中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 | 领 先 | 深 度 | 诚 信 券 - 研究院报 - 告 证 中泰金工行业量价资金流厂 2 0 2 5 . 3 . 1 5 汤伟杰 证券分析师执业证书编号： S0740523050001 联系电话: 18217397163 邮 箱: tangwj02@zts.com.cn | 中泰证券 研究所 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250315量价资金流周观点 | | | | | -中泰金融工程团队 | | | | | 万图师Al观点 | | | | | 行业 | 行业 看涨概率 | | 看涨概率 | | 81% | 钢铁 | 医药生物 | 71% | | 79% | 煤炭 | 汽车 | 67% | | 龙虎榜资金流观点 | | | | | 当期净流入 累计净流入变化 | 行业 | | 综合排名 | | 1 | 非银金融 | 1 | 1 | | 2 | 有色金属 | 2 | 2 | | 3 | 汽车 | 3 | 3 | | 公募基金权益仓位变化 | | | | | 上周仓位 | 基金 本周仓位 | | 周度变化 | | 90.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 to 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the North Exchange is expected to improve in 2025, following a significant adjustment in the index, with a focus on spring market activity [6][24]. - The North Exchange has 469 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 798.74 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 480.61 billion [1]. - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 1.33% during the week of March 10 to March 14, 2025, closing at 1409.76 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.59% [3][9]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of March 14, 2025, there are 264 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 3.03 billion [3][19]. - The average daily trading volume for the week was 42.05 billion, a decrease of 7.44% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 11.41% [11][19]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors during the week included utilities, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and textiles, with respective gains of 21.81%, 21.35%, 16.46%, 14.64%, and 13.79% [15][19]. Individual Stock Performance - Out of 264 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 214 stocks rose, 50 fell, and none remained flat, resulting in an 81.06% increase in stock prices [19][24]. New Stock Listings - No new stock issuances occurred during the week, but several companies updated their review statuses, including one company accepted for review and three under inquiry [4][22]. Key News - The North Exchange conducted training sessions for listed companies to enhance communication with investors and improve the quality of information disclosure [5][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for potential investment opportunities in 2025 [6][24].

Domestic Policy News - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining the same target as 2024, with a budget deficit rate of 4% [9][10][12] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support state-owned commercial banks in capital replenishment [10][12] - The monetary policy aims for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to maintain ample liquidity in the economy [10][22] Support for Private and Technology Enterprises - The central bank and five departments support private enterprises in capital market development, emphasizing equal treatment for all types of ownership enterprises [2][8] - The government is expanding the scale of re-loans for technological innovation and technical transformation, increasing from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan [38] - The establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology is planned [40] Real Estate Sector - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes support for stabilizing the real estate market, including expanding financing coordination mechanisms and ensuring project delivery [3][24][42] - The government is implementing measures to support the transformation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing [42] Consumer and Employment Policies - The government is promoting consumption through initiatives like expanding the range of subsidies for trade-ins and encouraging financial institutions to increase personal consumption loans [4][26] - Employment support plans are being organized to release job opportunities in advanced manufacturing and new consumption hotspots [41] Local Policies - Local policies focus on emerging industries, promoting investment and consumption, and providing childbirth subsidies [45]

投资发力 ——2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 相关报告 1、《衰退担忧明显升温》2025-03-13 2、《CPI 节后回落》2025-03-09 3、《美国劳动力市场的降温迹象》 2025-03-09 由于去年和今年的春节错月效应，2 月单月数据参考意义有限，将 1-2 月合并与前值 （去年 12 月，下同）具有可比性。合并 1-2 月来看，我们认为： 生产上，同比增速回落，考虑到上年基数偏弱，同比增速走弱表明生产波动；出口交 货值同比增速回落，剔除价格后，外需的实际物量同比增长有所回落，"抢出口"降 温。 从同比数据看，1-2 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%（前值 6.2%），回落 0.3 个 百分点；从定基指数来看，2024 年 1-2 月定基指数为年内偏低点，在基数偏弱背景下， 同比增速回落，反应了工业生产短期波动；从环比增速看，1 月环比增长 0.19%，2 月环比增长 ...

