Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2][14]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a combination of policy support and improving demand, leading to a sustained decrease in aluminum ingot inventory. However, attention should be paid to potential fluctuations in future demand [14]. - The supply of bauxite remains tight, influenced by seasonal weather conditions in Guinea, which is driving up domestic and international alumina prices. Companies with integrated operations are expected to benefit significantly [14]. - Long-term, the aluminum industry is projected to maintain high profitability due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand increases [14]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Current price 12.27, 2024E EPS 2.12, 2025E EPS 2.25, PE 5.8, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Current price 8.15, 2024E EPS 0.91, 2025E EPS 0.97, PE 9.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Current price 8.55, 2024E EPS 0.77, 2025E EPS 0.86, PE 10.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Current price 18.42, 2024E EPS 2.16, 2025E EPS 2.56, PE 7.2, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Current price 14.42, 2024E EPS 1.41, 2025E EPS 1.59, PE 9.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a performance of 21.1% over the last month, 3.3% over three months, and 9.2% over twelve months, compared to the CSI 300's performance of 23.8%, 11.5%, and 8.7% respectively [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with average production costs rising to approximately 18,734 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 658 RMB/ton. The average profit for the industry is around 2,026 RMB/ton, down by 408 RMB/ton from the previous week [10]. - The demand from downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, but there are signs of declining new orders as existing orders are consumed [10]. - The social inventory of aluminum rods has decreased by 0.84 million tons week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [10]. Price Trends - As of October 18, the average price of alumina is 4,607 RMB/ton, up by 366 RMB/ton week-on-week, and up 54.3% year-on-year [31]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 20,640 RMB/ton, down 185 RMB/ton week-on-week, but up 9.9% year-on-year [22]. Production Data - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 836,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [48]. - The weekly production of alumina is reported at 1,641,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.42% and a net profit increase of 73.72% [3] - The company's Moroccan factory has successfully launched its first batch of tires, enhancing its production capabilities and meeting strong market demand [8] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 90.71 billion, 115.01 billion, and 130.13 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [21] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total market capitalization is 26,127.16 million [1] - Total share capital is 102,943.88 thousand shares [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 63.40 billion, a net profit of 17.26 billion, and a gross profit margin of 35.45% [3] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 22.30 billion, with a net profit of 6.48 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.48% [3][5] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 8.27 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [3][20] Production and Sales - The company produced 2,424.31 million tires in the first three quarters of 2024, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, with sales reaching 2,335.81 million tires, up 7.88% [4] - In Q3 2024, tire production was 815.65 million, and sales were 826.10 million, indicating a strong performance in both production and sales [4][10] Industry Outlook - The tire industry remains robust, with the company experiencing a continuous increase in production and sales volume [4] - The company is actively expanding its market presence in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in high-growth regions [4][8] Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 24.05 billion, 27.05 billion, and 34.34 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 8 [21]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the smart automotive industry, including Juguang Technology, Yongxin Optical, and Huace Navigation, while suggesting a "Hold" rating for Jingwei Hengrun [7]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology has secured exclusive positioning for the next-generation laser radar platform of Leap Motor, with the first model expected to be mass-produced in 2025. This partnership signifies a deepening collaboration aimed at accelerating the internationalization of laser radar technology [3][10]. - The smart cockpit supplier rankings for January to August 2024 show Desay SV leading the market with over 510,000 units and a market share of 15.2%, while domestic suppliers are gaining traction across various segments [17][21]. - The A-share market has shown strong performance in sectors such as computer, electronics, and defense, with notable stock increases in companies like Top Cloud Agriculture and Shangda Shares [23][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Developments - Hesai Technology's exclusive agreement with Leap Motor for the next-generation vehicle platform laser radar is a significant milestone, with the first model set for 2025 production [3][10]. - The Leap B10 model, positioned as a compact SUV, will focus on the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan market segment, with plans for international sales expansion [11]. 2. Market Performance Review - From October 14 to October 18, 2024, the A-share market saw significant gains in the computer and electronics sectors, with increases of 10.29% and 9.65% respectively [23]. - The North Exchange 50 index had a PE TTM of 42.95X as of October 18, 2024, with a trading volume of 15.63 billion shares [33]. 3. Supplier Rankings - In the smart cockpit sector, Desay SV leads with a market share of 15.2%, followed by competitors like Hon Hai/Quanta and Qualcomm, which dominate the cockpit domain controller chip market with a 66.7% share [17][19]. - The HUD supplier market is also seeing rapid growth, with Huayang Multimedia leading with over 400,000 units and a market share of 21.3% [19][21].

