[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略周报 牛还在——再议 924 行情性质 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | 图 | 1 24 年以来 | GDP 平减指数同比增速持续为负 5 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2 | 25 年宏观政策组合定调史上最为积极 5 | | | 图 | 3 | 一线城市二手房价格回落跌幅已较大 5 | | | 图 | 4 | 工业企业利润和收入增速放缓 5 | | | 图 | 5 | 924 行情启动前 A 股换手率已处历史低位区域 6 | | | 图 | 6 | A 股风险溢价率仍处 05 年以来低位 | 6 | | 图 | 7 | 10-12 年熊市反弹幅度渐低，成交量高点下移 7 | | | 图 | 8 | 22-24 年熊市反弹幅度渐低，成交量高点下移 7 | | | 图 | 9 | 恒生指数 10/8 单日成交量创下 21 年来新高 7 | | | 图 | 10 | 上证指数 10/8 单日成交量创下 21 年来新高 7 | | | 图 | 11 | 05/06-07/10 牛市可以分为三阶段 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 Jan 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 关注"竞争格局优+新品 0-1 突破"的半导体材料布局机会 Semiconductor Materials Featuring "Good Competitive Landscape + 0 to 1 Breakthrough 陈昊飞 Haofei Chen, PhD 张晓飞 Xiaofei Zhang haofei.chen@htisec.com xf.zhang@htisec.com 热点速评 Flash Analysis (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_summary] 半导体材料板块的观点 中国大陆晶圆厂/封测厂的稼动率情况整体优于海外，得益于"local for local"在地化趋势的进一步演进。半导体材 料板块细分领域众多，整体受益下游稼动率的复苏带来使用量的增长，但部分中低端品类在 2025 年仍有价格压 力。我们看好竞争格局优的细分领域龙头企业，特别是能够在先进存储 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Bank of America (BAC US) [1][2][3] Core Views - Bank of America's 24Q4 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with both net interest income and non-interest income surpassing forecasts [2][3] - The net interest margin (NIM) was higher than expected, and loan and deposit growth also exceeded expectations [2][3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was higher than expected, indicating a slight deterioration in asset quality [2][3] - Return on equity (ROE) and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) exceeded expectations, and the CET1 ratio also surpassed forecasts [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue grew by 15.4% YoY, higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 14.0% [2][3] - Net interest income increased by 3.0% YoY, above the expected 1.7% [2][3] - Non-interest income surged by 37.1% YoY, exceeding the expected 36.0% [2][3] - Consumer banking revenue grew by 3.1% YoY, higher than the expected 1.2% [2][3] - Global wealth and investment management revenue increased by 14.8% YoY, above the expected 14.0% [2][3] - Global markets revenue grew by 18.4% YoY, below the expected 20.4% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders surged by 125.5% YoY, significantly higher than the expected 112.9% [2][3] - The cost-to-income ratio decreased by 14.5 percentage points YoY to 66.2%, slightly worse than the expected 65.9% [2][3] - Provisions for credit losses were $1.452 billion, a 31.5% YoY increase, lower than the expected 42.0% [2][3] - The NPL ratio increased by 2 basis points QoQ to 0.55%, higher than the expected 0.52% [2][3] - ROE increased by 5.04 percentage points YoY to 9.37%, above the expected 8.76% [2][3] - ROTCE rose by 6.71 percentage points YoY to 12.63%, higher than the expected 11.86% [2][3] - The CET1 ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points YoY to 11.90%, above the expected 11.70% [2][3] - The net interest margin (NIM) increased by 5 basis points QoQ to 1.97%, higher than the expected 1.94% [2][3] - Total loans grew by 4.0% YoY, above the expected 2.9%, while total deposits grew by 2.2% YoY, higher than the expected 1.2% [2][3] Business Segment Performance - Consumer banking revenue: $10.646 billion, up 3.1% YoY [3] - Global wealth and investment management revenue: $6.002 billion, up 14.8% YoY [3] - Global banking revenue: $6.091 billion, up 2.7% YoY [3] - Global markets revenue: $4.840 billion, up 18.4% YoY [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Morgan Stanley (MS US) [1][2][3][4] Core Views - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with significant outperformance across key business segments [2][3][4] - The company's deposit and loan growth also surpassed market expectations, indicating strong financial performance [2][3][4] Business Performance - Revenue growth was +25.8% YoY, significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of +16.4% [3][4] - Net interest income increased by +34.5% YoY, outperforming the expected +5.2% [3][4] - Non-interest income grew by +24.3% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +21.8% [3][4] - Efficiency ratio improved by -15.0 percentage points to 69.0%, better than the expected 74.7% [3][4] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders surged by +157.7% YoY, far exceeding the forecast of +97.0% [3][4] Segment