【中泰传媒】呼市发布育儿补贴细则，把握出版、AI+教育投资机 会 传媒 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股价 简称 | | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：康雅雯 | | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 | | 南方传媒 | 15.45 | 1.05 | 1.43 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 14.71 | 10.80 | 15.77 | 14.44 | 13.43 | 买入 增持 | | | | 皖新传媒 | 6.99 | 0.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector continues to show strong performance, with a year-to-date return of +4.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.2% [4][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in consumer healthcare, driven by recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][11] - Key investment themes include innovation in pharmaceuticals, turnaround opportunities, and the integration of AI technologies [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.59%, while the pharmaceutical sector increased by 1.77%, ranking 15th among 31 sub-industries [4][11] - Specific segments such as pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical services saw increases of 6.44%, 2.63%, and 1.46% respectively [4][11] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, Aier Eye Hospital, Dong-E E-Jiao, and others, with expected earnings growth and favorable valuations [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with improving fundamentals and low valuations, particularly in the eye care and dental sectors [5][11] Policy and Regulatory Developments - Recent government initiatives, including the introduction of child-rearing subsidies, are expected to positively impact the reproductive and maternal health sectors [6][7] - The National Healthcare Security Administration's guidelines for brain-computer interface services are anticipated to accelerate commercialization in this emerging field [6][11] Valuation Metrics - The pharmaceutical sector is currently valued at 23.4 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, representing a 36.0% premium over the broader A-share market [17] - The TTM valuation stands at 27.3 times PE, which is below the historical average of 35.1 times PE, indicating potential for valuation recovery [17]

看好消费回暖，关注内需投资机会 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：张潇 | | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 | | 百亚股份 | 25.53 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 59.37 | 47.28 | 34.47 | 25.61 | 19.54 | 买入 | | | | 台华新材 | 11.26 | 0.31 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The financial data for February shows a significant increase in social financing, driven by government bond financing, particularly the accelerated issuance of local government special bonds [5][6]. - The total social financing in February amounted to 22,333 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan [5]. - The net financing from government bonds reached 16,967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10,956 billion yuan, indicating strong government support for financing [5][6]. - The report highlights a notable decline in household loans, with a reduction of 3,891 billion yuan in February, suggesting fluctuations in consumer demand and home-buying intentions [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - The social financing stock grew by 8.19% year-on-year in February, with a notable increase in local government special bond issuance [3][5]. - The total new RMB loans in February were 10,100 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,400 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4]. Loan Breakdown - Household loans decreased by 3,891 billion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 10,400 billion yuan, indicating a shift in lending dynamics [4][5]. - Short-term loans for enterprises showed a year-on-year increase, while medium to long-term loans decreased, reflecting varying demand across sectors [4][5]. Deposits and Savings - Total RMB deposits increased by 44,200 billion yuan in February, with a year-on-year increase of 34,600 billion yuan, indicating strong deposit growth [7]. - Fiscal deposits also saw a significant increase, suggesting a slower pace of fiscal expenditure [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.77%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% year-on-year [2][5]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) segment is expected to be a significant growth driver, with revenue projected at 1.884 billion yuan for 2024, despite a decline of 6.05% [3][4]. - The API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) segment is anticipated to generate 8.651 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, showing an increase of 8.32% [4]. - The formulation segment is expected to achieve revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.51% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.474 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.81% [2]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.815 billion yuan, 14.218 billion yuan, and 15.941 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 6.59%, 10.95%, and 12.12% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.119 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.55% year-on-year growth [2][5]. Business Segment Analysis - The CDMO segment has shown a rapid increase in project numbers, with 1,601 quoted projects (+77%) and 996 ongoing projects (+35%) [3]. - The API segment is expanding its production capacity with the completion of new high-end production facilities and plans for additional projects [4][12]. - The formulation segment is also set to enhance its production capabilities with new facilities under design, aiming to improve overall production efficiency [4][12].