New Quality Productive Forces - The 2024 Government Work Report prioritizes the development of modern industrial systems and new quality productive forces, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green industries [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) hosts numerous SMEs within the new quality productive forces industrial chain, which are expected to benefit from policy dividends and drive industrial upgrading [2] - Government investment in 2024 is heavily tilted towards new quality productive forces, with local government special bonds and central budget investments totaling 3.9 trillion yuan and 700 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The BSE is a hub for "Little Giants" (specialized and sophisticated SMEs), with 85.8% of listed companies and 86.8% of queued companies being "Little Giants" [5] - The BSE's listed companies are concentrated in high-growth sectors such as machinery, power equipment, and basic chemicals, with 95.4% belonging to strategic emerging industries [6] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy was elevated to a strategic emerging industry in the 2024 Government Work Report, with several BSE companies playing key roles in its industrial chain [14] - Companies like Hanxin Technology and Yunxingyu are actively involved in low-altitude economy-related projects, including smart transportation and drone applications [16][34] AI and AI Applications - The 2024 Government Work Report introduced the "AI+" initiative, highlighting the importance of AI development and application, with BSE companies expected to benefit [35] - Companies like Parallel Technology and Leishen Technology are developing AI-related products, including AI PCs and GPU computing power services [21][22] Humanoid Robots - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for robot industry development aims for a 20% annual growth in robot industry revenue by 2025, with BSE companies in the humanoid robot industrial chain expected to benefit [25] - Companies like Dingzhi Technology and Suzhou Axle are actively developing key components for humanoid robots, such as linear actuators and precision bearings [26] Consumer Sector - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference prioritized boosting domestic demand, with policies aimed at increasing consumer spending and upgrading consumer goods [30] - The BSE's consumer sector is expected to see a turnaround, driven by policies such as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement [36] - Companies like Hengtuo Open Source and Chuangyuan Information are involved in low-altitude economy-related consumer projects, including smart transportation and drone applications [34] Mergers and Acquisitions - The "Six Measures for M&A" introduced by the CSRC in September 2024 aims to support listed companies in injecting high-quality assets, leading to increased M&A activity in the BSE [53] - The BSE's smaller market capitalization and simpler equity structures make it an attractive platform for M&A, particularly among specialized and sophisticated SMEs [111] Market Performance and Liquidity - The BSE experienced a significant rally following the "924" policy announcements, with the BSE 50 Index rising 111.2% from September 24 to December 10, 2024 [52] - Liquidity in the BSE improved significantly, with daily average turnover reaching 338.38 billion yuan during the same period, a 516.97% increase year-on-year [81] - The BSE's valuation reached a historical high, with the median PE (TTM) rising from 17.9x to 42.1x during the "924" rally [99]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its diversified business, future development direction, and high dividend attributes [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 36.5 billion, HKD 36.6 billion, and HKD 37.3 billion for the years 2024-2026, with net profits attributable to the parent company projected at HKD 7.7 billion for 2024 and 2025, and HKD 7.5 billion for 2026 [1]. - The report highlights the strong support for the commodity market, with expectations of demand improvement driven by stimulus policies, which will enhance the profitability of commodity supply chain enterprises [84]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply chain management services industry, which is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at upgrading and transforming the sector [15]. Summary by Sections Economic Development Stage - The industry is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Supply Chain Market - The Chinese bulk supply chain market is large, with increasing industry concentration [6]. - The report indicates that the supply chain crisis is easing, leading to a recovery in shipping rates [92]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 9.5 billion, HKD 10.3 billion, and HKD 11.5 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding BPS of HKD 6.57, HKD 6.91, and HKD 7.3 [34]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue growth rates and profit margins for various companies in the sector [23][33]. Investment Logic - The company is positioned as a leader in integrated supply chain services in China, with significant sales volumes in metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [22]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies that enhance logistics and warehousing capabilities to provide comprehensive supply chain services, such as Material China (600704.SH) and Su Mei Da (600710.SH) [84]. Shipping and Trade - The report notes that the shipping trade is expected to grow, with a projected increase in maritime trade volume by 2% in 2024 and container trade volume by 3.5% [90]. - The demand for dry bulk shipping is anticipated to rise due to increased long-distance mineral imports [70]. Policy Impact - National policies are actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of supply chain management services, which is expected to enhance overall efficiency and international competitiveness [15].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 14 | | | | 国内重卡销量（月） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | e | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

