2025 年 03 月 27 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 50 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 财政支出前置促经济回升--宏观点评 商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫星星座建设加速--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、财政支出前置促经济回升--宏观点评 分析师：夏磊 S0350521090004 事件： 3 月 24 日，财政部公布今年前两个月的财政收支数据：1-2 月，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比下 降 1.6%；全国一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比增长 3.4%；全国政府性基金预算收入 6381 亿元，同比 下降 10.7%；全国政府性基金预算支出 11358 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。 投资要点： 财政收入总体平稳，主力税种收入有所上升 总体上，1-2 月全国一般公共预算收入同比小幅下降 1.6%，收入进度为 19.9%，略低于过去五年同期平均水 平；政府性基金预算收入同比下降 10.7%，收入进度为 10.2 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first two months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[3] - National general public budget expenditure reached 45,096 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[3] - Government fund budget revenue fell to 6,381 billion CNY, down 10.7% year-on-year, while expenditure was 11,358 billion CNY, up 1.2%[3] Tax Revenue Insights - Among the four major tax categories, three showed positive growth: domestic VAT increased by 1.1%, domestic consumption tax by 0.3%, and personal income tax surged by 26.7%[4] - Corporate income tax saw a decline of 10.4%, primarily due to reduced tax payments from certain central financial enterprises[4] - Export tax rebates increased by 16.9%, influenced by potential trade protectionism[4] Fiscal Policy and Spending - The expenditure growth rate of 3.4% significantly outpaced the revenue growth rate, with expenditure progress at 15.2%, exceeding the five-year average by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The government plans to enhance fiscal policies, focusing on consumption and technology innovation, with a budget of 3,000 billion CNY for consumer subsidies, doubling from the previous year[7][8] Support for Key Sectors - Fiscal spending on science and technology reached 11,505 billion CNY last year, growing by 5.7%, and increased by 10.6% in the first two months of 2025[8] - Social security, education, and health-related expenditures rose by 5.4%, outpacing general public fiscal spending growth[8] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, global economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in policy and trade relations[8]

[Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 49 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024 年经营稳健，看好新业态推进--安踏体育/服装家纺(02020/213502) 点评报告（港股美股） 用户数高增，市场份额有望持续提升--途虎-W/汽车服务(09690/212803) 点评报告（港股美股） 鹏鼎控股(002938.SZ)深度报告：AI 端侧浪潮开启在即，PCB 龙头显著受益--鹏鼎控股/元件(002938/212702) 公司 PPT 报告 成本持续优化，出栏高速增长--巨星农牧/养殖业(603477/211107) 公司点评 哪些涨价细分领域可以重点关注--策略 PPT 超长债性价比究竟如何--债券研究周报 业绩增速亮眼，结构持续优化--金徽酒/白酒Ⅱ(603919/213405) 公司点评 盈利能力大幅提升，产品加速下沉&出海--布鲁可/文娱用品(00325/213605) 点评报告（港股美股） 大单品持续放量，电商渠道加速弯道超车--百亚股份/个护用品(003006/217701) 公司点评 腾势 N9、二代哈弗枭龙 MAX 上市，马斯克召开特斯拉全员大会--行业周报 2024 年业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high gross margin of 47.0% in Q4 2024, driven by its IP strategy and strong performance in the overseas direct sales market [6][7] - Total revenue for 2024 reached 169.9 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% in Q4 [6][10] - The company expects revenue growth in the second half of 2025 to outpace the first half, despite a slight decrease in the number of new store openings compared to 2024 [6][10] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 7.9 billion RMB, a 20.0% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.8% [6][7] - The company’s total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with significant growth in overseas locations [7][10] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was 12.3 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, revenue from the Miniso brand was 44.3 billion RMB, up 21.3% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 42.7% [7] - The TOPTOY brand contributed 2.8 billion RMB in revenue, marking a 50.3% increase year-on-year [7] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 208 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [10][11] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 32 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 19% increase [10][11] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in gross margin, supported by the rising contribution from overseas and IP sales [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion yuan [7][9] - The company continues to leverage its phosphate resource advantages, with a focus on cost control and stable supply of raw materials [9][15] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 64 billion, 65 billion, and 65.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.48 billion, 5.76 billion, and 6.05 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [18][64] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.00%, but a net profit of 909 million yuan, up 11.15% year-on-year [8][13] - The average sales price for phosphate fertilizer was 3,388 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.28% year-on-year, while urea prices fell by 12.02% to 2,043 yuan/ton [9][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 26.21%, a slight increase from the previous year [7][12] Segment Analysis - The phosphate fertilizer segment generated revenue of 15.73 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 37.93%, while urea revenue was 5.63 billion yuan with a gross margin of 23.01% [10][12] - The company’s operational efficiency is highlighted by a decrease in financial expenses due to reduced interest-bearing debt, leading to a net cash flow from operating activities of 10.75 billion yuan, up 13.93% year-on-year [12][18] Resource and Development - The company holds phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons, with an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, ensuring self-sufficiency [15][16] - The company has successfully obtained exploration rights for the Zhenxiong phosphate mine, enhancing its resource security [15][16] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 2.55 billion yuan, which is 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.254 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 288 million yuan, up 20.74% year-on-year [6][10] - The company continues to focus on its established development strategy, enhancing brand strength, optimizing product structure, and expanding its market presence through e-commerce and emerging channels [7][10] - The company has seen significant growth in its e-commerce channel, with online sales reaching 1.525 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 103.8% [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.254 billion yuan, with a net profit of 288 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 254 million yuan [6][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.10%, but a decline in net profit by 12.00% [6][10] Growth Drivers - The company's flagship product line, "Free Point," generated 3.036 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 60.6% increase year-on-year [7] - The health product series, particularly the probiotic range, has shown even faster growth [7] - The company is deepening its market presence in five core provinces while expanding into new regions, with significant revenue growth in peripheral provinces [7] E-commerce and Brand Development - The company is investing heavily in brand building and marketing, with sales expenses increasing by 83.2% to 1.226 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - Research and development expenses reached 72 million yuan, with 15 new patents filed [7] - The company launched new products in the probiotic series, enhancing its product offerings