Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial and Commercial Holding [2][7] Core Insights - Jonjee achieved a revenue of RMB 5.52 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.4% to RMB 890 million [4][9] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.57 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 32.6%, although net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 89.3% to RMB 320 million [4][9] - The company is expected to continue expanding its channels and sales regions while enhancing management efficiency, with projected revenues of RMB 5.99 billion, RMB 6.56 billion, and RMB 7.23 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][13] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Net Profit Forecast: - 2024 Revenue: RMB 5,519 million - 2025 Revenue Estimate: RMB 5,988 million (up 8.5% YoY) - 2026 Revenue Estimate: RMB 6,557 million (up 9.5% YoY) - 2027 Revenue Estimate: RMB 7,232 million (up 10.3% YoY) - 2024 Net Profit: RMB 893 million - 2025 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 972 million (up 16.2% YoY) - 2026 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 1,084 million (up 17.6% YoY) - 2027 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 1,213 million (up 18.0% YoY) [2][8][12] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin increased to 39.8% in 2024, up 7.1 percentage points, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased to 16.2% [6][12] - In Q4 2024, the gross margin rose to 45.8%, with a net profit margin of 20.2% [6][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on channel transformation and expanding its market presence, achieving a county-level market penetration of 75.4% and a prefecture-level penetration of 95.8% by the end of the reporting period [5][11] - Meiweixian, a key product line, reported a revenue of RMB 5.07 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Medlive Technology with a target price of HK$15.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HK$11.60 [2]. Core Insights - Medlive Technology is recognized as China's largest physician platform, providing professional content and mature monetization strategies, which contribute to sustained high growth [1]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the digital marketing space for healthcare, leveraging its extensive database of over 4 million registered physicians, which represents 88% of the total practicing physicians in China [3][9]. - The revenue forecast for Medlive Technology shows a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of ¥7.26 billion, ¥9.44 billion, and ¥12.27 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Medlive Technology focuses on delivering digital marketing solutions to healthcare enterprises, primarily through precise marketing and enterprise solutions, which accounted for 82% of its revenue in 2024 [3][13]. - The company has a history of productizing medical information and has formed strategic partnerships, notably with M3, to enhance its digital marketing capabilities [15][18]. - The management team is experienced, with key figures having over 10 years in the industry, ensuring a stable governance structure [20]. 2. Industry Analysis - The Chinese healthcare digital marketing market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by increased online marketing expenditures from pharmaceutical companies, which reached approximately ¥219.7 billion in 2023 [23][29]. - Regulatory changes are pushing pharmaceutical representatives towards academic promotion, enhancing the demand for digital marketing solutions [31][34]. - The number of practicing physicians in China is substantial, with over 4.43 million, creating a significant market for digital marketing to reach these professionals effectively [35][39]. 3. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2024, Medlive Technology experienced a revenue CAGR of 37.3%, with a profit margin of 21.2% [3][5]. - The revenue structure is diversified, with precise marketing and enterprise solutions being the core revenue drivers, complemented by medical knowledge services and patient management solutions [14][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable adjusted profit margin of around 21% while facing potential interest income declines due to external economic factors [5]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be ¥3.2 billion, ¥3.5 billion, and ¥3.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of -1%, 7%, and 13% respectively [5]. - The valuation is based on a P/E ratio of 32x for 2025, leading to a target price of HK$15.00 per share, reinforcing the OUTPERFORM rating [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Outperform" with a focus on specific companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology, XCMG Construction Machinery, and Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic, while Guangxi Liugong Machinery is identified as a beneficiary target [2][20]. Core Insights - The report indicates that domestic excavator sales growth is expected to continue rising due to counter-cyclical fiscal policies and an upward industry cycle. Despite trade friction risks, most engineering machinery manufacturers have minimal exposure to the U.S. market, making the overall risk controllable. The year 2025 is anticipated to present more opportunities than risks [2][20]. - In March 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 29,590 units, marking an 18.5% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 19,517 units (up 28.5% YoY) and exports at 10,073 units (up 2.87% YoY). For the first quarter of 2025, total excavator sales were 61,372 units, up 22.8% YoY [2][20]. - The average monthly working hours for major engineering machinery in March 2025 were reported at 90.1 hours, a 6.53% increase YoY, with excavators averaging 86.9 hours. The monthly operating rate for major machinery was 60.8%, showing a slight decline YoY [2][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March 2025, excavator sales totaled 29,590 units, with domestic sales at 19,517 units and exports at 10,073 units. The first quarter saw total sales of 61,372 units, with domestic sales at 36,562 units and exports at 24,810 units [2][20]. Working Hours and Utilization - The average monthly working hours for major engineering machinery were 90.1 hours in March 2025, with a significant increase in utilization for Pangyuan rental tower cranes, which improved to 49.7% [2][20]. Trade Risks - The report highlights that the trade friction risk is manageable, with most Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers having minimal exposure to the U.S. market, ensuring overall risk remains controllable [2][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - Google has launched its 7th-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v7), codenamed "Ironwood," which offers up to 2x improvements in performance and energy efficiency compared to its predecessor, Trillium [6][7] - Ironwood is positioned as one of the fastest AI inference platforms globally, optimized for large language models (LLMs) and mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures, with a peak performance of 42.5 ExaFLOPS [7][8] - Google is leveraging a "hardware + cloud service" bundling strategy to enhance the appeal of its cloud services, as Ironwood is only available through Google Cloud, which may drive growth in cloud business amid increasing demand for inference capabilities [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Product Launch and Performance - Google officially unveiled TPU v7 (Ironwood) on April 9, 2025, at the Cloud Next conference, achieving significant performance and energy efficiency improvements [6] - Ironwood can support up to 9,216 TPU chips, providing a peak performance of 42.5 ExaFLOPS, making it one of the fastest AI inference platforms [7] Section 2: Competitive Positioning - Google is intensifying its competition with NVIDIA in the AI chip market, but Ironwood is not sold externally and is only available through Google Cloud [8] - The industry trend is shifting towards inference capabilities, as seen with the release of Llama 4, which focuses on inference performance [8] Section 3: Comparison with NVIDIA - A comparison between Google TPU v7 and NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture shows that TPU v7 focuses on inference while Blackwell targets general-purpose AI acceleration [10][11] - TPU v7 achieves a peak performance of 42.5 ExaFLOPS, while NVIDIA's GB200 card reaches 20 PFLOPS, indicating TPU's advantage in aggregate compute but NVIDIA's lead in precision flexibility and commercial availability [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for ADNOC Distribution Core Insights - ADNOC Distribution has a unique retail business model focused on shareholder cash returns and strategic expansion into international markets like Saudi Arabia and Egypt [1][2] - The company operates 896 fuel stations with a target of reaching 1,000 by the end of fiscal year 2028, including 551 in the UAE, 100 in Saudi Arabia, and 245 in Egypt [2] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, promising to distribute at least $700 million or 75% of net profits as dividends from fiscal year 2024 to 2028, with an expected dividend yield of approximately 6.0% [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - ADNOC Distribution is a fuel and convenience store retailer based in Abu Dhabi, primarily operating in the UAE, with expansions into Saudi Arabia and Egypt [2] - The company is owned 77% by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and operates various services including fuel distribution, convenience stores, and electric vehicle charging stations [2] Business Model and Strategy - The company aims to diversify energy convenience and transportation services while leveraging existing infrastructure for growth in the UAE and international markets [3] - ADNOC Distribution utilizes artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, with 2.3 million users on its app [3] Financial Performance - Over the past five years, ADNOC Distribution has achieved a 27% return on invested capital [3] - The company has a high gross margin of 50%-60% in its electric vehicle charging business, indicating strong profitability potential in this segment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of USD 25.89, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 16.51 [2][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express achieved stable profitability in 2024, with revenue of RMB 44.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 8.817 billion, up 0.8% [3][12]. - The company is focusing on parcel volume growth in 2025, with guidance set at 20%-24%, aiming to exceed industry average growth rates [3][13]. - The average price per unit increased due to an optimized customer structure, contributing to revenue growth [4][13]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, ZTO Express reported revenue of RMB 12.92 billion, a 21.7% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.669 billion, up 21.5% [3][12]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 31.0%, improving from 30.4% in the previous year, driven by a significant decline in transportation costs [4][10]. - The company expects adjusted net income to ordinary equity of RMB 10.126 billion in 2025, with projected EPS of RMB 12.08 [5][14]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - Core express service revenue for 2024 was RMB 40.953 billion, a 15.7% increase, supported by a 12.6% growth in parcel volume and a 2.7% rise in unit price [4][10]. - Transportation costs decreased significantly, with a reduction of approximately 4 cents per unit in 2024, attributed to economies of scale and lower fuel prices [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - ZTO Express completed a parcel volume of 34 billion in 2024, capturing a market