上海 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业创新药周报（12.16-12.22） A 股和港股创新药板块及 XBI 指数本周走势 西南证券研究发展中心 本周 A 股创新药板块下跌 0.79%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.11pp，生物医药下跌 2.04%。近 6 个月 A 股创新药累计上涨 12.03%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.56pp， 生物医药累计上涨 5.85%。 本周 XBI 指数下跌 3.72%，近6 个月 XBI 指数累计下跌 1.26%。 12 月国内 11 款新药获批上市，无新增适应症获批上市；本周国内 2 款新药获批 上市，无新增适应症获批上市。 12 月美国 4 款 NDA 获批上市，3 款 BLA 获批上市。本周美国 2 款 NDA 获批上 市，1款 BLA 获批上市。12月欧洲无创新药获批上市，本周欧洲无新药获批上市。 12 月日本无创新药获批上市，本周日本无新药获批上市。 本周全球共达成 21起重点交易，披露金额的重点交易有 9起。默沙东与翰森制药 签订协议，交易金额为 2012百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next six months [73]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing strong retail growth, with passenger car retail sales reaching 1.083 million units from December 1-15, a year-on-year increase of 34% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [50]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for smart vehicles and components, driven by regulatory support and technological advancements in areas such as intelligent driving and low-altitude economy [51]. - Key companies such as GAC Group and Aikodi are noted for their expanding production capacities and accelerating electric vehicle (EV) business [55][56]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Major automotive companies reported significant sales growth in November, with GAC Group selling 199,000 units, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year but a 7.1% increase month-on-month [41]. - BYD's passenger car sales reached 504,000 units in November, reflecting a 67.2% year-on-year increase [41]. Market Trends - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as of December 20 is 24 times, down 0.8% from the previous week, indicating a slight decline in valuation [26]. - The report notes a 1.3% decrease in steel prices and a 4% drop in natural rubber futures, which may impact production costs in the automotive industry [33]. Company Developments - Aikodi is expanding its production capacity and accelerating its EV business, with a projected increase in sales and profitability [55]. - Fuyao Glass is expected to enhance its market share due to its advantages in business focus and profitability [56]. - The report mentions that companies like KOBODA are increasing their market share in traditional lighting while also developing new growth points in domain controllers [59]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies as key investment opportunities, including GAC Group, Aikodi, and Fuyao Glass, due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the EV sector [55][56][60].

Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government aims to enhance domestic demand comprehensively, focusing on increasing consumer capacity and willingness through fiscal measures and social security improvements[6]. - In 2024, the government plans to allocate 3.9 trillion yuan in new special bonds, with expectations for the limit to exceed 4 trillion yuan, to support local government projects and stimulate economic growth[8]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, emphasizing quality development and strategic mergers and acquisitions[10]. Economic Indicators - The Markit Composite PMI for the U.S. in December reached 56.6%, the highest since March 2022, indicating strong economic growth but uneven performance between sectors[32]. - The Eurozone's Composite PMI for December was 49.5%, indicating continued contraction in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, while services showed some resilience[16]. - Japan's exports grew by 3.8% year-on-year in November, while imports fell by 3.8%, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.6 billion yen, better than market expectations[17]. Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market reacted with increased bond yields and a decline in major stock indices, reflecting concerns over future monetary policy tightening[19]. - The Fed's updated projections indicate a potential increase in interest rates in the coming years, with 17 out of 19 officials expecting rates to exceed 3.5% by 2025[19]. Sector-Specific Developments - The real estate market is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand due to optimized local government bond management, which will support housing projects and improve market conditions[8]. - The government is focusing on new consumption sectors such as culture, tourism, and digital economy, aiming to foster innovative consumption models[6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and their commercialization potential [28][49]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a recovery, with a notable increase in sales and profit margins, driven by policy support for innovative drugs and a growing aging population [4][14][20]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical data and commercialization milestones for investment decisions in innovative drugs [48][49]. - The overall healthcare expenditure in China is on the rise, with total health expenditure projected at 90,578.8 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year increase [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 296.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [53]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 37.09 billion yuan, marking a 9.6% increase [53]. 2. Demographic Trends - China's aging population is significant, with 220 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.4% of the total population, which is expected to peak by mid-century [4]. 3. Government Policy and Support - The government has approved a comprehensive plan to support the development of innovative drugs, which includes optimizing pricing, insurance payments, and regulatory processes [28][66]. - The report notes that 89 out of 117 drugs successfully entered the insurance negotiation process, with an average price reduction of 63% [28]. 4. Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in leading innovative drug companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, and companies transitioning to innovation like Yi Fan Medicine and En Hua Pharmaceutical [49]. - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to expand internationally, with significant licensing deals already in progress [29]. 5. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in the sales expense ratio for pharmaceutical companies, indicating improved operational efficiency [55]. - The overall research and development expense ratio for the A-share innovative drug sector is reported at 12%, slightly down from the previous year [38]. 6. Subsector Analysis - The report highlights that the chemical preparation sector has become the largest holding in public pharmaceutical funds, with a market share of 19.4% [62]. - The medical device sector has seen a decrease in market share, with a notable decline of 0.13 percentage points [1]. 7. Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by favorable policies and demographic trends, with a focus on innovative drug development and commercialization [28][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, particularly regarding the international expansion of innovative drugs [2][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent licensing agreement between Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Merck for the oral GLP-1R agonist HS-10535, which includes an upfront payment of $110 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.9 billion, indicating strong international collaboration in the innovative drug space [2][43]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical industry index has underperformed, with a decline of 10.62% year-to-date, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 25.1 percentage points [11][32]. - The current valuation level of the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is 27.31 times, with a premium of 79.55% relative to the entire A-share market [11][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report recommends a portfolio including companies such as Sino Medical (688108), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262), and Shanghai Laishi (002252), among others, with a focus on their growth potential and market performance [12][21][34]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index experienced a decline of 2.13% in the past week, ranking 14th among industries, while the year-to-date performance shows a significant underperformance compared to the broader market [11][32]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, noting that traditional Chinese medicine has shown the best relative performance despite a slight decline [11][20]. Hong Kong Stock Portfolio Analysis - The report includes a portfolio of Hong Kong-listed companies such as Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995) and Hengrui Medicine (0013), analyzing their recent performance and market expectations [3][44][27]. Innovation and Research Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing research and development in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in the context of new drug approvals and clinical trials, which are crucial for future growth [11][31].

请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） [Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） 面向证券 目 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------| | | | | | 1 行情回顾 … | | | 2 产业动态 . | | | 3 触黄动态 . | | | 4 风险提示 | 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 机器人行业周报（1216-1222） | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 目 图 | 录 | | | | | | | 图 1: 机器人指数行情回顾 . | | | | 图 2: 智元机器人组装车间 . | | | | 图 3： 智元机器人 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.18 CNY over the next six months, based on the current price of 8.23 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of smart urban rail and low-altitude economy, exploring new opportunities in digital intelligence [1][2]. - The traditional urban rail business is expected to continue benefiting from the renewal and upgrade of urban rail systems, with a significant market potential of 375-560 billion CNY for signal system upgrades by 2030 [7]. - The semiconductor materials capacity expansion is anticipated to benefit from the industry's recovery, with a projected 19.78% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales in 2024 [3]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 6 trillion CNY by 2035, with the company actively developing three major business areas in this sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the smart urban rail sector, having established a "1+2+N" development strategy focusing on smart transportation, semiconductor, and digital industry [63][68]. - The company has shifted its focus to smart transportation and semiconductor industries, divesting from energy-saving and environmental protection businesses [64]. 2. Smart Transportation - The smart transportation segment has seen revenue growth from 9.8 billion CNY in 2017 to 25.6 billion CNY in 2021, although it faced challenges in 2022-2023 due to stricter approval requirements for subway projects [71]. - The company achieved a market share increase in urban rail signal systems from 15.2% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2023, with significant new orders in the smart transportation sector [7][71]. 3. Semiconductor Industry - The company is expanding its semiconductor materials production capacity, with projects in Shanxi and Pujiang progressing well, aiming to capitalize on the industry's recovery [3][4]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to see a steady increase in sales, with a projected year-on-year growth of 19.78% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. 4. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with government policies supporting its development, and the company has established a presence in this emerging market [8][88]. - The company is developing a comprehensive low-altitude service model, including smart take-off and landing fields and safety control systems, to capture growth in this sector [8][89]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.23 billion CNY, 2.85 billion CNY, and 3.23 billion CNY, with net profits projected to grow significantly [12]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 12% in revenue and 43% in net profit over the next three years [12].