日均成交额（百万） 1,271.66 2024 年 10 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024Q3 业绩符合预期，单季收入创历史新高 ——福耀玻璃（600660）2023 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 福耀玻璃 2024 年 10 月 17 日发布 2024 年三季报：公司 2024Q3 实现营 收 99.74 亿元，同比+13.41%；实现归母净利润 19.80 亿元，同比 +53.54%；实现扣非后归母净利润 19.74 亿元，同比+55.56%。 投资要点: 收入端：24Q3 收入创新高，显著优于行业增速。2024 年 Q3，公司 实现营收 99.74 亿元，同比+13.41%，环比+4.94%，创历史新高， 我们认为主要系公司产品量价齐升，高附加值产品占比及整体 ASP 提升。2024Q3，国内汽车产量同比-3.2%，全球汽车产量同环比下 滑，公司收入表现显著优于行业增速。 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/18 表现 1M 3M 12M 福耀玻璃 13 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for the luxury goods sector, particularly for LVMH in the Chinese market, suggesting a cautious outlook for investments in this industry [4][5]. Core Insights - LVMH's Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year to €19.076 billion, falling short of market expectations of €20.05 billion [5]. - The Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, saw a significant revenue decline of 16%, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer confidence [5]. - The report emphasizes that while Western consumer demand is gradually improving, it remains slow due to inflation and high interest rates [5]. - The luxury goods market in China is under pressure, but LVMH management remains optimistic about the long-term recovery potential driven by the rising middle class [5]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with per capita disposable income increasing by 4.9% [2]. - Retail sales in China totaled ¥353.564 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [2]. Event Updates - LVMH's Q3 performance showed varied results across regions, with Europe up by 2% and the U.S. remaining flat, while Japan grew by 20% [5]. - The wine and spirits segment reported a 7% decline in revenue, attributed to lower champagne production [5]. - The fashion and leather goods segment also faced a 5% revenue drop, primarily due to decreased sales and currency effects [5]. Stock Performance - The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index increased by 1.22%, while the Hang Seng Consumer index decreased by 5.06% [6]. - Notable stock movements included significant gains for companies like 高鑫零售 (+25.14%) and 泡泡玛特 (+9.79%), while 九毛九 saw a decline of 16.99% [6]. Important Announcements - 泉峰控股 announced a substantial profit increase, projecting a net profit of approximately $100 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2024, compared to $23 million in the same period last year [8]. - LVMH's DFS division announced the departure of its CEO, with Ed Brennan stepping in as interim CEO [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1] Core Views - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to enter a phase of accelerated growth [3][4] - The semiconductor market is projected to grow by 15-20% this year, reaching a market size of $600 billion, driven by demand from AI and big data [4][16] - The new materials industry is catalyzed by downstream application sectors, gradually entering a prosperous cycle [9] Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - The Hong Kong government plans to establish a HKD 10 billion "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" to attract investments in strategic emerging industries, including semiconductors and advanced materials [16] - The global semiconductor market is expected to recover, with significant investments in equipment and infrastructure projected to reach a record $400 billion from 2025 to 2027 [4][16] 1.2 Aerospace Sector - Focus on materials such as PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fiber [6] 1.3 New Energy Sector - In September 2024, solar power generation reached 32.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while photovoltaic cell production increased by 8.2% [7] 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - Research on converting methanol into chemicals is advancing, with a new strain of E. coli developed to utilize methanol more efficiently [8] 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is seeking public opinion on enhancing ecological protection for wind and solar power projects [9] 2. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from the growth of downstream application sectors, maintaining a "Recommended" rating for investment [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1]. Core Views - The global chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out phase, with European chemical production costs being the highest globally. Due to rising costs and aging equipment, there are signs of accelerated capacity exit in Europe. Meanwhile, domestic capacity additions are reaching a peak, and future capital expenditures are expected to decline [2]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to continue recovering, supported by fiscal policies aimed at promoting high-quality economic development. Key measures include increasing debt limits to support local debt resolution, issuing special government bonds to bolster core capital for state-owned banks, and enhancing support for key groups [2]. - Chinese leading companies have solidified their cost and efficiency advantages and are in a phase of market share expansion, which is expected to drive performance positively. The report highlights four major investment opportunities in the chemical sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Tracking of Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking leading companies in various sub-sectors, including low-cost expansion and sectors benefiting from rising demand [3][4]. 2. Market Observation - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a long-term upward trend in demand, particularly in sectors such as tires, refrigerants, and polyester filament [3]. 3. Data Tracking - Recent price movements include an increase in the price of methyl methacrylate (MMA) to 12,250 CNY/ton (+5.15% week-on-week) and butanediol (BDO) to 7,500 CNY/ton (+4.17% week-on-week) [6][8]. 4. Key Stocks to Watch - The report lists several companies with strong performance indicators, including Wanhua Chemical, Linglong Tire, and others, highlighting their recent financial results and stock performance [9][12]. 5. Investment Discussion - The report suggests that the long-term growth potential of the chemical industry justifies a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as attractive investment opportunities [4][15].