7噢i'噢o'o噢'o噢'o'哦o'o哦'o哦'o'哦o 噢哦噢哦噢咯噢【噢；噢7//噢/ 噢 2024 年 10 月 21 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 胡国鹏 S0350521080003 hugp@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁稻雨 S0350521080002 yuandy@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 当前牛市第二阶段像哪次 ——策略周报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 1、按市场整固的时间和空间，牛市第二阶段可以分为两种形态，一种类 似于 1999 和 2019 年，调整期长；另一种类似于 2008 和 2015 年，市 场很快开启主升浪。 2、调整期长的牛市第二阶段，体现为基本面修复偏慢、政策宽松节奏较 缓，并且存在较长期的压制风险偏好的事件，时间在半年左右，指数高 点调整幅度在 10%以上。 相关报告 《策略周报：牛市第二阶段如何布局*胡国鹏，袁 稻雨》——2024-10-13 《 四季度策略：事情正在起变化*胡国鹏，袁稻雨》 ——2024-10-07 《策略点评：四箭齐发，积极看多*胡国鹏，袁稻 雨》——2024-09-24 《策略周报：美联储降息如何影响海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1] Core Views - JD Group is expected to see a revenue recovery driven by the "trade-in" policy, with a projected total revenue of 261.3 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - The report highlights that JD's retail revenue is anticipated to grow by 5.2% year-on-year to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, benefiting from recent government stimulus policies and a recovery in consumer spending [4] - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin improvement to 4.5% [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for JD Group is forecasted to reach 1,139.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5% [6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 36.5 billion yuan, indicating a 51% growth compared to the previous year [6] - The report projects a diluted EPS of 11.69 yuan for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17% [6][7] Retail Performance - JD Retail's revenue is expected to recover, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, driven by the trade-in policy and a healthy growth in daily necessities [4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for JD Retail is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year [4] - The report notes that the 1P (first-party) revenue from electronic products is expected to grow by 2.2% to 121.9 billion yuan, while daily necessities are projected to grow by 8.4% to 82.4 billion yuan [4] Market Performance - JD Group has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with a 12-month performance of 58.8% compared to the index's 17.3% [3] - The current market capitalization of JD Group is approximately 464.97 billion HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][15] Core Views - The company achieved its best Q3 performance in history, with expectations for volume and profit growth in compound fertilizers [1][4] - The increase in the price differential of monoammonium phosphate contributed to profit growth in Q3 2024 [4][6] - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 160 billion, 170 billion, and 179 billion respectively [6][15] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.34% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 375 million yuan, up 24.88% year-on-year but down 4.69% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 16.19%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Price and Market Data - As of October 18, 2024, the company's stock price was 13.06 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.20 to 14.80 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is approximately 16.39 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased production capacity in phosphate mining, enhancing its integrated advantages [6][15] - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in compound fertilizer prices in Q4 2024, with an average price of 2387 yuan per ton, down 10.56% year-on-year [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is expected to remain in a tight balance for the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and strong profitability among listed companies [1] - The report highlights the importance of winter stockpiling and macroeconomic expectations in influencing coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [1][7] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued coal sector stocks, with specific recommendations for both thermal and coking coal companies [1] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price at 840 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [8] - The production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region has increased by 0.17 percentage points, reaching 89.59% [11] - Despite weak demand from non-electric sectors, power plants maintain rigid procurement, leading to a stable production environment [7] 2. Coking Coal - The coking coal market has cooled slightly, with prices decreasing; for instance, the main coking coal price at Jing Tang port fell to 1910 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton week-on-week [27] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqingmaodou port has increased, indicating a potential rise in supply [31] - Coking coal inventories at independent coking plants have risen slightly, reflecting a stable supply-demand balance [34] 3. Coke - The coke industry continues to see profitability improvements, with average profit per ton of coke rising to approximately 51 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [38] - Domestic coke prices have increased, with Tianjin port's first-grade metallurgical coke price at 1950 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton week-on-week [38] - The report notes a slight increase in production rates among coking plants, driven by improved demand from steel production [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 37.97% in Q3 2024, reaching 605 million yuan, driven by increased sales from its core customer, Chery Automobile, which saw a 30.82% year-on-year increase in sales [3][4] - The company has a strong order backlog in its automotive manufacturing equipment business, with orders amounting to 3.93 billion yuan as of June 2024, indicating a robust revenue outlook [4] - The company is expanding its lightweight automotive parts business, with significant production and sales growth expected from new models launched in collaboration with Chery [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.61%, with a net profit margin of 17.21% [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 24.54%, showing a slight decline year-on-year due to increased depreciation and amortization costs from transitioning construction projects to fixed assets [4] - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, with a decrease in various expense ratios, particularly in financial expenses due to the redemption of convertible bonds earlier in the year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.889 billion yuan, 3.625 billion yuan, and 4.296 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 25%, and 19% [6][7] - The expected net profits for the same years are 349 million yuan, 437 million yuan, and 556 million yuan, with growth rates of 73%, 25%, and 27% [6][7] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.67 yuan, 2.09 yuan, and 2.65 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 15, and 12 times [6][7]

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 2024 年 10 月 21 日 \n 余春生 S0350513090001 \nyucs@ghzq.com.cn | 晨会纪要 \n晨会纪要 [Table_Title] \n—— 2024 年第 178 期 | | | 观点精粹 : | | | | 最新报告摘要 | | | | 首批中证 A500ETF 上市，新一代大盘宽基"新"在哪里 -- | 金工深度研究报告 | | | 政策组合拳+成交额修复，金融 IT | 或迎景气提升——计算机行业专题报告 -- 行业 PPT 报告 | | | 英伟达将推出 B300，Q3 服务器行业景气持续向上 | ——AI 算力月度跟踪（ 202410 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing an increase in raw coal production and imports, with September's output reaching 410 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [4][12] - The average daily production of raw coal in September was 13.82 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons per day compared to the previous month [4][12] - The overall supply growth of coal is estimated at 1.6% for the first nine months of 2024, considering a 0.6% increase in domestic production and an 11.9% increase in imports [18] Summary by Sections Supply - In September, the production of raw coal increased, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [4][12] - The total raw coal production from January to September was 3.48 billion tons, reflecting a 0.6% year-on-year increase [12][18] Demand - The industrial electricity production accelerated, with September's generation reaching 802.4 billion kWh, a 6.0% year-on-year increase [5][12] - The growth rate of thermal power generation in September was 8.9%, up 5.2 percentage points from August [5][21] - The steel sector saw a decline in coke production, with September's output at 39.32 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [25] Inventory - In September, the inventory of thermal coal at production enterprises decreased by 127,000 tons, while the inventory at northern ports increased by 177,000 tons [7][34] - The overall inventory situation indicates a trend of destocking in the thermal coal market [34] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong investment potential, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Shenhua Energy [8][9] - The focus is on companies with high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the coal sector [8][9]