2025 年 03 月 25 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 超长债性价比究竟如何 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 超长债性价比究竟如何 超长债期限利差的中枢将如何变动？从近期经济基本面的表现来 看，地产销售数据出现边际好转，2 月制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以上， 或表明基本面阶段性企稳。若后续经济数据持续向好，经济增速的 二阶导拐点确定，投资者的长期经济预期由弱转强，那么超长债期 限利差的中枢可能上移。 各机构需求将如何变化？受监管影响，农金社对超长债的需求或边 际弱化。保险的潜在需求不弱，但点位要求较高。股市情绪好转， 权益资金的需求量或也有所下降。 总结而言，超长债期限利差的中枢有上行的可能，同时今年主力参 与机构对超长债的需求可能边际下降，期限利差大幅向下偏离中枢 的可能性也有所降低。因此，今年超长端的赔率或相对一般，30Y-10Y 的期限利差不排除阶段性扩大到 25-30BP 的可能，胜率则更取决于 择时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.43%, and a net profit of 519 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [6][8] - The company plans to increase its pig output to over 4 million heads in 2025, a significant increase compared to 2024 [6] - The company is focused on cost optimization, with the complete cost of raising pigs maintained below 6.75 yuan per jin, aiming for a target of 6.5 yuan per jin in 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 2.7552 million pigs, with 2.6838 million being market pigs, an increase of 50.76% from 2023 [6] - The company produced 806,800 tons of feed and purchased 348,400 tons in 2024 [6] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.645 billion yuan, 8.592 billion yuan, and 10.701 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 925 million yuan, 894 million yuan, and 1.836 billion yuan [7][8] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 11 for 2025 and 5 for 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][8] - The projected ROE for 2025 is 22%, increasing to 29% by 2027 [7][8] - The company’s sales net profit margin is projected to be 9% in 2024, improving to 17% by 2027 [7][8]

Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Domestic economy is entering a peak season post-Spring Festival, with demand expected to rise due to resumption of work and production[6] - Significant price increases observed in certain commodities, with some rising over 8% since the Spring Festival, including small metals (antimony, bismuth, cobalt), rare earths, and chemical products[6] - Stock prices in certain sectors have already reflected these price expectations, particularly in small metals, influenced by overseas geopolitical events and domestic export controls[6] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on chemical products, rare earths, and agricultural products due to price increases, with notable stock price movements: sulfur (53.4% price increase vs. 14.9% stock price increase), bismuth (80.2% vs. 17.4%), and cobalt (57% vs. 18%)[6] - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals (cobalt, bismuth, antimony, tin, rare earths, copper) and new energy sectors like lithium iron phosphate batteries[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected global economic fluctuations, uncertainties in U.S. tariffs and monetary policies, and escalated Sino-U.S. trade tensions[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding policy implications and market dynamics, as well as the potential for data discrepancies and subjective assessments[6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ) as it is covered for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Pengding Holdings is a global leader in the PCB industry, with a comprehensive layout in consumer electronics, automotive, and server sectors [7]. - The global PCB market is expected to grow from $69.5 billion in 2023 to $90.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 5.4% [7][47]. - The trend towards edge AI is anticipated to drive both volume and price increases in the PCB segment, benefiting companies like Pengding Holdings [7]. - The company is actively expanding its capabilities in the automotive and server sectors, which are expected to provide a second growth curve [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Pengding Holdings has been deeply involved in the PCB industry for many years, providing a one-stop service platform for various PCB products [9]. - The company ranks as the largest PCB manufacturer globally according to Prismark, with a diverse product range including FPC, SMA, SLP, HDI, Mini LED, RPCB, and Rigid Flex [16][17]. Market Data - As of March 24, 2025, the current stock price is 37.05 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 85.9 billion CNY [5]. - The stock has shown a 54.6% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6]. Industry Trends - The global PCB market is projected to reach $90.4 billion by 2028, driven by demand in consumer electronics, automotive, and server applications [47][56]. - The automotive PCB market is expected to grow from $9.15 billion in 2023 to $11.52 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.7% [110]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Pengding Holdings are 35.14 billion CNY in 2024, 40.93 billion CNY in 2025, and 47.27 billion CNY in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 16.5%, and 15.5% respectively [7]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are 3.62 billion CNY, 4.50 billion CNY, and 5.50 billion CNY, with growth rates of 10.2%, 24.3%, and 22.1% respectively [7]. Product and Client Base - The company serves a high-quality client base, including major players like Apple, Huawei, and Microsoft, with a significant portion of revenue derived from these relationships [17][108]. - The product structure is evolving, with increasing contributions from automotive and server applications, which are expected to rise from 0.9% in 2022 to 3.3% in the first half of 2024 [35]. R&D and Innovation - Pengding Holdings is increasing its R&D investment, with a focus on AI technologies and new product developments, reflected in a rising R&D expense ratio [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The core online travel agency (OTA) platform shows strong growth momentum, with notable performance in international business. In Q4 2024, the core OTA achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan (up 20% year-on-year) and an operating profit margin of 28.4% (up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year) [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan (up 36.8% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company is focusing on vertical expansion in the vacation business, which contributed additional revenue, achieving 780 million yuan in Q4 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a total transaction volume of 54.7 billion yuan (up 2.2% year-on-year) [4]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 41 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with the total annual paying user count reaching 238 million (up 1.5% year-on-year) [5]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.5 billion, 22.8 billion, and 25.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.56 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and the recovery of international business [8]. - The company’s market capitalization target for 2025 is set at 49.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 23 HKD per share [8].