and market competitiveness [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.309 billion yuan, 5.358 billion yuan, and 6.459 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 375 million yuan, 474 million yuan, and 571 million yuan [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 24% in 2025, increasing to 31% by 2027 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of sales prosperity, event catalysis, and industry trend resonance, with continued optimism for investment opportunities in the automotive sector [8][18] - The 2024 vehicle trade-in policy has boosted passenger vehicle sales beyond expectations, and the continuation of this policy in 2025 is expected to support upward consumer spending on automobiles [8][18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Tengshi N9 SUV was launched on March 21, with a starting price of 389,800 yuan, featuring advanced specifications such as a power output of nearly 1,000 horsepower and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.9 seconds [5][15] - The second-generation Haval Xiaolong MAX began pre-sales on March 21, with a starting price of 138,800 yuan, showcasing a comprehensive power system and intelligent driving features [6][16] - Elon Musk held a Tesla all-hands meeting on March 20, discussing innovations in production lines and plans for mass production of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots [7][17] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of March 17-21, with the automotive index declining by 0.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite's decline of 1.6% [20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the penetration rate of advanced driving assistance systems, benefiting leading automakers and related component manufacturers [9][19] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Domestic automakers entering a new phase of high-end development, with companies like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors expected to benefit [19] 2. The "affordability" of advanced driving technology is anticipated to significantly increase its market penetration, with recommendations for companies like XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [19] 3. The potential for mass production of robots, with recommendations for leading companies in the industry chain such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [19] 4. Favorable conditions for high-quality auto parts manufacturers amid a complex export environment, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Yinlun [19] 5. Recovery in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly for heavy trucks, with recommendations for leading companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Yutong Bus [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10] Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with adjusted net profit increasing by 702.1% year-on-year [4] - The company reported a revenue of 2.24 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 155.6% [3][4] - The company is expanding its product offerings across all age groups and is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets [5] - The company has established a strong presence in overseas markets, with overseas sales revenue growing by 518.1% [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 52.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 26.1%, up by 17.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects revenues of 3.89 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of 972 million RMB [9] Product and Market Strategy - The company has launched 682 SKUs covering various age groups, with a focus on popular IPs such as Ultraman and Transformers [5] - The revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards role-playing toys [5] - The company has introduced a 9.9 RMB Transformers SKU to expand its price range and target lower-tier markets [5] Sales Channels - Online sales accounted for 6.95% of total revenue, while offline sales made up 93.04%, showing a strong reliance on traditional retail channels [6][7] - The company has seen a significant increase in revenue from distribution sales, which reached 20.63 billion RMB, up by 181.5% year-on-year [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 5.17 billion RMB by 2026, with an adjusted net profit of 1.29 billion RMB [9][10] - The expected return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 101% in 2025, indicating strong profitability potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue growth of 18.59% year-on-year, reaching 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 388 million yuan, also up 18.03% year-on-year [4][5] - The product structure continues to optimize, with over 70% of revenue coming from products priced above 100 yuan, reflecting a shift towards higher-end offerings [5][6] - The company is actively expanding its market presence, particularly in the Gansu province and surrounding areas, with revenue from Gansu reaching 2.231 billion yuan, up 16.14% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 693 million yuan, a significant increase of 31.11% year-on-year, although net profit slightly decreased by 2.05% [4][5] - The sales gross margin was recorded at 60.92%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of other businesses [5][6] Product and Market Development - The company’s product lines, particularly those priced above 300 yuan, saw a revenue increase of 41.17%, indicating strong demand for premium products [5] - The company is focusing on market integration in Gansu and Qinghai, as well as expanding into the Shaanxi and Ningxia markets, which is expected to enhance market share [5] Future Projections - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.280 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2025, representing growth rates of 8.90% and 5.15% respectively [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.45 for 2024 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in user numbers and market share, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million by the end of 2024, and a substantial increase in monthly active users and annual transaction users [5][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, up 29.7% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 6,874 service centers by the end of 2024, adding 965 new stores during the year [7][8]. - The management has demonstrated confidence in the company's future by repurchasing shares, acquiring 23,571,300 shares, which is 2.9% of the total issued share capital as of March 20, 2025 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.14%, 10.41%, and 9.63% [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, with a gross margin of 25.4% [5][9]. - The projected financials for 2025E-2027E include revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 765 million RMB, 1.075 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB respectively [8][9]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has established itself as the leader in the Chinese automotive service market, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million and significant growth in active users [7][8]. - The company has effectively utilized platforms like Douyin to enhance user engagement, resulting in over 100% growth in new users for tire maintenance services [7]. Store Expansion and Marketing Investment - The company has expanded its store network to 6,874 locations, with a significant investment of nearly 100 million RMB in supporting both new and existing stores [7][8]. - Marketing expenses for online and offline promotions totaled 1.04 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 250 million RMB from the previous year [7].