Performance - Institutional Securities revenue grew by +47.1% YoY, outperforming the expected +26.4% [3][4] - Wealth Management revenue increased by +12.5% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +10.2% [3][4] - Investment Management revenue rose by +12.2% YoY, surpassing the expected +6.3% [3][4] Balance Sheet Metrics - Total loans grew by +8.8% YoY, higher than the expected +3.6% [3][4] - Total deposits increased by +6.9% YoY, above the consensus forecast of +3.8% [3][4] - Credit loss provisions were $115 million, higher than the expected $74 million [3][4] Capital and Profitability Metrics - CET1 ratio increased by +0.7 percentage points to 15.9%, above the expected 15.1% [3][4] - ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) improved by +11.8 percentage points to 20.2%, significantly higher than the expected 15.2% [3][4] - ROE (Return on Equity) increased by +9.0 percentage points to 15.20%, above the consensus forecast of 11.44% [3][4] Summary - Morgan Stanley's Q4 2024 performance was strong across all key metrics, with revenue, profit, and balance sheet growth exceeding market expectations [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Industrial Bank is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on profit growth and asset quality improvements [1][4]. Core Insights - Industrial Bank reported a revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year for Q4 2024, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.9% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a negative growth rate of -10.4% in Q3 2024 [1][4]. - For the full year 2024, revenue growth was 0.66% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 0.12%, reversing a negative growth rate of -3.0% observed in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 decreased by 0.75% to 9.98%, while earnings per share (EPS) remained unchanged at 3.51 [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 revenue was down 3.1% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company rose by 16.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][4]. - For the entire year of 2024, revenue growth was 0.66% year-on-year, and net profit growth was 0.12%, showing a positive shift from earlier negative trends [1][4]. Asset Quality - Loan growth in Q4 2024 was 5.1%, down from 9.6% year-on-year, while deposit growth was 7.7%, a decrease from 8.9% year-on-year [2][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased slightly to 1.07%, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 237.78%, reflecting better asset quality management [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Industrial Bank is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on profit growth and asset quality improvements [1][4]. Core Insights - Industrial Bank reported a revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year for Q4 2024, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.9% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a negative growth rate of -10.4% in Q3 2024 [1][4]. - For the full year 2024, revenue growth was 0.66% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 0.12%, reversing a previous negative trend [1][4]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 decreased by 0.75% to 9.98%, and earnings per share (EPS) remained unchanged at 3.51 [1][4]. - Loan growth was reported at 5.1% compared to the end of 2023, which is a decline from 9.6% year-on-year growth in the previous year. Deposit growth was 7.7%, down from 8.9% year-on-year [2][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased slightly to 1.07%, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 237.78%, reflecting better asset quality [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 3.1% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent increased by 16.9% YoY, recovering from a -10.4% growth in Q3 2024 [1][4]. - For 2024, revenue growth was 0.66% YoY, and net profit growth was 0.12% YoY, reversing a previous negative trend [1][4]. - ROE decreased by 0.75% to 9.98%, and EPS remained at 3.51 [1][4]. Asset Quality - Loan growth was 5.1% compared to the end of 2023, down from 9.6% YoY growth [2][6]. - Deposit growth was 7.7%, a decrease from 8.9% YoY [2][6]. - NPL ratio decreased to 1.07%, and provision coverage ratio increased to 237.78% [2][6].