2024 年 10 月 19 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 业绩倍数增长，存货+预付款展现成长信心 ——海光信息（688041）科创板公司动态研究 事件: 最近一年走势 10 月 15 日，公司发布 2024 年三季度报告：2024Q1-Q3，公司实现营 业收入 61.37 亿元，同比增长 55.64%；实现归母净利润 15.26 亿元，同 比增长 69.22%；实现扣非净利润 14.75 亿元，同比增长 76.87%。 2024Q3，公司收入 23.74 亿元，同比增长 78.33%；归母净利润 6.72 亿 元，同比增长 199.90%；扣非净利润 6.57 亿元，同比增长 205.85%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/18 产品竞争力市场领先，盈利能力持续提升 表现 1M 3M 12M 公司表示，始终围绕通用计算市场，持续加大技术研发投入，产品 海光信息 78.0% 76.5% 139.9% 竞争力保持市场领先，市场需求不断增加，带动公司营业收入 ...

当前价格（元） 78.22 日均成交额（百万） 2,382.54 2024 年 10 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 聚合 MDI 价格上涨，烟台产业园 PDH 装置复产 ——万华化学（600309）9 月月报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 化工行业未来的竞争优势在于"工程师红利"，万华化学是国内少有的 以技术创新驱动公司发展的典型。公司以优良文化为基础，通过技术创 新和卓越运营打造出高技术和低成本两大护城河。万华化学正以周期成 长股的步伐向全球化工巨头之列进军。 短期看，影响万华化学基本面的是产品的景气度，从表征指标来看，价 差是影响短期利润最核心的因素。万华化学的产品体系日益庞大，为更 好地表示公司景气的程度，我们将万华化学的产品体系作为一个整体， 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/18 按照现 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Views - NVIDIA's Blackwell series, expected to launch in Q4 2024, is anticipated to enhance the value of four markets: server racks, copper cables, liquid cooling, and HBM [4] - The GB200, part of the Blackwell series, offers significantly higher computational power than the H100, with a 5x increase in AI performance (20 petaFLOPS FP4) [4] - Major CSPs like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are increasing their capital expenditures for 2024, with Meta raising its forecast to $37-40 billion [4] - The transition from HGX to MGX server designs in the GB200 NVL72 is expected to boost the value of rack integration, HBM, copper connections, and liquid cooling by 2-10x [4] Server and Component Analysis - The GB200 NVL72 server system, featuring 18 compute trays and 9 switch trays, is designed for high-performance AI workloads, with each compute tray containing 2 Grace CPUs and 4 B200 GPUs [38][40] - The GB200 NVL72 offers 4x faster training performance and 30x faster inference performance compared to the H100, thanks to its second-generation Transformer engine and fifth-generation NVLink [40] - The server system uses NVLink copper cables for internal communication, with over 5,000 NVLink cables in the GB200 NVL72, totaling more than 2 miles in length [61] Copper Connections - The DAC (Direct Attach Copper) market is expected to grow rapidly, with NVIDIA deploying DACs extensively in its AI clusters to minimize power consumption [57] - The global high-speed cable market is projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2028, with DACs maintaining strong growth due to their low power consumption and high-speed capabilities [57] - Amphenol leads the global DAC market with a significant share, while domestic Chinese manufacturers like Luxshare Precision and Zhaolong Interconnect have lower global market shares [59] HBM Market - HBM3E is set to begin mass production in the second half of 2024, with HBM4 expected to launch in 2026 [67][69] - NVIDIA is the largest buyer of HBM, with its H100 and H200 GPUs driving demand for HBM3 and HBM3E, respectively [75] - By the end of 2024, the total DRAM industry's HBM TSV capacity is expected to reach 250K/month, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading in HBM production capacity [71][73] Liquid Cooling - The GB200 NVL72 adopts cold plate liquid cooling, which is more mature and cost-effective compared to immersion cooling, with a PUE of 1.1-1.2 [83][85] - Major manufacturers like Foxconn have developed liquid cooling solutions for the GB200 NVL72, featuring hybrid air-liquid cooling systems [86][87] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI chips, server components (including HBM, copper connections, and liquid cooling), and data center infrastructure as key beneficiaries of the AI compute demand surge [90][91] - Key companies in the AI chip sector include NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel, while server manufacturers like Foxconn, Wistron, and Quanta are highlighted for their role in the GB200 supply chain [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a year-on-year increase of 25%, with revenue reaching 9.553 billion yuan, up 25.26% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 490 million yuan, up 21.68% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.561 billion yuan, up 14.90% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 179 million yuan, up 19.88% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 slightly decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 10.80%, while the operating expense ratio increased by 0.44 percentage points YoY to 4.35% [2] - The company's non-GAAP net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 4.53%, up 0.10 percentage points YoY [2] Business Performance and Growth - The company's strong performance in Q3 2024 was driven by high demand in the freight forwarding sector, with the CCFI index increasing by 127.32% YoY