2025 年 03 月 25 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 48 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024 年归母净利润同比+77%，"汽车+航空航天+机器人"业务壮大公司增长引擎--豪能股份/汽车零部件 (603809/212802) 公司动态研究 2024 年营销改革激发长期纯销活力看好主业当下业绩拐点，子公司体外培育牛黄长期稳健增长--健民集团/ 中药Ⅱ(600976/213702) 公司点评 本周北证 50 指数有所回调，下周交大铁发上会--北交所行业普通报告 利润增长超预期，坚持长期高质量投入--拼多多/海外(PDD/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 归母净利润高增，产品矩阵持续丰富--腾景科技/光学光电子(688195/212703) 科创板公司动态研究 双季戊四醇、有机硅价格上涨，关注铬盐在军工领域的应用--行业周报 致力于拓宽产品系列，东南亚收入高速增长--伟仕佳杰/IT 服务Ⅱ(00856/217103) 点评报告（港股美股） 2024 年业绩稳健增长，单品 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [4][6] - The company sold 71.60 million pigs in 2024, including 65.48 million market pigs, 5.66 million piglets, and 0.465 million breeding pigs [6] - The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reduced to approximately 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, and the average annual cost around 14 yuan/kg [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.08 billion yuan, highlighting its investment value [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with significant growth in both metrics [4][6] - The company has a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million pigs per year and has established 10 slaughterhouses with a capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] Cost Management - The company has seen continuous optimization in breeding costs, with production indicators improving, including a PSY (Pigs Sold per Sow per Year) above 29 and a survival rate close to 86% [6] - The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs is around 800 grams, and the feed-to-meat ratio is approximately 2.8 [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.58 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 133.01 billion yuan, and 158.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.61 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 27.65 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a turning point in the company's atomization business and expresses optimism about the future of its HNB (Heated Not Burned) business [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.8 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 11.0% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 11.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit was 1.3 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year [4][6][7]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.05 HKD per share as of December 31, 2024 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The self-owned brand business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 2.48 billion RMB, up 34.0% year-on-year. Notably, revenue from Europe and other regions for electronic atomization products was 2.02 billion RMB, up 37.2% [6]. - Revenue from enterprise client business was 9.32 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%. The report anticipates that increased regulatory enforcement in the U.S. will enhance market share for compliant products [6]. Research and Development - The company maintained a high R&D expenditure, amounting to 1.57 billion RMB, which is 13.3% of total revenue. This includes 1.03 billion RMB for electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][7]. - Sales and distribution expenses rose significantly by 74.7% to 920 million RMB, attributed to increased marketing efforts for self-owned brands globally [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.13 billion RMB in 2025, 15.27 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.54 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 11%, 16%, and 15% respectively [9][10]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.63 billion RMB, 2.15 billion RMB, and 2.64 billion RMB, with growth rates of 25%, 32%, and 23% respectively [9][10].

2025 年 03 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 [Table_Title] 中国大陆补贴与关税急单推升台厂景气， 存储涨势未歇 ——台股电子 2025 年 2 月报 《台股电子 2025 年 1 月报：AI 驱动的高速成长或 将持续，中国大陆补贴助攻部分台厂淡季不淡（推 荐）*陈梦竹》——2025-2-24 《台股电子 2024 年 12 月报：AI 仍是 2025 年台股 电子成长关键词（推荐）*陈梦竹》——2025-1-22 《台股电子月报：续乘 AI 之风，高歌向明天（推 荐）*陈梦竹》——2024-12-20 最近一年走势 《台股电子月报：AI 相关需求持续畅旺（推荐）* 海外*陈梦竹》——2024-11-19 相关报告 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 qiuyx@ghzq.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 中国台湾电 子指数 沪深 300 1.8% 1.6% 12.1% -9.5% -7.1 ...

[Table_Title] 晨会纪要 2025 年 03 月 20 日 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 45 期 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、基本面阶段性探底，等待供需回暖--行业动态研究 分析师：陈晨 S0350522110007 联系人：张益 S0350124100016 事件： 2025 年 3 月 17 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-2 月能源生产情况： 煤炭：原煤生产增速加快。1-2 月份，规上工业原煤产量 7.7 亿吨，同比增长 7.7%，增速比上年 12 月份加快 3.5pct；日均产量 1297 万吨。 电力：规上工业电力生产略有下降。1-2 月份，规上工业发电量 14921 亿千瓦时，同比下降 1.3%；日均发电 252.9 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.4%。分品种看，1-2 月份，规上工业风电增速加快，水电、核电、太阳能发电同 比增速放缓，火电降幅扩大。其中，规上工业火电发电量同比下降 5.8%，降幅比上年 12 月份扩大 3.2pct； 规上工业水电增长 4.5%，增速放缓 1.0pct；规上 ...