Investment Rating - Citigroup (C US) received a positive rating with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, and key financial metrics such as ROA, ROE, and ROTE outperforming consensus estimates [1][2][3] Core Views - Citigroup's 24Q4 revenue growth was +12.3% YoY, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of +11.8% [3] - Net interest income grew by -0.7% YoY, better than the expected -2.7%, while non-interest income increased by +61.7%, slightly below the consensus of +66.6% [3] - The cost-to-income ratio improved significantly, dropping by 24.4 percentage points YoY to 67.3%, outperforming the expected 68.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders turned positive at $2.583 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.424 billion [3] - NIM (Net Interest Margin) increased by 9 basis points QoQ to 2.42%, higher than the expected 2.35% [3] - ROA rose by 0.76 percentage points YoY to 0.46%, and ROE increased by 9.9 percentage points YoY to 5.4%, both outperforming consensus estimates [3] Financial Performance Breakdown Revenue Breakdown - Services revenue grew by 14.6% YoY to $5.175 billion, exceeding the expected 10.2% growth [4] - Markets revenue surged by 35.1% YoY to $4.576 billion, significantly higher than the expected 18.2% growth [4] - Personal Banking revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to $5.232 billion, slightly above the expected 4.8% growth [4] - Wealth revenue grew by 20.4% YoY to $2.003 billion, outperforming the expected 16.9% growth [4] Asset Quality - Non-performing loans (NPL) ratio increased by 8 basis points QoQ to 0.39%, higher than the expected 0.36% [3] - Total credit impairment losses were $2.593 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $2.578 billion [3] Capital and Profitability - CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points YoY to 13.6%, slightly below the expected 13.7% [3] - ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) improved by 11.20 percentage points YoY to 6.1%, outperforming the expected 5.5% [3] Key Metrics - Gross loans grew by 0.7% YoY to $694.488 billion, slightly below the expected 1.0% growth [4] - Total deposits decreased by 1.9% YoY to $1.284458 trillion, missing the expected 0.7% growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Goldman Sachs (GS US) [1][2][3] Core Views - Goldman Sachs reported strong Q4 2024 results, with both revenue and profit exceeding expectations [1][2] - Revenue grew by 22.5% YoY, significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.1% [3] - Net profit attributable to common stockholders surged by 110.1% YoY, far surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 44.7% [3] - Global Banking & Markets (GBM) and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) segments showed particularly strong performance [1][3] Business Segment Performance Global Banking & Markets (GBM) - GBM revenue increased by 33.4% YoY, driven by strong performance in investment banking, FICC, and equities [3] - Investment banking revenue was boosted by significant growth in equity and debt underwriting [3] - FICC and equities businesses benefited from increased net financing revenue [3] Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) - AWM revenue grew by 7.6% YoY, outperforming the Bloomberg consensus estimate of -6.5% [3] - Private banking and loan net revenue were positively impacted by higher deposit balances [3] Platform Solutions - Platform Solutions revenue increased by 15.9% YoY, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 8.2% [3] Financial Metrics - Net interest income surged by 75.1% YoY, significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 49.0% [3] - Non-interest income grew by 15.5% YoY, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 6.9% [3] - Total provision for credit losses was $351 million, a 39.2% YoY decrease, better than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $384 million [3] - ROE increased by 7.5 percentage points YoY to 14.6%, higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.9% [3] - ROTCE rose by 7.9 percentage points YoY to 15.5%, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 10.5% [3] - CET1 ratio improved by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 15.0%, above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 14.7% [3] - Cost-to-income ratio decreased by 11.5 percentage points YoY to 63.1%, better than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 67.0% [3] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans grew by 7.1% YoY, outperforming the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.8% [3] - Total deposits increased by 1.2% YoY, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 