Key areas to focus on include operating systems (e.g., China Software, Chenmai Tech), databases (e.g., Dameng Data, Taiji), middleware (e.g., TongTech, Zhongchuang), and chips (e.g., Yuntian Lifei) [2] - Other sectors with potential include ERP (e.g., Yonyou, Kingdee), office software (e.g., Kingsoft Office, Foxit), industrial software (e.g., ZWSOFT, Huada Jiutian), and financial IT (e.g., Hundsun, Vertex) [2] Xinchuang Market Development - Xinchuang covers a wide range of computer fields, including foundational hardware, middleware, and application software, with both direct and indirect beneficiaries [3] - The industry has evolved from localized upgrades to full-scale promotion, with significant milestones such as the 79th document from SASAC in 2022, which mandates 100% Xinchuang substitution for state-owned enterprises by 2027 [6][7] Policy Support - National and local governments have issued numerous policies to support Xinchuang, with a focus on accelerating the adoption of domestic technologies in key sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and energy [8][9][10] - Local governments have also introduced specific incentives, including subsidies for R&D, production, and talent recruitment, to boost the Xinchuang industry [9][10] Industry Expansion - The Xinchuang industry is transitioning from government-led initiatives to broader industry adoption, with sectors like finance, telecommunications, and power leading the way [12] - The market is expected to grow rapidly, with the overall Xinchuang market size projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2023 and reach 4.23 trillion yuan by 2027 [16] Foundational Software and Hardware - The domestic substitution rate for foundational software and hardware remains low, with CPUs, storage devices, and operating systems having substitution rates below 10% [19] - The domestic operating system market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 8.48 billion yuan by 2028 [23] Operating Systems - Domestic operating systems are transitioning from "usable" to "user-friendly," with significant progress in areas like compatibility and ecosystem development [26] - Key players in the domestic operating system market include Kirin Software, UnionTech, and Huawei, with HarmonyOS showing rapid growth in the mobile OS market [21][22] Databases - The domestic database market is growing rapidly, with the market size expected to reach 1.29 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by new technologies like cloud-native and AI-native databases [36][38] - Domestic database vendors are gaining market share, with companies like Dameng Data, Huawei, and Alibaba leading the way [39] Middleware - The domestic middleware market is expected to reach 14.42 billion yuan by 2026, with domestic vendors like TongTech and Zhongchuang gaining market share [46][47] - Key trends in the middleware industry include the integration of middleware with PaaS platforms and the increasing adoption of open-source solutions [52][53] Chips - The domestic CPU market is dominated by Intel and AMD, but domestic players like Loongson, Huawei, and Phytium are making progress, with significant growth potential [58][59] - In the GPU market, Nvidia dominates, but domestic players like Jingjia Micro and Biren Tech are emerging, though the industry is still in its early stages [61][63]

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 9 月 26 日 财政逆周期调节如何加力 ——2024 年 9 月政治局会议解读 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 [Table_Summary] 要点 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 每年 9 月政治局会议中，以经济为主题的并不多见。和 9 月 24 日三部委新 闻发布会一样，这种超预期的安排，释放了改善预期、稳定经济和提振市场 的积极信号。 ◼ 货币金融和地产领域的新政策，9 月 24 日的新闻发布会已经做了预告。目前 市场最关心的是，年内是否会有增量财政工具，本次会议没有给出明确的答 案。 ◼ 我们认为，从支出空间看，不排除四季度出台增量财政工具的可能。 ◼ 今年 7 月政治局会议要求"实施好积极的财政政策"，9 月政治局会议要求 "加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出，切实做好基层 '三保'工作。"对比来看，对于财政的部署明显更积极。 相关报告 ◼ 今年 1-8 月，公共财政赤字使用率为 42.4%，和过去四年同期相比，仅次于 2 022 年同期（47.6%）。减收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.43 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with its BaaS (Business as a Service) business performing particularly well. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.321 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [3]. - The gross margin remains high at 73.19%, reflecting a focus on AI technology research and development [3]. - The company has successfully integrated AI applications with its products, enhancing performance and reducing response times significantly [3]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 29.55 billion CNY, 32.88 billion CNY, and 36.93 billion CNY respectively, and net profits of 3.05 billion CNY, 3.98 billion CNY, and 4.78 billion CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 2,062 - 2023A: 2,681 - 2024E: 2,955 - 2025E: 3,288 - 2026E: 3,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 26% - 2023A: 30% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 12% [1]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 240 - 2023A: 340 - 2024E: 305 - 2025E: 398 - 2026E: 478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 107% - 2023A: 42% - 2024E: -10% - 2025E: 31% - 2026E: 20% [1]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 15.6, 11.0, 12.3, 9.4, and 7.8 for the years 2023 to 2026 respectively [1].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张德礼：宏观视角看 924 三部委一揽子政策 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 26 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： Email： [b_Suy 今日预览 研究分享>> 【宏观】张德礼：宏观视角看 924 三部委一揽子政策 【地产】由子沛：三部委联合发布新政，涉及下调存量按揭利率、首付比例 等举措 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 研究分享 ►【宏观】张德礼：宏观视角看 924 三部委一揽子政策 9 月 24 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况。会上宣布了一揽子 政策，涉及货币政策、资本市场和房地产等领域，力度超预期。 从宏观视角看 9 月 24 日的三部委一揽子政策，我们认为以下五点值得关注： 一是这次新闻发布会，公告时间到召开时间只隔了一天，间隔明显比其他发布会的短，可能是临时 安排的，释放了政策转向的积极信号。希望通过一揽子政策，来恢复信心、改善预期和稳定经济。 二是预计后续将 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：政策协同，多管齐下，全面呵护市场信心回升 ——9 月 24 日国新办发布会解读 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 25 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： Email： [b_Suy 今日预览 今日重点 >> 【策略】徐驰：政策协同，多管齐下，全面呵护市场信心回升——9 月 2 4 日国新办发布会解读 【策略】徐驰：下半年行业轮动或呈现哪些特点？——行业配置系列专 题 【银行】戴志锋：专题｜金融政策组合拳的综合影响：银行经营与流动 性 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【非银】蒋峤：924 资本市场政策解读：新设货币工具直达市场主体，政 策力度超预期 【交运】杜冲：铁路行业专题报告：深化改革大有可为，择优布局未来 可期 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【策略】徐驰：政策协同，多管齐下，全面呵护市场信心回升——9 月 24 日国新办发布会解读 徐 驰｜中泰策略行业首席 S0740519080003 国务院新闻办公室于 2024 ...

重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 保利发展 8.29 1.0 1.13 1.21 1.27 8.2 7.3 6.9 6.5 8.29 1.0 买入 招商蛇口 9.60 0.7 0.90 1.07 1.15 14.8 10.7 9.0 8.3 9.60 0.7 买入 招商积余 9.23 0.7 0.85 1.02 1.19 13.3 10.9 9.0 7.8 9.23 0.7 买入 华润万象生活 27.25 1.3 1.59 1.90 2.23 19.2 15.5 12.9 11.0 27.25 1.3 买入 保利物业 27.70 2.5 2.95 3.42 3.93 10.0 8.5 7.3 6.4 27.70 2.5 买入 备注：股价以 9 月 25 日收盘价为准 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 Email：liy ...