52 周价格区间（元） 6.15-12.66 流通市值（百万） 16,337.90 2024 年 11 月 05 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 史亚州 S0350124060026 shiyz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张晋铭 S0350124040003 zhangjm02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 单票盈利持续修复，看好业绩弹性 ——申通快递（002468）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 10 月 31 日，申通快递公告 2024 年三季报 经营方面，2024Q1-Q3，申通快递实现营业收入 334.91 亿元，同比增长 14.16%；完成归母净利润 6.52 亿元，同比增长 195.18%；完成扣非归 母净利润 6.39 亿元，同比增长 204.77%。其中 2024Q3，申通快递实现 营业收入 119.22 亿元，同比增长 16.31%；完成归母净利润 2.15 亿元， 上年同期为 0.03 亿元；完成扣非归母净利润 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.977 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.29%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.73% to 2.604 billion yuan [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.102 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.48%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32.37% to 1.244 billion yuan [2][3] - The passenger load factor has exceeded the same period in 2019, but revenue levels are under pressure due to lower yield per passenger kilometer [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in oil prices, which will significantly reduce operating costs in the future [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's operating costs were 4.535 billion yuan, an increase of 8.37% year-on-year, while the unit ASK cost slightly decreased by 1.2% [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 20.38%, a decrease of 9.90 percentage points year-on-year due to increased tax expenses and pressure on revenue levels [4] Market Data - As of November 4, 2024, the current stock price is 56.84 yuan, with a market capitalization of 55.621 billion yuan [3][4] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 47.72 to 67.62 yuan [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.807 billion yuan, 21.758 billion yuan, and 23.788 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.414 billion yuan, 3.225 billion yuan, and 3.854 billion yuan [7][8] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.04, 17.25, and 14.43 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook [7][8]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance growth and continues to strengthen its overseas marketing efforts [1] - The company's operations are stable, with effective cost control [2] - AI continues to enhance the efficiency of overseas marketing [2] - The company has formed an "AI+BI+CI" full-chain digital solution for overseas marketing, leading the new wave of brand globalization [2][3] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue reached 6.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.81% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024Q3 was 0.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.81% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024Q3 was 0.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.23% [1] - Net profit margin in 2024Q3 was 9.36%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59 percentage points [1] - The expense ratio for the period was 6.52%, with management expense ratio decreasing by 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [1] - 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 17.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.85% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024Q1-Q3 was 1.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024Q1-Q3 was 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.31% [2] Strategic Developments - The company has launched the "AIGC Leading the New Wave of Brand Globalization" strategy, forming an "AI+BI+CI" full-chain digital solution for overseas marketing [2][3] - The company has developed platforms such as KreadoAI, BI, and Gears, providing one-stop solutions for overseas enterprises from marketing material creation to data analysis and cloud infrastructure management [2] - As of 2024Q3, the company has served over 5,000 enterprises, including Transsion, WeTV, Cotti Coffee, and Shein, achieving global business growth [2] - In July 2024, the company partnered with Tencent Cloud to accelerate the digitalization of enterprises in the cloud computing, media, and entertainment sectors [2] - In September 2024, the digital advertising platform Yeahmobi joined the Amazon Advertising Partner Network, achieving full coverage of Amazon advertising resources [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown strong performance relative to the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month increase of 11.3%, a 3-month increase of 46.5%, and a 12-month increase of 6.5% [2] - The current stock price is 19.02 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 12.37-24.87 yuan [2] - The total market capitalization is 8,975.27 million yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 5,872.90 million yuan [2] - The average daily trading volume is 477.69 million yuan, with a recent one-month turnover rate of 13.50% [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 25.21/29.06/33.12 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 2.82/3.38/3.97 billion yuan [3][6] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 31.87/26.58/22.60X [3][6] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 6% in 2023 to 9% in 2026 [6][8] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 23% from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 10% in 2023 to 12% in 2026 [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company's total asset turnover ratio is expected to increase from 0.44 in 2023 to 0.54 in 2026 [8] - The accounts receivable turnover ratio is projected to increase from 2.55 in 2023 to 3.16 in 2026 [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise from 27% in 2023 to 33% in 2026 [8] - The current ratio is projected to decrease from 3.66 in 2023 to 2.91 in 2026 [8] - The quick ratio is expected to decrease from 3.62 in 2023 to 2.87 in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's toll revenue shows steady growth, while the wind power business is under short-term pressure [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.55% [2][3] - The company plans to raise up to 4.9 billion yuan through a private placement to fund major projects [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 5.86 billion yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.374 billion yuan, down 10.71% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.39% year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue from the company's expressway segment increased by 4.22% year-on-year to 1.379 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [3] Revenue Growth - The company’s toll revenue benefited from the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge, leading to a significant increase in traffic volume and revenue from related projects [3] - The organic waste treatment business within the environmental protection segment saw revenue growth of 23.69% year-on-year, while the wind power segment experienced a revenue decline of 18.86% due to increased abandonment rates and reduced wind resources [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 1.60 percentage points to 40.24% in Q3 2024, attributed to pressures in the clean energy sector [4] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was recorded at 28.54%, a year-on-year increase of 1.40 percentage points [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 8.596 billion yuan, 9.524 billion yuan, and 9.837 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.999 billion yuan, 2.208 billion yuan, and 2.317 billion yuan for the same years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's total profit showed steady growth in Q3 2024, with sufficient cash on hand [1] - The company is actively embracing technological innovation and building new smart business formats, which supports a positive outlook for its future performance [2] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 3.125 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.60%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.80% [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 233 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.09% [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 8.338 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.74%, with a gross profit of RMB 2.014 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36% [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 812 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.45% [1] Business Segments - Other businesses (including modern logistics) generated revenue of RMB 3.155 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26.43% [1] - Textbook business sales were RMB 947 million in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.77% [1] - General book and audiovisual publishing business sales were RMB 1.3 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% [1] Cash Position - As of Q3 2024, the company had RMB 10.782 billion in cash (including monetary funds and tradable financial assets), a year-on-year increase of 2.31% [1] - The company has RMB 1.28 billion in raised funds available for external investment [1] Forecast and Valuation - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 10.5 billion, RMB 11.0 billion, and RMB 11.6 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 805 million, RMB 932 million, and RMB 1.079 billion, respectively [2] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 18x, 15x, and 13x, respectively [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price was RMB 7.34 as of November 4, 2024, with a 52-week price range of RMB 5.17-8.76 [1] - The company's total market capitalization was RMB 14.371 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 14.371 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][9] Core Views - The company reported a steady increase in revenue, with general book sales significantly outperforming the market [3][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 9.366 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.72%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.56% [3][4] - The company has a strong cash position with 13.984 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents as of Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.37% [4] Revenue Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.366 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 4.132 billion yuan and a gross margin of 44.12%, an increase of 1.99 percentage points year-over-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company generated revenue of 2.473 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1.47%, but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 36.48% [4] Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2024 was 9.57 billion yuan, down 22.56% year-over-year, with a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 30.89% [3][4] - The effective tax rate for Q1-Q3 2024 was 25.74%, with a profit before tax of 1.392 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 5.50% [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a decline in net profit in 2024 due to adjustments in the main business tax rate, but the publishing and distribution business remains stable with an optimistic outlook for future performance [5] - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 14 billion, 14.8 billion, and 15.2 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.397 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.554 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 14 times [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][26]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reversing previous losses. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 19.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.07% [1][2][8]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the strong performance of the printer and integrated circuit segments, with the A3 printer production capacity steadily increasing [1][5][21]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for domestic printers and integrated circuits, particularly in the context of government policies favoring local production [5][21][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.91%. The net profit for the same period was 1.08 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1][2][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 32.82%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 6.78%, up by 6.09 percentage points [3][17]. Business Segments - **Printer Segment**: The company’s printer business, particularly the "Bentu" brand, generated 3.176 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.79% increase year-on-year. The net profit for this segment was 475 million yuan, up 35.67% [2][13]. - **Integrated Circuit Segment**: The revenue from the integrated circuit business was 1.038 billion yuan, with a net profit of 353 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 127.65% [2][15]. Market Outlook - The domestic printer market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing automation and the push for local production in various sectors such as government and education. The company has launched the first fully domestically developed A3 laser copier, capturing 75% of the market share [5][21][22]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 27.162 billion yuan, 30.389 billion yuan, and 33.715 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [26][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in paid memberships on the China Manufacturing Network, with a total of 26,668 paid members as of Q3 2024, an increase of 934 members since the end of H1 2024 [4] - The AI product, Mentarc, was officially launched in Q3 2024, aimed at providing e-commerce tools for global distributors and cross-border merchants [4] - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 reached 416 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 124 million yuan, up 14.88% year-over-year [5][6] Financial Performance - The company’s overall revenue growth is driven by the stable performance of the China Manufacturing Network and the commercialization of AI products [6] - The gross margin improved by 1.31 percentage points year-over-year, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.66 percentage points [6] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.713 billion yuan, 1.943 billion yuan, and 2.154 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 472 million yuan, 554 million yuan, and 653 million yuan [6][9] Earnings Forecast - The diluted EPS for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.75 yuan, and 2.06 yuan, respectively [6][9] - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 21.36 for 2024, decreasing to 15.44 by 2026 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in sales of culture media, with a strong momentum in overseas business. The revenue from culture media products increased by 59.15% year-on-year, while the CDMO business revenue decreased by 39.05% due to the impact of a challenging pharmaceutical environment [4]. - The company has expanded its customer base, with a total of 230 confirmed pilot projects utilizing its cell culture media products, an increase of 60 projects compared to the end of 2023 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 216 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.73%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.93% to 27 million yuan [3]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 alone was 72 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.23%, while the net profit for the same quarter was 3 million yuan, down 41.54% year-on-year [3]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 305 million yuan, 403 million yuan, and 519 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 49 million yuan, 93 million yuan, and 135 million yuan [5][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of +16.0% and a 3-month performance of +33.5%, while the CSI 300 index has shown a decline of -3.2% over the same period [2]. - The current stock price is 39.09 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 24.50 to 64.64 yuan [2]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the culture media sector, with a projected revenue growth rate of 25% in 2024, followed by 32% in 2025 and 29% in 2026 [5][6]. - The company’s focus on expanding its product lines and customer base positions it well for future growth despite current challenges in the CDMO segment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3, but the long-term value is expected to be reassessed positively [1] - The overall market and passenger flow remain strong, with expectations for continued growth in Q4 [6] - Cost increases have impacted performance, but the core asset value is anticipated to be revalued positively [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 7.105 billion yuan, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 297 million yuan, reflecting a 13.0% decline year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.69%, down 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising costs [4] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index over the past month and three months, with a decline of 8.7% and 1.9% respectively, but has outperformed over the past year with a gain of 35.9% [3] - The current stock price is 3.45 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 2.45 to 4.16 yuan [3] Future Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 27.284 billion yuan, 28.395 billion yuan, and 29.560 billion yuan, respectively, each reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [9] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.281 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.564 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21%, 11%, and 10% respectively [9] - The report indicates that the company has both value and growth potential in the short, medium, and long term [9]