证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 三棵树（603737.SH） 优于大市 2025 中报点评：渠道精耕升级，经营改善持续兑现 收入同比有韧性，利润高增持续兑现。2025H1 公司实现营收 58.2 亿元，同 比+0.97%，归母净利润 4.4 亿元，同比+107.5%，扣非归母净利润 2.9 亿元， 同比+268.5%，高于此前业绩预告中枢（归母净利润 3.8-4.6 亿元，扣非归 母净利润 2.3-3.1 亿元）EPS 为 0.59 元/股；其中 Q2 单季度营收 36.9 亿元， 同比-0.2%，归母净利润 3.3 亿元，同比+103%，扣非归母净利润 3.1 亿元， 同比+96%，单季收入同比微降有韧性，同时受益毛利率提升、费用及减值减 少，利润同比高增持续兑现，2025H1 计提信用减值损失 0.87 亿元，其中 Q2 单季 0.94 亿元，同比减少 0.7 和 0.89 亿元。 风险提示：地产需求下行超预期；渠道拓展不及预期；原材料上涨超预期 投资建议：渠道精耕转型升级，看好新成长阶段，维持"优于大市"评级 公司精耕渠道转型升级，零售新业态模式成熟并快速复制，工程端聚焦并深 入布局厂房、酒店 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][40]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in its refrigerant segment due to rising prices, with a notable increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - Despite challenges in the silicone and fluoropolymer markets, the company maintains a strong position in the refrigerant market, benefiting from its leading production capacity and quota [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a long-term favorable cycle in the refrigerant market, while adjustments have been made to profit forecasts for the organic silicon and fluoropolymer segments [5][40]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 779 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.28%, with revenue reaching 7.463 billion yuan, up 2.79% [1][9]. - The refrigerant segment generated revenue of 2.292 billion yuan, a 47.69% increase year-on-year, and profits of 1.03 billion yuan, up 209.77% [2][24]. - The fluoropolymer segment saw revenues of 1.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.58% year-on-year, with profits down 14.57% to 259 million yuan [3][31]. - The organic silicon segment reported revenues of 2.319 billion yuan, down 15.95% year-on-year, with profits plummeting 83.70% to 8.75 million yuan [4][33]. Market Position - The company is a leading producer of R22 and R32 refrigerants in China, holding significant production capacity and quotas, which positions it favorably in the market [2][24]. - The company has approximately 220,000 tons of R22 capacity and 60,000 tons of R32 capacity, with the largest domestic quota for R22 at 43,900 tons [2][24]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 2.123 billion, 2.563 billion, and 2.806 billion yuan respectively [5][40]. - The EPS estimates for the same period are projected to be 1.23, 1.48, and 1.62 yuan [5][40].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 保利发展（600048.SH） 业绩下滑，积极推进存量去化 归母净利下降 64%。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入 1169 亿元，同比下降 16.1%；实现归母净利润 27 亿元，同比下降 63.5%。因房地产项目结转规模 下降，公司营业总收入同比下降；受行业和市场波动影响，结转项目盈利能 力下降，相关利润指标相应同比下降。 销售保持领先，推进存量去化。2025 上半年公司实现销售面积 714 万平方 米，同比下降 25.2%；实现销售金额 1452 亿元，同比下降 16.3%，站稳行业 龙头位置。上半年公司实现销售回笼 1448 亿元，综合回笼率 100%，同比提 高 15 个百分点；当期销售回笼率 65.3%，同比提升 9 个百分点。上半年，公 司 2021 年及以前获取的存量项目签约销售 394 万平方米，销售金额 514 亿 元，占比达 35%；存量未开发资源则严格落实"以销定产"，新完成"调转 换退"51 万平方米。 2025 上半年，公司新增项目 26 个，位于北京、上海、杭州、西安、石家庄 等核心城市，项目总地价 509 亿元，总计容面积 228 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][20][23] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 900 million yuan, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [1][9] - The property management business remains solid, with revenue of 6.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 13.1% increase year-on-year [2][16] - The community value-added services segment saw a slight decline in revenue to 1.2 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved to 39.9%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][20] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects net profits of 1.6 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.85 yuan and 3.05 yuan [3][20] - The projected PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 10.9 and 10.2, respectively [3][20] - Revenue forecasts for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 15.06 billion yuan in 2023, 16.34 billion yuan in 2024, 17.36 billion yuan in 2025, 18.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 19.68 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates gradually declining [4][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, maintained from previous assessments [5][15][17]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.568 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 313 million yuan, down 5.98% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is facing pressure in both B and C-end sales, with revenues of 2.9 billion yuan and 600 million yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 1.5% and 8.8% year-on-year. The overall demand in the frozen food industry remains weak [10][12]. - The company is focusing on quality, health, and personalized needs by upgrading its differentiated product matrix and expanding its channels, including launching new products like grilled sausages and meatballs [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 22.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts and changes in product structure [2][10]. - The company’s sales expense ratio and management expense ratio for Q2 2025 were 12.7% and 4.9%, respectively, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][10]. Organizational and Channel Reforms - The company is advancing organizational and channel reforms by establishing a meat product division as a second growth curve and creating a new department for managing and servicing distributors [2][12]. - The number of distributors decreased by 740 to 3,455 in the first half of 2025, indicating a continuous optimization of the distributor structure [2][12]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 6.683 billion, 7.068 billion, and 7.391 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 5.8%, and 4.6% [3][15]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 531 million, 561 million, and 559 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, 5.7%, and -0.4% [3][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in Q2, with a revenue of 5.362 billion and a year-on-year increase of 7.