share of 19.4%, despite a slight decline in growth rate [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its market share and accelerate volume growth in 2025, focusing on high-value packages [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Morimatsu International Holdings, with a target price of HKD 6.96, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 4.67 [2][20]. Core Insights - The company's FY24 revenue was CNY 6.95 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in project execution. However, the gross profit margin improved to 29.5%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to better operational efficiency and material cost control [3][4][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24 was CNY 737 million, down 12.7% year-on-year, mainly impacted by accounts receivable impairment [17][20]. - The company’s backlog at the end of FY24 was CNY 8.1 billion, down from CNY 8.8 billion at the end of 1H24, with new orders for FY24 totaling CNY 6.0 billion, reflecting a shift in project execution practices [5][18][20]. - Overseas revenue accounted for 60.4% of total revenue in FY24, with 70.6% of new orders being export orders, indicating stable international demand [6][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 have been revised down to CNY 7.77 billion and CNY 8.47 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.8% and 9.1% [8][20]. - The net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have also been adjusted to CNY 872 million and CNY 939 million, suggesting growth rates of 18.3% and 7.7% [8][20]. - The report utilizes a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 10.6% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.5% [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [2]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of CNY 29.01 billion in FY24, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with finished drug revenue at CNY 23.74 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [12][3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was 70.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.33 billion, down 26.3% year-on-year [12][3]. - The report anticipates that licensing income will contribute incremental revenue, with expectations for innovative drug products to exceed CNY 1.5 billion in FY25 [13][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 are adjusted to CNY 31.4 billion and CNY 32.7 billion, reflecting an increase of 8.2% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [17]. - Net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are raised to CNY 5.8 billion and CNY 5.3 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 34.7% and a decline of 8.5% [17]. - The report highlights a diluted EPS of CNY 0.50 for FY25 and CNY 0.45 for FY26 [10]. Segment Performance - The nervous system segment showed steady growth with sales reaching CNY 9.6 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year, while the oncology segment saw a decline to CNY 4.4 billion, down 28.3% year-on-year due to volume-based procurement (VBP) impacts [19][4]. - Revenue from anti-infectives was CNY 4.1 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year, and cardiovascular sales were CNY 2.1 billion, down 14.8% year-on-year [19][4]. - The respiratory system segment experienced a significant decline, with sales of CNY 1.2 billion, down 23.1% year-on-year, while digestion and metabolism registered sales of CNY 1.1 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year [19][4]. Clinical Development and Licensing - CSPC initiated the first Phase III clinical trial for SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) in March 2025, targeting EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer [15]. - The company out-licensed its ROR1 ADC to Radiance Biopharma, receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million with potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.2 billion [16]. - The report suggests that licensing revenue will gradually become a recurring income stream for CSPC [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's core product sales are strong, with commercial sales revenue reaching RMB 2.00 billion, a 24.9% increase, while total revenue for 2024 was RMB 2.13 billion, reflecting a 53.1% decline primarily due to reduced licensing revenue [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, resulting in a significant reduction in expense ratios across the board, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of some outsourced clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various trials, including those for hepatocellular carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer [5][19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of RMB 501 million for 2024, but the operating net loss narrowed by 16.7% year-over-year to RMB 660 million [3][16]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, respectively, with expected year-over-year growth rates of 60% and 34% in the following years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. Clinical Pipeline - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including those for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company is expanding into antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) with several candidates entering clinical or IND application stages [10][30][31]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].

研究报告 Research Report 7 Apr 2025 亚盛医药 Ascentage Pharma (6855 HK) 国内商业化表现稳健，全球化创新进入加速期 Domestic commercialization remains solid, while global innovation enters an accelerated phase [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$45.40 目标价 HK$51.90 HTI ESG 5.0-4.4-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$15.81bn / US$2.03bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$18.75mn 发行股票数目 348.27mn 自由流通股 (%) 70% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$47.70-HK$15.70 注：现价 HK$44.85 为 2025 ...