4.1% [3] Dividend - The dividend per share (DPS) was $3.00, in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Wells Fargo & Co (WFC US) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70] Core Views - Wells Fargo's 24Q4 revenue missed expectations, but net profit exceeded expectations [2] - Net interest income (NII) and net interest margin (NIM) outperformed expectations, while noninterest income underperformed [1][2] - The bank's provision for credit losses and non-performing loan (NPL) ratio were better than expected [3][4] - CET1 ratio, ROA, ROE, and ROTCE showed mixed results compared to consensus estimates [3][4][5] Financial Performance - Revenue growth was -0.5% YoY, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.5% [4][8] - Net interest income declined by 7.3% YoY, better than the expected decline of 8.4% [4][5] - Noninterest income grew by 10.8% YoY, below the expected growth of 14.5% [4][5] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders increased by 51.9% YoY, surpassing the expected growth of 45.1% [4][5] - NIM increased by 3bp to 2.70%, above the consensus estimate of 2.67% [4][5] - Total loans decreased by 2.6% YoY, better than the expected decline of 2.8% [4][5] - Total deposits grew by 1.0% YoY, outperforming the expected decline of 0.5% [4][5] - Credit loss provisions were $1.095 billion, better than the expected $1.224 billion [4][5] - NPL ratio decreased by 5bp to 0.87%, below the expected 0.92% [4][5] - CET1 ratio decreased by 0.3pct to 11.1%, slightly below the expected 11.2% [4][5] - ROTCE increased by 4.9pct to 13.9%, above the expected 13.0% [4][5] - ROA increased by 0.33pct to 1.05%, above the expected 0.98% [4][5] - ROE increased by 4.1pct to 11.7%, above the expected 11.0% [4][5] Business Segment Performance - Consumer Banking and Lending revenue declined by 5.7% YoY, below the expected decline of 2.0% [4][5] - Corporate and Investment Banking revenue declined by 2.6% YoY, below the expected decline of 1.2% [4][5] - Wealth and Investment Management revenue grew by 8.1% YoY, above the expected growth of 7.7% [4][5] - Commercial Banking revenue declined by 5.8% YoY, below the expected decline of 4.7% [4][5] Key Metrics - Cost-to-income ratio decreased by 9.0pct to 68.0%, slightly above the expected 65.9% [4][5] - DPS increased by $0.05 to $0.4, in line with expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for J.P. Morgan (JPM.US) but indicates strong performance metrics that suggest a positive outlook [1][2]. Core Insights - J.P. Morgan's Q4 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in consumer community banking, commercial banking, and asset wealth management, while corporate investment banking fell short [2][3]. - The bank reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 10.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 7.2% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to common stockholders increased by 54.1% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 31.8% [3][8]. - The net interest margin (NIM) improved by 3 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 2.61%, higher than the forecast of 2.53% [3][8]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio rose by 0.7 percentage points year-over-year to 15.7%, also above the expected 15.2% [3][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $42.768 billion, compared to the expected $41.355 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 10.9% [5]. - Net interest income was reported at $23.350 billion, a decrease of 2.9% year-over-year, but better than the expected decline of 4.7% [5]. - Non-interest income surged by 33.7% year-over-year to $19.418 billion, exceeding the forecast of 28.2% [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans grew by 1.8% year-over-year to $1.348 trillion, slightly below the expected growth of 1.9% [5]. - Total deposits increased by 0.2% year-over-year to $2.406 trillion, which was lower than the expected 1.7% growth [5]. Asset Quality and Provisions - Total provisions for credit losses were $2.631 billion, better than the expected $3.038 billion [5]. - The non-performing loans (NPL) ratio increased to 0.65%, which was higher than the expected 0.58% [5]. Future Outlook - J.P. Morgan anticipates a net interest income (NII) of $94 billion for 2025, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth due to lower funding costs [3]. - The bank expects total expenses to be around $95 billion in 2025, a 4.3% increase from the previous year [3].