and 38.34% QoQ [4] - The company has expanded its global presence through acquisitions and new subsidiaries in regions such as Southeast Asia and North America [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 12.493 billion yuan in 2024, 13.890 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.275 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to reach 644 million yuan, 740 million yuan, and 814 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 11% in 2023 to 14% in 2024-2026 [10] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20.28 in 2023 to 14.76 in 2024, 12.86 in 2025, and 11.68 in 2026 [10] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2.17 in 2023 to 2.10 in 2024, 1.86 in 2025, and 1.65 in 2026 [10] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 18, 2024, was 58.72 yuan, with a 52-week range of 34.82-72.95 yuan [2] - The company's total market capitalization was 9.50953 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 9.50032 billion yuan [2] - The company's average daily trading volume was 161.74 million yuan, with a monthly turnover rate of 1.67% [2]

Policy Changes - The real estate policy has shifted to focus on stabilizing the market, addressing four key issues: destocking, stabilizing housing prices, resolving issues with troubled real estate companies, and addressing housing difficulties for vulnerable groups[1] - The recent announcement on October 17 includes a plan for "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market[1] Housing Renovation Initiatives - A new initiative will provide 1 million units for monetary resettlement in urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing, signaling a restart of the "monetary resettlement" policy[2] - The previous renovation efforts from 2015 to 2018 saw annual starts of approximately 601,000 to 626,000 units, with monetary resettlement ratios of 29.9% to 48.5%[2] Financial Support Mechanisms - Funding for these initiatives will come from three main sources: special loans from institutions, local government bonds, and commercial bank loans, along with tax incentives[3] - The "white list" of real estate projects has seen loan approvals reach 2.23 trillion yuan, expected to double to over 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024[4] Market Recovery Indicators - The average subscription volume in major cities during the National Day holiday exceeded the total for September, indicating a significant market rebound[5] - The second-hand housing price index in major cities has increased by 13% to 24% since mid-September, reflecting improved market expectations[7] Land Supply and Inventory Management - As of August 2024, the total land inventory reached 4.67 billion square meters, with a destocking cycle of 56.5 months, highlighting the need for effective land management strategies[6] - Special bonds will be utilized to revitalize existing land and alleviate liquidity pressures on local government financing vehicles and real estate companies[6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 11.45 billion yuan, a 22.0% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.081 billion yuan, a 34.9% year-on-year increase [3] - The large-displacement motorcycle market and export market remain highly prosperous, with sales of motorcycles above 250cc increasing by 39.82% year-on-year and motorcycle exports growing by 27.19% year-on-year [3] - The company's expense ratios decreased, with sales/management/R&D expense ratios dropping by 2.9/0.3/0.3 percentage points respectively, totaling a 3.5 percentage point reduction [3] - The company released a stock option incentive plan and an employee stock ownership plan, with performance targets set for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026E is forecasted to be 14.485/17.169/20.458 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.61%/18.53%/19.16% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026E is projected to be 1.344/1.683/2.069 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.41%/25.21%/22.94% [3] - EPS for 2024-2026E is expected to be 8.88/11.11/13.66 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.50/13.98/11.37X [3] Industry Analysis - The motorcycle industry saw a 11.31% year-on-year increase in sales of fuel motorcycles, with 12.2711 million units sold in the first nine months of 2024 [3] - The export market for motorcycles remained strong, with 8.115 million units exported in the first nine months of 2024, a 27.19% year-on-year increase [3] Company Valuation - The company's current price is 155.38 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 78.47-180.14 yuan [3] - The company's market capitalization is 23.52948 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 151.4319 million shares [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 20%/23%/24%/24% for 2023A/2024E/2025E/2026E [6] - The company's P/E ratios are forecasted to be 15.26/17.50/13.98/11.37X for 2023A/2024E/2025E/2026E [6]