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 799 million, up 13.80% year-on-year [1][8]. - The main brand, Proya, maintained stable development, while the emerging brands such as Off&Relax and Original Color Pot showed significant growth, contributing to the company's multi-brand strategy [4][17]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.00 yuan per 10 shares, marking the highest dividend payout ratio in its history at nearly 40% [1][8]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the main brand Proya generated revenue of 3.979 billion, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the Cai Tang brand saw a revenue increase of 21.11% to 705 million [2][9]. - Online channels accounted for 95.39% of total revenue in H1 2025, with online revenue growing by 9.17% year-on-year [10]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 73.85%, an increase of 4.25 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower freight rates and improved procurement capabilities [3][13]. Brand Performance - The emerging brands Off&Relax and Original Color Pot achieved remarkable revenue growth of 102.52% and 80.18%, respectively, with their revenue shares increasing to 5.22% and 1.81% [2][9]. - The company continues to focus on product innovation and marketing investments to strengthen its market position and expand its brand portfolio [4][17]. Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.766 billion, 1.933 billion, and 2.065 billion, respectively, reflecting increased marketing investments [4][17]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 21, 19, and 18 times, indicating a stable valuation outlook [4][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a 60% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2025, reaching 8.67 billion yuan, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices alongside increased production [6][24]. - The company is actively pursuing a goal of reaching a copper production capacity of 1 million tons, with significant projects like KFM Phase II and TFM Phase III expected to commence production after 2027 [20][24]. - The report highlights that the company has successfully completed the acquisition of the Ecuadorian gold mine and is progressing with its development, aiming for production before 2029 [6][24]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 4.73 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase year-on-year and a 19.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [6][24]. - The copper production in Q2 2025 was 183,000 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year, while copper sales reached 199,000 tons, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase and a significant 60.5% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][7]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 16.315 billion, 17.752 billion, and 18.924 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 8.8%, and 6.6% [24][25]. Cost and Pricing - The copper production cost in Q2 2025 was calculated at 32,015 yuan per ton, indicating potential for cost reduction in the future [8][9]. - The report indicates that for every 5,000 yuan increase in copper price, the company's net profit would increase by 1.4 billion yuan [20][24]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as one of the few large copper mining companies maintaining high growth in copper production, with expectations to reach 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028 [20][24]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong operational leverage to copper and cobalt prices, which could significantly enhance profitability [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19][20] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a 35.50% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 54.12% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][8] - The modified plastics business is experiencing stable growth, with sales volume increasing by 19.74% and revenue growing by 18.62% in the same period [1][9] - The green petrochemical sector is accelerating its integrated construction, optimizing product structure, and reducing production costs [2][9] - The medical health segment is actively expanding its market presence, with a remarkable 185.37% increase in sales revenue [3][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 316.36 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85 billion yuan [1][8] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.29%, with the second quarter showing a revenue of 159.70 billion yuan, a 24.41% increase year-on-year [1][8] Modified Plastics Business - The sales volume of modified plastics reached 1.3088 million tons, with revenue of 164.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.74% and 18.62% respectively [1][9] - The company is enhancing its global competitiveness by deepening cooperation with leading enterprises in various industries [1][9] Green Petrochemical Sector - The main product revenue from the Ningbo plant was 37.61 billion yuan, up 43.17%, while the ABS product sales from the Liaoning plant increased by 40.65% [2][9] - The company is focusing on the integration of green petrochemicals and modified plastics to improve product value and competitiveness [2][9] New Materials Segment - The new materials segment saw a sales volume of 12.85 million tons, a 31.39% increase year-on-year [2][12] - The company has successfully launched production of bio-based products, expanding applications in various fields [2][12] Medical Health Segment - The medical health segment reported sales revenue of 4.68 billion yuan, a staggering 185.37% increase, with significant growth in nitrile glove sales [3][15]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 中材科技（002080.SZ） 优于大市 2025 中报点评：收入利润双增长，高端突破优势领先 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 25,889 | 23,984 | 28,138 | 30,785 | 33,106 | | (+/-%) | 17.1% | -7.4% | 17.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | | 净利润(百万元) | 2224 | 892 | 1978 | 2596 | 3081 | | (+/-%) | -36.7% | -59.9% | 121.7% | 31.3% | 18.7% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.33 | 0.53 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 1.84 | | EBIT Margin | 11.8% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 13.5% | | 净资产收益率（ROE） | 12.0% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 12. ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 绿城中国（03900.HK） 优于大市 结算和计提节奏导致盈利承压，销售拿地仍优于行业平均 归母净利润同减近九成。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入 533.7 亿元，同比下 降 23.5%；归母净利润 2.1 亿元，同比下降 89.7%。公司收入下降的原因主 要是上下半年结转节奏分布不均匀，公司归母净利润下降的主要原因是计提 资产减值及公允价值约 20 亿元（2024 年共 49 亿元）。 销售拿地优于行业平均。2025 上半年公司实现总销售面积 535 万平方米，同 比下降 10%；实现总销售金额 1222 亿元，同比下降 3%，位居全行业 TOP2， 公司销售增速显著优于行业平均水平。在公司的操盘销售中，自投销售 803 亿元，归属公司权益金额为 539 亿元。上半年，公司首开高效，溢价凸显， 其中上海潮鸣东方整盘溢价预计 6.5 亿元，利润率较交底水平提升 7.6pct。 公司聚焦高能级城市，一、二线销售额占比高达 86%，回款率达 94%，继续 维持高位。分区域看，公司长三角区域占销售总额的 69%。 2025 上半年公司新增项目 35 个，新增建面 355 ...